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Market Watch with Tom Waitt

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The Market Watch podcast and blog provide you with the benefit of my 30+ years experience as a stock market trader.

The Market Watch podcast and blog provide you with the benefit of my 30+ years experience as a stock market trader.
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Location:

United States

Description:

The Market Watch podcast and blog provide you with the benefit of my 30+ years experience as a stock market trader.

Language:

English


Episodes

INFLATION?

5/30/2012
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May_30th_2012.mp3 Inflation? Inflation or Deflation; too many dollars chasing too few goods or too many goods with too few dollars. Inflation Rate by Country (Click For Larger Picture) There is no shortage of dollars in the system with Global liquidity near all time highs. Note India's inflation rate of 7.23% leads the pack by double as that country is growing at over 7%; China is growing at over 8% but reports inflation of 3.4%. Most countries are in the 2 to 3% level in growth and...

Duration:00:02:03

BULLISH/BEARISH SENTIMENT

5/23/2012
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May_23rd_2012.mp3 Bullish/Bearish Sentiment Investors are at bearish extremes. Media reports of a bankrupt Greece and the possibility of their withdrawal from the Euro, a failed new issue of Facebook and the pending "Fiscal Cliff" capping off concerns as U.S. politicians continue to dig in along party lines. Contrarian Indicators:Bearish Small Investors (Click For Larger Picture) Markets move on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but lately it has been desperation, panic, despondency,...

Duration:00:01:56

GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY

5/16/2012
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May_16th_2012.mp3 Global MoneySupply Uncertainty rules, media moguls seize the opportunity to stress the worst case scenarios; Greece withdrawing from the Euro, falling off a Fiscal Cliff, China slowdown, plunging commodity prices. Global MoneySupply (Click For Larger Picture) Despite news reports there is solid growth and earnings coming out of recent data releases in the U.S. Pessimistic attitudes prevail influenced by media sensationalizing the negatives. Confidence is key, market...

Duration:00:02:04

GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

5/9/2012
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May_9th_2012.mp3 Global Unemployment Rates Europessimism has once again seized Global markets. Austerity measures causing even higher unemployment in southern European nations. Unemployment rates adjusted to U.S. concepts, 20 countires, seasonally adjusted, October 2010 - March 2012 (Click For Larger Picture) Elections in Greece and France have re-focused concerns on the forced contagion of austerity measures. Fear of inflation has lessened with gold falling below $1600. The economy and...

Duration:00:01:44

CHINA GROWTH

5/2/2012
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May_2nd_2012.mp3 China Growth Concerns over a slowdown in Chinese economic growth are misplaced. The growth is amazing and is likely to prevent a Global recession. ChinaGDP (Click For Larger Picture) Chinese GDP is currently $7.3 Trillion while the U.S. GDP level is $15.1 Trillion. Chinese GDP growth is about 8% currently the U.S. is roughly 2%. The real eye opener comes when one considers levels 5 years ago Chinese GDP was $3.28 Trillion and U.S. GDP $13.81 trillion. Chinese GDP has more...

Duration:00:02:16

GLOBAL GDP FORECAST

4/25/2012
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April_25th_2012.mp3 Global GDPForecast Global Growth is underway everywhere but the Eurozone, which has been hammered by austerity measures. Average Annual Growth Rate GDPForecast (Click For Larger Picture) Average annual growth rate forecasts are impressive on a Global basis. Eurozone countries are the exception and daily media reports encourage pessimistic attitudes focusing on the woes of Europe. Note the top two highest growth rates; over 8% in China and over 7% in India. China has...

Duration:00:01:49

RECORD EARNINGS

4/18/2012
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April_18th_2012.mp3 RecordEarnings U.S. equities are strong while Canadian markets can not surpass last year's highs. It is time to diversify at least half your positions south of the border. SP500 Earnings (Click For Larger Picture) Despite European woes and political infighting there are pockets of strength in U.S. markets. Indeed earnings of SP 500 stocks are at an all time record high. Global positioning is changing right before our eyes, the once mighty Eurozone which was a contender...

Duration:00:02:18

TAXING MARKETS

4/11/2012
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April_11th_2012.mp3 Taxing Markets Nothing is certain but Death Taxes! Once again it's tax time, it could be worse, individual tax rates are 48 % higher in Spain, 40% higher in France. Individual Tax Rates 2008-2012 (Click For Larger Picture) Tax obligations and the financial health of Euro-zone countries continue to weigh on Global Markets despite improving economic news. So far this year U.S. equities have risen 8.8% and pulled back half that gain over the last five days. The Dow Jones...

Duration:00:01:45

ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT

4/4/2012
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April_4th_2012.mp3 ADPEmployment Report Global money flows are seeking a safe harbor moving into the U.S. Dollar displacing Gold as a store of value. ADPEmployment Report (Click For Larger Picture) The U.S Economy is seen as the safer economy in the World with low interest rates an accommodating Central Bank and improving employment levels. Global participants are buying dollars leaving other currencies including gold now off over $300 from recent highs. Global markets are in disarray,...

Duration:00:02:18

CREDIT CRUNCH

3/28/2012
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March_28th_2012.mp3 CreditCrunch O.K. the markets are acting well U.S. stocks are up over 12% so far in 2012; Canadian equities are up 5.4%. The years of uncertainty and fear and constant media reports of negative breaking news are fading. But what the heck happened? U.S. Total Credit MarketDebt Sector Share Breakdown (Click For Larger Picture) Stocks are in recovery mode and despite low volume and near non-existent retail demand U.S. equities are on course to challenge all time highs. But...

Duration:00:02:16

TIMES A CHANGIN

3/21/2012
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March_21st_2012.mp3 Times a Changin Interest Rates are starting to rise; Bonds which performed well in 2011 have lost principal value over the last 6 months. 10 Year T-Note (Click For Larger Picture) Ten year U.S. treasuries performed well in 2011 rising 15% in principal value despite falling coupon returns of less than 2%. Recent moves have taken coupon returns to 2.4% in the last 6 months eroding 5% of bond holders principal. Normal 10 year interest rates historically are 7%; if rates...

Duration:00:02:02

IMPROVING DATA

3/14/2012
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March_14th_2012.mp3 ImprovingData Improving economic indicators increase confidence reversing negative media reports. Jobless claims fall to four year lows. U.S. Jobless Claims (Click For Larger Picture) Over the last decade uncertainty and fear has ruled, media reports have caused the markets to climb a wall of worry. Recent economic data is turning positive; The U.S. unemployment rate is seen holding at a three-year low of 8.3% in February. U.S. weekly jobless claims hitting a four year...

Duration:00:01:54

CONSOLIDATION

3/7/2012
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March_7th_2012.mp3 Consolidation Three years after hitting a low The Dow Jones Industrial Index has doubled in value. Yesterday Global equities fell. Is it time to panic? Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Three years ago March 6th 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6,469 a week ago we hit 13,055.75 more than double. The advance had corrections along the way 14.6% in the spring of 2010, and 19.2% in the summer of 2011. So far in 2012 stocks advanced 6.9% and...

Duration:00:01:58

INCREASED CONFIDENCE

2/28/2012
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February_28th_2012.mp3 Increased Confidence Consumer confidence soared in February to 70.8% from 61.5% the highest level in a year. Nightly news casts are less pessimistic. Equities south of the border have surpassed 2011 highs. UnitedStates Consumer Confidence (Click For Larger Picture) Confidence is key, U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 70.8% in February up sharply from levels of low 40's a few months ago. There are many ways to analyze the market; Technical analysis studying various...

Duration:00:01:40

CHALLENGING THE HIGHS

2/22/2012
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February_22nd_2012.mp3 Challenging the Highs Last year the SP 500 stock index doubled from the lows set in 2009. Fear and bearish forecasts still surrounded equity markets pushing the SP 500 index down 22% late in 2011. We are now back to the 2011 high and set to challenge all time highs. SP500 Index (Click For Larger Picture) After doubling the SP 500 index in 2011 from lows in 2009, the market fell 22% on European woes and Global debt concerns. News media and many market pundits remained...

Duration:00:02:09

OUT OF THE FRYING PAN, INTO THE FIRE

2/15/2012
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February_15th_2012.mp3 Out of the Frying Pan,Into the Fire Interest Rates are historically low but have been lower. Many investors could jump out the frying pan and into the fire. 30 Year US T-Bond Yield (Click For Larger Picture) In early 2009 after losing 57% in stocks many investors ran into 30 year U.S treasuries only to lose 25% in late 2009. Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Historically through thousands of years it has been found the normal rate of interest is 7%. If we move...

Duration:00:01:56

EMOTIONAL OUTBURST

2/8/2012
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February_8th_2012.mp3 Emotional Outburst Market emotion is turning positive. Despite media reports of a bankrupt Greece and rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development and Syrian suppression of another Arab spring. MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. It appears we are gaining confidence, with confidence you can reach...

Duration:00:01:45

CLEAR AND SUNNY

2/1/2012
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February_1st_2012.mp3 Clear and Sunny Here comes the sun, the ice is slowly melting, it seems like years since it's been clear, the Beatles forecasted the current thaw of pessimism that has enveloped media and market pundits alike. Growth and profits are occurring south of our border. U.S.GDPGrowth Rate (Click For Larger Picture) The panic that set in on the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown caused stocks to crash down and left investors losing a decade of performance. Fears elevated to panic...

Duration:00:02:15

CONFIDENCE RISING

1/25/2012
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January_25th_2012.mp3 Confidence Rising Uncertainty is waning, confidence is increasing and corporate earnings are up. Nightly news casts are less pessimistic. Consumer Confidence (Click For Larger Picture) Money Multiplier (Click For Larger Picture) Confidence is key, U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 64.5 last month up sharply from levels of low 40's a few months ago. Investors are starting to believe markets will achieve higher levels through increased economic activity. Money supply is...

Duration:00:01:51

INFLATION ? / DEFLATION ?

1/18/2012
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January_18th_2012.mp3 Inflation ? / Deflation ? Inflation or Deflation; too many dollars chasing too few goods or too many goods with too few dollars. Consumer Price Index (Click For Larger Picture) Tomorrow the Consumer Price Index will be released for 2011. For those that remember the 80's with the Consumer Prices rising 14%, current levels are likely to show a mild 3.2% indeed there is a near-term risk of flipping to deflation with European concerns and the World Bank reducing its...

Duration:00:02:10