UBS On-Air: Market Moves

German October factory orders were weaker—although (being Germany) earlier data was revised stronger. Switching from spending on goods to spending on fun continues. Germany has a strong reputation as an exporter of goods. It has a relatively less strong reputation as an exporter of fun.

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for equities and where opportunity can be found. Featured is David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Our series of year ahead conversations continues as we focus on an outlook for equities and where opportunity can be found. Featured is David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There is a day of rather dubious data ahead. The US job vacancy numbers are based on a survey with a response rate so low it should not really be published. The data also only records a subset of job vacancies, and the collective mid-life crisis experienced by US workers in recent years has distorted the reporting of the numbers.

Our conversation breaks down the factors that matter for the market outlook over the near-term, namely the Fed’s policy course, and explains the drivers behind the recent November ‘everything rally’. We also cover considerations when it comes to positioning over the near-term. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

There are reports of missile and drone attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea. There may be a tendency to regard this as an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, but the attacks seem to be quite small scale and markets are not inclined to price in much additional risk. Oil trade and thus the oil price will be the focus. While container ships were among those targeted, trade in goods continues to slow and is less of a market concern.

With the temporary ceasefire ended, we discuss how the Israel-Hamas War might evolve from here. We also cover some recent developments up on Capitol Hill and reflect on the legacy of late Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We reflect on recent fixed income sector performance and dive into a year-ahead outlook, along with a review of fixed income positioning. Plus, a preview of what you can expect in the week ahead. Featured are Frank Sileo and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

European and US inflation numbers again surprised the markets by coming in lower than expected. The ending of the 2021–22 transitory inflation was very rapid (in the US, durable goods inflation went from record high to deflation within nine months). It may be that the ending of profit-led inflation is similarly fast. This does, of course, mean that real central bank interest rates are rising more rapidly—and the full effect of past monetary tightening has yet to be felt.

Yesterday’s German and Spanish consumer price inflation was lower than markets had expected, and the figures fit with the idea that profit-led inflation is coming to an end. Profit-led inflation works until it does not—once consumers realize price increases are less about fairness and more about margin expansion, they use the force of their spending power and form a rebel alliance. Companies then have to scramble to shore up customer loyalty.

Kevin Dennean joins us in-studio to explain the opportunity set behind the new Tactical US Equity Theme, ‘Select semis’, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. We also cover the cyclicality of semiconductor revenue growth, industry risks, current demand trends, and more. Featured is Kevin Dennean, Technology and Communications Services Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist with UBS Asset Management.

We get Spanish and German preliminary November consumer price inflation data today. Spanish data is expected to be stable, with a little more disinflation in Germany. Markets have, perhaps, recently become used to the idea that consumer price inflation surprises by being lower than expected. Durable goods price disinflation and resistance to profit-led inflation should push down on the headline number, but fading energy subsidies should slow disinflation forces in the coming months.

Hosted by Liam McCormick, Senior Strategist, UBS Family Advisory and Philanthropy Services

The extension of the ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war is, of course, primarily a humanitarian concern. Investors may interpret this as lessening the risks that the conflict broadens to the wider region.

After a quiet holiday week, investors are gearing up for the final few weeks of the year. We discuss what this final stretch might have in store for the markets and how that sets the stage for 2024. Plus, thoughts on the US consumer and the holiday spending season. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

ECB President Lagarde testifies before the European Parliament. A central bank head speaking to the legislature is something markets often care about, but we hear so frequently from Lagarde that the chances of her saying anything original are very low.

With US consumers consuming, the day ahead for markets looks subdued. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but this is the fourth time in two weeks we have heard from Lagarde. It seems unlikely that she will add anything markets care to hear.

US consumers are gearing up for the most important celebration on the national calendar; Black Friday sales. Increasing consumer awareness of profit-led inflation may shift focus from flashy headline discount numbers to the question “is this price lower than it was a year ago?”. Deflation of durable goods means that for big ticket items the answer is probably “yes”.

Since the COVID pandemic of 2020, we’ve entered a new world: One defined by economic, social and political uncertainty - but also profound technological change. 2023 was a historic year for markets. Bond yields reached their highest level in more than 15 years. The first trillion-dollar artificial intelligence company was crowned. And the US economy powered ahead, confounding expectations. What can we expect in the year and decade ahead?