More or Less
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MoreOrLess: Angelina Jolie’s 87% cancer risk 17 May 2013
As Angelina Jolie announces that an 87% cancer risk has prompted her to have a double mastectomy, Tim Harford assesses the probabilities associated with the disease. Plus, has the UK been hit by a Romanian crime wave? Also in the programme: Education Secretary Michael Gove’s use of PR surveys; and why the UK’s poor growth has not had led to the high levels of unemployment that economists would expect.
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MoreOrLess: How old is your dog? 11 May 2013
It's often said that one dog year equals seven human years. But is it true? Tim Harford and Ben Carter unveil the More or Less Dogulator. Plus, 15 distant relatives of England’s King Richard III are petitioning the High Court about where the king should be buried. Some reporting has implied that the famous 15 are almost the only descendants of Richard III who exist. But mathematician Rob Eastaway figures out how many other relatives of Richard III might actually be out there.
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MoreOrLess: How much does the EU cost the UK? Plus, dog...
Tim Harford makes sense of the numbers being used in the political battle about the UK and its membership of the EU. And, he looks at whether it’s true that more war veterans kill themselves than die in combat ; why you could well be a descendant of Richard III; and what Margaret Thatcher’s funeral really cost. Plus, is it true that one dog year equals seven human years? Tim unveils the More or Less Dogulator.
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WSMoreOrLess: The Maths of Mozart and Birds 04 May 2013
Birds + windows =? The BBC Quiz show The Unbelievable Truth reckons that more than 2 million birds die crashing into window panes every day in the US. Tim Harford finds this, well, unbelievable. Marcus du Sautoy explores the maths in Mozart's The Magic Flute; a student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper, which has been used to make the case for austerity cuts, explains how he did it.
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MoreOrLess: Birds, Mozart, austerity, Thatcher 03 May 13
Birds + windows =? The BBC Quiz show The Unbelievable Truth reckons that more than 2 million birds die crashing into window panes every day in the US. Tim Harford finds this, well, unbelievable. Marcus du Sautoy explores the maths in Mozart's The Magic Flute; a student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper, which has been used to make the case for austerity cuts, explains how he did it; and separating fact from fiction about Margaret Thatcher with a look at the numbers of her...
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MoreOrLess: Are Man Utd a one-man team? 28 April 2013
More or Less creates the Alternative Premier League, with lead scorer goals chalked off to work out whether it’s true that Van Persie’s really single-handedly won Manchester United’s the League? And would Tottenham be challenging for a Champions League spot without Gareth Bale’s goals? And how much bite has Luis Suarez’s contribution given Liverpool’s season? There are surprises, and one player really stands out as player of the season. Can you guess who it is? And, as an Italian Court...
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MoreOrLess: Austerity: a spreadsheet error? 21 April 2013
Tim Harford tells the story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper that has been used to make the case for austerity cuts. In 2010, two Harvard economists published an academic study, which showed that when government debt rises above 90% of annual economic output, growth falls significantly. As politicians tried to find answers to the global economic crisis, “Growth in a Time of Debt” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was cited by some of the key figures...
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MoreOrLess: Thatcher in numbers 13 April 2013
Baroness Margaret Thatcher, who has died aged 87, was Britain’s first female prime minister and one of the most influential political figures of the 20th Century. She was a pioneer of free market economics, helping to spread the ideas around the world. But the Iron lady was a divisive figure with passionate supporters and critics. Both hold to strong beliefs about what she did. But what does the data tell us about the many claims made about Mrs Thatcher?
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MoreOrLess: Communicating Risk 06 April 2013
It’s the fourth anniversary of the earthquake which devastated the city of L’Aquila in Italy and which led to the conviction of six scientists and an official who failed to predict the disaster. Scientists and statisticians worldwide were alarmed at the six-year sentences for manslaughter the seven accused received. It was feared the prospect of being put on trial would put off scientists from even trying to communicate risk – a very difficult business. But the risk assessors’ pendulum seems...
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MoreOrLess: That's not much gold 30 March 2013
What if a super-villain took control of the world's gold a melted it in to a cube? How big would it be? Wesley Stephenson finds out.
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MoreOrLess: Can big data save lives? 23 March 2013
With an avalanche of 2.5 quintillion bytes of data generated daily, could this be used to change our lives and does it have a darker side?
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WSMoreOrLess: Are there more black men in college or...
Only last week Ivory Toldson heard the speaker say there are more black men in prison in America than in college. ‘Here we go again’ he thought. Only the week before he had written his second article on why this statistic is not true. This week Ruth Alexander looks at where this ‘fact’ came from and why it is still being used. Also, why the opinion polls got the Kenyan elections wrong.
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WSMoreOrLess: HIV in numbers 09 March 2013
With the news that a baby has been ‘cured’ of HIV what do the numbers tell us about the epidemic. Ruth Alexander looks at the changes in the way that the disease has been measured. Also the Dow Jones hit an all-time high this week so is it party time for investors?
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WSMoreOrLess: Is the Kenyan election already decided? 02...
Kenya votes for its next President on 4th March. The opinion polls show that it is neck-and-neck between the two main candidates but an influential Kenyan political scientists has warned that the polls are wrong. Mutahi Ngunyi’s predicting a win for Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Coalition because of what he describes as ‘the tyranny of numbers’ - there are simply more registered voters from the ethnic groups that are likely to support Kenyatta than those for his rival Raila Odinga. But will...
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WSMoreOrLess: Counting Catholics 23 Feb 2013
This week Tim Harford asks how the figure of 1.2 billion Catholics world-wide is calculated. He also tests the claims of the controversial video, 'Muslim Demographics' shown at the Vatican by the Ghanaian Papal candidate Cardinal Peter Turkson.
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WSMoreOrLess: How many people support Manchester United?...
This week Ruth Alexander looks at Manchester United versus Real Madrid in the last 16 of the Champions League. Real Manager Jose Mourinho says this was the match the world has been waiting to see. It pitched two of Europes biggest clubs against each other in what is a supposed to be a money spinner for broadcasters and sponsors alike. But how do we know how big the interest is? Manchester United claim 650 million fans worldwide, but how can we know? Nick Harris of SportingIntelligence.com...
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WSMoreOrLess: The end of the Penny 09 Feb 2013
Canada has stopped distributing its smallest coin –the one cent or the penny. This week Ruth Alexander looks at why some countries get rid of their smallest coins and some just cannot part with them. Also which country has the coin with the smallest monetary value?
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WSMoreOrLess: A case of statistical significance in...
This week Ruth Alexander looks at the extraordinary case of Andreas Georgiou the head of the Greek statistics agency, Elstat. He is facing criminal charges for what amounts to statistical treason. It is a story that goes to the heart of the Greek debt crisis, that includes extreme office politics, alleged e-mail hacking and a statistician facing at least five years in prison. We speak to Economists Miranda Xafa and Professor Yanis Vourafafkis as well as Syriza MP Dimitris Tsoukalas. Also: do...
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MoreOrLess: Fat or Fiction 26 Jan 2013
A ‘new’ BMI calculation has been proposed by Oxford Mathematician Professor Nick Trefethen but does it really address the problem with a calculation that is over a century old. Body Mass Index was first calculated over 150 years ago and in recent years has become controversial for its imprecise nature. Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson look at how it has developed and what it really tells us, if anything, about our health.
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WS MoreOrLess: Indian Farmer Suicides 19 Jan 2013
This week Ruth Alexander is looking at farmer suicides in India. But is it any more prevalent than in any other area of Indian society? Also what is the history behind the Lakh and the Crore in South Asia? It confused one contributor on the farmer suicide story and caused him to get the figures wrong by a factor of 10.
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MoreOrLess: Pop up economics - 16 Jan 2013
Episode 1 of Tim Harford's new series, Pop Up Economics, in which he tells a live audience short stories about fascinating people and ideas in economics.
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MoreOrLess: Food waste and Scrabble 12 Jan 2013
Reports this week suggest that we are wasting 50 per cent of our food globally. It comes from a study by the Institute of Mechanical Engineers in the UK. Ruth Alexander discovers why this number is out of date and is likely to be much lower than half. Also are the values on Scrabble tiles correct? They were first assigned in the 1930s. With our changing language do we need to reassess the values. We speak to Joshua Lewis, a post-doctoral researcher at the University of California, San Diego...
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WSMoreOrLess: The Parable of the Ox 04 Jan 2013
What does a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system? We find out in the Parable of the Ox written by John Kay of the Financial Times. The tale is told with the help of economics writer James Surowiecki as well as John Kay himself. It also features a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.
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MoreOrLess: The Parable of the Ox 04 Jan 2013
What does a 'guess the weight of the ox' competition tells us about a bloated and dysfunctional financial system? We find out in the Parable of the Ox written by John Kay of the Financial Times. The tale is told with the help of economics writer James Surowiecki as well as John Kay himself. It also features a brand new composition from the New Radiophonic Workshop.
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WSMoreOrLess: Numbers of 2012 29 Dec 2012
A special review of the year through the interesting, informative and idiosyncratic numbers of 2012.
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MoreOrLess: Numbers of 2012 28 Dec 2012
A guide to 2012 in numbers - the most informative, interesting and idiosyncratic statistics of the year discussed by More or Less interviewees.
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WSMoreOrLess: Gun Statistics 21 Dec 2012
Tim Harford investigates the numbers in the debate on firearms deaths, and discovers the mathematics of juggling. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Fact-checking US gun crime statistics 21 Dec...
Tim Harford investigates gun crime statistics in the US. Plus, why death is not always the one hard fact that’s hard to fudge; the average age of first-time buyers; whether chocolate makes you clever; the statistical paradox of road collisions caused by deer; and the maths of juggling. Producer Ruth Alexander
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WS MoreOrLess: What is "rare"? 15 Dec 2012
This week: What is ‘rare’? When we say something is rare what do we mean? Lightning strikes which typically kill three people a year in the UK are often described as rare but how do we square that with a condition like motor neurone disease which is also described as rare yet kills 1500 people a year in the UK. Also we speak to Nassim Taleb about his book Anti-fragile.
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MoreOrLess: The Census and what does 'rare' mean? 14 Dec...
Why was the estimate, in 2003, for Eastern Europeans coming to the UK so wrong? Which is better when communicating information words or numbers? Nassim Taleb explains anti-fragility And we'll debunk the oft quoted 'you're never more than 6ft from a rat'
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World Service: Africa GDP & Royal twins 08 Dec 2012
Where does Nigeria’s plan to revise its GDP leave our understanding of growth in Sub-saharan Africa? And what is the chance of the Duchess of Cambridge having twins given she has severe morning sickness.
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Radio 4: Royal Twins & Autumn Statement 07 Dec 2012
In light of the Royal pregnancy Tim Harford asks what severe morning sickness tells us about the chances of having twins. Yan Wong helps him look at the figures. We disentangle the Chancellor' Autumn Statement and ask: where is the economy really at? As Nigeria prepares to revise its GDP statistics with an expected jump of 40-60%, we ask how reliable are African GDP statistics? Another Daily Telegraph headline comes under scrutiny. And we return to our Lego tower and look at how Lego can be...
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More or Less: How reliable is Kevin Pietersen? 01 Dec...
Kevin Pietersen has been widely praised as one of the best England batsmen of the current era and possibly of all time. But in the first test match he only scored 19. So can England really not do without him? Also why is Zero an even number?
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More or Less: Opinion polling, Kevin Pietersen, and...
On More or Less this week Tim Harford looks at three polls carried out to gauge the public’s opinion on press regulation gave vastly different answers despite being carried out by the same polling company. Tim talks to Peter Kellner, President of online polling company YouGov. Would you send Kevin Pietersen out to bat if your life depended on him scoring a century? Have two thirds of millionaires really left the country as claimed by the Daily Telegraph this week? What percentage of drinks...
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Fergie Time 24 Nov 2012
This is the first in the new series of the programme. There’s a well-established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?
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Ash Die Back and Fergie Time 23 Nov 2012
This is the first in the new series of the programme. Tim Harford has been busy felling some ash tree statistics. He asks whether the UK could lose 30% of our woodland trees and did the ash die back disease really kill 90% of ash trees in Denmark? Plus, there’s a well established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top...
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MoreOrLess: Brain Food and Bacteria: 19 Nov 2012
There's not an obvious link between chocolate and Nobel prizes, but this did not stop news outlets around the world reporting the amount of chocolate a country consumes influences the number of Nobel prizes they will win. In many cases the scientific study was reported without question or comment. Ruth Alexander asks what this story tells us about the way the media reports scientific studies, and why the correlation between the two might be so strong. Also – it's often said that chopping...
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MoreOrLess: Voodoo polling? Predicting the US election:...
This week Ruth Alexander looks at the other winner the US elections. Blogger and pioneer of aggregated polling, Nate Silver, predicted the outcome of the vote in every state one better than 2008. Others who have tried similar methods have also done well. Is this the dawn of a new era of poll prediction or just luck? Also, what effect did Hurricane Sandy have on death rates in places it hit and how did they differ from a normal day.
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MoreOrLess: Is America’s conviction rate really 99.5%?...
Conrad Black has claimed that 99.5% of prosecution cases in America end up in convictions. Is it really this high? We try to estimate how this compares to the number of convictions in other parts of the world.
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MoreOrLess: Predicting L'Aquila Earthquake: is it right...
This week six scientists and one ex-government official were sentenced to prison for multiple manslaughter following the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Part of the case against them was the falsely reassuring comments they made before the earthquake struck. Will this deter scientists from giving advice in the future?
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MoreOrLess: Life-saving economics 20 Oct 2012
Professor Al Roth tells Tim Harford about the work for which he has just been awarded the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
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MoreOrLess: Predicting the global population 12 Oct 2012
Predicting the global population: does anyone really know what’s going to happen?
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MoreOrLess: Predicting the Presidency 06 Oct 2012
Nate Silver tells us who will win the 2012 US election - and how he knows.
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MoreOrLess: Plenty more fish in the sea? 29 Sep 2012
Only 100 cod are left in the North Sea according to newspapers. Is this the most wrong headline in More or Less history?
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MoreOrLess: Factchecking America 21 Sep 2012
US Presidential Election factchecked. Is Mitt Romney right to say that 47% of Americans pay no tax? And how many jobs has President Obama really created?
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MoreOrLess: Investigating crime statistics 14 Sep 2012
Ruth Alexander investigates Sweden's high rape rate, and finds out which countries are the surprise leaders of the world kidnap league. Plus, who went home from the London 2012 Games with more medals – Olympians or Paralympians? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service
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MoreOrLess: Where are the Paralympics Medals? 08 Sep 2012
Why did the USA top the gold medals league in the Olympics, but not the Paralympics? Ruth Alexander examines the performance numbers of the London 2012 Paralympic Games and discovers which countries are punching above their weight, and which below. And Yan Wong tries to calculate how many opening bars are possible in music. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: How to explain infinity to a 4-year-old 01...
‘What’s the number before infinity?’ asks Claudia, aged 4. We challenge Johnny Ball, legendary British TV presenter, to explain. And in celebration of the voice of Sesame Street’s Count von Count, Jerry Nelson, who’s died aged 78, there’s another chance to hear our 2009 interview with the Count, in which he revealed his favourite number: 34,969. Presented by Ruth Alexander, this programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Are African leaders more likely to die in...
The Prime Minister of Ethiopia is the fourth African premier to die this year alone. Are African leaders more likely to die in office, than their counterparts elsewhere? Also: does marriage make economic sense?
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MoreOrLess:Levelling the statistical playing field 20...
Given that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.
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MoreOrLess: The great playing field sell off? 17 Aug 2012
Given that some countries are richer than others, and some have larger populations, what should the Olympic medal tally really have looked like? Also: numbers help us understand the world. But for Daniel Tammet, author of “Thinking in Numbers". They don't just help him to understand the world - but to be a part of it.
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MoreOrLess: How to lose money - fast!
Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?
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MoreOrLess: How to lose money - fast!
Last week Knight Capital lost a lot of money very quickly. It was the latest chapter in the story of something called ‘high frequency trading’. Investors have always valued being the first with the news. But high frequency trading is different: algorithms execute automatic trades, conducted by computers, at astonishing speeds. We ask: is the rapid growth of high frequency trading progress, or – as some think – a threat to the stability of the entire financial system?
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MoreOrLess: How extraordinary is Ye Shiwen? WS 03 Aug...
There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.
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MoreOrLess: How extraordinary is Ye Shiwen? 03 Aug 2012
There was controversy this week after Ye Shiwen, a young Chinese swimmer, won the 400 metre individual medley in fine style. A US swimming coach called the performance "disturbing", implying that she may have cheated. More or Less investigates the numbers and finds there's no statistical smoking gun.
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MoreOrLess: Gun laws and gold medals (WS) 28 July 2012
Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not surprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?
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MoreOrLess: Gun laws and gold medals 27 July 2012
Last week's mass-shooting at a cinema in Colorado has - not suprisingly - intensified America's bitter and long-running argument with itself about gun control. The argument is political and highly partisan. But it is also practical: would tighter gun laws actually lead to fewer gun deaths? You might think it's obvious that they would. But it seems the evidence isn't quite that clear. Also: how have Olympians changed in the last century?
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MoreOrLess: Has clamping down on drugs made the Tour de...
The Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?
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MoreOrLess: Has clamping down on drugs made the Tour de...
The Tour de France, we are told, has finally cleaned up its act and clamped down on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. But if it has, should we expect today’s drug-free riders to be slower than their drug-fuelled forebears? Can statistics tell us whether the Tour de France really is cleaner than it was? Also in the programme: does when you retire influence when you die?
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MoreOrLess:Who are the Libor losers? 13.07.12
How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? And we investigate the claim made by a leading charity that a million British children are "starving".
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More or Less: Who are the Libor losers? (WS) 13 July 2012
How much damage did messing with Libor really do to the financial system? After all, most financial trades are two way bets – and for every winner, there is a loser.
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MoreOrLess: Drinks and drugs capital of the world? (WS)...
Do residents of the tiny micronesian island of Palau really smoke more cannabis, and drink more beer, than anyone else?
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MoreOrLess: Hit movies and killer birthdays (WS) 29 June...
What is the highest-earning film ever if you adjust for inflation? And are birthdays killing us?
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MoreOrLess: (WS) Weight of the world 23 JUN 12
How fat could the global population become? Plus, Angela Saini considers whether statistics could settle the disputed result of the world title fight between boxers Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess (WS) Chance encounters 15.06.12
Is the likelihood of bumping into your boss on holiday greater than you think? Angela Saini and the More or Less team assess the probabilities of some of life's great coincidences. This edition of More or Less was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Interview with Daniel Kahneman 08.06.12
Tim Harford interviews Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics. The author of Thinking, Fast and Slow describes the common mistakes people make with statistics.
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MoreOrLess: Counting images of The Queen. (WS) 01 June 12
How many images of Queen Elizabeth II have ever been created? And is Facebook really worth more than twice as much as every company on the Nigerian Stock Exchange?
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MoreOrLess: Would firing staff 'at will' work? (R4) 25...
Is there any evidence to support the Beecroft Review's recommended changes to employment law? Plus: hard-working Greeks, infidelity, and Ben Goldacre on publication bias.
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MoreOrLess: The maths of infidelity (WS) 25 May 12
It’s a very commonly-held belief that men are less faithful than women But it takes two to tango. So can this be mathematically possible? And we answer a cry for help from an Australian listener who wants to be “a bit more average”.
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MoreOrLess: Where are the world hardest workers? (WS) 18...
Earlier in the year we found out that Greeks put in more working hours than Germans. But the Germans are more efficient. So that got us thinking: who works the longest hours in the world?
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MoreOrLess: Troubled families and unneutered cats. (R4)...
Troubled families, nursing numbers and the mathematical consequences of unneutered cats.
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MoreOrLess: Trouble on the Greek railways (WS) 11 May 12
Would it be cheaper to send every Greek rail passenger by taxi instead? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Are CEOs worth it? (R4) 11 May 12
Executive pay, chess and trouble on the Greek railway.
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MoreOrLess: A grand economic experiment? (WS) 04 May 12
Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment being played out between Europe, trying to cut its way out of trouble, and the United States, trying to spend its way to redemption? Plus, we investigate the height of North Koreans. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Austerity, border queues and bank holidays...
Are we witnessing a grand economic experiment playing out between Britain and the United States? How long have travellers been waiting to get through immigration at Heathrow? Plus, are you going to destroy the economy this bank holiday weekend?
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MoreOrLess: The formula that changed the world 27 Apr 12
The Midas Formula - In this week's More or Less: The story of Black-Scholes, the equation that transformed Wall Street – and the arguments over whether it made the world a better place, or helped cause the financial mess we have all been dealing with for the past five years. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: The formula that changed the world 27 Apr 12
Rain and drought in numbers, the formula which changed Wall Street and then the world forever - and why Conservative MPs used to be taller than their Labour counterparts.
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MoreOrLess: 20 Apr 12
Is the rate of species extinction exaggerated - or even unknowable? Producer: Richard Knight This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: 20 Apr 12
We investigate the height of North Koreans, the width of police officers and rate of species extinction. Producer: Richard Knight
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MoreOrLess: Eurostats - True or False? 13 Apr 12
Are there really more Porsche Cayenne owners in Greece than taxpayers earning over 50,000 euros? Can there really be 30,000 chauffeur driven cars for the exclusive use of Italian politicians? Would it really be cheaper to send everyone by taxi than train in Greece and is youth unemployment in Spain really 50%? Ruth Alexander and Wesley Stephenson take a very close look at some widely reported Eurostats to see whether they stand up to scrutiny for out this week's More or Less. This programme...
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MoreOrLess: Stamp prices and the first maths book 06 Apr...
The Royal Mail says UK stamp prices are still among the best value in Europe, despite an imminent steep price rise. Tim Harford finds out whether this is true, and compares the price of postal services around the world. Plus, he finds out how, after being invented by Indian mathematicians, modern numbers became established in the ancient Arab world and then journeyed on to Europe in what was essentially the first maths textbook ever written, "Liber Abaci". Its author was Leonardo of Pisa,...
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MoreOrLess: Do big football clubs win more penalties? 30...
Do Manchester United and other leading clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona benefit from biased refereeing decisions when they play in front of their home crowd? It’s a widely-held view, but Tim Harford challenges it with a look at the penalty statistics. Plus, he meets Hans Rosling of Gapminder at the Skoll World Forum: if you want to understand the world you’re living in, and how it will be different to the world your children and grandchildren will live in, listen to this interview. This...
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MoreOrLess: What is the world average salary? 23 Mar 12
If there were perfect income equality worldwide, and everybody earned the same amount of money, how much would they earn? And what is the average employee wage across the world? Tim Harford answers both these questions. Plus, he attempts to rank the world’s top military forces. This edition of the programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Red meat death risk? 16 Mar 12
Eating an extra portion of red meat every day is associated with an increased risk of death, says a new study. But what does this mean? A risk expert works it out for Tim Harford. Plus, which are the world’s largest employers? This edition of More or less was broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreorLess: Is Apple worth more than Poland? 09 Mar 2012
Tim Harford explains why the technology giant Apple is not bigger than Poland, as media reports have claimed. And he scrutinises the claim that the Millennium Development Goal on safe drinking water has been achieved ahead of schedule. The World Health Organisation, which along with Unicef announced that the target had been met, concedes that the numbers are not actually that certain. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Less than a dollar a day 02 Mar 12
Tim Harford assesses how global poverty is measured, as the World Bank releases the latest figures on the number of people living on less than a dollar a day. What progress has been made, and how useful a benchmark is this “dollar a day” global poverty line? This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Syria poll and Europe’s work hours 24 Feb 12
Fifty-five per cent of Syrians do not think their leader President Assad should resign, according to media reports of an opinion poll. It’s a striking number, given the bloody violence that has broken out in Syria. But Tim Harford discovers that, on closer inspection, the statistic is not what it seems. Plus, which European country works the longest hours? You might be surprised. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World service.
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MoreOrLess: Cybermetrics and Groundhog Day 17 Feb 12
Can you measure your popularity – or that of anyone or anything – by the number of results that an internet search generates? Tim Harford points the finger at lazy journalists. Plus, a professor of economics assesses the accuracy of a groundhog’s weather forecasts, made famous by the Hollywood film Groundhog Day. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World Service.
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MoreOrLess: Measuring famine 10 Feb 12
How do you measure a famine? Following the UN’s recent announcement that famine conditions have ended in Somalia, More or Less explores what the definition of a famine is – and how definite a definition it is. Tim Harford hears from Grainne Moloney, head of the UN’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit and Professor Stephen Devereux from the Institute of Development Studies. Also in the programme: Muhammed Ali’s boxing trainer, Angelo Dundee, was arguably one of sport’s greatest...
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MoreOrLess: More alive than dead? 03 Feb 12
Tim Harford investigates one of the most popular questions from More or Less listeners: “Are there more people alive today than have ever lived?” It is a zombie statistic that every time it is laid to rest it rises again. He also looks at whether science fiction writer Arthur C Clarke was right when he suggested that behind every living person are 30 ghosts. He also investigates the strange story of Michelle Obama’s shopping trip to a lingerie store in New York. Can she really have spent...
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MoreOrLess: Sizing up cities 27 Jan 2012
Which are the world’s biggest cities, and what are their populations? Two simple questions that we discover are surprisingly difficult to answer. Plus, has the world got heavier or lighter since the industrial revolution? It’s a question posed by a More or Less listener that got us wondering, too. Dr Chris Smith, part of a group of Cambridge University researchers, known as the Naked Scientists, reckons he’s worked out the answer. This programme was originally broadcast on the BBC World...
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MoreOrLess: Climate bet; Africa Cup of Nations 20 Jan...
A four-year bet about global warming between two scientists is settled. In 2008, after there had been no new record for the global average temperature set since 1998, David Whitehouse and James Annan disagreed over whether there would be a new record by 2011. As the UK Meteorological Office publishes the figures for the past year, presenter Tim Harford brings the two scientists together. Who has won, and does the victory tell us anything about global warming? Plus, Peter Stott from the Met...
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MoreOrLess: Chavez's cancer claims 14 Jan 12
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela thinks the US may have developed a secret technology to give him and other Latin American leaders cancer. He said the fact that several presidents have had cancer is "difficult to explain using the law of probabilities". Is he right? Tim Harford speaks to Dr Eduardo Cazap, president of the Union of International Cancer Control. Plus, it is often said that there are more Malawian doctors in the British city of Manchester than there are in Malawi. Can this be...
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MoreOrLess: High speed rail 13 Jan 12
High Speed rail - Tim Harford speaks to railway consultant Chris Stokes and Alison Munro from HS2 Ltd. He investigates the different measures of the rise in executive pay with Steve Tatton from Income Data Services and Sarah Wilson from research group Manifest. And resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse and Wesley Stephenson looks behind the figures for youth unemployment in Spain.
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MoreOrLess: Using statistics in court 06 Jan 12
Tim Harford tackles the use of statistics in court, the average rise in rail fares, infinity and resolves another marital dispute about probability.
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MoreOrLess: 2011 in numbers 30 Dec 11
A guide to interesting, informative or just plain idiosyncratic numbers of the year. Plus, does probability really exist? Contributors: David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University; Owen Spottiswoode, Fullfact.org; Tracey Brown from Sense about Science; Jil Matheson, UK Statistics Authority; George Monbiot; Sir Mark Walport, Director of the Wellcome Trust; Money Box presenter Paul Lewis; Sports Statistician, Robert Mastrodomenico; Dr Linda Yeuh...
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MoreOrLess: Who are the 1% and the 99%? 23 DEC 11
Tim Harford on income inequality in the UK, and elsewhere. He speaks to Professor Sir Tony Atkinson of Oxford University; Stewart Lansley, author of 'The Cost of Inequality'; and Professor Donald Boudreaux of George Mason University. Also, David Spiegelhalter, the Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at Cambridge University explains why he took on what could be his riskiest venture to date - appearing on BBC One's Winter Wipeout. Plus, the magic of maths with magician and...
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MoreOrLess: Higgs boson statistics 16 Dec 11
In the week scientists at the Large Hadron Collider announced that the most coveted prize in particle physics - the Higgs boson - may have been found, Tim Harford hears that the statistical significance is being mis-reported. Plus, the difficulties of cornering a market (especially when the commodity is a 1980s plastic doll). And, Tim Harford talks to author Keith Devlin about how Fibonacci revolutionised trade by introducing medieval businessmen to simple arithmetic.
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MoreOrLess: Supermarket price wars 09 Dec 12
Tim Harford on National Literacy Trust figures and the maths of supermarket price wars. Plus, he continues to scrutinise the popular statistics of the Eurozone crisis - do Italian tax payers really shell out 2 billion euros a year for their politicians to be chauffeured around? And, what are the odds of cracking six double-yolk eggs in a row?
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MoreOrLess: Pensions, and the Eurozone crisis.
In the week of a nationwide strike over pension changes, Tim Harford explains how the government can make public sector pensions sound generous, at the same time the unions can make them sound small. And he finds out why a Greek national statistician is under suspicion of committing crimes against numbers. Plus, is it really true that there are more Porsche Cayenne owners than tax payers declaring an income of more than 55,000 euros in Greece? Also, are affordable homes affordable? And can...
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MoreOrLess: Brain Culture Part 3, 29 Nov 2011
In a change to our usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. The former Number 10 strategy head looks at politics and mind control, asking if new knowledge about the human brain will allow us to make better choices or leave us open to ever more manipulation .
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MoreOrLess: Brain Culture Part 2, 22 Nov 2011
In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor's "Brain Culture" series. Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture” continues. The former Number 10 head of strategy asks whether Britain’s education system will be changed by new insights into how human brains learn and retain knowledge.
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MoreOrLess: Brain Culture Part 1, 15 Nov 2011
In a change to the usual format, we are podcasting Matthew Taylor’s series “Brain Culture”. He explores how neuroscience will change society, asking how the justice system will change now that we can scan criminal brains.
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MoreOrLess: Government waste 09 Sep 11
In More or Less this week: Government waste, a logic puzzle, the statistics of spying, Olympic economics and the Janitor problem.
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MoreOrLess: A Euro Debt Odyssey: 02 Sep 2011
In this week's More or Less: a Euro debt odyssey, the placebo effect and 70 years of social surveys.
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MoreOrLess: Scottish Independence: 26 Aug 2011
On this week's More or Less: Scottish independence, mobile phones and cancer, and is Tendulkar the greatest sportsman?
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MoreOrLess: Is salt bad for you? 19 Aug 2011
More or Less has the latest on salt, 'zero tolerance' policing, and how to predict the adult height of growing children.
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MoreOrLess: The maths of rioting: 12 Aug 2011
In More or Less this week: riots, debt, disability benefit and when to buy a lotto ticket.
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MoreOrLess: US debt: 05 Aug 2011
Tim Harford and the More or Less team unpick more numbers in the news. This week: US debt, NHS funding and the "27 club".
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MoreOrLess: Public Sector Pay: 13 May 2011
Investigating the public sector pay premium, statins and the 'decline effect'.
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MoreOrLess: Climate Refugees: 8 May 2011
More or Less looks at child poverty, climate refugees and Sir Henry Cooper's greatest moment.
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MoreOrLess: Wedding Stats: 29 April 2011
In More or Less this week: a cornucopia of wedding-related numbers. And AV explained.
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MoreOrLess: How useful is GDP? 22 Apr 2011
Tim Harford and team look at GDP, school standards and the results of 'The Other Census'.
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MoreOrLess: Tuition fees: 15 April 2010
Tim Harford and the team examine examine tuition fees, drugs testing and inflation.
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MoreOrLess: Youth Unemployment: 08 Apr 2011
In More or Less this week: youth unemployment, Trumpton and social mobility.
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MoreOrLess: Small spending cuts? 01 Apr 11
Tim Harford is back with a new series of More or Less, and the numbers behind the news. Are the cuts "small"? And we introduce "The Other Census".
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MoreOrLess: The Story of Economics 'Monsters': 30 Mar 11
In this three-part series Michael Blastland lays out the history of economic ideas to understand why economics goes wrong and whether it can ever go entirely right. In the third and final programme, 'Monsters', Michael investigates another view of economics: that it is the story of people, how they think and behave.
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MoreOrLess: The Story of Economics 'Cogs': 23 Mar 2011
'More or Less' creator Michael Blastland goes to Chicago to explore a machine-like view of the economy in the second part of 'The Story of Economics'.
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MoreOrLess: The Story of Economics 'Gods': 16 Mar 2011
More or Less creator Michael Blastland lays out the history of economic ideas to understand why economics goes wrong and whether it can ever go entirely right. In the first programme of a three part series, Michael travels to Athens and the site of Aristotle's Lyceum - where economics as a discipline began.
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MoreOrLess: Health check 21 Jan 11
The Government says Britain's health care standards have fallen behind those of our European neighbours. And World Health Organisation figures support his claim. But do those numbers tell the whole story?
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MoreOrLess: Street grooming 14 Jan 11
We look at street grooming, examine the new bank taxes, revisit Ambridge in the wake of Loxleygate and ask just how many guys there are named Mo(hammed).
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MoreOrLess: Big numbers 07 Jan 11
More or Less examines this week's claims and counter-claims about VAT, exposes some seriously sloppy reporting and - finally - reveals the truth about Jack the "psychic" monkey.
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MoreOrLess: 2010 in numbers 31 Dec 10
Tim Harford and the More or Less team explore 2010 in numbers. Happy New Year to all our listeners.
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MoreOrLess: What the Dickens? 24 Dec 10
Boom. Bust. Bah humbug. Tim Harford narrates 'A More or Less Christmas Carol' in which British Bank plc boss Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by the ghosts of banking past, present and future. Will he heed their warnings?
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MoreOrLess: Council of despair 17 Dec 10
Local government budgets are being cut. More or Less looks at how the pie is sliced and finds everything depends on Wokingham (yes, really). Plus: we take a look at inflation and consult the magic More or Less monkey.
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MoreOrLess: Degrees of Debt: 10 Dec 2010
We look at the numbers behind the increase in the cap on undergraduate tuition fees in England. Are the changes fair and progressive? Are they dropping future students into a deep hole of debt? Or are they both?
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MoreOrLess: Gay Britain 01 Oct 10
Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine the micromort measure of risk and official statistics on sexual identity.
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MoreOrLess: How welfare works 24 Sep 10
Tim Harford and the More or Less team examine more numbers in the news. This week: Claiming benefits has been described by the Chancellor as - for some - a "lifestyle choice". What does the evidence tell us about how incentives work in the welfare system?; The numbers of some of Britain's best-loved birds are declining. Fast. Many think cats are to blame. Are they right?; Why the Prime Minister's salary has become a convenient unit of measurement; And we bring you the results of our...
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MoreOrLess: Who earns more? 17 Sep 2010
Who earns more: private or public employees? And are your trousers flattering you?
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MoreOrLess: Back to school: 10 Sep 2010
More or Less looks at how maths is taught in schools today and it asks what the population of the world be if WWI had never happened.
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MoreOrLess: 03 Sep 2010
How reliable are life expectancy figures? Can cycling ever be safer than driving? And, what can maths tell us about guerilla insurgencies?
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