UBS On-Air: Market Moves

With yet another Presidential election cycle underway, the UBS Chief Investment Office has launched the ElectionWatch publication series to keep you informed on the progression of ‘Decision 2024’. We spend time outlining key policy priorities, provide tips for investors on how to navigate the cycle, and more. Plus, a timely look into this week’s historic developments within the US House of Representatives, and what the next several weeks might have in store leading up to the November deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government. Featured is Tom McLoughlin, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Members of the US Congress are now incapable of doing anything. Financial markets are not surprised that members of the US Congress are incapable of doing anything. Former Speaker McCarthy confirmed he will not run again for Speaker. Investors only care whether House Republicans can get the extreme wing under control long enough to elect a speaker before the next government shutdown in mid-November.

We reflect on developments from over the past two weeks, such as notable economic data releases, the September FOMC meeting, and the sharp rise in longer maturity interest rates, and the impacts being felt across financial markets. We also touch on a market outlook and recommendations when it comes to asset allocation. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The UK British Retail Consortium reported “fierce competition” (otherwise known as “competition”) driving falling food prices. Profit-led inflation, which tends to occur at the end of supply chains, may be in decline. Competition did not lower prices earlier, because consumers were sold a story that oil prices, global shortages, or the war in Ukraine caused inflation. Consumers are not now prepared to believe those stories, and profits and prices are under pressure.

The US government shutdown has been delayed—but in the meantime, journalists and (more importantly) economists have had to waste time analyzing this nonsense. The uncertainty the fiscal farce periodically creates also carries an economic cost.

We recap the week that was, including performance across fixed income markets, an update on negotiations to avert a shutdown of the US government, and more. Plus, preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Japan’s disinflation was on display with the Tokyo consumer price measure for September. As ever, local factors are important (service sector inflation was softened by weaker hotel prices, for instance). Retail sales seem to have a slowing momentum, which may keep domestically determined inflation pressures in check.

With the deadline to avert a shutdown of the US government only a few days away, Shane brings us up to speed on the latest as to where negotiations stand and how the next few days might unfold. We also touch on the impact of a government shutdown to services and the potential duration. Plus, takeaways from the second GOP Presidential debate. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

German and Spanish preliminary September consumer price inflation is due. Energy prices are a focus of course, but transitory durable goods price inflation should continue to exert disinflation pressure. Controlling profit-led inflation pressures were an early focus in Spain, and will naturally be a fading disinflation force. They are still an issue in Germany.

We touch on takeaways from the 2023 voter proxy season, the overall health of the ESG, Sustainable fund landscape, as well as sustainability themes to consider for your portfolio. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Officer, and Dan Roarty, Chief Investment Officer for Sustainable Thematic Equities at AllianceBernstein. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US fiscal farce continues, with government shutdown increasingly likely. A short-lived shutdown damages the US economy, but middle-income families have some immunity (it is middle-income spending that is softening the soft economic landing). The rest of the world cares less about this type of US growth slowdown as the US government does not import much. The rest of the world cares whether US consumers are spending.

David joins us back in studio to share his thoughts on the shape of the US economy, relative to other regions, along with expectations for monetary policy and an outlook for equities. We also dive into allocation preferences across equities, fixed income and more. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and David Bianco, Chief Investment Officer Americas, DWS Group. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The World Trade Monitor reported an accelerated drop in July trade volumes (implying a faster drop in trade share of the world economy). Spending on fun is a service sector thing (though there may be some new clothes bought along the way). Some of this is down to the fact that the 2021 surge in goods demand has cannibalized future demand. Some of this may be a structural break in consumption patterns favoring services.

A fireside chat on the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around asset allocation with Jeffrey Gundlach, the Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A quiet data calendar is more of an issue for markets than in the past. The trashing of forward guidance by some central banks means that day-to-day data releases have assumed more importance for investors. Under Greenspan, Bernanke, or Yellen, markets had a long-term policy framework and a rogue data item could be downplayed. This is not the case with the Powell Federal Reserve.

A few months ago, achieving an economic ‘soft landing’ seemed a challenging task. Inflation was well above target, the labor market was extraordinarily tight, and the financial system was straining under the pressure of higher interest rates. Now today, while a ‘soft landing’ is certainly not yet assured, the economy does look like it much closer to being back ‘in balance’. In our view this creates an opportune moment for investors across asset classes. And in today’s CIO Livestream, we will discuss why, where, and how to put money to work today.

Our conversation recaps the week that was, including a review of the September Fed policy decision, key economic data releases, and an update on the UAW strike. Plus, we preview what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Americas. Host: Shiavon Chatman

As the annual UN General Assembly comes to a close, we recap some notable themes and focuses from this year’s gathering, along with update you on the latest with respect to negotiations to avoid a US government shutdown. We also touch on some geopolitical points of interest, including Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Federal Affairs Manager, UBS US Office of Public Policy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Cohen, Global Head of Developed Credit, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy