Triumph or Trumped? (Ep 26)
Tomorrow marks one year since President Donald Trump took the oath of office. So, how’s the president doing? Despite a year marked by a job approval rating hovering in the thirties and a majority of Americans rating Trump’s presidency as a “failure,” there are some bright spots for the president. What are they, and what impact could President Trump’s job approval rating have on the 2018 midterm elections? The Poll Hub team digs into the results of the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist...
Oprah for President? (Ep 25)
Oprah Winfrey’s speech at the Golden Globes sparked renewed enthusiasm about a potential presidential candidacy by the journalist, talk show host, and actress. This week, Poll Hub takes an in-depth look at what the polls show about a possible Oprah run against President Donald Trump in 2020. They also dig into how the concept of an “outsider” candidate has evolved in politics. And, it has been fifty years since the Supreme Court legalized interracial marriage in the case, Loving vs....
The Pollsters Strike Back (Ep 24)
In this episode of Poll Hub, the brain trust of The Marist Poll shares its poll watcher’s checklist for the 2018 midterm elections for United States Congress. What can pollsters and media pundits do to prevent the public from being pointed in the wrong direction? Stay tuned. And, according to the Pew Research Center, more and more people are getting their news from social media. The Poll Hub team picks up the topics of what role President Donald Trump plays in this trend, how social...
It’s the Economy, Stupid. Or, Is It? (Ep 23)
Using a compilation of polls from 2017, a recent Washington Post article asserts that, historically, Americans’ outlook about the direction of the country is impacted by whether or not the economy is doing well. And if it is, that credit tends to go to the President of the United States. But, if 2017 is the barometer, that correlation no longer holds true. In this episode of Poll Hub, the crew picks up on the thesis of the article, analyzes the polls discussed, and weighs in on why...
Tax Reform, Donald Trump, & 2018 (Ep 22)
With the passage of the tax reform bill, the Republicans in Congress hope to start off the New Year with a sense that the GOP-controlled Congress can have legislative success. But, with so many questions about tax reform left unanswered, is this really a win for Republicans? As the Poll Hub team discusses, the danger for the Republicans is how tax reform unfolds in 2018 and whether the GOP can maintain its credibility given the expected impact of the legislation on the deficit. Will the...
Alabama Shakes! Amy Walter Discusses How One Senate Race Could Shape 2018 (Ep 21)
The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and methodology, others…not so much. And then there are the poll averages. The widely reported Real Clear Politics’ last poll average prior to Election Day had Republican Roy Moore up by 2.2% over Democrat Doug Jones. The final results will likely have Jones winning by...
The Future of Public Opinion Polls (Ep 20)
With trust in the U.S. electoral system waning and indications of Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election looming, could public opinion polls assume a new role in American democracy? In the 1930’s George Gallup envisioned the majority viewpoint as having a place in the dialogue of democracy. Eight decades later, polls are judged by their accuracy in predicting the elections. But, what if interference occurs in the electoral process? Could public opinion polls be used, as...
The Realignment of America’s Political Parties (Ep 19)
In a candid and enlightening interview with Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and Atlantic Media's editorial director for strategic partnerships, Brownstein expounds upon the composition of the two main political parties in the United States and how the flux of the Democratic and Republican parties helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Brownstein, who was among the first to identify the significance of white, non-educated voters in recent electoral cycles, explains...
The Alabama Senate Race (Ep 18)
Allegations of sexual misconduct against the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore, have rocked the special election in the state. In this reddest of red states, the polls are inconsistent, and many lack the scientific rigor that instills confidence in the polls. Can the polls be believed? How volatile is the contest, and how difficult is it to identify likely voters given the national media attention surrounding this race? Poll Hub weighs in. And according to new...
What’s in an Approval Rating? (Ep 17)
President Donald Trump has certainly been in the thick of things during his first 10 months in office, but his job approval rating has changed little since he took the Oath of Office. As this episode of Poll Hub explains, President Trump maintains the support of his base and focuses on issues that interest his core group of supporters. But, a majority of Americans consider the president’s policies to mostly favor the wealthy. As the president’s policy initiatives move forward, could...
Election Wrap Up (Ep 16)
The pre-election polls in Virginia were wildly inconsistent. The disparate methodologies, specifically how samples were selected, muddied the narrative of the gubernatorial contest. As the Poll Hub team explains, the traditional method of conducting live interviews using a Random Digit Dial sampling method proved the most accurate in predicting this year's governor's race in Virginia. Which polling group was the most accurate, and what are the big takeaways for the industry? Poll Hub...
It’s All in the Wording (Ep 15)
In this episode of Poll Hub, the team does something they have never done before – calling out poor question wording. At issue is a question included in the October Harvard-Harris Poll which asks: Some people say that the Iran nuclear deal is not perfect and the Iranians are building up their nuclear capability secretly, but we should not rock the boat now and just let it all slide along. Others say if Iranians are not compliant we have to call them out on it and push to renegotiate the...
Covert Russian Ops on Social Media (Ep 14)
With allegations that operatives based out of Russia purchased Facebook advertisements to interfere in the 2016 presidential election and an investigation underway by the United States Congress to assess the extent of the Russians’ interference, Facebook may have played an unexpected role in the electoral process of the United States. How did this social media platform evolve into an advertising platform, and how did it become a political tool? As the “Poll Hub” team discusses,...
Sexual Harassment in the Workplace (Ep 13)
Though the Harvey Weinstein scandal has stolen the spotlight, sexual harassment in the workplace is not a new issue in American society. But, it is a persistent one. According to new Exclusive Third Rail with OZY-Marist Poll findings, 87% of Americans believe that workplace sexual harassment is a problem. Included are 42% of Americans who think it is a big problem. As the Poll Hub team discusses, that proportion has increased by more than two to one over the past thirty years.
What’s Up with the Polls in Virginia? (Ep 12)
With few major statewide elections on the ballot this year, the Virginia governor’s race is front and center, but there is little agreement among the polls about the contest. In this edition of Poll Hub, the team digs deep into the polls’ methodologies and explains the “special sauce” behind each poll. Understand how the widespread experimentation in polling is complicating survey research today and why it is critical to examine the samples and weighting factors used by public opinion...
The Opioid Crisis in America (Ep 11)
The opioid epidemic in the United States is no secret to most Americans. According to a sweeping survey by the PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, addiction to prescription opioid painkillers such as oxycodone, is a problem that affects 54% of Americans. In fact, about one in four Americans say someone in their own family suffers from this addiction. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team examines how this crisis compares with the crack epidemic in the late 1980's, whether the United States is...
Race in America (Ep 10)
Stories of taking a knee and other national anthem protests by NFL players to draw attention to racial inequality in the United States have saturated news headlines. But, what is the status of race relations in the nation today? This episode of Poll Hub addresses that very question with special attention given to President Donald Trump’s impact on race relations in the United States. Mr. Trump’s first nine months in office have been consumed with the topic of race, and according to...
Risky Business? President Trump Deals with the Democrats (Ep 9)
On this episode of Poll Hub, what do Donald Trump’s supporters think of the president’s talks with the Democrats on the issue of immigration? According to a new national Marist Poll, Donald Trump’s job approval rating is up to 39% from 35%, among Americans, and it is President Trump’s base that accounts for the improvement. Why hasn’t the president’s core abandoned him in light of his negotiations with congressional Democrats? Are there other factors influencing the president’s improved...
Is Truth Overrated? Is Lying the New American Way? (Ep 8)
In this episode of Poll Hub, truth. Based on results from the Exclusive Third Rail with OZY-Marist Poll, the Poll Hub team discusses whether or not honesty is alive and well in American society. Together with political journalist and tech entrepreneur Jay DeDapper, Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, and Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho, Director of The Marist Poll, address the prevalence of lying in everyday life, even at the highest level of...
Come Together (Ep 7)
In this episode of Poll Hub, the debate over DACA. According to a new Marist Poll, a majority of Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump’s move to end DACA, similar to the findings of other recent surveys. What does it mean when the polls converge? Can the average poll consumer trust the results? Does question wording matter? The Poll Hub team takes a deep dive into the issue. Then, Poll Hub gets wonky. Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public...