Market Matters

Too many industry "experts" are saying a real estate crash is on the way. Matt and Adam simply believe these other experts are wrong. Interest rates are likely to be coming down and have markedly since recording this episode, The Federal Reserve appears to be changing direction as a result of economic and labor market reporting, and at home in the Colorado market, we simply have one of the most diversified and strong economies in the country with a population begging to purchase real estate. There is no real estate crash in the near future. Buyers should be looking to buy right now, today before interest rates drop further. When rates do drop, increased demand will drive prices higher. As long as a buyer can afford today's payment, has money in reserve, and is purchasing for the long term, today is the best time to buy. Then if rates drop in the future, refinance to the lower payment. Sellers should anticipate rising prices next spring and command a good value for their home. We'll likely see a market of competitive offers and short marketing time starting mid-February to early March.

This episode was recorded only days before the most recent war in Isreal began. Matt and Adam discuss the necessity of some "black swan" event occuring to shift the US economy, such as a another pandemic, lock downs, or war. We don't know that war in Isreal will lead to a major social or economic event in the United States. But we can see that conditions exist around the world as ingredients for change that may cause rapid shifts here at home. Most likely those rapid shifts would include lower interest rates, which would spike real estate buyer activity and drive home values even higher. In this eposide Matt and Adam move fast in explaining current real estate market conditions in the Colorado market and use the word "judicious" in providing guidance to buyers and sellers. 2023 is the slowest year in real estate, most likely since the great depression. And prices continue to rise. Why? Real estate appears a strong bet. What is it we see in market conditions that have us remain positive about stability? Where might interst rates be headed and how should a real estate buyer or seller be thinking right now? Matt and Adam recommend long term thinking. Any real estate purchase should be a minimum 3 year buy and hold to be most prudent. Note-there has not been a value decline of American real estate more than 2 years in a row, since the great depression. The great depression saw real estate lose only 7% value over a 4 year period. What hurt homeowners at that time was variable rate mortgages and declining wages. Home buyers should have money in reserve, a payment that is comfortable right now, relative job security and minimize descretionary purchases unless you are in a position that is incredibly financially comfortable. If you need to move due to circumstances of life such as marriage, divorce, births, jobs or death, have confidence that real estate is simply the best performing asset class in the history of western civilization (Read the rate of return of everything https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp2017-25.pdf).

The Colorado economy is strong and the real estate market remains healthy for reasons we've discussed in the past, even though volume of activity is as low as we've ever seen for a population of this size. However, there is a market condition Matt and Adam discuss in this Podcast that cannot be ignored. They make reference to the physics question, "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?" The unstoppable force in real estate is inflationary pressure and monetary policy plaguing the national economy. Will sustained inflation continue to drive interest rates higher? Will the Federal Reserve be force to continue to raise the overnight rates? And if so, does this ultiamtely create economic slow down and job loss that cools buyer activity in real estate even further, potentially to some tipping point? And the immovable object is the bedrock of real estate stability right now, 76% of homeowners have an interest rate and payment on their current home they absolutely love. This is keeping inventory low and that low supply ultatmely is what is keeping prices elevated. Will this real estate health continue? Matt and Adam acknowledge the complexity of this question and work to provide the listener an answer with specific recommendations of how to protect yourself in an economy that feels more than a little shaky.

In this episode we affirm for the listener that we are right on track with expected 2023 real estate market conditions. Our only miss was anticipating interest rates to hit the mid to high 5% range, as we currently sit closer to 7% on a 30 year fixed. There are two reasons for higher interest rates, which we address in this episode along with current market and economic conditions indicative of a rate decline in the coming months. If rates do drop, we likely see a surge in buyer activity. We discuss the seasonal changes currently observable in the market. Headlines will speak of catastrophe as values are declining. But values decline every year from July through year end. All market conditions point to a strong, stable market now driven by lifestyle changes of marriages and births, death and divorce, job changes and lifestyle desire, versus cheap capital of 2020 through early 2022. The 2023 Colorado real estate market is set up to end strong, priming for a stable, appreciating 2024 market that likely sees more homes hit the market and more buyer activity than 2023.

Year to date, the Colorado real estate market has done exactly what we expected. Property value appreciation, slight decline of interest rates, strong buyer activity and lower volume in the market overall. The question on every consumers mind is, should I buy and sell real estate right now? Or, is there some future moment I should wait for? In this episode, Matt and Adam discuss current market conditions, but more importantly the underlying reasons for those market conditions. They acknowledge and discuss the important variables that make future market certainty impossible such as national debt, federal reserve monetary policy, potential recession and resulting unemployment. But they also make the very strong argument that all ingredients for a long term appreciating residential real estate market exist. Listen in to help you make smart buying and selling decisions.

Matt and Adam discuss how the Colorado (And National) real estate market is evolving with higher interest rates, bank failures, federal reserve posture and some economic factors they've been tracking that are indicative of US economic recession. Spoiler alert, the Colorado real estate market is strong and appreciating and other than the typical seasonal adjustments we will likely see from July through the end of 2023, there are no signs weakness. Matt then asked Adam to give his quick take on some countries pledging to move away from the US dollar as the currency for exchange and the announcement of the new US digital currency (no, not bitcoin or other crypto currency).

While the world seems to be crazy at the moment, Colorado real estate at least, seems to be playing out exactly as we expected this year. Inventory remains relatively low due to many homeowners content with their long term low interest rate and buyer activity remains relatively high even in the face of mortgage rates much higher than one year ago. Matt and Adam discuss the current forces impacting the economy and interest rates, as the two primary drivers of supply and demand in Colorado real estate. They discuss the long term ramifications of population migration to and from Colorado and impact on the local economy, influencing the longer term outcomes for Colorado real estate.

Homeowners should expect a solid rate of market appreciation this spring. Sellers will be slower to the market keeping inventory lower and when they do list their home for sale, homes will be selling faster and in a growing number of cases, experience multiple offers over asking price. Buyers will need to get aggressive again and be very well prepared with their lending. With economic and jobs market insecurity, we certainly don't recommend everyone to take action in this market, but for those with capital in reserve and secure employment, we invite you into a conversation about building wealth through real estate. We briefly discuss some key characteristics about real estate as the best asset class available and share some projections for the next 5 years of real estate across the country.

In the first Market Matters of the new year, Matt and Adam summarize the Colorado real estate market in 2022, their projections and reasons behind a balanced market in 2023 - in which homeowners will most likely experience a 2-5% rate of appreciation - and why mortgage interest rates will decline in the first quarter of the year. Matt and Adam also explain some of the concerns about the US economy related to inflation, the federal reserve monetary policy and in particular the labor market that could influence the direction of real estate.

Matt and Adam address the question, are we in a housing bubble? While buyer demand is greatly reduced due to the rise of interest rates, Matt and Adam make the argument that at minimum, through spring of 2023, the real estate market will remain strong. Matt and Adam briefly explain why housing inventory is likely to remain low, mortgage rates will likely drop, buyer demand will likely rise and the most probable outcome is a modest rate of home value appreciation. Longer term, there are arguments for a hard US economic recession coming and life circumstances like job loss driving a tipping point in the housing market where inventory rises substantially. This will affect the supply and demand equation and buyer/seller strategies accordingly. Market Matters, with Matt and Adam, will address these deeper more market fundamental issues in the January episode.

Our first episode of Market Matters delivers a 30-minute discussion on current economic, lending and real estate market conditions. We focus on how consumers should think about this market and assess whether buying or selling in wise for them right now. And, if so, why and specifically what has changed in how they need to be approaching this market. Buyers have different opportunities than they did just six months ago. Sellers need a different commitment level to preparation, pricing, patience and partnership than they did six months ago. All of that is briefly unpacked and for you to share as a benefit for your clients.