School of War

Aviv Shapira, the co-founder and CEO of XTEND, joins the show to discuss his journey from competitive drone racing to building groundbreaking defense technology. How are drone swarms changing warfare? What are the ethical implications of AI weaponry? What happens if this technology falls into the wrong hands? And what comes next? 01:58 Aviv’s background04:46 Replay technologies08:28 VR Messi08:58 Xtend description09:55 Drone racing12:56 Headset importance14:13 Ender’s Game17:02 AI drones21:34 Tunnel warfare27:11 Diversity of drone needs30:41 Drone swarms34:16 Human machine teaming37:10 Rule of three41:52 Ethical questions44:11 Future of munitions45:26 Xtend business model49:23 Future of this technology52:22 Tech in enemy hands Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more at The Free Press.

Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins the show once again to discuss the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz imposed by United States Central Command. How might this blockade unfold? Is it a tactic to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, or a step that risks igniting a new wave of conflict? We do not know how this game will end, but one thing is certain: The entire world is watching this critical waterway. 03:13 How is the blockade functioning 08:52 Trump’s messaging 10:54 Blockade is negotiating tactic 11:40 Carrier strike groups 12:12 The U.S. Navy’s run through the strait 12:39 Iranian mines 15:09 The Islamabad process 17:50 American convoying 20:01 Iranian shadow fleet 21:25 Potential blockade tactics 23:20 Boarding vessels 26:54 Merchant marine involvement 28:34 The China factor 33:08 Economic game of chicken 38:26 A return to violence Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast, or at The Free Press

General Michael Claesson is Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff and Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. How did Russia’s annexation of Crimea change Sweden’s global strategy? Is Russia weaker than it appears? How strong is the American alliance with Europe? With the tectonic plates of war shifting beneath our feet, the stakes are high and the future of NATO hangs in the balance. Times: 02:46 Swedish view of the world 04:19 Crimea annexation 08:50 Geopolitical logic of joining NATO 10:10 Military background 13:48 The war in Ukraine 17:53 Lessons from the American Civil War 19:40 Drone combat 25:09 Command versus autonomy 27:09 European defense against Russia 33:14 Contested Kaliningrad 36:00 Russia’s vulnerabilities 37:19 Russia’s greyzone warfare 41:11 Europe’s role in global security 44:26 American and European alliance 45:00 The case for NATO Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast and now also on The Free Press.

Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, joins Aaron to discuss the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. What are the fears surrounding the talks? Where are the two sides close on the proposed ceasefire, and where are they miles apart? What should we look for to indicate how the talks are going? Looming over everything is the question of whether the negotiating table can, at times, be more dangerous than the battlefield. Times: 02:03 Nature of the ceasefire 04:22 Do we have the upper hand? 08:04 Trump vs. Iranian trap 09:31 Iran’s fragile position 11:49 Broader American strategy 14:59 Negotiation demands 18:57 Lebanon factor 22:48 Who is Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf? 27:45 J.D. Vance’s analogy 30:44 Strait of Hormuz 33:03 Recession fears 36:29 Hormuz circumvention 38:05 Battle for Hormuz 39:00 Global chokepoint lessons Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Sal Mercogliano, associate professor of history at Campbell University and host of the What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the complexities of navigating the Strait under normal and elevated circumstances. The conversation delves into the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the impact on global shipping, and the broader implications for international trade and security. What are the challenges posed by the current conflict, the role of insurance in maritime operations, and the potential long-term effects on global trade? ▪️ Times 02:45 A regular day 07:51 Shipping lanes 11:48 In the Persian Gulf 19:13 What is actually happening? 27:00 Opening the Strait 32:30 Strategic costs 38:05 Keeping things moving 44:58 Breakdown of the Freedom of the Seas 48:32 Ghost fleets 53:13 Other chokepoints Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, join the show to breakdown the dramatic events of the weekend and take a look at the road ahead in the Iran War. We discuss the American F-15E shot down in Iran, and the subsequent rescue of its crew by special operations forces near Isfahan. The conversation delves into the details of the rescue operation, President Trump's demands regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential actions the United States might take if Iran does not comply. ▪️ Times 03:00 Rescue 12:47 Potential nuclear raid sites 15:28 President’s deal terms 26:50 Targets and regime change 35:32 Ground options 38:28 Information gaps and what comes next Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran. ▪️ Times 02:03 Trump’s speech 05:22 Escalation 10:10 Goals 12:25 Risk and scale 15:15 Kinds of surprise 17:37 Misreading the Iranians 22:10 15 Points 25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 29:24 Branding 32:44 Oil 37:15 Kharg Island 41:35 Regime alteration 44:20 Time and resources 48:49 Balance 50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins the show to explain the complexities of deterrence against China, the strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and the implications of the wars in Ukraine and Iran for Taiwan. We break down China’s plausible gray-zone tactics like quarantine and coercive mobilization, and how these tools, if unchecked, could lead to a total economic or military break. Where are the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, in naval and trade logistics, and in missile magazine depth? ▪️ Times 01:45 No path out 04:13 Maintaining balance 10:18 Kasserine lessons 16:51 China’s possible moves in the gray-zone 22:53 More stockpiling 27:33 Invasion 34:21 Decapitation and bombardment 39:20 An economic and political problem 46:42 The Summit Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown? ▪️ Times 03:25 Targeting as strategy 10:40 Neurological strike 20:16 An evolution in military affairs 26:30 Adaptation 30:48 Center of gravity 39:37 The missile program Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, Executive Director of the Public Interest Fellowship, break down what’s really happening behind the headlines — from covert strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites to the fragile possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. How are the U.S., Israel, and Iran navigating the negotiations, and are there any operational knock-on effects? What are the realities and complexities of potential ground invasions, targeted raids, and covert operations that could shape the next phase of conflict? What are the risks of seizing Kharg Island or launching strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities? How does the Iranian regime’s use of civilian infrastructure complicate precise strikes, and how do intelligence gaps and political signals influence U.S. decisions? What is the strategic significance of Kharg Island, what are the challenges of amphibious operations along Iran’s long coastline, and what are the odds of a ground campaign in the coming weeks? ▪️ Times 02:42 Negotiations 09:17 U.S. options 15:35 Ground forces 18:53 M.E.U 25:35 Kharg Island 37:53 Silence on the nuclear program 45:13 JSOC 53:02 Acting with speed Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, reveals how geography and choke points have always been pivotal in global conflicts and just like the Dardanelles during WWI, today’s hotspots like the Straits of Hormuz and Taiwan remind us that some strategic challenges never change. What exactly are chokepoints and why do they matter? How do the lessons of Gallipoli and Ukraine apply to the war with Iran? How is the current situation different from the Tanker War and WWI? Can naval and air power alone open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open? Is there a timeline for success? And what does this all mean for U.S. magazine depth, the economy, and China? ▪️ Times 02:49 Gallipoli 11:08 Unintended consequences 18:10 Ukraine 26:22 A failure of perception 31:36 The right call by Trump? 37:34 Regime alteration 47:05 Timeframes 53:33 China Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Zineb Riboua, research fellow with Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace andSecurity in the Middle East, joins the show to talk about the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, focusing on China's interests and involvement. How dependent is China on the region's energy resources? How does China project power in the Middle East and in Africa? Is China benefiting or suffering from the current war? What are the geopolitical and strategic considerations for both Beijing and D.C.? Times02:19 Going badly for China06:24 Specific military goals07:47 China & the Middle East12:44 Iranian Oil15:34 Layers18:12 Trump and Xi22:54 Conditions in the Strait of Hormuz26:46 Best case/worst case scenarios29:42 Russia and Africa33:36 Strategic revenge

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty, joins the show to talk about the origins, evolution, and possible future of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What forces produced the 1979 revolution, and how did it reshape Iran’s political and religious order? What are the psychological and sociological impacts of this revolution? How have the regime’s leaders interpreted and sustained the revolutionary project, and what have the major challenges been? As Iran enters a new and uncertain phase under Mojtaba Khamenei, can the Islamic Republic endure, or is there a potential for future revolution in Iran? ▪️ Times 02:07 Living through the Islamic Revolution 04:12 A diverse Iran 05:50 How did the revolution succeed? 14:06 Khomeini & Khamenei 20:46 Too cautious 22:35 Dynastic succession 34:00 Iran vs. Venezuela 38:35 Regime resiliency 44:30 Beginning of the end 50:14 Threshold states Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at FDD and retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, joins the show to provide in-depth analysis of the Iran conflict. Mark gives his thoughts on naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, including their strategic implications for the progress of the war. He also discusses drone warfare, missile defense, and the broader geopolitical context. Mark also explains how Ukraine and Russia are playing growing parts in the war. ▪️ Times 02:30 A constant menace 07:34 Radar and THAAD 11:06 Hormuz 20:26 Real deterrence 31:36 Russian targeting 38:38 Conservation of resources 46:03 Life at sea Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie Jr, USMC (ret.), commanded US Central Command from 2019-2022. Gen. McKenzie led a distinguished 42 year career in the US Marine Corps, commanding at multiple levels and serving on the Joint Staff. In this in-depth conversation, General McKenzie shares his insights on the recent U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, strategic mistakes by Iran, and the prospects for regime change. He gives a full breakdown of Iran's military capabilities, regional dynamics, and possible future scenarios. ▪️ Times 03:45 Iranian response 07:40 Ballistic missiles 19:06 Defeating drones 22:20 Soleimani 30:31 Iranian miscalculation 32:48 War was never inevitable 36:18 Outcomes Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Fred Kagan, senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, joins the show to discuss the war, what Ukraine can do to help the Gulf with drone defense, and the future of the Islamic Republic. ▪️ 01:51 Updates 03:29 Iranian strikes 09:15 Munitions crisis 14:28 Innovation 18:45 Isolated and weak 25:12 Arming the opposition 30:55 A dangerous game 36:22 10/7 40:21 Turkey Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mike Doran, senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at the Hudson Institute, joins the show to bring us the latest breakdown on the war and how long this may go on. ▪️ Times 01:52 Where are things going? 05:45 Rational strikes 09:56 A weakened positioned 16:33 Lasting change 20:13 What comes next? 26:40 Regional war 30:28 Integration 38:30 The Decider 47:32 Futures Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Mark Dubowitz, CEO of FDD, joins the show to bring us up to speed on the rapidly developing full-scale conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran. ▪️ Times 01:19 Iranian leaders targeted 04:48 10/7 roots 07:39 Ambitious war aims 12:41 Scope 15:59 Regime change 20:11 Iranian response 23:42 Playing with fire 28:13 Partnership Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Yossi Cohen, served as the director of the Mossad from 2016 until 2021 and is the author of The Sword of Freedom: Israel, Mossad, and the Secret War. As director, he personally orchestrated some of the Mossad’s most daring operations, such as the seizure of the Iranian nuclear archives—the exposure of which was among the main factors behind the United States’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal—and clandestine activity all over the world. ▪️ Times 01:27 Joining the Mossad 16:02 Serving behind the lines 26:31 Recruitment 32:45 HUMINT 39:50 Deciding to strike 44:36 Iran 49:51 Moral conflicts Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack

Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director (Iran Program) and Senior Fellow at FDD, joins the show to talk about the build-up of American military power in the Middle East and what it might mean for Iran and the Iranian regime. ▪️ Times 02:04 U.S. build-up 05:46 Timing 11:08 “Decisive and different” 24:41 Iranian retaliation 30:03 Targets 35:25 Ideology of the Supreme Leader 41:36 A Trump JCPOA 45:46 Regime change by air Follow along on Instagram, X @schoolofwarpod, and YouTube @SchoolofWarPodcast Find more content on our School of War Substack