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The Political Trade

News & Politics Podcasts

The Political Trade is the only podcast devoted to political freaks and probability geeks seeking fun and profit in the political prediction markets. Host Jeff Joseph joins elite prediction market traders, polling experts, data scientists, and political insiders offering actionable insights on the week’s best trading opportunities. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. TPT listeners can get a free 10-issue digital subscription at getluckbox.com Join in on the political wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @luckboxmag @politicaltrader INSTAGRAM: @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

The Political Trade is the only podcast devoted to political freaks and probability geeks seeking fun and profit in the political prediction markets. Host Jeff Joseph joins elite prediction market traders, polling experts, data scientists, and political insiders offering actionable insights on the week’s best trading opportunities. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. TPT listeners can get a free 10-issue digital subscription at getluckbox.com Join in on the political wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @luckboxmag @politicaltrader INSTAGRAM: @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Location:

United States

Description:

The Political Trade is the only podcast devoted to political freaks and probability geeks seeking fun and profit in the political prediction markets. Host Jeff Joseph joins elite prediction market traders, polling experts, data scientists, and political insiders offering actionable insights on the week’s best trading opportunities. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. TPT listeners can get a free 10-issue digital subscription at getluckbox.com Join in on the political wagering at predictit.org/promo/TPT20 and we'll match the first $20 you invest. Follow us... TWITTER: @politicaltrader @luckboxmag FACEBOOK: @luckboxmag @politicaltrader INSTAGRAM: @luckboxmag YOUTUBE: http://bit.ly/31n1GJp

Language:

English

Contact:

7089547846


Episodes

Harry Crane: Polls, Markets, Georgia, Cahaly & Silver (#33)

12/16/2020
Rutgers University’s Harry Crane discusses his new research comparing the accuracy of polling models with the prediction markets following the November election, giving FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver another reason to troll tweet. Also, Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly tips off TPT to some potentially market-moving poll results he is about to release about the upcoming Georgia Senate races. Follow Harry Crane on Twitter @HarryDCrane, visit Researchers.One for his Models vs. Markets white...

Duration:01:17:34

Jo Jorgensen: No “Shy” Libertarian (#32)

10/21/2020
In this special episode, Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen teaches Libertarian 101. Dr. Jorgensen takes us to school about “shy Libertarian voters,” wasted red & blue votes, victimless crimes, Seagrams, meth, Edward Snowden, pre-existing medical conditions, big tech, the Clemson Tigers & cask-strength whiskey. Visit jo20.com and follow Jo Jorgensen on Twitter @Jorgensen4POTUS and @LPNational. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine....

Duration:00:45:48

31 for 31: The Best of TPT & VP Debate Recap (#31)

10/8/2020
Republicans, Democrats, partisans & wingnuts … There’s something for everyone in this special recap episode featuring favorite guests, moments and trades from our last 30 episodes. In the second half of the episode, Star Spangled Gamblers’ Pratik Chougule shares his post-VP debate analysis, as well as some trade ideas. TRENDS Our No-Fly Debate ZonePratik Chougule Predicts a Wave TRADES Florida BluesLongshot, or EC Money? Follow Pratik Chogule on Twitter @pjchougule and hear him regularly...

Duration:00:31:00

Robert Cahaly: The Polls Are So Wrong, Here’s Why (#30)

10/4/2020
Before you place any more political bets, check out pollster Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group’s explanation of why he beat his polling peers in the past two election cycles, how he nailed the Electoral College outcome in 2016 and why the polls are wrong again in 2020. Cahaly calls the swing states, two key Senate toss-ups and some Luckbox Longshot trades for less than a dime. TRENDS The Polls Are Wrong—Here’s WhyThere IS a Shy Trump Voter Correcting for Social Desirability BiasNate Silver...

Duration:01:16:43

Pro Punter Plots Barrett, Biden & Boris (#29)

9/26/2020
Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty returns to The Political Trade after going four-for-four on his prior trades. Paul shares his Biden-favoring election day hedging strategy, three new high-return trades and a Luckbox Lockbox trade with a big upside! TRENDS U.K. & Betfair Pricing RBG and the Debates2016 Misdeeds & Midterm Misreads TACTICS: High-Performance Biden HedgesSwinging for the Swing States TRADES Popular Vote MoV BracketsNext European Leader Out on the DimeEC MoV Brackets THE...

Duration:01:05:53

The Insider’s Guide to Election Night Trading (#28)

9/9/2020
Super-trader Jason Pipkin returns to The Political Trade after nailing major forecasts ahead of Super Tuesday in his first appearance. This time, he’s sharing the essential tips, tricks and skills necessary to trade successfully—and profitably—on election night. TRENDS Jason’s contest for political traders TACTICS: Election Night The County LineFlorida, Man & NC StateThe Websites You Need to Know TRADES Buy Biden BetterThe Safety DanceIf/When to Board the Trump Train THE LUCKBOX...

Duration:01:00:17

Allan Lichtman: Batting a Thousand Since 1984* (#27)

9/2/2020
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at The American University, holds “The Keys to the White House” — his proven, proprietary model for forecasting presidential elections that correctly called the 2016 election for Donald Trump, as well as every other presidential outcome since 1984. This TPT episode compares the model’s predictive accuracy to polling, and delves into each of Lichtman’s proprietary 13 Keys. "The Keys to the White House" is available on Amazon. Follow Allan Lichtman on...

Duration:01:04:31

Blagojevich Trades: Battleground States & Clemency (#26)

8/31/2020
Former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich returns for Part 2 of his TPT appearance. In Part 2, Blago enters the trading pits of PredictIt.org, analyzing the markets and sharing his unique perspectives, opinions and forecasts as a former state governor. A total of eight markets are called in all, including the market for Paul Manafort’s clemency, markets for a couple key battleground states, a more obscure Illinois-focused market, and the big one: “Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential...

Duration:00:37:09

Rod Blagojevich: Prison, Populism & the Presidency (#25)

8/27/2020
When he took office in 2003, Rod Blagojevich was the first Democrat elected to be Illinois’ governor in 30 years. Riding a populist wave, he racked up progressive political victories until he was taken into federal custody on corruption charges in 2008. After serving eight years of his 14-year sentence, Blagojevich had his sentence commuted by President Donald Trump in February 2020. In this provocative two-part series, the former governor tells all, revealing his frustration, wisdom,...

Duration:01:28:50

Mark Vargas: Breaking Blago & Presidential Pardons (#24)

8/20/2020
Mark Vargas has more than earned his political insider credentials as the so-called “mystery man” who achieved the impossible: nearly single-handedly brokering Trump’s commutation of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s 14-year prison sentence. But that’s not all. Vargas also assisted in securing Roger Stone’s recent commutation. He tells the full story, as well as sharing his insights on Jared Kushner, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, Michael Flynn & Paul Manafort that you don’t want to miss. In...

Duration:01:22:28

David Rothschild: Predictions vs. Polling (#23)

8/13/2020
David Rothschild rings the TPT bell, and Nate Silver’s ears are ringing. Rothschild, a Microsoft Research data scientist and economist, breaks down prediction markets and takes down FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver in a discussion about the relative merits of polling vs. prediction markets. In Part 2, Rothschild enters the trading pits and serves up Electoral College and Florida trading ideas. Follow Rothschild on Twitter @DavMicRot TRENDS Does Kamala Harris Move the Needle?Does Nate Silver...

Duration:00:47:47

240,000% Return!—He Turned $50 Into $120K (#22)

7/15/2020
Longtime prediction market trader Travis Lloyd, known to PredictIt traders as “baselevel,” brings more than just an impressive (and verified) tale of how he turned a $50 investment into $120,000. He also brings scotch! Travis shares some of his political insights, a trick he uses for achieving upwards of a third of his returns, why he’s negative on negative risk and three trade ideas. TIPPLES Glenlivet 15, FEW Bourbon & Usquaebach’s An Ard Ri TRENDS The Lincoln Project Goes Down-Ballot &...

Duration:00:55:27

David Byler: WaPo Data Man Flips Red States Blue (#21)

7/11/2020
Washington Post data analyst and political columnist David Byler talks partisanship and the BLM movement’s likely impact on the upcoming presidential election. In the TRADES segment, he enters the PredictIt trading pits with 12 forecasts, including seven state general elections, Mike Pence, the Democratic VP and yet another Luckbox Lockbox trade! Subscribe to David’s weekly newsletter, The Odds, where he shares what we can — and can't — know about the 2020 election here:...

Duration:00:55:58

Yeez, We Kanye—But, Will He? (#20)

7/5/2020
This year’s Fourth of July saw fireworks not only erupting in the sky, but also on social media following a viral tweet by Kanye West. The rapper, singer, songwriter, record producer, composer, entrepreneur, and fashion designer may soon don a new title: presidential candidate. In this breaking news episode of TPT, we go through the biggest stories moving the markets on PredictIt, dedicating special attention to West’s potential presidential bid and what it means for the stakes of the 2020...

Duration:00:38:54

Dylan Ratigan Trades: Thinking Outside the Lockbox (#19)

6/26/2020
Equipped with raw intuition and unique insights, Dylan Ratigan returns in Part 2, ready to tackle the prediction markets of PredictIt. Wasting no time, Dylan walks through a total of 10 markets, sharing the picks he thinks have the highest probability in each. TRADES include: Handicapping Biden’s health through November, Senate control, the Electoral College and Michelle Obama’s fandom. Dylan then jumps to Trump mispricing and ends the episode with the highest-payout “Luckbox Lockbox” trade...

Duration:00:19:00

Dylan Ratigan: They’re All Greedy Bastards (#18)

6/25/2020
Dylan Ratigan has so much to say about what is wrong with politics today, it took two episodes. We begin by asking Dylan to revisit his memorably viral on-air MSNBC rant. Also in Part 1, Dylan riffs on partisanship, redistricting, ranked balloting, running for office, the two-party system and prediction markets’ political biases. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT TPT newsletter, ask...

Duration:00:35:55

Free Money—The Trader’s Guide to Negative Risk (#17)

6/12/2020
Not all headlines are clickbait — at the request of a TPT listener, this episode explains the ins and outs of a political prediction market strategy that results in free money! It's called “Negative Risk.” Tricky at first, but TPT super trader Scott “Sazerac” Supak uses the Democratic VP market to illustrate the trading tactic where the house pays you back for each new trade. TPT Mailbag Rachel Bitecofer, PredictIt’s Tweet Retreat & A Letter From Johnny Ringo TACTICS The Ultimate Intro to...

Duration:00:57:05

Rachel Bitecofer: The Hottest Hand in Handicapping (#16)

6/4/2020
In this special episode, we walk Rachel “the Doc” Bitecofer, the hottest hand in election handicapping, into the political trading pit for her very first time. She earned her cred by nailing the 2018 midterms, and her 2020 election model is the talk of the Beltway. So we put her to work, talking through more than a dozen prediction markets and sharing her most promising forecasts. Part 1: Profiting From Political Partisanship (2:47) Part 2: The Election Whisperer Rings the TPT Trading Bell...

Duration:00:54:45

Making Bank on Trump’s Tweets (#15)

5/28/2020
Against the backdrop of President Trump’s Twitter feuds and recent executive order regarding social media censorship, TPT enlists super trader Derek Phillips (the $400,000 man from Episodes 5 and 6) to tackle PredictIt’s notorious tweet markets, currently accounting for as much as 80% of his prediction market fortune. Secrets shared—must listen. TRENDS (10:23) Executive Orders, Recession & Minny-markets TACTICS (22:21) Mastering the Tweet Markets: Monetizing the Middle with the Phillips...

Duration:00:57:12

Bonus Episode: TPT on Hard Factor

5/21/2020
In this bonus episode, TPT’s Jeff Joseph joins Barstool Sports’ Hard Factor News team to talk about politics, prediction markets and some unusual laws governing the state of Florida. Many thanks to Hard Factor’s Wes, Mark, Will and Pat for letting us share this previously aired Hard Factor segment. Find them on the Barstool Sports Network. The Political Trade is brought to you by the award-winning Luckbox magazine. Get your FREE 10-issue digital subscription: getluckbox.com/TPT 5-Star...

Duration:00:27:32