Stolen Signs

We talk about the Great Home Run Surge of 2019, the Rabbit Ball, Slippier in the Air Ball, the call up of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alex Rodriguez on YouTube. Links: * Moonshot: The Baseball Is Juiced (Again) by Robert Arthur * Moonshot: Exit Velocity Is Higher Than Ever by Robert Arthur * Moonshot: The Rabbit Ball is Flying in Triple-A Too by Robert Arthur * The Call-Up: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. by Jarrett Seidler and Kevin Jebens * Circle Change: Who’s Hitting the Extra Dingers? by Zach Crizer * Kendall's writing for the Prospectus Notebook * ARod on YouTube

We talked with Jared Diamond about recent MLB rules changes. Specifically related to one of our favorite subjects, two-way players. We address how teams will have to designate players as, pitchers, hitters, or two-way and what effect those rules will have on the game. We also get a peak into Jared's upcoming book. Harry and Kendall also dig into some of the upcoming changes that MLB will be testing out in the Atlantic League.

We chatted with the creators and maintainers of four major projection systems, ZiPS (Dan Szymborski (https://twitter.com/DSzymborski)), Steamer (Jared Cross (https://twitter.com/steamerpro)), THE BAT (Derek Carty (https://twitter.com/DerekCarty)) and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota-projections/) (Harry Pavlidis (https://twitter.com/harrypav)) about how their systems are created, how the past is used to project future performance and how projecting young players without much track record can be tricky. Music is "Open Your Face (https://parkerprojection.bandcamp.com/track/open-your-face)" by Parker Projection (https://open.spotify.com/artist/71yR5UGfJkZHeJ9kk3pezD?si=690DNsrQQHOLRBrNdcqM4g).

Deep dive into DRC+ and PECOTA with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown of Baseball Prospectus. Stats Chat DRC Updates and Improvements DRC+ and Observables All DRC+ coverage Projected Standings based on PECOTA How to watch Serie del Caribe 2019

Shohei Ohtani revisited, baseball Hall of Fame bar lowering and how it affects who gets in, lining up optimal player development and what happens when you launch a new statistic. Available at Baseball Prospectus (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/podcasts/episode-32-how-big-can-this-hall-get/)

Harry and Kendall talk about the quantifying The Opener phenomenon, Bill James' comments about replacing players, trying to figure out if regular baseball fans could visibly tell the difference between top MLB talent and replacement level talent. Then cap it off with a discussion about the changes at Baseball Prospectus.

In the playoffs (and always) pitching and catching are important Donate to the Lupus Foundation (http://bit.ly/2O7rtgh) Required Reading The unlucky legacy of the 2018 Houston Astros (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25024557/the-unlucky-legacy-2018-houston-astros) by Sam Miller (https://twitter.com/sammillerbb) Joel Sherman writes about the plight of catchers (https://nypost.com/2018/10/24/its-not-just-gary-inside-the-catching-plague-thats-only-getting-worse/)

We talk about how you build a baseball team for the playoffs and the future. It’s good to talk about baseball. Enjoy the playoffs.

Harry and Kendall talk about the Women's Baseball World Cup, then look at how the number of 🔥high velocity🔥pitchers has increased over the last 10 years. They wrap up with a discussion of how bullpen usage affects lineups and how it might affect your daily fantasy league. Stolen Bases book (https://amzn.to/2wmOnJw) by Jennifer Ring, Ph.D. (https://www.unr.edu/political-science/people/jennifer-ring) Women's Baseball World Cup website (https://wbwc.wbsc.org/) Women's Baseball World Cup YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-UXjExO348UiOCxazH69hA) Kalamazoo Yankees vs Colorado Silver Bullets (https://vimeo.com/162749016) Bullpen (Mis)management Tool (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/bpm/index.php?org=CHN&grint=27&startgame=1&endgame=162&year_id=2018&Submit=Submit&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=stolen_signs_28)

We visit with Jason Benetti, television play by play announcer for the Chicago White Sox. We talk with him about his start in the business, taking over for a broadcasting legend, how he integrates Steve Stone's first hand knowledge, with the plethora of statistical data he has access to. We also touch on the All Star Game and how catchers are evaluated for the Hall of Fame.

Talking about the materials that make up a baseball with Dr. Meredith Wills (https://twitter.com/Bbl_Astrophyscs). We also revisit two-way players, dig into defensive metrics and why they're difficult, and are reminded that everything old is new again. How one tiny change to the baseball may have led to both the home run surge and the rise in pitcher blisters (https://theathletic.com/381544/2018/06/06/how-one-tiny-change-to-the-baseball-may-have-led-to-both-the-home-run-surge-and-the-rise-in-pitcher-blisters/) Angels Live: What to make of ‘Seam Study’ (https://www.foxsports.com/west/video/1252393539925)

R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports came on to talk with us about the Rays recent usage of Sergio Romo as a starting pitcher. We talk about whether this concept will continue and if there may be other teams willing to try it out. We also talk with Anthony Rescan about his Baseball Prospectus Intern project for calculating surplus draft value. We threw in a handful of things we've learned over the last few weeks including tidbits about Kendrys Morales, Jordan Hicks, and the predictive value of xStats. How Sergio Romo and the Rays 'opener' strategy are impacting how pitching stats are tracked and viewedKendrys Morales: An All-Time Unlikely Base StealerMike Passador

We discuss the Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball released on May 24, 2018. We talk with committee chair Dr. Alan Nathan, and committee member Dr. Dan Brooks as well as radar and target tracking research engineer, Dr. Sean O'Rourke. We examine what the report is saying and what it means going forward.

Sam Miller joined us to talk about his recent article about evaluating Statcast's new Pop Time metric. Surprising exactly no one, we also talk about Shohei Ohtani, again. And take a look at Robinson Cańo's Hall of Fame candidacy. 'Pop' science: Your guide to learning a new MLB statSam MillerUsain Bolt playing baseballA big step forward in measuring commandEno SarrisCMD from Baseball ProspectusPart 1Part 2Part 3Harry Pavlidis Below is a table showing the comparative ratings of some of the pitchers with the best command scores. Command+CMD Shohei Ohtani is flexible https://twitter.com/shinjibvby/status/996478920110190592

Baseball is back and we're all so glad

PECOTA team projectionswinnersThe ShiftRussell A. CarletonJeff LongHome Runs Have Surged in MLB — Baseball Experts Explain WhyRob Arthur Other Links What would happen if you tried to hit a baseball pitched at 90% the speed of light?

When we talk about park adjusted stats, and park factors, what does all of that mean? How do we arrive at those numbers and how do we account for changes over time? We also talk about "pitch design" and how that combines analytical data and player development. Links: The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball ThinkingRussell A. CarletonBasics Of Pitch Design Using RapsodoBaseball Prospectus' Park Factors by Handedness

We talk with Jonathan Judge (https://twitter.com/bachlaw) and Rob McQuown (https://twitter.com/Robmcquown), who oversee Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections (https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/) to get some more insight into how the projections are made, what's new this year, and of course hip hop. Sam Miller (https://twitter.com/SamMillerBB) asks how much we'd be willing to endure to play Major League Baseball (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22381495/put-coach-how-much-embarrassment-willing-endure-play-major-league-baseball)

We talk to Jeff Long (https://twitter.com/JeffLongBP), Sean O'Rourke (https://twitter.com/dj_mosfett), Wayne Boyle (https://twitter.com/PitchGrader), and Russell Carleton (https://twitter.com/pizzacutter4) about their recent Pitching Week (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/tag/pitching-week/) article about the Robot Strikezone and Robot Umpires (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37347/robo-strike-zone-not-simple-think/). New Power, Command, Stamina pitching metrics (http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2507171) from Baseball Prospectus Updating Pitch Tunnels (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37436/prospectus-feature-updating-pitch-tunnels/) - by Jeff Long, Harry Pavlidis, and Martin Alonso (https://twitter.com/martnar) Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge (https://twitter.com/bachlaw) and Harry are nominated for a SABR Analytics Conference Research Award (http://sabr.org/about/sabr-analytics-conference-research-awards) The Hazards of Going on Auto-Pilot (https://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/hazards-automation) - by Maria Konnikova

Stolen Signs is back. Harry and Kendall talk about the slow offseason, collusion and ideas on how to change the economics of baseball. After a short break (14:05) they discuss new research by Duke University that looks into neurological and motor skills and how they translate to baseball production, a new smart baseball that can provide some pitch tracking and tease some new work by the stats team at Baseball Prospectus. To wrap up (32:00), a look into the state of pitching and try to talk about what an inning(s) eater is and also what an ace is. Neuroscience Can Project Batting Lines Now (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/neuroscience-can-project-batting-lines-now/) by Eno Sarris (https://twitter.com/enosarris) Anthony DiComo's tweet of Sandy Alderson quote (https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/953740175024193536) Here's why baseball's economic system might be broken (https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseballs-economic-system-might-broken-224638354.html) by Jeff Passan (https://twitter.com/jeffpassan)