Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US Downgrade 2:53 Corn Price Action 4:42 US Weather 7:48 Argentina Flooding 9:14 The Funds 11:04 India and Ethanol 📉 US Credit Downgrade Sparks Market Jitters 🇺🇸💥 Moody's has officially downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, stripping the nation of its final triple-A from any major agency. The move was driven by rising deficits, ballooning interest costs, and a lack of fiscal discipline. While not expected to spark immediate chaos, the downgrade could slowly increase borrowing costs. 💬 Meanwhile, the "Sell America" trade is back: 📉 Stocks ⬇️ 📉 Bonds ⬇️ (rates ⬆️) 💵 Dollar ⬇️ 🌎 Only 11 countries now hold a triple-A rating from Moody’s. 🌽 Corn Market Moves Corn futures slid 5¢ on Friday, with good weather and fast planting keeping prices under pressure. Over 60% of US corn is in the ground, ahead of average. But exports are strong—second best in 10 years! 🌦️ Radar Watch Storms are lighting up the Corn Belt! 🌩️ Rainfall expected in: • ND, SD, IA, MO • Heaviest rain: southern IA, northern MO, southern IL & IN, western KY 🌧️ Moisture could boost crop development in dry spots. 🇦🇷 Argentina Flooding Too much of a good thing? Parts of Buenos Aires saw 6–10 inches of rain! 🌊 Soy harvest delays continue, and sales have dropped to decade-lows. • Soybean meal ⬇️ • Soybean oil ⬆️ (after recent plunge) 📊 Fund Positioning • Corn: Biggest short since Oct '24 • SRW Wheat: Most short since Nov '23 • Soybeans: Funds were light buyers last week 🌍 US-India Ethanol Talks The US wants India to open its market to fuel-grade ethanol. But India’s pushing domestic production and is cautious of foreign suppliers flooding the market. 🇮🇳⛽ 👉 Subscribe for daily ag + macro updates! Drop your thoughts in the comments 💬 #GrainMarkets #USCreditDowngrade #Corn #Soybeans #Moody's #Argentina #Ethanol #Commodities #AgNews 🌾💰📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Soybean Oil Crash 2:16 US Weather / Drought 6:39 Meat Demand and Ozempic 9:44 NOPA Crush Report 12:00 Export Sales 15:10 Kansas Wheat Tour 16:53 CONAB Estimates 19:25 SpaceX and Farming 🌱 Big Moves in Biofuels, Drought, and Meat Demand! 🚜🔥 🛢️ EPA Biofuel Blend Drama The EPA just sent a new rule to the White House. 👀 Rumors suggest 2026 diesel blending targets may come in way below industry hopes — and soybean oil futures reacted hard, falling limit down. 📉 🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update Drought is creeping across key crop states. 😬 Corn: 22% 🌽 | Soybeans: 17% 🌱 | Winter Wheat: 23% 🌾 🍗 Ozempic Boosting Meat Demand? Weight-loss meds like Ozempic 💉 are driving higher chicken and beef consumption, says JBS — folks on GLP-1s want more protein! 🐔🥩 🧼 NOPA Crush Report April soybean crush dipped from March but still hit a record for the month 📊. Soybean oil stocks rose slightly but remain the lowest for April since 2015. 🌍 Strong US Corn Exports Corn export sales beat expectations! 🌽💪 Soybeans and wheat? A bit more sluggish 🐢📉 🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Surprise Highest projected yield since 2021! Timely spring rains helped wheat scouts forecast 53 bpa vs the usual 44.3. USDA's still a bit more conservative — but things are looking up! ☁️➡️🌧️ 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook Raised Conab raised Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts 🌽🇧🇷 Favorable rains, big second corn crop, and rising ethanol demand are all supporting the boom. 📈 🚀 Starlink x CNH = Farming Future Precision ag just got a boost! CNH teams up with SpaceX to bring Starlink satellite internet to the most remote fields. 🌐🛰️ Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated with real ag news that matters 👇 #Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #Biofuels #Starlink #Ozempic #Farmers #AgNews #Commodities 🌽📈🛰️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Soybean Rally 1:18 EPA and Bean Oil Selloff 3:36 Kansas Wheat Tour 6:28 Russia Wheat Update 8:14 Tyson CEO and Cattle 11:22 Ethanol Production 🌱 Soybeans Rally Again! Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! 📈 The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by: 🔹 A 90-day tariff truce between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳 🔹 A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit 🔹 Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with China But... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below 👇 ⚙️ EPA & Renewable Fuel Standard EPA Chief Lee Zeldin 🏛️ says new RVOs are coming soon! 🔸 Final rule expected in months 🔸 Public comment period ahead 🔸 Push for higher volume levels already underway Still, soybean oil futures are diving this morning 💥, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices. 🌾 Wheat Tour Surprises Kansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾 📍 Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg) 📍 SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲 USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger. ❄️ Russian Crop Weather Update Minimal damage from May frosts ❄️ 📉 Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss) But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌵 🥩 Cattle Market Tension Tyson says herd rebuilding has started. 🐄 …but challenges remain: ⚠️ Drought ⚠️ High prices ⚠️ Limited capital Tyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal 📉 🚜 Ethanol Production Slips 🔻 Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW) 📈 Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically) Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt 💵 — see full ethanol charts below! 📊 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! 🌽📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US Weather 3:42 Biofuel and Tax Bill 5:41 Iowa Eminent Domain 8:54 US Loses Soy Market Share 10:54 China Soybean Import Forecast 12:13 Inflation Update 🌽☔ Widespread Rain in the Corn Belt + Biofuels Shakeup, China Trade Jitters & Inflation Update! 📉🛢️🌍 🌧️ Weather Watch: A major rain event is unfolding across the US Corn Belt! Western ND/SD are already getting soaked, with more rain arriving in the eastern Corn Belt by Friday. The next 5-16 days could bring showers to even the driest spots! 💧🌽 🛢️ 45Z Tax Credit Overhaul: Big news from Washington! Proposed changes to the 45Z credit could boost rural jobs and spark biofuel innovation 🚜⚡—but also shake up feedstock sourcing 🌎. Chinese used cooking oil may be out, and soybean oil markets are reacting! 📈 🛣️ Iowa Battles Carbon Pipelines: The Iowa Senate passed a bill tightening rules on eminent domain for carbon pipelines 🚫🛢️. It could slow down Summit Carbon’s $8.9B project. The bill now heads to Governor Reynolds’ desk. 🖊️ 🇨🇳 Brazil Soybean Advantage Continues: Despite US-China tariff cuts, Brazil stays king 👑 in China’s soybean market thanks to no tariffs and a monster crop. US beans still face a 10% tariff, and farmers say the trade truce doesn’t fix long-term problems. 📉 China Soybean Imports Falling: China expects soybean imports to drop 2.8% next season, with domestic production climbing 🐖🌱. Reduced soymeal use in livestock feed is driving the shift. 📉 📊 Inflation Hits 4-Year Low! CPI rose just 2.3% YoY in April—the lowest since Feb 2021! 🙌 Markets rallied, and Treasury traders now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025. ✅ Subscribe for updates 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments 🔔 Hit the bell to stay ahead of the markets!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Corn Struggles 4:43 Soybeans Rally 6:08 Wheat Sucks 9:08 Planting Progress 11:25 Wheat Ratings 12:46 Mexican Feeder Cattle Suspension 13:54 Stock Market Rally 15:50 Shipments 16:59 Flash Sale 📊 USDA Report Recap + Tariff Talk + Market Reactions 🌽📈 🚨 Monday's USDA report brought friendly corn news, a soybean rally, and wheat pressure — but markets didn’t act like it. Here's what happened: 🌽 Corn Check-In USDA cut ending stocks for the current year thanks to higher exports ✅ New crop balance sheet came in tighter than expected 📉 But corn still traded lower this morning 🤷 🫘 Soybean Surge July ‘25 beans jumped nearly 20¢ 🚀 Support from US-China tariff reduction & tighter supply estimates 📉 Ending stocks now the 2nd lowest since ‘12/’13 🔥 🌾 Wheat Woes Chicago wheat hit a new contract low ❌ USDA boosted both US & global ending stocks 📈 Rain across the Plains = improving crop conditions 🌧️ 🌱 Planting Progress Corn: 62% planted nationally 🌽 Beans: 48% planted 🫘 Several states moving fast, others still behind ⏱️ 🪲 Feeder Cattle Suspension USDA halts Mexican feeder cattle imports due to New World screwworm 🚫🐛 Cattle futures 🚀 on the news Mexico calls move “unfair” 🇲🇽 📉 Export Update Corn exports dipped but still solid 📦 Soybean and wheat shipments mixed 📬 USDA also announced a flash soybean sale to Mexico 🇲🇽 💼 Market Rally! S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all jumped 📈 US-China slash tariffs for 90 days 🛃 Traders now see fewer Fed rate cuts this year 💰 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to subscribe for more ag market updates! 📲 #USDA #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #FarmNews #Cattle #AgTrade #MarketUpdate #CropProgress #Commodities #Farming #AgNews

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US/China Tariffs Reduced 3:55 Trade War Impact? 6:16 USDA Preview 9:32 US Weather Update 11:36 The Funds 12:35 China Soybean Imports Slow 13:53 Flash Sales 📢 Tariff Truce & Trade Shifts: Big News for Ag & Markets! 🌎🌽📈 🧾 📉 Tariffs Slashed! The US and China have agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days. 🇺🇸➡️🇨🇳 🔹 US drops from 145% ➡️ 30% 🔹 China drops from 125% ➡️ 10% Talks included fentanyl policy and potential purchase agreements from China. 🤝 🌱 🧪 Trade War Fallout in Ag Tariffs have disrupted grain flows, fertilizer imports, and ag input costs. Farmers face delays, higher prices, and uncertainty. 🚜💸 Brazil benefits as China shifts some demand south. 🇧🇷🌾 📊 🔥 Soybeans Near 3-Month Highs Markets are moving! 🔹 Soybeans ⬆️ 🔹 S&P 500 ⬆️ 2% 🔹 US Dollar 🚀 📅 🌽 New USDA WASDE Report Today! At 11am CST, get your first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets. Expect bearish corn news with trend yields + March acreage. 🧮 🌦️ Corn Belt Weather Update Dry weekend, but moisture is on the way… 🌧️ Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky today 🌧️ ND, SD, MN & east Corn Belt later this week Watch for dry pockets in Nebraska & western Iowa. ☀️ 💰 Fund Flows & Flash Sales "The Funds" sold 57k corn contracts last week. 🟢 288k MT corn sold to Mexico 🟢 120k MT soybeans sold to Pakistan Get the full breakdown + CFTC & Fund Tracker charts. 📉📊 🛢️ China Soy Imports Drop 29%! Only 6.1mmt in April —the lowest in 10 years. Customs delays & longer Brazil transit times are to blame. ⏱️🚢 Rebound expected in May/June. 📈 👇 Don’t miss this critical update on trade, tariffs, weather & global grain flows. Like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! 📌 Stay informed. Stay ready. 💬🌎

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Da Pope 1:03 Charts 4:58 USDA Preview 9:55 US/UK Deal 12:21 Trump China Thoughts 16:21 Drought/Weather Update 20:28 Export Sales 21:38 Flash Sales 📊 USDA Report Monday + Big Trade News! 🌍🌽 📅 Mark your calendar! USDA drops its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Monday at 11am CST. We'll get our first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets, with trend yields and March acreage in focus. 📉 Early expectations suggest bearish new crop corn vs. the current year. Pre-report estimates 👇 🇺🇸🇬🇧 US–UK Strike Ag Deal! The UK will eliminate its 19% ethanol tariff, giving a major boost to the US ethanol industry 🚀 ($535M in exports last year). The deal also expands beef trade, but UK food safety rules will still apply. For context: the UK = 🇬🇧 68 million people, with 36 lbs of beef consumption per person vs. 59 lbs in the US. 🍖📉 📈 Trump Eyes China Tariff Cuts President Trump expressed hope for progress in this weekend’s trade talks with China 🇨🇳. A tariff reduction (currently at 145%) could be on the table. Markets responded: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% 💹 🌾 Drought Monitor Highlights Most of the Corn Belt is drought-free, but dryness is growing in parts of MO, IL, IN & the High Plains. Here’s the USDA breakdown: Corn: 20% Soybeans: 15% Winter Wheat: 22% Spring Wheat: 37% Cattle Areas: 30% 🚢 Export Sales Recap Corn: 1.7mmt – 🌽 65M bu (+64% WoW) – Japan leads Soybeans: 377k mt – 🫘 14M bu – Mexico leads Wheat: 70k mt – 🌾 3M bu – Mexico leads 🌎 China Turns to Argentina China signed a $900M non-binding grain deal with 🇦🇷 Argentina, aiming to sidestep Trump’s tariffs. Expect rising Argentine corn & soybean shipments to China. 📢 Flash Sales! Mexico: 205k mt corn (2024/25 & 2025/26) Unknown Dest.: 115k mt corn (2024/25) Pakistan: 225k mt soybeans (largest since June 2022) 🛳️ 📬 Subscribe for more updates & leave your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Corn Selloff 4:32 Trump Comments, US/UK Deal 5:45 Podcast News 9:06 Bunge and Andersons 10:39 Corteva 11:51 Ethaonl Production/Stocks 12:44 Fed Rates 📉 Corn Futures Slide Amid Trade Tensions & Weather Outlook 🌾 Corn prices dipped Wednesday as optimism over US–China trade talks gave way to fresh uncertainty. July25 corn futures settled near $4.49 per bushel, down 6 cents on the day. President Trump's refusal to lower tariffs ahead of upcoming negotiations with Beijing, combined with favorable US planting weather, pressured the market. Planting is already ahead of schedule—corn 40% and soybeans 30% complete. 🇨🇳 Tariff Talk Turns Tense Trump made it clear: no tariff rollbacks before talks. With US and Chinese officials set to meet in Switzerland, the president doubled down on his hardline stance. Beijing isn't happy. Meanwhile, a US–UK trade deal could be announced today. 🎙️ Podcast Profits Soar The podcasting industry is booming—$7.3 billion in 2024, more than double previous estimates! YouTube now dominates the space, with ad and subscription revenue leading the way. 📉 Grain Traders Feel the Heat Bunge saw Q1 profits drop 40%, while Andersons posted disappointing revenue and a 10% stock dive. Ongoing tariff drama and unclear biofuel credits are taking a toll. 🌱 Corteva Sees Strong Seed Sales Corteva beat earnings estimates with an $842M Q1 profit thanks to higher seed prices—especially in North America. However, global sales dipped 2% amid currency headwinds. 📊 Corteva financial chart below. 🛢️ Ethanol Production Slips Slightly Weekly ethanol output came in at 1.02M barrels/day—down slightly from last week, but still strong year-over-year. Margins are improving, especially in the eastern Corn Belt. 🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Cites Uncertainty The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 4.3%, resisting Trump’s calls for cuts. Powell cited rising inflation risks and economic fallout from trade tensions. 💸 Stagflation fears and rate outlook in the chart section. 👇 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates, charts, and expert analysis! #CornMarket #Tariffs #USChinaTrade #Ethanol #Corteva #PodcastBoom #FedUpdate #GrainPrices #FarmEconomy #Commodities

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US/China 3:16 New Trade Agreements? 4:33 China Wheat Problems 6:49 Transition Planning 8:35 Farmer Sentiment 10:29 Ethanol Exports are Strong 11:49 SAF News 13:17 Problems at ADM 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks Begin This Weekend! 🌍 Big moves on the global stage! US officials are heading to Switzerland for high-stakes trade talks with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the goal is de-escalation, not a final deal—but with tariffs as high as 145%, the stakes are massive. 💥📉 🌾 Meanwhile... Hot Weather Threatens China's Wheat Crop A heatwave is scorching Henan, China's top wheat-producing province, with drought fears rising. Could this spark more wheat imports? 👀🌾 See charts below. 🤝 Trump Eyes New Trade Deals While China's negotiations stall, India 🇮🇳 and Japan 🇯🇵 may be first in line for new trade agreements. Stay tuned. 📋🖊️ 🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds Despite tariff headaches, farmers are feeling a bit better about the road ahead, says Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer. But many still worry about input costs and long-term impact. 🌱📊 ⛽ Biofuel Boom: Ethanol & SAF on the Rise! Ethanol exports surged 41% in March. 🚢 SAF production has 15x’d since January! ✈️🌿 All thanks to federal & state incentives pushing the clean fuel agenda. 🔋🌎 📉 ADM Feels the Pressure Uncertainty in biofuel policy and weak crushing margins are weighing on profits. ADM expects earnings at the low end of forecasts—see why in the charts. 📉📦 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for more ag market updates! 🌽📈 #USChinaTrade #Tariffs #Ethanol #SAF #AgNews #FarmEconomy #WheatCrop #Biofuels #ADM #Farmers #TrumpTradePolicy

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Corn Selloff 3:00 Corn and Soybean Planting Pace 7:04 Wheat Progress / Conditions 8:13 Russian Wheat Pricing 9:09 Tyson Slump 11:24 Grain Shipments 📉 Grain Markets Under Pressure! 🌽🌾💥 Corn futures took a dive Monday as fast US planting progress and favorable weather set a bearish tone. Jul25 corn dropped nearly 15¢ to $4.54. Traders are eyeing next week’s USDA numbers and watching Brazil’s second crop flourish. 🇺🇸🌤️🇧🇷 🚜 US Planting Progress 🌱 Corn planting is 40% complete—slightly behind trade guesses but still ahead of average. Soybeans are at 30%, also ahead of normal pace. Drier weather this week should accelerate progress across the Corn Belt. 🌽🌿 🌾 Wheat Ratings & Progress 📈 Winter wheat condition improved to 51% good-excellent, beating expectations. Spring wheat planting also moved forward at 44% complete. Russia's new crop wheat offers are pressuring global markets as frost fears fade. 🇷🇺💧 🥩 Tyson Foods Tumbles 📉🐄 Tyson shares sank despite a strong Q2 report, as beef sector losses mount. The US cowherd is at its smallest since 1961, driving cattle costs sky-high. Ranchers may finally be turning the corner on herd rebuilding. 💸📉 🚢 Export Update 🚢 US corn inspections dipped to 1.6mmt but remain solid YoY. Soybean and wheat inspections missed expectations, with both down sharply from last week. 📊🌍 👍 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 US Planting Window 2:49 "Perfect" Brazil Weather 4:51 Tariff Exemptions 8:26 USDA Budget Cuts 9:44 The Funds 10:45 Black Sea Drone Attack 📉🌾 Grain Market Update | Rainfall, Brazil Crop Bump, China Tariff Moves & More! 🇨🇳🇧🇷 🌦️ Weekend Weather Recap Rain was spotty across the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South! Some parts of KY & OH got up to 2.7", but most areas saw less. The western Corn Belt stayed mostly dry. Planting weather looks favorable this week with minimal rain expected! 🌽 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Surprise StoneX bumped up its Brazil soybean estimate to 168.4 MMT and raised second corn crop projections to 104.3 MMT thanks to solid yields in Mato Grosso. One analyst even called the crop “nearly perfect”! 🚜☀️ 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Watch China just exempted $40B in US goods from tariffs—pharma, chemicals & more. The US has also lifted tariffs on $102B of Chinese goods. Rumors are swirling that talks may resume soon. Trump hinted that a deal could come this week. 📈🗣️ 💰 Trump Budget Targets Ag Trump’s proposed budget slashes over $4.5B from USDA funding. Cuts hit CRP, rural development, and renewable energy projects—but there's $100M added for food safety and rural housing aid. 🏡❌🌱 📊 Fund Moves CFTC says "The Funds" sold off 46k corn contracts last week. Net short positions in SRW wheat are now the largest since Nov 2023! Soybeans saw a slight net buying trend. 📉💼 🔥 Black Sea Tensions Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s biggest grain terminal at Novorossiysk. Damage was done, but operations resumed quickly. VP Vance says peace talks have been initiated, but Russia’s not ready for a truce yet. ⚠️🛩️🌾 👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Stay informed — it matters more than ever! 💬📲

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 China Assessing Talks 2:30 Hassett Comments 3:00 Soybean Stuff 4:59 Farm Machinery Slump 7:52 Drought Monitor 10:58 Export Sales 13:01 California Gas Ban? 🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks? Signals from Beijing & Washington Big moves may be brewing in global trade! China says the US wants to talk tariffs, but Beijing is calling for "sincerity." Will this lead to a breakthrough? Let’s break it all down 👇 🧨 Tariff Tensions & Trade Optimism China's Commerce Ministry revealed the US has reached out about potential talks. Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is hopeful, especially after China removed tariffs on some US goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 💊💻 🚜 Farm Machinery Sales Slump Tariff uncertainty is crushing machinery demand. CNH Industrial and AGCO posted big Q1 sales drops—23% and 30%. 📉 But oddly… both stocks rallied! AGCO reaffirmed 2025 sales goals while CNH forecasted a steep decline. 🌾 Drought Conditions Improving USDA’s latest drought data brings some relief 🌧️: ✔️ Drought in the Corn Belt down to 6% ✔️ Kansas sees the biggest improvement—drought fell from 64% to 37%! ✔️ Drought still lingers in wheat and cattle areas (Spring Wheat: 37%, Cattle: 31%) 🌽 Grain Export Sales Snapshot 📉 Corn: 1 MMT – down 12% WoW 📈 Soybeans: 428,200 MT – up 55% WoW 📉 Wheat: 72,000 MT – sharply lower Top buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (corn), 🇨🇳 China (soybeans), 🇹🇭 Thailand (wheat) 🚗 California Gas Car Ban in Trouble? The House just voted to repeal California’s EV waiver ❗ The Senate vote is next. This could derail the 2035 gas car ban and affect other states like NY and WA. California is the #2 US consumer of both gasoline and ethanol. ⛽🌽 👉 Don’t miss an update! Subscribe & drop your thoughts in the comments 💬 Stay tuned for more grain market and trade breakdowns every week!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 EU Deforestation Law Impact 2:56 Corn Belt Rains 4:48 GDP Contraction 8:46 China PMI 9:46 Ethanol Production 10:50 Flash Sale 🪵 EU’s New Deforestation Law 🌍 The 🇪🇺 EU is set to label the 🇺🇸 US as low-risk under its deforestation law, easing concerns for American exporters of beef, grain, and timber. Meanwhile, 🇧🇷 Brazil is expected to be tagged standard-risk, which could hurt its soy and beef exports. A final vote is coming mid-May! 🌧️ Radar Watch: Corn Belt Rains 🌽 Storms are active across parts of IA, IL, MN, MI & IN this morning, with 2–3" possible in IL. More rain is on the way for the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South. US planting remains ahead of schedule — see maps below! 🚜 📉 US GDP Shrinks in Q1 🇺🇸 The US economy contracted 0.3% last quarter — the first dip since 2022. A surge in imports (ahead of Trump’s tariffs), weak consumer spending, and a drop in government outlays all played a role. Net exports shaved off nearly 5% from GDP, the worst since 1947! 😳 🏭 China’s PMI Falls Below 50 🐉 China’s manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory with a 49.0 PMI reading. Ongoing US-China tensions continue to weigh on trade and exports. Beijing may soon unveil new stimulus efforts. 📉 🛢️ Ethanol Update: Margins Near Breakeven 🍶 US ethanol output rose to 1.04M bpd last week. Stocks dipped slightly but remain elevated. Margins are tight, with the Eastern Corn Belt reporting the best profitability. ⚗️ 🚢 Corn Flash Sale + Export Strength 🌎 US exporters booked 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 24/25. Accumulated sales are up 26% YoY! With Brazil on hold until July, US corn is HOT on the world stage. 🔥 Stay informed and make better marketing decisions with the data that matters. 💼📈 👉 Subscribe for more ag updates 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments — what do YOU think about the new EU rules? 👍 Like, share & follow for the latest!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Tuesday Selloff 3:34 China to Reduce Grain/Meal Use 6:04 Transition Planning 7:38 China Comments 8:48 Russia Wheat Update 10:04 Amazon Tariff Charges? 11:33 Flash Sales 🌽📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide Sharply! Corn and soybean futures took a hit Tuesday as planting progress races ahead! The Jul25 corn contract fell 13¢ to around $4.70, while soybeans dropped nearly 10¢ to $10.53. South American weather is looking great, and there’s no big bearish headline—just a wave of selling pressure as weather premiums fade. 🌾🌦 Wheat Drifts Lower Too SRW wheat followed suit, down 6¢ to $5.26. Timely US Plains rain and a slight bump in Russian exports kept prices under pressure. 🐖🥣 China’s New Feed Plan China plans to cut grain use in livestock feed to 60% and soymeal to just 10% by 2030. The shift toward alternative proteins like insects and food waste is a major step in Beijing’s strategy to reduce reliance on US soybeans. 📉 🛑🇨🇳 China Pushes Back on Tariffs At a BRICS meeting, China warned against giving in to US tariff pressure. Officials demand a rollback of all tariffs before trade talks can start. Meanwhile, the US hints at tougher measures. 🚢🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Export Forecast Raised Sovecon bumped up its Russian wheat export forecast to 40.7mmt despite ongoing profitability issues. Margins remain tight, and a breakout in shipments still looks unlikely. 🛒🇺🇸 Amazon Won’t Show Tariff Costs After blowback from the White House and President Trump, Amazon has scrapped plans to display tariff charges on its discount platform, Amazon Haul. The drama continues… 📦🌍 Flash Sales to Spain & Unknown Buyers! USDA reported new flash sales: 🔹 120,000mt of corn to Spain 🔹 110,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations 👇 Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights every week! #GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #ChinaTrade #USDA #Tariffs #AgricultureNews

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Wheat Futures Fall 3:50 Summer E15 7:36 Corn and Soybean Planting 9:15 US Wheat Update 10:03 China Comments 11:32 Grain Shipments are Strong 12:19 Screwworm Update 🌾 Wheat Futures Tumble Amid Plains Rainfall! 🌧️ Big moves in the grain markets to kick off the week! Here's what's happening: 👇 🌾 Wheat Update SRW wheat fell 14¢ to $5.31/bu. 📉 HRW wheat dropped 11¢ to $5.40/bu. 📉 Heavy rainfall in Texas & Oklahoma (6–8 inches possible!) forecasted 🌦️ 🌽 Corn & Soybeans Steady Futures mostly flat as traders watch for export disruptions from Trump's China trade war ⚖️ ⛽ Nationwide E15 Sales Approved Emergency EPA waiver greenlights E15 sales this summer. 🚗💨 Analysts expect little impact on corn demand. 📊 🌱 Planting Progress Corn planting: 24% complete vs. 22% avg. 🌽 Soybean planting: 18% complete vs. 12% avg. 🌱 🌾 Winter Wheat Ratings Improve 49% good-excellent, beating analyst expectations ✅ Spring wheat planting also ahead of average. 📈 🌍 China Shifts Away from US Grain Record soybean imports from South America expected 📦 Some disruptions after Brazil harvest delays ⏳ 🚢 Export Inspections Corn inspections strong at 1.6mmt 🚢 Wheat and soybean shipments mixed. 📦 🐄 US-Mexico Screwworm Agreement Border closure on feeder cattle imports avoided ✅ Threat averted that could've tightened cattle supplies further. 🚜 👇 Don't forget to LIKE, COMMENT, and SUBSCRIBE for your daily grain market updates!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Mixed Messaging 3:13 Japan and South Korea Talks 4:06 US Weather and Rains 8:06 Fund Positions 9:21 Panama Canal 10:44 Another Screwworm/Cattle Headline 11:54 Flash Sale 🇺🇸🌎 Trade Talks...or No Talks? 🇨🇳❓ Big moves (and some big confusion) on the global trade front! President Trump says China wants a deal, but Beijing denies any talks 🤔. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't sure if Trump spoke to Xi Jinping directly, though USDA's Brooke Rollins says daily tariff conversations are happening 📞. Meanwhile, soybean futures are feeling the pressure early this morning 🌱📉. 🗺️ Weekend Trade Updates: ✅ Productive talks with Japan and South Korea ✅ New focus on currency policy with South Korea ✅ More rain on the way for the US Corn Belt ☔—see maps below! 📊 Fund Tracker Highlights: Funds net buyers of soybeans for a 4th week! 🚀 Largest net-long soybean position since February! Funds sold corn but bought some SRW wheat 🌽🌾. 🚢 Trump's Shipping Push: Demanding free US passage through the Panama and Suez Canals! 🌍 Reviving US shipbuilding as China tensions rise 🔥. 🐂 Border Watch: USDA threatens new cattle import restrictions from Mexico. 🐄🚫 Screwworm outbreak grows—action deadline looms April 30! 🌽 Flash Corn Sale: 235,000mt sold to Mexico! 🇲🇽 US remains the top corn supplier with Brazil out of the game (for now). ⚡ 👇 Stay tuned, like & subscribe for the latest on trade, markets, and agriculture! Let's talk about it in the comments! 💬👇

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🇨🇳 China’s Trade Shift? Beijing may exempt some US goods from tariffs! A task force led by China’s Ministry of Commerce is compiling a list—rumored to include 131 product categories—but no official word yet. This could signal growing concern about trade war impacts. Bloomberg & Reuters both confirm the buzz 📊 🌱 Soybean Prices Surge Soybean futures climbed for the 4th day in a row, hitting $10.62/bu on July25! Traders are hopeful about rising global demand and easing US-China tensions. Japan is reportedly eyeing more US soybeans, and soybean oil gains added support 🚀 🐖 China Cancels Pork Orders China just made its largest US pork cancellation since 2020—pulling 20,000mt! Tariffs on pork are now a staggering 172%, and beef faces a 147% rate. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Meat exports are definitely in the crosshairs of the trade fight 🥩 🌽 Brazil’s Corn Crunch Brazil’s ethanol output from corn is exploding—set to hit 8.25 billion liters this year and more next! That’s tightening domestic corn supplies and may reduce Brazil’s exports… a potential win for US corn competitiveness 💪 📉 Grain Exports Slump US corn sales dropped 26% on the week, soybeans fell 50%, and wheat saw net reductions 😬. Buyers were Japan (corn), Mexico (soybeans), and Vietnam (wheat). The export scene’s getting tougher. 🔥 Drought Update Some relief! 🌧️ Drought eased in Missouri, Iowa, and parts of Illinois and Minnesota. But corn, soybeans, and wheat still face stress across big portions of the US 🌾 Corn: 26% in drought Soybeans: 21% Winter Wheat: 33% Spring Wheat: 49% Cattle areas: 37% 📊 Stock Market Rebounds Markets popped Thursday as Trump’s softer trade tone gave investors hope. But China says talks haven’t started, so stay tuned… 📉 The S&P 500 is still down 3.3% since April 2. 👉 Like, comment, and subscribe for more timely grain market updates. Stay informed. Stay ahead. 💡

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 🌱 Soybeans Pop, Corn Slips, Wheat Hits New Lows 🚜 📈 Markets on the Move! Soybean futures climbed 📊—with July ‘25 beans hitting their highest level in 2️⃣ months! The boost came after President Trump reassured markets he won’t fire Fed Chair Powell and suggested tariff relief for China 🇨🇳. Technical buying added fuel to the rally 🔥 🌽 Corn & Wheat Down Corn dipped as dry weather forecasts may speed up planting in the Corn Belt 🌾. Wheat futures fell, pressured by weak global demand and rain across the U.S. Plains 🌧️. Jul’25 HRW wheat made contract lows overnight ⚠️ 🇨🇳 China Crop Trouble Drought in China’s wheat & corn belts and soggy conditions up north are hitting yields and delaying soybean planting 🚨. At the same time, tensions remain high in the trade war, with China demanding the U.S. scrap all tariffs 🚫📦 ⛽ Ethanol Update U.S. ethanol stocks sank to their lowest since January 🛢️. Weekly output rose, but margins remain tight 🤏. Could tightening supplies lift prices? 🇦🇷 Argentina Harvest Lags Dry weather will speed up soybean harvest in Argentina 🌞—but March floods already cut into yields. Only 23% of the crop has been sold, the lowest in a decade 📉 🛢️ Crude Oil Drops WTI fell 2.2% as OPEC+ weighs another output boost 💧. Eight members meet May 5 to decide on June volumes 🗓️ 👇 See the latest maps & charts below! 💬 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let’s talk grain! 🌾📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 21k Subs! Thanks! 0:51 Trump to Ease on China? 3:02 Markets React 5:16 Ethanol Push 6:50 Summit Pipeline Setback 8:05 Another Spring Wheat Contract? 9:33 IMF Forecast 11:16 Trade and Logistics Impact 🇺🇸💼 Trump Signals Softer Tariffs in China Talks President Trump says tariffs on Chinese goods may be reduced but not eliminated. “We’re going to be very nice,” he added. As markets feel the pressure 📉 and rates stay high, trade talks could gain urgency. 📊 Treasury Talks & Market Reaction Treasury’s Scott Bessent says current tariffs aren’t sustainable — and that a new trade balance could emerge in 2-3 years. 📈 Stocks rallied on the optimism, with major indexes jumping nearly 3%. ⛽ Midwest Pushes for E15 Fuel Waivers Seven Midwest governors 🧑‍🌾 are urging the EPA to approve E10/E15 waivers for the summer driving season. They say it’ll boost fuel supply and bring prices down — especially important amid current shortages. 🛑 South Dakota Nixes Carbon Pipeline Summit Carbon’s pipeline plan got shut down ❌ as SD regulators voted 2–1 against it. The state’s eminent domain ban made land access nearly impossible. Summit plans a new route after investing $150M. 🌾 Spring Wheat Showdown: CME vs MIAX CME launched its own spring wheat contract to compete with MIAX 🌾. Traders worry the market may not support two. CME is slashing fees to win volume, but MIAX holds strong with historic data and momentum. 🌍 IMF Lowers Global Outlook The IMF just cut growth forecasts ✂️ for most major economies. For the U.S., 2025 growth is now seen at 1.8%—with inflation expected to hit 3%. The U.S.-China tariff battle is a key reason behind the slowdown 📉. 🚢 SoCal Trade at Risk The West Coast’s logistics hub may be in trouble 😬. Tariffs are slashing cargo volumes at LA and Long Beach ports. Imports & exports could drop 10% starting next month, though diverted traffic might cushion the blow. 👇 Stay tuned for the latest on trade, tariffs, and fuel markets 📌 Don’t forget to subscribe, drop a like, and leave your thoughts in the comments!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links- Apple Podcasts Spotify TikTok YouTube Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. 0:00 Subscribe! 0:45 Dollar, Trump, Powell, Commodities 4:06 US / India Talks 8:15 US Planting Update 11:27 SA Countries Benefit from Trade War 13:19 Corn Shipments are Strong 📉 Dollar Drops to 3-Year Low | US-India Trade Talks | Crop Progress & Export Strength 💪 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! In today’s update, we cover big moves in currency, trade, and crops. 🌎🚜📊 💵 US Dollar Slides The greenback hit its lowest level since March 2022 😬 as Trump pressures the Fed to slash interest rates. Tensions rise as the White House reportedly explores removing Jerome Powell. 😮📉 🇺🇸🤝🇮🇳 US-India Trade Talks Advance Vice President JD Vance visits India and pushes for a fall trade deal 📆. India might slash tariffs on U.S. imports and open the door to ethanol discussions for the first time ever. 🔥 🌱 Corn & Soybean Planting Update Corn is 12% planted, soybeans 8% 🌽🫘, with some states flying ahead of schedule while others lag behind. Full breakdowns inside! 📈 🌾 Winter & Spring Wheat Snapshot Winter wheat ratings slip a bit but still beat the average. Spring wheat planting is moving quickly in the north! 🌾⚙️ 🌍 Brazil & Argentina Step Up South American ag exporters are cashing in on the US-China trade war. Chinese buyers pivot to Brazil for beef and beans. 🇧🇷🐄🥜 🚢 Export Inspections Beat Estimates Corn, soybeans, and wheat all showed strong demand last week — with corn topping 1.7mmt! 📦📦📦