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The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast

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The Vancouver Life podcast exists to educate, inspire, entertain, add value, challenge and ultimately provide guidance to its listeners when it comes to Vancouver Real Estate.




The Vancouver Life podcast exists to educate, inspire, entertain, add value, challenge and ultimately provide guidance to its listeners when it comes to Vancouver Real Estate.






Comparing Toronto & Vancouver Real Estate Markets

This week we dive deep into the real estate landscapes of Toronto and Vancouver, Canada's largest real estate cities with Merete Lewis, an Agent with Chestnut Peak Real Estate out of Toronto. We dissect the recent trends and statistics that are shaping both property markets and we look at which city is fairing better under the current economic climate. In Toronto, the month of October witnessed a notable softening in home sales, hitting levels not seen since 1995, with less than 5000 sales. Despite this, immigration remains robust, creating a dynamic where the market feels akin to holding a beach ball underwater. As we explore the data, we unveil a deepening Buyer's market in both cities with new listings surging and inventory reaching levels not seen since 2012. With the Housing Price Index (HPI) on a multi month decline, those looking for a deal may soon find one. Shifting our focus to Vancouver, a decline in sales of 13% in September and October has continued into November, resulting in a 19% downturn. Despite flat new listings, the sales-to-new-listings ratio indicates a declining price environment, favouring buyers. The counter-seasonal increase in inventory for the first time in 20 years, coupled with a consecutive decline in the HPI, suggests a market that is adjusting. While prices are currently 5% higher than last year, the trend indicates a nuanced situation. As we navigate through these statistics, we aim to validate the trends by comparing them to real stories on the ground. We delve into questions surrounding market sentiment, the impact of recent economic changes, and the challenges faced by both buyers and sellers. Reflecting on our previous discussion about the similarities between Toronto and Vancouver, we observe how both markets bounced back in the spring but have since experienced shifts. Toronto, in particular, faced challenges in October, which was only marginally better than the previous year after significant rate hikes. The sentiment has changed, and the market has transitioned into a much slower market. Our conversation extends to specific queries about the Toronto condo market. With headlines portraying a challenging scenario, we seek to uncover the real story. Are investors assigning condos at lower values or walking away from deals? How is the market responding to the current conditions? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Supply Is The Solution

In a significant move to boost housing supply, the federal government has unveiled a groundbreaking initiative following six months of record-high rental rates. A substantial $1.2 billion in low-interest loans is earmarked for the construction of 2,644 rental homes across seven new projects in Toronto. This aligns with Toronto's ambitious plan to build 65,000 new rent-controlled homes by 2030, with funds totalling $30-40 billion, or approximately $500,000 per home. While these measures address the supply issue, their impact may not be felt for 5-10 years. Shifting to the pre-sale market, the surge is noticeable as resale inventory lags below averages. Over 3,500 pre-sale units hit the market in October across 20 projects, marking the largest release in 2023. With an anticipated 1,450 units in November, the absorption rate in October was 27%, slightly below the typical 30% for this season. The looming question: will investors retreat due to the Airbnb ban? In the US, the annual inflation rate slowed to 3.2% in October 2023, surpassing market forecasts. Despite a 4.5% drop in energy costs, housing expenses accounted for over 70% of inflation. The positive outcome boosted the stock market, with the S&P experiencing its best day since April, the Dow rising 500 points, and the Canada 5-year bond dropping by 20 bps. Keep an eye out for Canada's announcements on November 21 and December 19. National headlines from major news outlets paint a picture of the housing market entering a 'hibernation' phase, echoing a slowdown in sales, listings, and flat prices. While October saw a 17% decline in home sales below pre-pandemic levels, regions are affected differently. Ontario and British Columbia are entering a buyer's market, with moderately lower prices predicted by economists. Conversely, Alberta remains the outlier as Calgary's benchmark prices rose by 9.4% in the past year. Despite high rates, market activity suggests prices are generally holding, though sellers are adapting to collaborate closely with buyers. Now, turning to the unique landscape of the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD), despite 20 months of rising interest rates and a 35% decrease in buying power, home prices have only dropped 5% since the peak, up 6% from a year ago. Over 1 million mortgages have renewed with rates 2-3 times higher, yet no significant increase in mortgage arrears is noted. With less than 1% of listings as court-ordered sales and inventory 25% below long-term averages, the GVRD market remains remarkably stable, evidenced by average prices rising $10,000 and median prices up $5,000 halfway through November. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Developers Pulling Back As Governments Demand More Housing

In this week's episode, we delve into the very challenging landscape faced by developers across major Canadian cities, a slowing national economy, more job losses and slowing GDP all the while we see some of the highest rental rates on record. We start with the gripping tale of a Toronto-based developer embroiled in a receivership debacle, owing creditors a staggering $200 million, putting their ambitious Mimico project in jeopardy. The ambitious plan promised to transform the Mimico Triangle with an expansive mixed-use space including condos, greenways, retail, and office spaces. As the situation escalates, we can't help but feel the intensity of the struggle faced by these builders. Shifting gears to Vancouver, we uncover a web of rumors surrounding some of the city's prominent developers. Amidst a plethora of unpaid bills and multiple lawsuits, the company is fervently denying any financial trouble, with various claimants yet to prove these allegations in court. However, this is not the first time this prominent developer has faced legal issues, with previous lawsuits marring their reputation across various buildings. Amidst these troubling developments, we uncover the larger challenges facing developers in the current market. With high-interest rates impacting the industry, several projects, including one in the Metrotown area and another in East Vancouver, are struggling to meet sales targets. Seeing projects for sale and others pausing or cancelling altogether, the landscape has changed drastically from just a few years ago. Even as governments advocate for affordable housing, the reality on the ground seems far from supportive. Developers are caught between the stringent demands of the market and the need to provide viable housing solutions. Adding to the mounting pressures, the recent spike in development cost charges in Metro Vancouver has added to the financial burdens, leaving developers and eventually their Buyers grappling with how to deal with these costs. Despite the efforts to combat the housing affordability crisis, the recent move by the British Columbia government mandating high-density, transit-oriented developments has its own set of challenges and implications, further adding to the complexities faced by developers. As the economic landscape continues to fluctuate, with employment rates and sales figures witnessing a decline, the impact on the housing market is palpable. Toronto's housing market is facing its lowest sales since 1995, with inventory levels soaring to unprecedented heights. Similarly, the rental rates across Canada, particularly in Vancouver and Burnaby, have hit new highs - again! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


How Did Rental Rates Get So High?

In a recent article, Doug Porter, Chief Economist for BMO, revealed a startling reality: rents in Canada have surged by 8.2% year over year, marking the fastest pace since 1983! Moreover, for the first time in 60 years of records, income growth has trailed behind rents by a significant margin. These figures set the stage for a profound discussion with local Property Manager and founder of Greater Vancouver Tenant and Property Managment, Keaton Bessey. Adding to the narrative, November's Report from highlights that the annual rate of rent growth in Canada was 9.9% in October, the second-fastest increase in the past seven months. Vancouver leads the pack with astonishing average rent of $2,872 for a 1-bedroom and $3,777 for a 2-bedroom, while Burnaby closely follows, surpassing Toronto at $2,647 for a 1-bedroom and $3,341 for a 2-bedroom. Armed with these facts, we delve into a series of questions with our esteemed guest, a seasoned property manager with 13 years of experience, to unravel the mystery of how we got to this point and whether it was an inevitable outcome as soon as home home prices began their surge. We shed light on the potential impact of the current economic conditions on the rental market and with signs pointing to a slowing economy, we explore whether lower GDP output and a possible recession could be key factors affecting rental prices. Will an economic downturn slow down rent increases, or is it fundamentally a supply-related concern? On the more contentious topic of rent controls, particularly in Vancouver, where opinions are divided, Keaton provides unique insights into whether rent controls work, and if not, what alternative solutions might exist to address the soaring rents and the city's distinction of having the highest average rent in the country. We also look at rent collection under the current economic climate as it's a great indicator of where the economy lies as well as we look examples of renters breaking leases and what it means for both tenants and landlords. We also put Keaton on the spot as we ask him to peer into his crystal ball as we explore predictions on future rental rates. Will they go up or down, and what factors contribute to this projection? Finally, the conversation touches on immigration and its impact on the rental market. Despite staggering immigration numbers, we explore why many newcomers don't transact until they earn their permanent residency as well as touching on how to rent to new commers and the steps you should take as a landlord to protect yourself. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Vancouver Real Estate Market Update For October 2023

This week in real estate, the landscape has been bustling with significant developments that are set to impact the Canadian market extensively over time. First off, the announcement made by David Eby regarding the sweeping rezoning legislation across the entire province has stirred things up. The legislation now permits the construction of multifamily units on any single-family lot, effectively transforming the housing prospects across British Columbia. This move comes in response to the record-high immigration figures, with the immigration minister affirming they will increase immigration to 500,000 people next year and then they will maintain that target for the next three years! In the United States, the Federal Reserve has also decided to hold its current interest rate, reflecting a similar trend seen in Canada as both economies begin to slow heading into the winter months. Furthermore, a fresh GDP update in Canada indicated stagnant economic growth despite rapid population expansion, pointing towards further economic slowdown. In fact, Q2 CND GDP reports have been revised downwards from flat, to negative. The 5-year bond yield in Canada has also witnessed a significant drop of 10% in the last week and a half, leading to expectations that fixed-rate mortgages will also soften in the coming months. Turning our attention to the October real estate statistics in Vancouver, the volume of sales has shown a very moderate increase from the previous year, yet they remain considerably below (-29.5%) the 10-year historical seasonal average. This is due largely to high mortgage rates deterring potential Buyers from the space. Meanwhile, new listings have been increasing and although overall inventory has experienced a slight dip, with the market leaning towards a balanced state, we should see continued trajectory towards a balanced and in some cases a Buyer's market. Notably, the HPI price has displayed a downward trend now for three consecutive months, while the median price has been on the rise. In terms of housing market's dynamics, the average days on the market remain steady at 12, indicating a swift turnover for well-priced properties. Despite the overall slowdown, certain high-demand properties are still generating significant levels of interest, as demonstrated by recent multiple offer scenarios we describe in the podcast. Well-maintained properties that are priced to market in a desirable neighborhood are continuing to sell and in some cases with competition. Looking ahead, it is expected that the current subdued level of activity will persist throughout the remainder of the year and will likely spill over into 2024, largely influenced by the rate hikes implemented nearly two years ago now compounded by seasonal fluctuations. Additionally, the slowing down of the US markets is projected to have a ripple effect on the Canadian economy and real estate landscape, further contributing to the prevailing market conditions as consumer sentiment remains pessimistic. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Inventory Rising!

In this week's podcast, we delve into the implications of the latest interest rate announcement, rising (and in some cases surging) levels of inventory, consumer sentiment and the all-important mortgage space. The Bank of Canada's cautious tone was underscored by their acknowledgment of the mounting impacts of past rate increases on economic activity and inflation. Their statement, "the path to a soft landing is narrow," essentially underlined the precarious position we now find ourselves in, hinting at the looming potential of a recession. Recent indicators like the downward spiral of per capita GDP and plummeting retail sales, now at their lowest point in 2023, have further accentuated the need for a cautious economic approach. Surprisingly, this week marked a rare rift between policymakers. Political figures like David Eby and Doug Ford recently implored the Bank of Canada for a cessation of rate hikes, to which the Bank responded firmly by emphasizing its political independence, urging governments to consider their spending and its inflationary consequences! The BoC has indicated that inflation is not expected to normalize now until 2025. However, market speculations are already pricing in a potential rate cut in June 2024 which could see us ending 2024 at 4.25% after a series of small cuts. Meanwhile, the steady erosion of consumer and business confidence levels, sinking below historic lows, has further exacerbated economic concerns in the short run. On the real estate front, despite a surge in mortgage activities indicating a possible return to stabilization, affordability issues persist as the affordability index reached its highest point since the '90s. Moreover, burgeoning listings, coupled with the gradual rise in inventory, might signal a potential shift in the market, evoking memories of the 2015 landscape, where prices dropped sharply amid elevated inventory. Adding to the economic intricacies are the proposed amendments to the short-term rental laws in British Columbia which have sparked a heated debate; highlighting the delicate balance between regulatory control and market demands. As we analyze these intertwined factors, it is becoming clear that our economic landscape is at a critical juncture, where cautious maneuvers and decisive policy decisions will shape the trajectory of our collective financial future. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Bank Of Canada Holds Rates - Hikes May Be Over

Today's recent announcement that The Bank of Canada has opted to maintain interest rates at 5% marks the fourth instance of holding rates during the ongoing rate hike cycle. The decision comes in the wake of a press release highlighting several concerns, including the weakening global economy, the surge in oil prices, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and persistent inflationary pressures. Today we unpack that decision with Mychal Ferreira, Bank of Montreal's number 1 mortgage broker in the country. Despite the apparent stability in rates, the Canadian economy continues to grapple with the aftermath of previous rate hikes, as evidenced by lower consumer spending and critical shifts in the housing market. Indicators suggest that the balance between supply and demand is gradually stabilizing, but the overarching concern remains the sluggish progress towards achieving price stability and the escalating risks of inflation. As a result, the door remains open for the possibility of further rate increases, emphasizing the cautious stance of policymakers. Interestingly, markets had accurately anticipated the decision to hold rates, corroborating the notion that the current cycle of rate hikes might be reaching its culmination. Observing the larger picture of 2023, the year has witnessed a modest 0.5% increase in rates, providing some semblance of cresting rates considering the year before. However, for many Canadians, this minimal respite fails to offset the substantial impacts of the staggering 475 basis point hike experienced over the past 19 months and what it will do as mortgages terms mature. With approximately 70,000 mortgages up for renewal every month and individuals increasingly resorting to lines of credit and credit cards to navigate the high rates, the strain of the elevated rates is palpable. The imminent renewal of 331 billion Canadian mortgages in 2024, originating from an era of relatively lower rates, will further underscore the real impact of the persistently high rates on households. To shed light on the current mortgage landscape, Mychal highlights the significant impact of the rate hikes on those with 5-year fixed mortgages. With an average overnight rate of 1.75% when these mortgages were initially obtained, the current 5% rate implies a substantial increase in mortgage payments and the dynamics that Banks may need to offer to keep people in their homes. There's growing sentiment that the trajectory of rates in today's marketplace are peaking for this cycle and are expected to hover around 4.5% by the end of 2024. Barring a black swan event, there's growing potential for a rate cut in the summer of 2024, followed by gradual adjustments to achieve a neutral rate over 2025. Pre-sale valuations are also an area of concern, with many builds completing today. There are those who are experiencing valuation deficits and qualification issues because they did not pursue financing options at the time of their pre-sale purchase. We touch on how to avoid this and how folks are taking possession of their new builds today, with 30yr amortization periods at a 2.5% interest rate! Contact Mychal: _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Is AirBnB To Blame For Canada's Housing Crisis?

The provincial government is creating even more restrictions around Air bnb operators with a recent announcement made by Premier David Eby and Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon regarding a proposed ban on short-term rentals in British Columbia. There are however, some exceptions for smaller municipalities and specific resort but their intent here is step up enforcement with bigger penalties and to discourage landlords and investors from removing properties from the long-term rental market. At a time when the region is grappling with soaring rental rates, predominantly impacting the condominium sector, the government is creating more restrictive policy by attacking demand, turning away long term investment and damaging the tourism sector in some of BC’s most important communities. Instead of looking at ways of boosting new supply, the proposed ban includes provisions for increased fines and the establishment of an enforcement unit. However, there will be potential challenges in enforcing the new regulations, especially if those who were utilizing Air bnb decide to create short term rentals on other platforms like Facebook Marketplace or Craigslist. Air Bnb Canada has argued that the proposed legislation could adversely affect the income of residents who currently hold Air bnb properties and reduce tourism spending in affected communities like Kelowna, Penticton and many others. Furthermore, they also believe bans like this won’t do anything to help with the overall housing crisis that the province finds itself in. Moreover, the argument as to whether the potential implications of the ban, its efficacy in addressing the housing crisis here in BC and its impact on investors and the tourism sector will actually make an impact. It feels largely like a knee jerk reaction to the loud cries of affordability in the rental market. To be seen as trying to make an immediate impact for constituents who are really grappling with the outcome of negligent public sector housing planning & legislation over the last two decades. The truth of the matter is that the policy is aimed at a small group of investors who do not have a large enough footprint in the market to make a considerable impact on the rental market. Nor were these operators the ones who created the housing shortage. Moreover, if current operators of Airbnb can’t achieve a net positive cashflow from long term renters in the absence of short-term rentals, the assets will sell to new end users - which still leaves the renter with no new inventory. Lastly, this week we touch on the current dynamics of the housing market, shedding light on the declining housing starts amid a significant influx of immigrants, resulting in a market standstill. Additionally, insights are provided on the latest inflation figures and findings from the MNP Consumer Price Index insolvency firm's quarterly survey, revealing mixed sentiments among Canadians regarding their ability to manage debt in the face of rising interest rates and a cooling economy. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Condo Inventory Spike May Be Just The Beginning

Consumer confidence in the Real Estate market is a vital economic barometer and has taken a worrisome downturn. In September, confidence plummeted to levels nearly as low as during the peak of the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis, setting off alarms that a recession may be looming. A significant red flag emerged as respondents expressed a high degree of pessimism, with 70.5% feeling that it's a bad time for major purchases! This pessimism isn't confined to households; it's also evident in the business community. Furthermore, per capita GDP is showing further signs of contraction, declining at a rate not seen since the financial crisis. This metric holds significant importance as it provides a glimpse into the state of the middle class, reflecting the overall health of the economy. Comparatively, Canada's population growth remains uncertain, with fluctuations and significant undercounts. The latest data shows a record year-on-year population growth of nearly 1.2 million, following a sharp downward revision in the previous quarter. Interestingly, this revision came after reports that temporary residents had been undercounted by approximately 1 million, an issue that Statistics Canada did not dispute! These discrepancies highlight the lack of clarity in understanding Canada's actual population growth and shows how our immigration program has been run amuck. In the real estate market, Toronto is experiencing a substantial slowdown, with sales declining by 1.8% month-over-month and 3.6% over the past two months. Sales have dropped by 22% since their peak in May, particularly impacting the condo and detached housing segments, which are both at 20-year lows in terms of sales. This drop in sales has led to a surge in inventory, which has risen by 11% month-over-month and 44% year-over-year! New listings have also increased, reaching levels 10% above the norm. Investors with an 80% loan-to-value ratio and today's mortgage rates are facing negative cash flows of -$1,375. This marks a significant departure from being cash positive just a few years ago and may lead to further increases in condo inventory. Vancouver has not yet experienced the same levels of negative cash flow and is currently sitting around the five-year average, which is 40% lower than 2020. In the construction sector, there has been a decline in the number of dwellings under construction in Toronto, with a 4.2% drop in August, the most significant decline since 2015. This decrease is particularly noteworthy because under construction counts had been steadily increasing since 2016. A similar trend is also visible in Vancouver, with a 1.2% decline in September, driven by a 2.4% drop in the condo segment. The real estate sector is typically a leading indicator for the overall health of the economy. As more and more households struggle with higher and higher rates, we suspect more pain will come before it gets better. Tune into this weeks Podcast and get the full breakdown. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Vancouver Real Estate Market Update For September 2023

In this week’s episode, we're diving into the current state of the Fall real estate market with the September Stats and it's not looking very (pumpkin)spicy. With falling prices, low sales volumes, high mortgage rates, and a significant lack of inventory to choose from, it's shaping up to be quite a challenging season for both buyers and sellers. Let’s look at the numbers - We saw a total of 1,926 sales in September, which is a 20% decrease compared to August. This marks the fourth consecutive month of declining sales, which is unusual for the Fall market - although perhaps it isn’t when you consider the circumstances. However, September still surprised us with year over year sales volume increasing by 13%, but still 26% below the 10-year seasonal average. At that pace, it’s looking more and more like there won't be a traditional 'fall' market this year, as high mortgage rates and below-average sales volumes are likely to persist throughout 2023 and into 2024. New Listings are up! In September, 5,446 properties were newly listed, showing a 28% increase year-over-year and a 5.2% rise above the 10-year seasonal average. Interestingly, monthly new listings have rarely exceeded the 6,000 mark since 2005, remaining relatively steady over 18 years despite a 600,000 increase in GVRD population. Total inventory sits at 10,647 listings and this is only the second time it has crossed the 10,000 mark in the past year, increasing by 7% month-over-month. While inventory is up by about 100 listings compared to the previous year, it remains 40% lower than pre-pandemic levels. We expect a slight climb in inventory for October and November and we should also mention that foreclosure rates account for a negligible 0.005% of the total inventory. The Sales to Active Ratio has us sitting in balanced market territory at 17.7%, this ratio is down 6.3% month-over-month and a significant 19% since the peak in May when it hit 37% - a strong Sellers market. This marks the first time the market has reached a balanced state since January, albeit for just one month. The Housing Price Index (HPI) has dropped for the second consecutive month, down 0.4% month-over-month to $1,203,300. While this reflects a 4.4% year-over-year increase, prices are only down 5% from their all-time high in April 2022, despite substantial increases in mortgage rates. Median prices have seen some fluctuations, jumping by $65,000 but recovering from a $78,500 drop the previous month to reach $965,000, which is 3.5% under the all-time high! Join us on the podcast this week and get the full story! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


New Housing Initiatives Enough To Create Meaningful Growth?

In this podcast episode, we delve into the pressing housing crisis in Canada, particularly focusing on British Columbia and Vancouver with the release of the much anticipated multiplex plan. There’s a number of challenges faced by local councils when it comes to enacting new by-laws for any kind of real estate but particularly when it comes to an initiative of this magnitude. With city council looking at a mid-October deadline to enact the new law, we could see real change coming soon! Recent newspaper headlines have indicated that municipalities could be ordered to build up to 60,000 new homes across ten municipalities within the next five years in BC. Although, we’re not quite sure how to order a developer to build a new home under today’s current economic climate - as such the emphasis for aggressive incentives will be required to see the projects success. Take the Housing Accelerator Fund for example, a federal policy that would grant the District of North Vancouver $9 million dollars subsidize 3,000 homes... which amounts to just $3,000 dollars per home - an amount that has been scrutinized for its perceived inadequacy. We also explore the need for both short-term and long-term housing plans that address the demand that exists within the country. We discuss the importance of housing policy reform, addressing rent controls, streamlining permitting and rezoning processes, and adjusting tax structures. Immigration policies need to be re-aligned with available housing capacity and we discuss the need for adequate incentives to not only builders but also investors and current home owners who elect to supply housing within our tight market. Lastly, we delve into and discuss the comments from local mayors and we consider the recent actions from the Minister of Finance, who announced that the annual limit for Canada Mortgage Bonds is being increased from $40 billion to up to $60 billion. This will help to unlock low-cost financing for multi-unit rental construction as will the removal of GST on the construction of rental units and no cost to rezoning thanks to the multiplex plan and the accelerator fund. All good starts.. but will it be enough or is it just a drop in the proverbial bucket? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


New Zoning & Government Rebates To Help Housing. Maybe.

On September 14th, Vancouver City Council greenlit the MultiPlex Plan, a sweeping rezoning strategy aimed at introducing more flexibility into residential development within Vancouver. This ambitious plan consolidates nine residential zones into a single R1-1 Residential Inclusive zone, affecting the majority of single family lots in the Vancouver East and Vancouver West areas. There are also some notable areas that are exempt from this and we discuss them mid way through our podcast episode. The MultiPlex plan allows for between 3 to 6 or even up to 8 units per lot, with a maximum density of 1.0 Floor Area Ratio (FAR) and a building height cap of 37.7 feet, typically limited to three stories. For example, a 4,000 sqft lot could support a 4,000 sqft building. It's estimated that approximately 65,000 lots will be affected by the sweeping zoning amendment and around 200 multiplexes could be constructed annually, potentially accommodating an additional 1,700 people when they are eventually built. With that said challenges such as infrastructure upgrades, parking solutions, and the impact on local schools & hospitals still loom. So far the City of Vancouver website has yet to provide more detailed information. Simultaneously, on September 14th, the Prime Minister unveiled the Federal GST Rental Rebate initiative, aimed at incentivizing the construction of purpose-built rental housing across Canada. This enhanced rebate, effective for projects commencing construction from September 14, 2023 onward, until December 31, 2030, increases the GST Rental Rebate from 36% to 100%. Eligibility extends to new purpose-built rental housing projects only. While the rebate serves as an incentive for rental housing construction, we question whether it’s enough to spur significant growth in the rental housing market. In order to create a more favourable landscape to take a project like this on, measures such as removing rental caps or indexing them to inflation will be required to further stimulate development. Canada's inflation rate continued to surprise to the upside for the second consecutive month in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surging to 4.0%, up from 3.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.8%. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that inflation will accelerate for one more month in September before a potential cooling trend in October. Even if inflation maintains an average monthly increase of 0.2% from this point onward, the year-end projection for 2023 points to a rate north of 4%, which is a concerning figure for the Bank of Canada. This episode has a ton of great value including more information on the record amount of immigration, historic lows for building permits and rising mortgage rates all converging at the same time! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Canada's Housing Shortage Hitting Breaking Point

This week is a jam packed episode that really underscores the housing crisis in Canada is hitting unprecedented levels. With projections from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) indicating a severe shortage of up to 4 million housing units by the year 2030, this crisis is expected to have far-reaching consequences, including a staggering 89% increase in housing prices over the next 6 years, according to CMHC estimates. That puts the average home price at an eye-watering $2,295,000 by 2030. To put this into perspective, you would need to save $181,000 per year until 2030 just to offset the difference in price from today’s number. Although it may seem impossible, these projections come against the backdrop of a relatively modest 15% increase in housing prices over the past six years. However, the past four years have witnessed a more significant surge, with prices climbing by 36%, harking back to the alarming 84% increase observed from 2010 to 2016. GDP data offers insights into the country’s overall economic health and depending on how you look at it, two out of the last three quarters have seen a decline in GDP and the last quarter having contracted. This signals that the interest rate hikes imposed over the las 18 months are beginning to take effect. Household spending has hit a two-year low, and residential investment has plummeted for five consecutive quarters. While it has returned to pre-COVID levels, new home construction has dropped by 8.2%. While building permits are at 20 year lows, developers with imminent projects have moved forward. In Greater Vancouver, inventory has increased by 11% in the first two weeks of September, reaching its highest level in three years, potentially indicating a more favourable market for frustrated buyers in the short run. In terms of rate hikes, expectations have shifted significantly. Initially, there was a nearly 100% probability of a 0.25% rate hike by January 2024, but this has now dropped to around 40%. The markets now believe that Canada may have reached a rate hike peak, barring unexpected large increases in inflation reports. The fear is that a contracting GDP may lead to a recession, with the potential consequences yet to be fully understood. So much to unpack in this one! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Vancouver Market Overview with Nicola Wealth

This week we sat down with Ethan Astaneh from Nicola Wealth, an independent wealth management firm dedicated to serving the complex needs of high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions. The firm services clients across Canada and has amassed a $14 Billion dollar portfolio - a considerable portion of which is invested in real estate. In this episode, we discuss the Canadian residential real estate market and dive into a number of different topics from the performance of each asset class to the impacts of higher interest rates and the shortage of supply. We examine key metrics and consider each housing types position on the market. We look at condos, townhouses, and detached houses across the GVRD and discuss whether they sit in a buyers' or sellers' market. We also take a deep dive and explore the impact of rising interest rates on the market and how it has affected different housing types, including data on building permits and housing starts. We also consider current mortgage rates and the potential wave of renewals at higher rates in the next 2-3 years due to low-rate debt taken on throughout the pandemic and their impact on affordability, inflation and rental rates. Diving into Vancouver's multiplex plan, which was announced in the Spring of 2023, we discuss its purpose, the implementation phase and what it could mean for single family home owners in Vancouver.When markets shift, so does the psychology behind residential real estate. We unpack the sentiment in the market place, what buyers and sellers are considering in today’s marketplace. Finally, we end the episode by identifying key opportunities and risks over the next 6-12 months as we navigate the current market dynamics. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Vancouver Median Home Prices Drop 9%!

This week we unpack the recent Bank of Canada decision to hold interest rates steady at 5% and we review the latest stats for the month of August from the REBGV. With respect to interest rates the market got the hold it was hoping for and considering our recent history of 10 rate hikes and 3 holds, this decision came at a crucial juncture for Canada's economic landscape. The central bank's press release revealed that while inflation remained stubbornly high, the Canadian economy actually contracted in the second quarter of the year, which likely presented a dilemma for policymakers and helped enforce the decision to pause rates. They were faced with compelling reasons to both raise and lower rates but ultimately chose to maintain the status quo. One of the key statistics that caught everyone's attention was the significant miss in Canada's GDP growth projection for the second quarter. It was expected to grow by 1.5%, but instead, it contracted by 0.2%. This sudden economic setback raised concerns and provided the backdrop for the Bank of Canada's decision. On the employment front, the picture was more stable. Employment remained strong which was a sharp contrast to the previous month that shed more than 60,000 jobs. 40,000 jobs were added in the month of August while at the same time another 100,000 people immigrated to Canada in August! However, with that said, the central bank still pointed to "excess demand easing" and emphasized the lagging effects of previous monetary policy decisions as reasons for holding rates. The Bank also expressed its concern about underlying inflationary pressures and asserted its readiness to raise rates further if necessary, underscoring its commitment to restoring price stability and reducing inflation. August sales numbers were relatively flat, and that’s to be expected this time of the year as it’s a historically slow month. Total sales saw a notable 21.5% increase from the previous year, a significant shift attributed to more people entering the market, even at the current 5% interest rate. This was surprising and reiterates that markets respond to stability. This time last year, rates were increasing at an incredible pace but were still half of what they are today. However, despite this surge in sales, the numbers remained 13.8% below the 10-year average, indicating a market still struggling to reach its full potential. New listings also saw an 18% increase compared to the previous year, but they remained 5.3% below the 10-year average, pointing to a persistent lack of inventory. The most intriguing aspect of the August statistics was the inventory situation. Overall inventory dropped by 6.5% compared to July, marking the first decline in seven months. Although inventory remains below 10,000 units for the eighth consecutive month. Get this and so much more as we take a deep dive in this weeks episode. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Debts & Defaults Rising - What's In Store This Fall

This week we took a look at how the month of August was rounding out as well as providing our predictions for the Fall Market and the highly anticipated interest rate announcement next week. There have been 2,300 sales with a 20% year-on-year increase. However, these numbers are still below long-term averages. The inventory has remained consistently below 10,000 properties for the ninth consecutive month. The sales-to-active-listings ratio is approximately 24%, indicating that it still remains a seller's market throughout 2023, except for January. While average prices have increased by $10,000, the median prices have plummeted, experiencing an 8% decrease or a drop of $78,000 to $900,000, erasing all gains made in 2023. Various sources suggest that the BoC is expected to hold steady at 5.00%, with a minority anticipating one more rate increase. These predictions are based on assessments from Reuters, RBC, Oxford Economics, and interest rate future markets. With that said, there's still about a 30% chance of a 0.25% interest rate change in September and a 70% chance by the end of the year. The decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise rates could cool the market further, dampen consumer confidence, and restrict credit flow even more putting the risk of recession very much at the forefront. We also look at the first and second-quarter GDP results which are likely to show a sharper slowdown in economic growth, with an expected growth rate of 1.1%, down from 3.1% in the first quarter and below the BoC's estimate of 1.5%. Historically, there’s typically an uptick in activity throughout September and possibly October which could help stabilize prices, however, the housing market is likely to continue to slow down as the overall economy inches down and unemployment rises. A moderate recession could change the narrative around interest rates and inflation but are likely to be months if not at least a year away from recovery. Tune into this weeks podcast and catch our other predictions about the fall market - What will rents do? Are prices still going to rise? _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Bank Of Canada Poised To Raise Rates Well Before Lowering Them

In recent times, the global economy has witnessed unexpected shifts in inflation rates, interest rates, and various economic indicators that have significant ramifications for the housing market. This synopsis delves into the multifaceted implications of these changes and how they are shaping the present and future landscape of real estate in Vancouver and Canada. The August Inflation print has taken economists by surprise by exceeding initial estimates. While the anticipated inflation rate was around 3%, it surged to 3.3%, a substantial increase from the previous 2.8%. Although economists had predicted a rise, the extent of the increase caught many off guard. A primary driver of this inflation is the significant surge in mortgage interest costs, soaring by an alarming 30% year over year! This inflationary pressure has led to market uncertainties, influencing sentiments and investment decisions. The unexpected inflation surge has also spurred adjustments in interest rates. The next central bank meeting, scheduled for September 6th, holds pivotal importance as it will influence the fall market sentiment. Market forecasts have priced in a 90% chance of an interest rate hike within the year and a 30% chance of a hike at the upcoming September meeting. Current estimates indicate interest rates will stay elevated at their current rates for at least another year and unlikely that we will see interest rates cuts for some time. Market predictions and central banks have repeatedly pushed back the anticipated timeline for rates to decrease, causing uncertainties for those seeking stable, lower rates. The effects of rising interest rates are reverberating through the mortgage market. Borrowers who enjoyed historically low rates over the past five years are now confronted with the possibility of refinancing at higher rates, around 5% to 6%. This substantial rate hike translates to a 50% increase in mortgage payments. The surge in inflation has not only impacted interest rates but also propelled bond yields to a 16-year high of 4.15%. This surge in bond yields has contributed to pushing fixed mortgage rates even higher, dampening the enthusiasm of potential homebuyers. The average fixed mortgage rate offered by leading banks hovers around 5.6%, further exacerbating concerns about affordability. Despite economic fluctuations, population numbers continue to surge. International student admissions have risen by 21% year over year, with temporary workers experiencing an even more staggering 45% increase in June and a 71% increase for the second quarter. This influx of temporary workers has elevated the ongoing public discourse about the potential negative impacts of population growth on the overall economy and social infrastructure. Is immigration the real problem - or is it the lack of housing supply over the last 40 years the real contributing factor to this issue? We discuss this and many of these points on this weeks episode. _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Interest Rate Discussion With #1 BMO Mortgage Specialist

In the ever-evolving landscape of the Vancouver real estate market, homebuyers find themselves grappling with a compelling question: How long will they be forced to navigate the challenges imposed by elevated interest rates? In this insightful episode, we engage in a candid conversation with Mychal Ferrera, the No. 1 BMO Mortgage Specialist in the country, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the current state of interest rates as we try to anticipate their trajectory for the remainder of 2023. We also focus on the Top 5 most frequently asked questions that dominate the minds of those considering property purchase in this challenging environment. Variable Rate versus Fixed Rates? How much of my monthly income should I expect contribute to home ownership especially considering how expensive it’s become? Furthermore, we delve into pertinent topics such as signs of panic selling, major debt restructuring, the dynamics of new mortgage originations, and the unconventional economic circumstances that are defining this time. It was somewhat expected that this month's inflation rate has surged to 3.3% over the past month, marking a 0.5% increase. Notably, the cost of mortgages has surged by an alarming 30.6% over the course of the year. Amidst these disconcerting statistics we discuss the potential for interest rate stability and whether the BoC will raise rates in September. We both take a different stance of this and for very different reasons. We also discuss whether Buyer’s should go ahead with the decision to purchase amidst high rates or if they should wait for a more favourable climate? Mychal provides great insights into the advantages and disadvantages of both approaches. He addresses the potential repercussions of delaying purchase decisions and how to navigate your financial position in this challenging time. Check out the episode for more information! Contact Mychal: _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Revolutionizing Real Estate Investment Analysis and Management

Introducing Lendlord: Revolutionizing Real Estate Investment Analysis and Management Attention investors and realtors! Are you tired of spending endless hours analyzing investment properties? Imagine a platform that not only stores and tracks your entire portfolio but also provides real-time ROI insights. What if obtaining financing for your next project was as simple as clicking a button? Today, we unveil a game-changing solution that's both free and available right now. Developed by two visionary minds merging Tech and Finance expertise, Lendlord addresses critical challenges within the investment realm. I had the privilege of interviewing one of the creators, who offers an exclusive peek into the software's inner workings. Lendlord delivers an abundance of value to its users at no cost. Moreover, for those who stay tuned till the end, I’m excited to announce a special offer: a complimentary 3-month trial of the Premium version, complete with a plethora of enhanced features. Intrigued? Let's delve into the remarkable capabilities of the Lendlord platform, poised to revolutionize your real estate investment experience. Thank you for joining us today, and here's to prosperous investing with Lendlord! 3 FREE MONTHS of the Premium Version here: _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089


Housing Supply Crisis Could Go On For Years

The Vancouver real estate market, is facing a persistent and thorny challenge with low inventory that shows no signs of abating. This week week we delve into the factors contributing to the prolonged shortage of housing in Vancouver, exploring the implications for potential buyers in the marketplace. Currently, the Vancouver market requires an influx of approximately 60% more inventory to achieve a balanced and sustained state. However, the phenomenon of low inventory is not a recent development here; it has been a consistent feature of the Vancouver real estate landscape over the past two decades. The city has experienced a sustained buyers' market only two times in the last two decades – during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and in 2012 for a combined total of 14 months. Interestingly, these downturns were not primarily due to a surge in listings but rather a decrease in buyer activity. The construction industry, the tip of the proverbial real estate spear, is showing a concerning downturn. Immigration, which was anticipated to boost the sector, has not produced the desired effects. Last month alone, the industry lost 44,000 jobs, marking a 4% decline over the past three months. The last time we saw a slump like this was during the Global Financial Crisis and the early 90s recession. Moreover, the residential building permits have plummeted, reaching the lowest level in over a decade. Shifting focus to overall unemployment, there’s more to worry about. The unemployment rate has surged to 5.5% in the last month, increasing by 50 bps in just 3 months. Such an escalation is seldom observed outside of recessions. Also, the accuracy of these statistics should be questioned due to rapid population growth over the past year, potentially leading to an underestimation of the unemployment rate. Notable job cuts by Telus, RBC, and BMO area adding to the economic concerns. The topic of affordability also presents a gloomy picture. The 5-year bond rate has surpassed 4.1%, reaching a 15-year high. This has consequently driven up fixed rates by 12 basis points in a week, making homeownership even more unattainable. The affordability crisis has reached such an extent that even individuals earning over $100,000 per year are seeking assistance from organizations like Habitat for Humanity to secure rental units or purchase homes! How does this compare to Canada’s other major market in Toronto? Join this weeks podcast and get the whole story! _________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation: 📆 Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA 604.809.0834 Ryan Dash PREC 778.898.0089