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Episodes

Turner’s Take Podcast: Planted Acres Report Could Disappoint

6/25/2019
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I'm back from my family vacation/reunion and it doesn't look like much has changed. This Friday we have the Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres report. I think stocks will be high as higher grain prices have hurt US exports. I also think the Planted Acres report could disappoint the bulls. Planted Acres are based on seeded and expected acres as of June 1. Corn and soybean acres will probably be higher than what the market is trading currently. Weather will be critical for the rest of the...

Duration:00:24:42

Turner’s Take Podcast: WASDE Bullish Corn

6/11/2019
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I think corn could have a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday. After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.

Duration:00:20:15

Turner’s Take Podcast: Crop Conditions and WASDE Could Disappoint Next Week

6/6/2019
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I think corn could have a rough go of it early next week. If so then I think we start to bottom out on Wednesday. After we get the initial crop conditions report out of the way and the WASDE, the market goes back to acres, yield, and how the balance sheets could change going forward.

Duration:00:11:41

Turner’s Take Podcast: Corn Crop Conditions Next Week

6/4/2019
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Corn and soybeans are consolidating while the Crop Progress reports confirm slow planting. If there is going to be a next leg higher in these markets will have to come from yield reductions. From what we are hearing, next Monday the USDA will release the first corn crop conditions report. That will let us see what is rated Good/Excellent and what is Poor/Very Poor. We expect soybean conditions to be released the week after. We go over our Supply & Demand estimates to estimate what it will...

Duration:00:25:04

Turner’s Take Podcast: CBOT Consolidation

5/29/2019
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Since our last podcast the USDA has announced some details on the farm aid package, new crop corn traded $4.54, new crop soybeans traded $9.18, corn planting was 59% completed, soybean planting 29% completed, and the funds are probably now flat corn. A lot has changed and there is probably more to come. Make sure you check out the latest Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:28:37

Turner’s Take Podcast: Soybeans On Deck?

5/21/2019
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Another week and more planting delays. The funds are still heavily short corn and soybeans. We are well behind the pace for planting, and now we have concerns for acres and yield in both corn and beans. Grain continue to have the potential to rally even as China prepares for a "New Long March" and a possible trade cold war with the US. Make sure you take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast

Duration:00:27:13

Turner’s Take Podcast: Good Old-Fashioned Weather Market

5/15/2019
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We have have a good old-fashioned weather market on our hands. Analysts are now reducing acres and yield for corn and their is a possibility we lose 1 billion bushels in production. Soybean yields are starting to be adjusted lower too. We still have a moderately bullish view of the stock market and hogs. We think cattle is due for a bounce higher but the longer term outlook still looks bearish. Make sure you take a listen to this weeks Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:28:55

Turner’s Take Podcast: Friday is a Big, Big Day for the CBOT

5/8/2019
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In this podcast we go over why I am now very pessimistic about a US-China deal and why the May WASDE report may be more bearish than expected. The US-China deal is could drag out for a very long time if this is all about IP and Technology Transfer, which I think it is. China needs to change laws and their political/economic system to meet the demands from the Trump Administration. At this point I can see both sides walking away, tariffs raised, and the US government offer support payments...

Duration:00:31:53

Turner’s Take Podcast: Funds Trapped Long Cattle – May 3, 2019

5/3/2019
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In our latest podcast we go over the impressive US jobs numbers, the weather market developing in corn planting, and how the funds are trapped long in live cattle. Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:20:52

Turner’s Take Podcast: US Economy Firms while Grains Sink

4/24/2019
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In our latest podcast we go over why the stock market has rallied, why we could see some weakness due to a "double top", and why we like buying the breaks. We are excited about the new micro emini S&P 500 contract and we explain why and how we are going to use it. We then dive into the hogs and why we think it will be a long bull market in the deferred contracts. Cattle may have some issues as the fats reverse on the chart and feeders are not looking good either. The grain markets have...

Duration:00:33:46

Turner’s Take Podcast: US Economy Improving

4/17/2019
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The latest US economic reports have been positive for the economy. The grain markets lack a bullish catalyst to get the funds out of their record short positions. Hogs continue to be supported but Cattle may have a hard time sustaining rallies. Crude Oil seems to be range bound and that is how we plan to trade it. Make sure you check out this week's Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:25:19

Turner’s Take Podcast: Grains, Livestock, and Crude Oil

4/10/2019
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The USDA released their April WASDE yesterday and it was bearish corn as expected. Much of the bearish news was already priced in after the March Quarterly Stocks report. In the podcast we go over the recent Fed comments, an update on the US/China deal, why we see the grain markets as range bound, our bullish view on hogs, our bearish view on cattle, and what we are waiting on before we take a position in crude oil. Make sure you check out the latest episode of Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:35:01

Turner’s Take Podcast: USDA Sinks Grains

4/3/2019
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One March 29th the USDA shocked the corn market as Quarterly Stocks came in 270mm bushels higher than expected. New crop corn acre expectations are set at 92.8mm! Old crop closed 17 cents lower on the day and new crop was down 12. While the markets have recovered some, the damage is done and it has caused us to do a rethink on potential price ranges this year. Listen to Turner's Take Podcast to find out more!

Duration:00:25:47

Turner’s Take Podcast: US Floods and China ASF Send Livestock Higher

3/21/2019
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In our new podcast we go over the recent FOMC decision to put a hold on interest rate hikes and unwinding the Fed's balance sheet. We go over how ASF in China has lead to the Chinese buying pork from the US. We also go over the flooding in the the western Midwest and northern Plains and what it means for corn, soybeans and wheat. Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:27:55

Turner’s Take Podcast: Wheat Reversal – March 12, 2019

3/12/2019
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In our new podcast we go over the macro economy, the latest in the US/China deal, the wheat reversal, why we like corn, hogs, and crude but we don't love cattle!

Duration:00:18:02

Turner’s Take Podcast: Back From Commodity Classic

3/5/2019
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We are back from Commodity Classic in Orlando, FL! Thanks for everyone who came by booth 1061 and said hello. We had a lot of Turner's Take Podcast listeners come by. That was great and made the trip worth it. I tried to do a podcast from our booth but the sound quality was awful. Oh well. In our podcast today we go over what we heard at Commodity Classic, the US/China trade deal, and our outlook on grains, livestock, and energy. Make sure you check out our latest episode of Turner's Take...

Duration:00:18:48

Turner’s Take Podcast: Waiting on a Trade Deal

2/13/2019
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The macro markets are turning bullish as the US government nears a budget deal and the US & China make progress on trade. The S&P is now above the 200 day moving average. This should all be supportive of the overall markets. Ag and Energy traders will be watching the US/China negotiations at all times. We go over our ideas on corn, soybeans, crude, RBOB gasoline, hogs, cattle, coffee, sugar, and cotton. Make sure you take a listen to the podcast!

Duration:00:27:27

Turner’s Take Podcast: February 2019 USDA Report Review

2/8/2019
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The WASDE came out today and all the estimates came out as expected. I can not remember a more uneventful report with so much data being released. It is clear that the market is waiting on a US/China trade deal resolution. Going forward we see the markets are range bound and we will trade them accordingly starting Monday. Make sure you take a listen to Turner's Take Podcast for a deeper dive into the report!

Duration:00:15:23

Turner’s Take Podcast: February 2019 WASDE Report Preview

2/7/2019
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The February WASDE is tomorrow and it is a combination of the January and February reports. We will see Quarterly and Annual Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings. This has the potential to be a volatile report for the grain and oilseed markets. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:13:53

Turner’s Take Podcast: US China Trade Deal Talks Resume – January 30, 2019

1/30/2019
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The US government is back open, we will have a WASDE report on Feb 8, and the US/China trade talks are back on. South American weather is stabilizing, US new crop acreage estimates are coming in, and the USDA will start announcing export sales data starting tomorrow. A lot is going on and you need to stay informed. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast!

Duration:00:28:46