The Predictioneer's Game - Using the Logic of Brazen Self-interest to See and Shape the Future-logo

The Predictioneer's Game - Using the Logic of Brazen Self-interest to See and Shape the Future

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (st

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (st
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Description:

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts. Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban). But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (st

Language:

English

Narrators:

Sean Runnette

Length:

9h 34m


Chapters

Chapter 1
Chapter 1

00:17


Chapter 2
Chapter 2

07:36


Chapter 3
Chapter 3

07:55


Chapter 4
Chapter 4

07:48


Chapter 5
Chapter 5

07:47


Chapter 6
Chapter 6

04:16


Chapter 7
Chapter 7

07:33


Chapter 8
Chapter 8

09:58


Chapter 9
Chapter 9

07:37


Chapter 10
Chapter 10

05:47


Chapter 11
Chapter 11

05:20


Chapter 12
Chapter 12

07:59


Chapter 13
Chapter 13

09:46


Chapter 14
Chapter 14

06:18


Chapter 15
Chapter 15

05:33


Chapter 16
Chapter 16

05:56


Chapter 17
Chapter 17

06:40


Chapter 18
Chapter 18

07:14


Chapter 19
Chapter 19

05:51


Chapter 20
Chapter 20

07:01


Chapter 21
Chapter 21

05:28


Chapter 22
Chapter 22

05:01


Chapter 23
Chapter 23

05:11


Chapter 24
Chapter 24

07:30


Chapter 25
Chapter 25

07:22


Chapter 26
Chapter 26

07:36


Chapter 27
Chapter 27

07:42


Chapter 28
Chapter 28

05:10


Chapter 29
Chapter 29

06:08


Chapter 30
Chapter 30

05:05


Chapter 31
Chapter 31

06:26


Chapter 32
Chapter 32

07:25


Chapter 33
Chapter 33

08:46


Chapter 34
Chapter 34

06:53


Chapter 35
Chapter 35

06:05


Chapter 36
Chapter 36

05:10


Chapter 37
Chapter 37

09:27


Chapter 38
Chapter 38

06:53


Chapter 39
Chapter 39

05:55


Chapter 40
Chapter 40

07:03


Chapter 41
Chapter 41

06:49


Chapter 42
Chapter 42

05:10


Chapter 43
Chapter 43

06:14


Chapter 44
Chapter 44

06:35


Chapter 45
Chapter 45

08:15


Chapter 46
Chapter 46

05:57


Chapter 47
Chapter 47

04:54


Chapter 48
Chapter 48

06:31


Chapter 49
Chapter 49

07:47


Chapter 50
Chapter 50

05:35


Chapter 51
Chapter 51

08:11


Chapter 52
Chapter 52

07:10


Chapter 53
Chapter 53

05:03


Chapter 54
Chapter 54

06:38


Chapter 55
Chapter 55

06:16


Chapter 56
Chapter 56

06:20


Chapter 57
Chapter 57

08:46


Chapter 58
Chapter 58

07:26


Chapter 59
Chapter 59

09:00


Chapter 60
Chapter 60

06:40


Chapter 61
Chapter 61

07:46


Chapter 62
Chapter 62

08:26


Chapter 63
Chapter 63

06:48


Chapter 64
Chapter 64

06:34


Chapter 65
Chapter 65

05:21


Chapter 66
Chapter 66

06:28


Chapter 67
Chapter 67

06:28


Chapter 68
Chapter 68

04:33


Chapter 69
Chapter 69

06:24


Chapter 70
Chapter 70

08:47


Chapter 71
Chapter 71

07:53


Chapter 72
Chapter 72

06:28


Chapter 73
Chapter 73

04:46


Chapter 74
Chapter 74

06:42


Chapter 75
Chapter 75

04:25


Chapter 76
Chapter 76

05:10


Chapter 77
Chapter 77

05:38


Chapter 78
Chapter 78

06:17


Chapter 79
Chapter 79

07:49


Chapter 80
Chapter 80

07:14


Chapter 81
Chapter 81

06:44


Chapter 82
Chapter 82

07:39


Chapter 83
Chapter 83

07:50


Chapter 84
Chapter 84

07:42


Chapter 85
Chapter 85

06:47


Chapter 86
Chapter 86

05:57


Chapter 87
Chapter 87

00:37