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Chicago, IL

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English


Episodes

Turner’s Take Podcast: WASDE Bullish Soybeans; Bearish Corn

10/10/2019
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A bullish quarterly stocks reports has shifted possible prices ranges for corn and soybeans materially higher. New Crop Corn could have a carryout sub 2 billion with the potential to go lower due to lower yields this year. Soybeans could be sub 500, which seemed impossible six months ago.

Duration:00:26:49

Turner’s Take Podcast: Bullish Quarterly Stocks Report Big Boost for Grain and Oilseeds

10/2/2019
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A bullish quarterly stocks reports has shifted possible prices ranges for corn and soybeans materially higher. New Crop Corn could have a carryout sub 2 billion with the potential to go lower due to lower yields this year. Soybeans could be sub 500, which seemed impossible six months ago.

Duration:00:25:05

Turner’s Take Podcast: Frost Risk Reduced Into Early October

9/25/2019
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This week we go over our thoughts on the stock market and why we like having exposure to the S&P 500. We go over why corn and soybeans still have 25 to 50 cents of weather/yield premium due to frost and harvest risk. Rallies in the grain and oilseeds are marketing opportunities for next year. Take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast for more details

Duration:00:29:38

Turner’s Take Podcast: Time is Running Out For 2019 Grains and Oilseeds

9/18/2019
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In our latest podcast we go over the expected Fed interest rate cut, the attack on Saudi Arabia's crude oil operations, Chinese soybean purchases, and what we want to do in the grain markets for 2020. We also talk about livestock, Trump's disposition to choose financial wars over military wars, and finishing weather for US crops. Make sure you take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast

Duration:00:24:25

Turner’s Take Podcast: September WASDE Tomorrow

9/11/2019
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This week we look into the latest developments in the US/China trade war. We then switch to the USDA's September WASDE report that will be released tomorrow at 11 am central. While we think corn and soybeans can rally in the short term, farmers should be using increases in price to sell 2019 new crop and also start to price/hedge 2020 and 2021. Finally we look into livestock and energy, and why we think Cattle may have bottomed. Take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:22:28

Turner’s Take Podcast: Greenspan Talks Negative Interest Rates

9/4/2019
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This week we talk about Alan Greenspan's comments on negative interest rates in the US and what it could mean for other assets like real estate, stocks, and gold. We take a look at the bearish price action in the grain markets as demand continues to be very poor. At the end of the podcast we briefly review our positions in hogs, cattle and crude.

Duration:00:22:36

Turner’s Take Podcast: Projected Ending Stocks for 2020-21 Are Concerning

8/27/2019
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This week we take another look at 2020-21 corn and soybeans projections. We make conservative assumptions about 2019-20 final production and 2020-21 acres, yields, and demand. If there are no big production surprises in the US or South America, then corn and soybeans could be substantially lower next year. ASF will be an issue for global feed demand and the US/China trade war has no end in sight. Take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast to learn more.

Duration:00:26:48

Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Likely To Put In A Seasonal Bottom Next Week

8/21/2019
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In our latest podcast we go over our thoughts on the macro economy and why we like gold, the stocks market and the US Dollar. Then we talk about how grains typically make a seasonal low at the end of August and why we like the corn and soybeans in Sept/Oct. Next up is livestock and how we want to play cattle and hogs. Finally we talk about the reversal in crude oil calendar spreads and how we want to get involved.

Duration:00:19:48

Turner’s Take Podcast: WASDE Bearish Corn

8/13/2019
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Corn and soybeans both broke through support today. The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat. In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases. What each of them thinks and why. Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast. I'll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast for a full explanation.

Duration:00:22:05

Turner’s Take Podcast: The Bull and the Bear Case for Corn and Soybeans

7/31/2019
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Corn and soybeans both broke through support today. The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat. In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases. What each of them thinks and why. Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast. I'll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast for a full explanation.

Duration:00:21:35

Turner’s Take Podcast: Supply Bulls vs Demand Bears – July 23, 2019

7/23/2019
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In the podcast I go over what the supply bulls and demand bears are fighting about. On the supply side the US could be at a 12.25 billion production level for corn and 3.5 billion for soybeans. If corn production is 12.25 billion (78mm acres harvests X 160 yield) then demand needs to be rationed 400 to 500mm to make sure ending stocks are around 1 billion. The supply bulls argue corn needs to go higher for price rationing.

Duration:00:28:08

Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Range Bound – July 16, 2019

7/16/2019
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The CBOT remains range bound as traders debate supply (acres and yield) and demand (exports and feed). The market will have little guidance from the USDA until the August 12th WASDE report. Weather forecasts have temps getting cooler with more precipitations. The US will have a smaller corn and soybean crop this year, but the trade is still debating how small and how much price rationing is needed. In this episode we also dive into what this all means for the 2020-21 corn and soybean crops...

Duration:00:23:05

Turner’s Take Podcast: July WASDE Preview – July 9, 2019

7/9/2019
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The USDA will release their July WASDE on Thursday, July 11th, at 11 am central. We think the report could be bearish for corn and wheat, but has the potential for a bullish surprise in soybeans. Take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast to hear more

Duration:00:22:51

Turner’s Take Podcast: Knee High By The Fourth Of July – July 2, 2019

7/2/2019
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Happy Independence Day! It is a holiday week and it feels that way. Wednesday is an early close, Thursday we are closed for Independence Day, and Friday is a full day but the markets should be very quiet. Friday will be like the day after Thanksgiving. In this podcast we go over the bullish and bearish forces in the macro economy, why we think corn will trade in a range of $4.00 to $4.50 for the rest of the summer, why we are concerned about soybeans and wheat, and why we like cotton and...

Duration:00:26:10

Turner’s Take Podcast: Planted Acres Report Could Disappoint – June 25, 2019

6/25/2019
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I'm back from my family vacation/reunion and it doesn't look like much has changed. This Friday we have the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres report. I think stocks will be high as higher grain prices have hurt US exports. I also think the Planted Acres report could disappoint the bulls. Planted Acres are based on seeded and expected acres as of June 1. Corn and soybean acres will probably be higher than what the market is trading currently. Weather will be critical for the rest of the...

Duration:00:24:42

Turner’s Take Podcast: WASDE Bullish Corn – June 11, 2019

6/11/2019
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I think corn could have a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday. After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.

Duration:00:20:15

Turner’s Take Podcast: Crop Conditions and WASDE Could Disappoint Next Week – June 6, 2019

6/6/2019
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I think corn could have a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday. After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.

Duration:00:11:41

Turner’s Take Podcast: Corn Crop Conditions Next Week – June 4, 2019

6/4/2019
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Corn and soybeans are consolidating while the Crop Progress reports confirm slow planting. If there is going to be a next leg higher in these markets will have to come from yield reductions. From what we are hearing, next Monday the USDA will release the first corn crop conditions report. That will let us see what is rated Good/Excellent and what is Poor/Very Poor. We expect soybean conditions to be released the week after. We go over our Supply & Demand estimates to estimate what it will...

Duration:00:25:04

Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Consolidation

5/29/2019
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Since our last podcast the USDA has announced some details on the farm aid package, new crop corn traded $4.54, new crop soybeans traded $9.18, corn planting was 59% completed, soybean planting 29% completed, and the funds are probably now flat corn. A lot has changed and there is probably more to come. Make sure you check out the latest Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:28:37

Turner’s Take Podcast: Soybeans On Deck?

5/21/2019
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Another week and more planting delays. The funds are still heavily short corn and soybeans. We are well behind the pace for planting, and now we have concerns for acres and yield in both corn and beans. Grain continue to have the potential to rally even as China prepares for a "New Long March" and a possible trade cold war with the US. Make sure you take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast

Duration:00:27:13