The latest US economic reports have been positive for the economy. The grain markets lack a bullish catalyst to get the funds out of their record short positions. Hogs continue to be supported but Cattle may have a hard time sustaining rallies. Crude Oil seems to be range bound and that is how we plan to trade it. Make sure you check out this week's Turner's Take Podcast!
The USDA released their April WASDE yesterday and it was bearish corn as expected. Much of the bearish news was already priced in after the March Quarterly Stocks report. In the podcast we go over the recent Fed comments, an update on the US/China deal, why we see the grain markets as range bound, our bullish view on hogs, our bearish view on cattle, and what we are waiting on before we take a position in crude oil. Make sure you check out the latest episode of Turner's Take Podcast!
One March 29th the USDA shocked the corn market as Quarterly Stocks came in 270mm bushels higher than expected. New crop corn acre expectations are set at 92.8mm! Old crop closed 17 cents lower on the day and new crop was down 12. While the markets have recovered some, the damage is done and it has caused us to do a rethink on potential price ranges this year. Listen to Turner's Take Podcast to find out more!
In our new podcast we go over the recent FOMC decision to put a hold on interest rate hikes and unwinding the Fed's balance sheet. We go over how ASF in China has lead to the Chinese buying pork from the US. We also go over the flooding in the the western Midwest and northern Plains and what it means for corn, soybeans and wheat. Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast!
We are back from Commodity Classic in Orlando, FL! Thanks for everyone who came by booth 1061 and said hello. We had a lot of Turner's Take Podcast listeners come by. That was great and made the trip worth it. I tried to do a podcast from our booth but the sound quality was awful. Oh well. In our podcast today we go over what we heard at Commodity Classic, the US/China trade deal, and our outlook on grains, livestock, and energy. Make sure you check out our latest episode of Turner's Take...
The macro markets are turning bullish as the US government nears a budget deal and the US & China make progress on trade. The S&P is now above the 200 day moving average. This should all be supportive of the overall markets. Ag and Energy traders will be watching the US/China negotiations at all times. We go over our ideas on corn, soybeans, crude, RBOB gasoline, hogs, cattle, coffee, sugar, and cotton. Make sure you take a listen to the podcast!
The WASDE came out today and all the estimates came out as expected. I can not remember a more uneventful report with so much data being released. It is clear that the market is waiting on a US/China trade deal resolution. Going forward we see the markets are range bound and we will trade them accordingly starting Monday. Make sure you take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast for a deeper dive into the report!
The February WASDE is tomorrow and it is a combination of the January and February reports. We will see Quarterly and Annual Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings. This has the potential to be a volatile report for the grain and oilseed markets. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast!
The US government is back open, we will have a WASDE report on Feb 8, and the US/China trade talks are back on. South American weather is stabilizing, US new crop acreage estimates are coming in, and the USDA will start announcing export sales data starting tomorrow. A lot is going on and you need to stay informed. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast!
Informa came out with estimated acres and pegged soybeans at 86.2mm and corn at 91.5mm. Based on the conversations I've had with farmers since the new year I tend to agree with these numbers. 91.5mm acres and 178 trend line yield keeps corn under 2.0 billion carryout, which I think is neutral. It can be bullish with more export demand and spring planting/summer weather issues. 86.2mm for soybeans with a 50 trend line yield puts new crop ending stocks around 600. Not great. That is already...
In this week's podcast we go over our thoughts on the stock market and why it tends to have a bullish bias over time. We talk about the range bound nature in crude oil and why we might be seeing some "buy the rumor, sell the fact" in Natural Gas next week. We dive into why cocoa and sugar might be bearish while coffee has more potential as a bull market. Then we wrap up with why we need corn to gain on soybeans for new acres and what to look for in hogs and cattle. Make sure you take a...
We are now in the first full week of trading in 2019 and the markets are trading higher for the most part. The US dollar is down and metals are struggling a bit, but the stock market, crude, grains, and livestock are generally higher. We go over all the major futures market sectors and give our opinions for each in the latest episode!
Today is the last trading day of the year and it should be relatively quiet. President Trump over the weekend tweeted that the US and China are making "big progress" on trade talks. China says they are willing to meet the US "half way" on the Intellectual Property disputes. We are also waiting on China to buy more ag products from the US. The market expects another 2mm mt of soybean purchases.
The holiday markets have been all over the place during the past few trading sessions. Today we are getting a relief rally and it remains to be seen if this is a true reversal. The problem is the low volume. One can make the argument we probably went down to much during low volume last week and Christmas Eve and now we are coming up too fast on low volume today. That is how it is around the holidays if the market is volatile.
The FOMC announced rate hikes of 0.25% yesterday, bringing the overnight Fed rate to 2.25% to 2.50%. The market took this as bearish as they hoped the Fed we ease off interest rate hikes in the face of the stock market correction. Lost in the bearish mood is the fact the Fed only sees 2 rate increases in 2019, which is less than the 3 to 4 that had been expected.
China bought 1mm mt of soybeans this morning and the market is expecting at least another 1mm mt before the weekend. 2mm mt is just under 80mm bushels. Assuming this is all in old crop sales, carryout goes from 950 to 870.
The US and China reached a trade truce over the weekend at the G20 meeting. For now the market is cautiously optimistic about the deal. Shorts covered today but we did not see new buying. For the markets to rally further we need to see real export demand come to the US from China
The G20 meeting is Friday and Saturday in Argentina. The G20 is a group of leading economic nations who get together to address pressing economic issues. During this meeting nations will get together who need to address specific issues just between them. There are two of these discussions that are of particular note to our markets.
Happy Thanksgiving! In this week's podcast we go over the big movement in Natural Gas. Then, I talk about some of the special podcasts I plan to do, like trading in limit markets, in-depth looks at the spread markets, and many more. So be on the lookout for those! Finally, we finish up with the grain and livestock markets.