UBS On-Air: Market Moves

With the June 1 deadline quickly approaching next week, we update you on the latest developments surrounding debt-ceiling negotiations, including what to look out for over the next several days. We also highlight events taking place across Washington DC to recognize and honor the Memorial Day holiday. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Bill Scapell, Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities, Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the case for seeking opportunity outside of the US, this despite resilient economic conditions and performance in risk assets YTD. We identify what to watch out for during the second-half of 2023, including the factors that could disrupt economic and market conditions. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The data calendar is relatively uninspiring. There is the debt ceiling farce in the US, but this is almost never worth commenting on. The Federal Reserve did reveal itself to be significantly divided over the direction of policy in its minutes. Fed Governor Waller was also playing verbal hopscotch and talking about skips, rather than pauses. It is times like these that strong leadership and a clearly articulated economic philosophy really add value. Never mind.

Our conversation identifies some strategies to help answer that very question. We also cover what’s top of mind for retirees and ‘soon-to-be’ retirees, and how the macroeconomic environment is altering spending, investing, and saving patterns. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Matt Sommer, Head of Specialist Consulting Group, Janus Henderson Investors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK April consumer price inflation fell (as expected) but by a little less than expected. Further up the supply chain, producer prices fell (as expected) but by more than expected. Food price inflation barely moved, which is likely to keep the focus on profit-led inflation pressures. Recent price discounts were too late to affect this data release.

Our conversation brings you up to speed on where negotiations currently stand, including a look at potential areas of compromise. We also outline CIO’s base case scenario and speak to the investment implications. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s central bank speak confirmed whatever you thought about central bank policy before the cacophony of comment. The ECB speakers behaved like they were on autopilot because they are (unfortunately) automatically raising rates. The Federal Reserve hawks were hawkish, the doves were dovish, and those in the middle were even handed.

Our conversation walks you through the June UBS House View Investment Strategy Guide, along with outlines why the odds of the secular bull case scenario playing out are on the rise (and the investment implications to be mindful of). Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

No fewer than 11 global central bankers are jostling for attention from the world’s media today. The message from all this central bank babble is likely to be confusion. We are close to monetary policy turning points, in the middle of structural upheaval, with data which is less reliable. In such circumstances, there is a risk that gut instinct and pre-conceived ideas play as much of a role as analysis when it comes to policy comments.

Our conversation updates you on debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington DC, along with offers a recap of this week’s notable macro data releases, ranging from housing to retail sales. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

The Messages in Focus are a set of high-conviction investment narratives that combine our top views across asset class preferences, short, medium, and longer-term themes, and alternatives. Learn more from Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The drone of central bank speak dominates the calendar again. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but markets are unlikely to care. Federal Reserve President Williams is another matter—Williams represents a voice of intellectual economic leadership at the Fed.

Our conversation covers the latest on where debt-ceiling negotiations stand and what to expect in the coming days and weeks. We also preview the G-7 meeting as part of President Biden’s visit to Asia, and provide some highlights from OpenAI CEO’s testimony to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The calendar is crowded with a pontification of central banks. Central bank speak these days tends to confirm investors’ pre-existing prejudices. The world is becoming increasingly complex and data is increasingly unreliable. Certainty, even economists’ certainty, has necessarily declined. However Twitter wants everything expressed as an absolute in a soundbite. This allows investors to select the quotes that fit their view of the world.

Our conversation spotlights opportunities across the emerging markets, particularly for those with a longer-term horizon. We update on some regulatory developments as it relates to automobile emissions across the EU and US. We also touch on what’s on the minds of shareholders with highlights from the 2023 proxy season and discuss ways to drive change through investing. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Geeta Aiyer, Founder and President of Boston Common Asset Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Japanese first quarter growth was stronger. Better consumer durable goods demand was part of this, where Japan is an outlier amongst developed economies. Having been the last major economy to reopen from the pandemic, the post-pandemic consumer patterns were delayed in Japan. Exports of goods were not so robust, suggesting international consumers continue to pivot from goods towards services.

As debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington DC continue, we break down the latest developments and highlight the implications to the municipal bond market. We also highlight some muni-related portfolio themes to consider. Featured is Kathleen McNamara, Senior Municipal Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US retail sales give a glimpse into the hedonism of the US household. This is April data—too soon for consumers to feel any consequences from banking system volatility. Any credit tightening hurts consumers when they try to increase their credit card limits, not when they are spending the limits they already have. Industrial production is also due, but globally the US matters more as a consumer than a producer.