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UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Business & Economics Podcasts

UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior

Location:

United States

Description:

UBS On-Air: Market Moves brings you beyond the highs and lows of the ticker, with conversations that can broaden your thinking about market behavior

Language:

English


Episodes

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Reasons to rush rate cuts'

2/23/2024
Federal Reserve governor Waller suggested there was “no rush” to cut rates. There is no absolute urgency, but there are three counter arguments. Real rates for businesses and consumers have risen significantly since last July. Any lingering US inflation is mainly confined to Texas and Florida, not the whole country. And saying there is “no rush” is unlikely to be appreciated by struggling lower income households.

Duration:00:04:53

Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Tapering the tightening

2/22/2024
We examine a potential timeline for the Fed to commence Quantitative Tightening, including the criteria which needs to be met, and how fixed income markets might respond to such a policy shift. We also review allocation preferences within the asset class, and highlight recent performance drivers. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and John Murtah, Fixed Income Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Duration:00:16:01

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Back to the Future II'

2/22/2024
The Federal Reserve minutes offered some clarity on future Fed policy. The tone is consistent with rate cuts and a soft economic landing. The Fed does not want rising real interest rates with a slowing economy. Disinflation trends were discussed (economists selectively adjust data to better identify these trends).

Duration:00:06:00

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Communicating more clearly'

2/21/2024
The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and markets will care. The US is approaching changes in both monetary and quantitative policies. Fed Chair Powell seemingly lacks the communication skills of his predecessors, so markets are easily pushed about by shifting policy expectations. The minutes offer a more considered view of where policy should be heading.

Duration:00:04:36

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Wages should be rising'

2/20/2024
The ECB releases a negotiated wage settlement index. ECB President Lagarde has repeatedly highlighted wages as a factor determining policy moves. Real wages should be rising—after so long a period of weak wage growth, rebalancing is needed. Rising real wages should not be seen as an automatic cost pressure for inflation—changing working habits and automation have increased productivity, allowing companies to pay workers more in exchange for more output.

Duration:00:04:45

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview

2/19/2024
Before we start this holiday-shortened trading week, we first reflect on last week’s market moving macro data and assess current equity market valuations. Plus, we preview what you can expect over the next four days. Featured is Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Duration:00:09:00

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Having fun cheaply?'

2/19/2024
The ending of the lunar new year holiday has people focusing on China’s domestic demand. The number of trips rose above pre-pandemic levels, but early indications are that the amount of money spent per trip was subdued. As with developed economies, China’s consumers want to see friends and family, and have fun. Unlike developed economies, there seems a bias to having fun cheaply.

Duration:00:04:18

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Consumers consuming'

2/16/2024
US producer price inflation is due. This does not have the political importance of consumer price data. It matters because most companies sell to other companies (not end-consumers). It is also mercifully free of the fiction of owners’ equivalent rent. However, producer prices do not tend to capture profit-led inflation, which hits at the end of supply chains.

Duration:00:05:28

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'What’s in a name? It’s recession time'

2/15/2024
Japan’s population fell 0.44% last year. Fewer people make and consumer fewer things. Japan’s economy had a second quarter of economic contraction at the end of 2023, but in the context of a declining population this is less surprising.

Duration:00:05:27

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Spending power improves'

2/14/2024
Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation rate slowed slightly less than expected—in the world of hashtag economics that was “hot” and a cue for hysteria. In reality, the fictitious owners’ equivalent rent drove most of the inflation. Moreover, inflation is geographically concentrated. For homeowners in most of the US, inflation in reality (excluding OER) is around 2%—bad luck if you live in Texas or Florida, where it is approaching 5%.

Duration:00:05:15

CIO First Take: January CPI print with Brian Rose

2/13/2024
Following this morning's release of the January CPI print, Senior Economist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, Brian Rose, drops by to share his thoughts on the data release and the broader US economy.

Duration:00:04:01

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Where do markets go from here?

2/13/2024
With the S&P 500 having topped the 5,000 level late last week, investors are curious as to how markets might evolve from here. Jason provides his take on the road ahead, along with updates on the Q4 reporting season and previews this week’s inflation data. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Duration:00:15:50

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation in the real world'

2/13/2024
The Truth About Inflation is a complex subject, worthy of a book. The challenge for economists with today’s US consumer price data is stripping away the fiction to get at the reality. The largest part of the consumer price index is owners’ equivalent rent, which rose 6.3% in December. It is a price no one pays, and it means middle-income homeowners have a lower cost of living increase and thus more spending power.

Duration:00:04:40

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Perception and reality'

2/12/2024
Former US President Trump was making some strongly pro-Russia comments over the weekend, in the wake of increasingly hostile rhetoric toward China. Markets to date are largely unmoved. Investors are not yet prepared to price scenarios for the November elections. While defence and trade policy fall under presidential commander in chief powers, fiscal policy will depend on Congress as well as the White House.

Duration:00:05:08

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview

2/9/2024
To close out a busy week in the markets, Danny Kessler rejoins the podcast to share CIO’s view on renewed concerns about commercial real estate exposure at US banks. We also update on the Q4 corporate reporting season, review the week’s notable data releases, and preview the week ahead. Featured is Danny Kessler, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Duration:00:07:31

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'From deluge to desert'

2/9/2024
The calendar is quiet. The recent pattern of data deluge then data desert is unhelpful. In an increasingly complex world, overworked economists need time to examine the details of numbers to judge if they are reliable. Gaps in the calendar allow markets to speculate on irrelevant topics.

Duration:00:04:50

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'China’s deflation – a local affair'

2/8/2024
China’s consumer prices have been in deflation since last July (producer prices for far longer). January consumer price deflation was the worst in over 14 years, but this is distorted. The lunar new year is (literally) a moveable feast—occurring in January 2023, and in February 2024. That distorts food price patterns, exaggerating deflation. Nonetheless, deflation trend is indicative of weak domestic demand.

Duration:00:05:38

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade and economic nationalism'

2/7/2024
US December trade figures are due. Trade will be an increasing focus in 2024 as elections encourage economic nationalism. Structural changes are also adjusting trade patterns as the lengthy supply chains of the third industrial revolution appear unnecessarily complex given the technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. Geographic details of trade patterns are of interest, therefore. While the focus will be on imports (the US role as consumer of last resort is why it is the world’s most important economy), the US does still export and shifts there should not be overlooked.

Duration:00:05:02

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Vibe check

2/6/2024
In this week’s episode, Jason explains why the US economy’s ‘vibecession’ appears to be over and a ‘vibespansion’ has begun. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy and portfolio positioning. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

Duration:00:14:48

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Are rising equities a good thing?'

2/6/2024
There is a narrative that rising equity markets are good, and falling equity markets are bad. This is not true. Fairly valued equities are good, and bubbles or disorderly markets are bad. If the latest barrage of equity market measures by China’s government are aimed at correcting irrational pessimism and disorderly markets, they are economically beneficial. If they are driven by a desire to see equities higher just because they want equities higher, they are economically negative.

Duration:00:05:31