The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The Finance Minister is concerned about an expected spike in inflation. The inflation rate has remained unchanged at 3.1% in the March quarter, despite forecasts of a drop. ASB economists now expect it to approach 4.5% this quarter, remain above 4% until the end of the year, and remain above 3% until at least the middle of next year. Nicola Willis told Mike Hosking there's no doubt inflation will rise this quarter. She’s also refusing to name the five disgruntled National MPs that Christopher Luxon says are behind party leaks to the media. Luxon's passed a vote of confidence at yesterday's lengthy caucus meeting, but MPs aren't revealing details of the vote, including how many of them supported Luxon. Newstalk ZB understands the disgruntled MPs are Joseph Mooney, Andrew Bayley, Sam Uffindell, Barbara Kuriger, and Tim van de Molen. Willis told Hosking she won’t throw colleagues under the bus without evidence. She says each of the five have said they haven't leaked to the media and support a unified caucus. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You’ll be aware of the Far North Council and their unelected Māori voting plan. It is of course a scandal, but more importantly it is part of the overall de-Māorification of the economy this current Government, in one form or another, promised to address. The fact this stuff is still going on proves they are failing. ACT’s Todd Stevenson the other day wrote to Public Service Minister Judith Collins asking about Māori names in government departments. She said there was a war on, and we had better things to do. Fair point? Or convenient excuse? The simple truth is what they promised and what has happened are two different things. Enter ACT, who are now promising to ban the Far North type of behaviour. Is that a double promise? Didn't you already say you would do that? Here is the problem with it: 1) ACT aren’t running the Government; they are merely part of it. Unless they make it a bottom line, which they won’t, it may or may not see the light of day after the election. 2) Given their well-promoted stance on race-based policy, going into another election having had the opportunity to fix it already, you have a credibility problem. And 3) My sense of this as a broad-based issue is it isn't what it once might have been. Personally, I find Māorification problematic. To give someone rules, or money, or decisions of names, or a job based on race is simply irrefutably wrong. But the fervour with which that was argued a couple of years ago doesn’t appear to be quite as white hot. Yes, there is a very vocal group who seem to have made it their raison d'être, but they are small and many of them are rabid, which makes the appeal of the overall argument to the broader populace less enticing. You might also argue that against this wall of determination was an even bigger wall of determination, i.e. those who believe in it, think it's good, who have held the line and carried on. And can I suggest that at this point, and the Far North Council are your gold star example, it is they who are the more successful of the two camps. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Britain's Prime Minister is accusing officials of withholding information from him before he appointed Peter Mandelson US ambassador. Sir Keir Starmer sacked Mandelson in September last year over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Starmer says officials deliberately didn't tell him Mandelson has failed security vetting, and he wouldn't have cleared Mandelson to the role if he'd known. UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking neither the arguments of the Government nor those of then-Foreign Office boss Sir Olly Robbins make sense. He says the situation is catastrophic. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s no doubt ‘The Boys’ is one of the biggest shows on television at the moment. It’s in its fifth and final season and has been one of Amazon’s biggest hits – season 4 drawing in 55 million viewers. The satirical superhero show is helmed by two well-known Kiwis, Antony Starr, who plays Homelander, and Karl Urban, who plays Billy Butcher. Urban is actually in the midst of one of the busiest stretches of his career, playing not only Butcher, but starring in ‘The Bluff’ and the upcoming Mortal Kombat II. “This year has just been one nonstop sequence of hopping on planes and travelling around the world, talking about all these shows,” he told Mike Hosking. “It’s a good spot to be in.” The media landscape has changed tremendously over the span of Urban’s career, and while there are some downsides, there are also some “real positives”. “I mean, the advent of streaming, for example, has allowed us to tell stories in a tone that you never would have been able to tell on television, or even in movies for that fact, before,” he explained. “On one hand there’s been this amazing expansion in possibilities, but then also, you know, there’s also a certain contraction going on ... but at the moment I’m in a great position, and just really enjoying playing these characters and delivering something fun to the audience.” The arrival of streaming has also allowed projects like ‘The Boys’ to gain global recognition and reach a wide audience, something that wasn’t possible in the past. “In the old days it used to be a very, sort of finite number of networks globally, and they had a sort of, a certain audience,” Urban said. “[The Boys is] a global phenomenon. I’ve never experienced anything like it,” “You know, the fan base is so supportive of this show, and it’s really incredible to get to the end of this sort of nine-year journey, and to be going out on top.” But all things must come to an end, and for Urban, it’s bittersweet. “It’s been a hell of a ride,” he said. “I’m really gonna miss it, but I’m also very grateful that we have the opportunity to tell the story that we want to tell and go out at the point that we want to go out.” LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 21st of April, BNZ’s Chief Economist looks ahead to the inflation data set to be released this morning, and Air NZ CEO Nikhil Ravishankar discusses the latest on jet fuel stocks and price increases. Buckle up – Mike names the five National MPs seemingly behind the discontent within the party. Kiwi actor Karl Urban discusses the final season of The Boys and expresses his love for Mike watching the Warriors. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A fuel squeeze is driving higher airfares and stronger demand for Air New Zealand, particularly on international routes. Long-haul fares have jumped 25% over the past year, trans-Tasman 20%, and domestic flights 10%. Jet fuel stocks have climbed to 51.4 days, according to the latest figures. Chief Executive Nikhil Ravishankar told Mike Hosking long-haul is 'a double-edged sword' – costly in fuel but buoyed by rising demand, with New Zealand being one of the safer passages available. He says that's why they're being careful about how much long haul flying they consolidate. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rural schools are welcoming extra support from the Government to deal with rising fuel costs. Small schools will receive one-off additional funding, and 70 schools will receive a one-off grant to speed up the replacement of diesel boilers. Mileage support for rural relief teachers is also being doubled. Rural Schools Leadership Association president Andrew King told Mike Hosking it's been hard for country schools to soak up these extra costs. He says having that extra money means they won't have to think about where to pool money from. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's inflation numbers won't reflect the full impact of the war in the Middle East. The first quarter of this year's expected to show a dip in annual inflation after 2025 ended with a rate of 3.1%. Bank economists are predicting an inflation rate between 2.8 and 3.1%. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking despite not showing the current picture, there will still be some interest in today’s numbers – particularly the core inflation figures. He says that if they ease, it’ll give the Reserve Bank a bit more rope to look through some of the shock, and if they strengthen, it’ll probably excite those calling for earlier rate increases. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Insurance companies are getting very specific when assessing which properties are exposed to risks like flooding, an insurance expert says, but there’s a limit. An intense storm like the one that hit some Wellington suburbs yesterday could have happened anywhere, making the risk much harder to pin down to individual properties, Bryce Davies —climate spokesperson for AMI, State, and NZI— told Mike Hosking. If people didn’t address the risks to their properties from flooding and wind damage it would “absolutely” have an impact on their insurance premiums, he said. Insurers would also be increasingly focused on perils like landslips in the coming years. But Davies said AMI, State, and NZI weren’t making blanket decisions to pull insurance from some areas. “We’re here to insure people…that’s our business and so we’re focused on making sure that we can do that.” LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Opioid detections in workplaces are rising sharply. Workplace testing firm the Drug Detection Agency says detections of opioids like morphine and fentanyl has increased by more than a third in the past year. In Taranaki, it's recording almost five times as many opioids as the previous year. Chief Executive Glenn Dobson told Mike Hosking the stats will vary in comparison to wastewater, but they’re certainly a reflection of a subset of society. He says anecdotally, they’re hearing a softening attitude around some drug taking. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The idea of reducing reliance on fossil fuels, including the Green Party's new electrification plan, is often met with criticism that not everything can be switched over, but Mike Casey, CEO of Rewiring Aotearoa, says that isn't the immediate goal. "My focus is mainly on households at the moment, which is basically gas in the households and also electric vehicles, putting solar on the roof and batteries in the garage. We've got to start somewhere," Casey told Mike Hosking. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Far-right politician Pauline Hanson's party One Nation has seen an unexpected surge in popularity ahead of this year's election, and Hanson's stardom has skyrocketed as a result. Australia correspondent Steve Price told Mike Hosking about his encounter with her at a local football club. "She walked in and got a standing ovation from people, and then a queue formed to her right of mainly young people I would say. And they all wanted a selfie, they all wanted to have a picture taken with Pauline Hanson." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday 20 April. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

You know exactly how today is going to go. The Prime Minister does the media rounds this morning. There will be no shortage of cortisol spiked journalists hanging off every word, double dissecting every pause and utterance—many of them desperate to write something disparaging about a man they’ve already decided they dislike. I wouldn’t be Luxon for quids. He’s been dealt a shit hand. Worse than the media, though, are the stirrers inside his own party. The selfishness and bare knuckle self preservation on display is disgraceful. You buy into a deal in life and you stick to it. You join a company, take a job, make a promise—whatever it is. In an MP’s case, you’re part of a three year deal. During that time you are honest, transparent, hardworking, loyal, and dedicated. Clearly—and history backs this up—National has a recurring issue here. Right now, we have a few people who appear willing to put themselves and their own survival ahead of the collective. As I said on Friday, nothing is coming of this. Luxon isn’t quitting. There is no coup. They don’t have the numbers—and they don’t have the stomach for it. Here’s the truly absurd part of their foolishness: even if there were a major problem (and there isn’t), there is no obvious answer. National’s strength is that it has depth. There’s real talent and a solid group of capable operators—Willis, Bishop, Stanford, Mitchell, Brown, Penk, McClay. They’re good at their jobs. But no one among them is some mythical tide turner. This isn’t a Little to Ardern moment, it's a Shipley to Bolger or Lange to Palmer moment. History tells us that when parties panic, they almost always regret it. There is, in fact, nothing fundamentally wrong with Luxon. No, he isn’t John Key—and he’s not Gandhi either—but he is competent, effective, and successfully leads a workable three party collaboration. National sitting around the low 30s is not evidence of failure. It’s the natural outcome of governing with three solid parties. The era of easy 40% peaks is over. That reality shouldn’t be played out publicly through destabilising nonsense by people who can’t accept it. Peters and Seymour should be just as concerned. They’re surrounded by amateur political operators within National who are perfectly capable of dragging all of them back into opposition. So yes, we’ll ask the questions. But in an increasingly troubled world, isn’t it painfully small town New Zealand to be bogged down in village level idiocy—driven by self serving nobodies whose vision extends no more than two centimetres in front of their noses—rather than focusing on genuinely important issues of global consequence and how we navigate our way through them? LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After briefly re-opening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran closed it again after the US did not meet demands to unblock Iranian ports. Former US Army Major General told Mike Hosking, "unfortunately, I have to say that the Iranians have assessed the situation probably the most accurate, which is there's inconsistency on the American position, and we just don't know where this is going." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yesterday New Zealand First announced a campaign policy to break up New Zealand's supermarket duopoly. Woolworths and Foodstuffs currently control over 80 percent of the grocery market. NZ First leader Winston Peters told Mike Hosking he isn't pursuing this now because, "the National Party is not for it, the ACT Party is not for it. I mean, they've got their policies which are to stagger on with the Commerce Commission that's not working." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister's rubbishing the latest poll - showing the left bloc in a position to win the election. The 1 News Verian Poll has the left on 66 seats to the right bloc's 58 - assuming Te Pāti Māori keeps its six seats. Our newsroom understands multiple MPs are believed to be unhappy with Luxon’s performance and want his leadership discussed. Christopher Luxon has been rejecting talk of a challenge to his leadership - and says [told Mike Hosking] he doesn't buy the results of this latest poll. He says he simply doesn't believe Kiwis want Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, when New Zealand needs strong economic management and a stable coalition government. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government has quietly agreed to repeal a number of references to the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi within laws, and amending others. Despite ongoing conversations since February, no one from within the Government had spoken publicly about the move or made any announcement. The Ministry of Justice said this would ensure “better outcomes and more consistent decision-making”. Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith spoke to Mike Hosking about the decision. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A bloke called Roman Gofman could be the key to all this. Gofman is the incoming Director of Mossad. If you believe the story about the war, Netanyahu got the intel that the heavyweights in Iran would all be in the same room on that fateful Saturday. So, if there was ever a time to strike this was it. Netanyahu convinced Trump. Netanyahu was advised by Gofman, who also believed that if you hit them hard they would fall over, and quickly, and regime change would be complete. They were all wrong and badly so. That’s why in the initial video Trump told the people of Iran the country would be theirs to take. It clearly isn't. You can ask the question, I guess, if Gofman was that wrong on Iran, is he still the bloke to run Mossad? If they didn’t see the regime not falling over, they also didn’t see the Strait of Hormuz becoming the cluster it has. The IMF report yesterday laid bare just how globally significant this excursion has become and how much pressure goes back onto the shoulders of Trump, who will singularly be held responsible for a global recession if a deal isn't cut. Talks look promising and I'm convinced a deal will be done. What sort of deal? Who knows. Israel, who really should be held as responsible as Trump but won't be, will hold direct talks with Lebanon. In positive news it seems the country is trying to disassociate themselves from Hezbollah. That may well become a thing, which if you dovetail the Iran/America deal, and that involves no more sponsorship of proxies, could it be that globally Hezbollah are toast along with the Houthis and maybe even Hamas? Scott Bessent, who appears from the more normal part of the White House, was rolled out yesterday to remind us of the big picture. This war, the talks, the IMF report and the mess is but a moment in time that will vanish if Iran gets stripped of the ability to blow the planet up. Which brings us back to the original question and intent: was getting nuclear out of Iran a good idea and would it be worth it? I still think as a theory, yes, and a lot of the world would agree. But that hasn’t happened yet and the brains that’s started it —Gofman, Netanyahu, and Trump— don't have the same international standing as they did six weeks ago. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all. The war: 6/10 Mark my words, this is closer to the end than many think. Round two of talks, a squeeze on the Strait – the Iranians are about to capitulate. Moana Pasifika: 4/10 In a competition already lacking sparkle, this can't have helped. And also, perhaps a lesson in starting something for the right reasons, not ideological ones. The Crusaders' horses: 3/10 That's a 30-year legacy we will miss. Emma Aitken: 7/10 Pleased she wasn’t booted, but nor should she have been. What a storm in a bone china, Northern Club teacup. The BSA: 7/10 Can't wait to see the back of them. Good luck and good night. LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.