RaboResearch Agri Commodities

Weather risks, USD strength, and geopolitical instability are driving volatility in grains and oilseeds with cumulative open interest in agriculture at record levels. Charlie Clack and Carlos Mera review Rabobank's latest price outlooks on the major agri futures markets, including wheat, soybeans, coffee and cotton.

Senior analyst Oscar Tjakra discusses the palm oil price outlook for 2018 and the latest developments in the South-East Asian palm oil industry. Palm oil production is set to decrease in South-East Asia post-2021, due to land moratorium and slow replanting.

Sterling Liddell and Bill Nickrent discuss the risks for the corn market related to declining stocks and remarkably low planted acres planned for 2018. This podcast episode was originally released on our North American podcast channel RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North America. Rabo Agrifinance is Rabobank Group's agricultural finance department in North America.

Carlos Mera and Charles Clack discuss what’s in store for soft commodity markets in the year ahead, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2018—Good Buy, Low Prices. Global consumption trends, production prospects, and currency shifts provide the backdrop to an optimistic price outlook.

Graydon Chong and Charles Clack talk over the big price drivers for major grain & oilseed markets in 2018, as highlighted in their latest report, Outlook 2018—Good Buy, Low Prices. Tightening balance sheets, major weather risks, and shifting trade flows come into the spotlight.

As of 1 October, the new EU sugar regime is in place, creating opportunities and challenges for various stakeholders in Europe and beyond. RaboResearch analyst Ruud Schers discusses the key rules of the new regime, along with its main implications for farmers and sugar producers. Plus we look at the impact this will have on the market, including Rabobank's outlook for 2017/18.

The S&P Agri Index has remained virtually unchanged so far in September, despite an increase of 10% in Brent crude prices. Softs saw some volatility, with cotton down 8% and coffee arabica up 4%. Going forward, the market will look at the US harvest for confirmation on the high expected yields, while South American plantings will shed light on the extent of the switch from corn to soybeans.

The S&P agri index has continued to decline throughout August and is 11% down from its July highs. The bearish sentiment was exacerbated by an overwhelmingly bearish USDA August WASDE for grains, oilseeds, and cotton. Coffee, sugar, and cocoa have also all traded lower through August, and we anticipate weather volatility to play a part both in North & South America.

Agri commodity analysts Graydon Chong and Carlos Mera discuss market dynamics for key agri commodities such as wheat, sugar, corn, and coffee. As we move to the critical growing phase of US grains & oilseeds, we see a lot of weather volatility ahead. The S&P agri index remained virtually unchanged in July. Sugar and arabica coffee were well supported by a 4.9% appreciation of the Brazilian real during the period, but the wheat rally came to a halt.

After witnessing softening international sugar prices through 2017, Andy Duff provides his view on the market dynamics that drive these movements and, most importantly, what’s in store for the coming season. Here in Australia, we come to terms with a challenging and uncertain 2017 for many growers.