UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Our conversation sheds light on recent debates as to whether India is poised to economically overtake China. We outline the challenges to be mindful of facing both countries, along with the areas of strength and considerations when it comes to investing. Featured is Chi Amaechi, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The “anecdotal evidence” of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers some heightened interest, with mixed messages about whether the June meeting will pause in the relentless “hike, hike, hike” cycle. While the US economy has not been as bad as pessimists suggested, the stockpile of savings has been used more quickly than thought, suggesting moderating activity.

In the wake of a debt-ceiling deal having been reached over the weekend, we outline the terms and talk about what it all means for the markets. We also identify factors over the next few months that could influence investor sentiment and the direction of markets, including the May inflation prints and the Fed’s course for monetary policy. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US debt ceiling face limps towards a conclusion. There is the normal posturing by politicians, but markets are optimistic that political extremists will be kept at bay and the deal will pass. In Congress, the House rules committee discusses the procedure ahead of a vote on the agreement tomorrow.

There has been an agreement to end the US debt ceiling farce (for now). The bill still has to pass Congress. This is not a “successful” conclusion to the nonsense. The issue will come up again, as the debt ceiling has not been abolished. While the economic impact of the compromise is limited, politicians’ time has been wasted in creating a solution. Worse still, economists’ time has been wasted in talking about this. Unnecessary risk and uncertainty has been added to a slowing economy.

With the June 1 deadline quickly approaching next week, we update you on the latest developments surrounding debt-ceiling negotiations, including what to look out for over the next several days. We also highlight events taking place across Washington DC to recognize and honor the Memorial Day holiday. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Featured are Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Bill Scapell, Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities, Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the case for seeking opportunity outside of the US, this despite resilient economic conditions and performance in risk assets YTD. We identify what to watch out for during the second-half of 2023, including the factors that could disrupt economic and market conditions. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The data calendar is relatively uninspiring. There is the debt ceiling farce in the US, but this is almost never worth commenting on. The Federal Reserve did reveal itself to be significantly divided over the direction of policy in its minutes. Fed Governor Waller was also playing verbal hopscotch and talking about skips, rather than pauses. It is times like these that strong leadership and a clearly articulated economic philosophy really add value. Never mind.

Our conversation identifies some strategies to help answer that very question. We also cover what’s top of mind for retirees and ‘soon-to-be’ retirees, and how the macroeconomic environment is altering spending, investing, and saving patterns. Featured are Ainsley Carbone, Total Wealth Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Matt Sommer, Head of Specialist Consulting Group, Janus Henderson Investors. Host: Daniel Cassidy

UK April consumer price inflation fell (as expected) but by a little less than expected. Further up the supply chain, producer prices fell (as expected) but by more than expected. Food price inflation barely moved, which is likely to keep the focus on profit-led inflation pressures. Recent price discounts were too late to affect this data release.

Our conversation brings you up to speed on where negotiations currently stand, including a look at potential areas of compromise. We also outline CIO’s base case scenario and speak to the investment implications. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s central bank speak confirmed whatever you thought about central bank policy before the cacophony of comment. The ECB speakers behaved like they were on autopilot because they are (unfortunately) automatically raising rates. The Federal Reserve hawks were hawkish, the doves were dovish, and those in the middle were even handed.

Our conversation walks you through the June UBS House View Investment Strategy Guide, along with outlines why the odds of the secular bull case scenario playing out are on the rise (and the investment implications to be mindful of). Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

No fewer than 11 global central bankers are jostling for attention from the world’s media today. The message from all this central bank babble is likely to be confusion. We are close to monetary policy turning points, in the middle of structural upheaval, with data which is less reliable. In such circumstances, there is a risk that gut instinct and pre-conceived ideas play as much of a role as analysis when it comes to policy comments.

Our conversation updates you on debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington DC, along with offers a recap of this week’s notable macro data releases, ranging from housing to retail sales. We also preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Mike Gourd, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.

The Messages in Focus are a set of high-conviction investment narratives that combine our top views across asset class preferences, short, medium, and longer-term themes, and alternatives. Learn more from Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The drone of central bank speak dominates the calendar again. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but markets are unlikely to care. Federal Reserve President Williams is another matter—Williams represents a voice of intellectual economic leadership at the Fed.

Our conversation covers the latest on where debt-ceiling negotiations stand and what to expect in the coming days and weeks. We also preview the G-7 meeting as part of President Biden’s visit to Asia, and provide some highlights from OpenAI CEO’s testimony to Congress. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy