The Focus Group Podcast

We've got (Thanksgiving) leftover focus group sound we didn't get to last week. Sarah's best friend Jonathan V. Last makes his vengeful return to the show to work through his thoughts (and the voters' thoughts) on the 2024 election, and he and Sarah parry over just how serious this country is anymore. It gets spicy.

The Focus Group Podcast is back for a post-election autopsy. We're starting with a deep dive on how Donald Trump's newest voters found Kamala Harris and the Democrats lacking. Astead Herndon, host of The New York Times podcast The Run-Up joins Sarah to write a first draft of how we got here. show notes The Run-Up: The Democrats' Plan to Get Skeptics on Their Side The Run-Up: Kamala Harris on Kamala Harris The Bulwark's Bleak Friday Sale

The polls are close enough that this election could go either way. But whatever happens, the focus groups over the last year-plus have given some clues about what's motivating the swing voters voting for Trump, and those voting for Harris. Atlantic senior editor Ron Brownstein joins Sarah to listen to voters and what the Trump and Harris coalitions might look like. show notes By Ron Brownstein: The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less The Improbable Coalition That Is Harris’s Best Hope

There's one thing Republican and Democratic strategists all agree on right now: no state is more likely to decide this election than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania-based POLITICO reporter Holly Otterbein joins Sarah to break down Pennsylvania's shift to the right in recent years, and why Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is finding himself in a surprisingly close race. Show Notes: Spotlight PA: Democrats in Pa. approach 2024 election with slimmest voter registration advantage in decades By Holly Otterbein: Harris ramps up her appeals to Republican voters in the Philly suburbs ‘Pennsylvania is such a mess’: Inside Team Harris’ unusual levels of finger-pointing Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania

The Republican establishment — and many Republican voters in our focus groups — think Ron DeSantis is the answer to their prayers that they can win in 2024. But Donald Trump has a say in this matter, and he's already offering up an early taste of the kind of attacks he's planning on DeSantis. Heads-up: Those attacks are likely to go lower. What are DeSantis' vulnerabilities as a candidate? Tara Palmeri of Puck News joins Sarah to listen to the focus groups and share some of her reporting from the Trump and DeSantis camps. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ready or not, it looks like Joe Biden is running for re-election. Our swing voters liked his State of the Union speech this week, but they've got concerns under the surface. Peter Baker, Chief White Correspondent for The New York Times, joins Sarah to listen to Trump-to-Biden voters and make a broader assessment of the Biden administration's political standing. show notes: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/06/us/politics/kamala-harris-vice-presidenct-legacy.html Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thefocusgroup.thebulwark.com The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta joins Sarah to discuss whether Ohio is really more Trump+8 than R+8 — and to debate Tim Ryan's chances against J.D. Vance. Meanwhile, in Michigan's governor's race, Gretchen Whitmer hits Tudor Dixon on her biggest vulnerability — abortion — while facing lingering resentment over her Covid response.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thefocusgroup.thebulwark.com The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta joins Sarah to discuss whether Ohio is really more Trump+8 than R+8 — and to debate Tim Ryan's chances against J.D. Vance. Meanwhile, in Michigan's governor's race, Gretchen Whitmer hits Tudor Dixon on her biggest vulnerability — abortion — while facing lingering resentment over her Covid response. The Focus Group is now exclusively for Bulwark+ members. Get this episode...

On this week's episode, we're sharing a director's cut of a recent focus group, featuring swing state suburban women. These voters from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia backed Trump in 2016, but flipped in 2020. Hear what they have to say about the big races in their states, their desire for things to be "normal" again, and how the end of Roe is influencing their vote this November. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

As primary season winds down, Democrats are gaining ground in what was supposed to be a wave year for Republicans. Tim Miller joins Sarah to discuss the anti-abortion extremists endorsed by Trump, how Democrats are making Dobbs a game-changer, and the weirdo theory of politics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Florida is the center of Republican politics these days — and it's getting redder all the time. Trump lives there, and his political understudy is the governor. Marc Caputo of NBC News — the best Florida Man in the political press corps — joins Sarah to listen to a group of Florida reverse flipper voters (not Trump 2016/ yes Trump 2020). They also discuss Trump, DeSantis, 2024, and how the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago could impact it all. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit...

Trump is trying to end Lisa Murkowski's Senate career, but Alaska's new ranked choice voting may well save her. Plus, focus group participants keep bringing up abortion, and another Alaskan, Sarah Palin, is attempting a political comeback. Bill Kristol joins Sarah this week — and yes, he talks about his "wishful thinking" in 2008. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Wisconsinites are embarrassed to have Ron Johnson as their senator, but does that mean progressive Mandela Barnes has a good shot at the seat? Buckle up, the matchup promises to be one of the dirtiest campaigns of the midterms. Plus, another chapter in the Trump-Pence proxy war for a governor's mansion. Charlie Sykes joins Sarah for this week's episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

MAGA conspiracy theorist Kari Lake is poised to win her GOP primary, and has a good shot at becoming the governor of Arizona. Plus, impeachment voter Peter Meijer fends off a primary challenge, as a crazy cast of Michigan Republicans attempt to take down Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. The Atlantic's — and Michigan's own — Tim Alberta joins Sarah on this week's episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump voters are ready to take on and take out Liz Cheney, as well as fellow Trump impeachment supporters Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse. The New Yorker's Susan Glasser joins Sarah to discuss tribalism, "Wyoming Values," and Cheney being forged into a national leader before our eyes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Voters who came age in the Trump era have a dark view of politics, their country, and the future. Peter Hamby, host of Snapchat’s “Good Luck America” and founder of Puck News, joins Sarah to talk about what voters under 30 are thinking. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The only thing Americans can agree on is how much they hate each other. David Axelrod, the mastermind behind President Obama's 2008 campaign, joins Sarah to talk about just how deep our divide goes, and where it might take America from here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We had planned to focus this episode on the January 6 Committee hearings. Sarah and Amanda talk about that, but something strange also happened in our last two groups: zero Trump voters wanted him to run in 2024. We talk about the hearings, how they matter for history, and whether they’re contributing to the Trump voters’ blues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ready or not, the 2024 election is right around the corner. Donald Trump is set up to run again, and the official line in the White House is that Joe Biden is running. What do our focus groups think of that redux, and who they think their other options are. National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar (at last) joins Sarah to hash out their Twitter disagreement over Trump’s grip on the GOP and to take a look into the future. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Supreme Court’s leaked opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade may or may not impact the midterm elections. We talked to a group of swing voters (women from swing states who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020), and they weren’t happy about it. Rachel Vindman, co-host of the podcast The Suburban Women Problem, joins Sarah to listen to…other suburban women. They also discuss how the group feels about the Biden presidency. Love the show but hate the ads? Bulwark+ members get to...