In Moscow's Shadows

Bakhmut has (probably, kinda) fallen and Belgorod raided. The first is hardly a real defeat for Ukraine nor a real victory for Moscow. The latter may prove more significant, not so much for the raid itself but the dilemmas it imposes on the Russians ahead of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. In the second half I kick off an occasional series of profiles of the next generation of insider political leaders by looking at Marat Khusnullin, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of Construction and Regional Development, whose status as a (re)builder could conceivably what Russia will eventually need after Putin. Anna Arutunyan's Spectator piece I mention is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

As a change from the usual, I look through the top six news items currently on the website of Rossiiskaya Gazeta, the main government newspaper of record, on today, Sunday 14 May. What can one learn about the state of Russian politics, intra-elite conflicts, the survival of real journalism and how comfortable Russians are with being global outsiders, based on stories about everything from missile attacks in the Donbas to easier regulations on building sheds? As websites change, the six stories are: FT: G7 и ЕС планируют запретить возобновление поставок российского газа "Фиксируем все разрушения для будущего суда над преступниками": как работает полиция на месте удара крылатыми ракетами Storm Shadow в День ЛНР В Турции начались президентские и парламентские выборы Эрмитаж возвращает в Александро-Невскую Лавру раку Александра Невского. Михаил Пиотровский рассказал "РГ" о смысле и условиях передачи раки Церкви Эксклюзив В Минстрое разъяснили, почему сараи и бани стало строить проще Александр Бастрыкин выступил за введение уголовной ответственности для юридических лиц The episode of the Kennan Institute's The Russia File podcast I mention is here. For Bastrykin's rather more explicit attacks on corruption in the defence-industrial complex, see here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

It's an easy journalistic shorthand to hall Putin a new tsar (I've done it myself), but what might it mean? Coronation weekend in the UK seems a fitting time to consider the pitfalls for Putinism of its pseudo-monarchic tilt. In the second part a quickfire look at Ukraine's war of sabotage inside Russia, the incredible shrinking Victory Day parade, and the even more quickly shrinking Prigozhin. My articles on the drone attack and sabotage campaign are in the Spectator and Sunday Times; the Meduza piece on Mediazona's research about proxy attacks is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

News that gas corporation Gazprom appears to be sponsoring a mercenary unit in Ukraine prompts me to explore the complex ecosystem of Russian private military companies and mercenaries. Not so much the onset of a new era of warlordism, I see it as a reflection of Putin's adhocratic mobilisation state. In the second half, I provide a guide to some of the varies organisations in question, from MOD fronts to ultra-nationalist thugs. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Even loyalists seem in some cases to be taking a step back, not for a moment standing against the Kremlin but less able or willing to be so vocal and visible supporting it. I look at four such figures - Alexander Bortnikov, director of the FSB, Dmitry Kiselev, general director of Russia Today, Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigatory Committee, and Alexei Dyumin, governor of Tula - and wonder what their different political strategies portend. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

What can we learn from the massive trove of US secret documents recently and incautiously leaked? And what are the signs that Russia really is digging in, not for a 'Forever War,' but certainly a lengthy one? The Moskovskii Komsomolets article I mention is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Something for everyone? What we may conclude from the murder of milblogger 'Vladlen Tatarsky', thoughts on the hostage-taking of journalist Evan Gershkovich, the madness of Nikolai Patrushev and a new report on guns in Ukraine. The Spectator piece I mention is here (paywalled), Patrushev's latest interview is here, the report 'On U.S. Objectives With Respect to the USSR To Counter Soviet Threats to U.S. Security' is here, and our report 'Peace and Proliferation: the Russo-Ukrainian war and the illegal arms trade' is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Spinning off from a recent piece for the Spectator, I look at Dmitri Medvedev's decline and fall, from technocratic liberal hope to peddler of toxic anti-Western vitriol, and what this tells us about late Putinism: the hawkish turn, chameleonic politics, the need for scarecrows and the downside of Putin's loyalty. The Spectator piece is here You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Isn't it time to scrap the term 'oligarch'? In Russia - as perhaps, not in Ukraine - the time when rich people able to assert power because of their wealth (as opposed to getting wealthy because of their power) seems long gone. And a justice vs pragmatism question: will the International Criminal Court's decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin on war crimes charges, help the cause of peace? Sadly, although I don't think there is any doubt he is a war criminal, I fear not. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Why did Budapest 2023 remind me of Moscow 2007? Are Hungary or China 'pro-Russia'? What can we read into pro-Ukrainian neo-Nazi incursions into Russia and Kadyrov's claims that he wants to set up a mercenary company? And speaking of which, what on earth is PMC Ryodan? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Putin has finally set a date for his annual address to the Federal Assembly, 21 February. He will likely try to tread the balance between scaring and reassuring his audience, but it takes place at a time when there is evidence of the security state digging in for the long haul, not least with a reshuffle at the Security Council Secretariat. In the second half, I talk about Russian scifi, especially of the imperialist variety, and what we can learn from it. For those interested, I write about the Security Council here. Mikhail Suslov's article 'Of Planets and Trenches: Imperial Science Fiction in Contemporary Russia' is here, You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

The apparent hit on a Russian rightist, propagandist, and self-styled "swindler and mercenary" raises a range of questions about coordination in the Russian forces, the role of Evgeny Prigozhin and Russia's slide back towards the 'wild 90s.' Still, that's a better prospect than Putin's repeated invocation of the 1940s, most recently at the 80th anniversary of the battle of Stalingrad... You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

What does it mean that Western-designed tanks will now be supplied to Ukraine, and what - if any - potential responses does Putin have? At the very least, it will be used to hammer home the new notion of the 'New Patriotic War,' in an attempt to provide a rationalisation for totalitarianism. However, any unity imposed is just superficial - as the recent spat between Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin and Evgeny Prigozhin illustrates, there are growing divisions within the system. The Tsargrad article on Dugin I mentioned is here, the Izvestia one on Petr Pavel is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

So what might it mean for Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to be made the new overall commander of Russian operations in Ukraine? I suspect Putin is impatient for some kind of victory - and if Gerasimov absolutely has to provide it, then he will need to find some form of escalation. Details of the Chelsea Society event on 16 January I mentioned are here, and the Lewes Speakers Festival event on the 22nd (lots of other interesting authors, by the way) is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

A collection of topics: Putin's rather bellicose New Year Address and what to make of it, the limits of Russian politics, what to make of Medvedev's and Prigozhin's bizarre statements, and some good news, especially for those who consider Peruvian shaman to be soothsayers... The Russian cyber report I mentioned is here, Prigozhin's latest broadside is here, and news of the Peruvian shaman (in Russian) is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Is Putin contemplating fleeing to Venezuela? Is Medvedev more powerful than Patrushev? Does it make sense to decolonise Russia? Is a maverick spook spilling the beans on Putin's personal life? As a lack of hard information on inner Kremlin politics generates rumours and assumptions to fill the data vacuum, I ponder our analytic biases. The survey of 100 top politicians is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

What broader lessons about the changing nature of war, peace and power can we draw from the Russo-Ukrainian conflict? A more conceptual and rambling episode than usual... The Meduza article on FSO polling I mentioned is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

My own contribution to the current discussion about how Putin tries to use and abuse history, and how he doesn't even get Russian history right. And, after the break, the costs of the war to Russia and the all-too-often overlooked (not least by Putin) regional dimension. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

A fresh batch of Patrons' questions, clustered around Putin, his influences (no, Ivan Ilyin is not his guru) and decision-making; and then in the second half, how are the effects of invasion and sanctions reshaping Russian organised crime? You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

In the first part of the podcast, I address the first batch of questions put to me by my Patrons, including Prigozhin's authority and whether Putin really believes some of the increasingly bizarre nonsense that is being spouted by his officials. In the second part, I explore whether Russia might be tempted to follow North Korea in establishing a 'ministry of organised crime.' Oh, and do buy my new book Putin's Wars! The ECFR Crimintern report I mention (from 2017) is here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show