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The Dismal Science

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Episodes

17 - Retail of woe

10/16/2017
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Stephen and Ivan talk about the 'terrible' August retail sales and the better than expected FY17 budget position.

Duration: 00:23:25


16 - Change in the change

10/16/2017
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In this catch-up episode recorded in September, Stephen and Ivan talk about June quarter GDP and the August jobs report. Then AICD policy adviser Matt McGirr comes in to explain the newly passed safe harbour reforms.

Duration: 00:30:58


15 - I dream of Gini

9/8/2017
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Stephen and Ivan talk inequality.

Duration: 00:25:57


Dollar dazzler

8/12/2017
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Stephen and Ivan discuss the recent spike in the Australian dollar, what it means for the RBA's growth forecasts and whether you should be buying foreign currency for that overseas holiday now.

Duration: 00:24:29


13 - Labour market Lowedown

7/27/2017
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Stephen and Ivan do a close reading of RBA governor Philip Lowe's latest speech on the labour market.

Duration: 00:23:35


12 - Take a minute

7/26/2017
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Stephen and Ivan take look at why the minutes from the RBA board's July meeting moved markets, as well as the June jobs numbers.

Duration: 00:23:07


11 - In the realm of the census

7/4/2017
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For this comeback episode, we catch up on the latest economic data, Ivan asks for a pay rise and we dive into the census.

Duration: 00:24:26


10 - BONUS EPISODE: Jeff Gramm talks shareholder activism

7/3/2017
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In this bonus episode of The Dismal Science, Ivan interviews Jeff Gramm, hedge fund manager and author of Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism. The book, which was on the AICD's summer reading list, traces the history of shareholder activism through eight famous shareholder letters and touches on many themes relevant to directors, including the relationship between board and management, director independence, the role of proxy advisers and the perils of...

Duration: 00:53:20


9 - Taxes, not axes

5/14/2017
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It's our bumper Budget episode: axes are out, taxes are in. RIP 2014.

Duration: 00:27:48


8 - Of budgets and birthdays

5/5/2017
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It’s Stephen’s birthday and it’s the budget! What a time to be the AICD Chief Economist. Discussed in this episode: [1:01] May RBA decision [1:14] Copy-and-paste March decision [1:40] April RBA decision [1:45] April RBA minutes [2:53] AICD Director Sentiment Index [3:35] 2H16 Director Sentiment Index [5:31] NAB March Business Survey [6:03] Consumer confidence still subdued [6:32] Treasurer’s good/bad debt speech [6:37] Badgerys Creek airport [6:41] Inland rail [6:52]...

Duration: 00:25:48


7 - On target

4/30/2017
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This week Stephen and Ivan take credit for the Treasurer getting religion on debt and discuss inflation coming back within the Reserve Bank’s target range. Discussed in this episode: [0:42] Treasurer’s good/bad debt speech [1:00] Stephen on infrastructure debt [2:16] Morrison’s 2016 position [3:43] Net operating vs net cash balance [3:55] Jim Chalmers' Better Budgeting [5:23] Operational vs capital budgets [6:13] Stephen on 1Q17 CPI data [6:24] RBA’s inflation target [9:12] RBA...

Duration: 00:25:31


6 - Talk infra to me

4/22/2017
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This week Stephen and Ivan talk about making infrastructure sexy again, as well as the latest labour market data and the ongoing jobs/housing dilemma of the RBA. Discussed in this episode: [0:59] February jobs disaster [1:11] Stephen on the March jobs numbers [1:48] Jobs report sceptics [2:35] 2014 ABS error [3:42] April RBA minutes [5:42] ANZ's job ads data [5:54] NAB business survey [7:03] Polling is getting harder [9:08] Blueprint for Growth [11:30] Snowy Mountains...

Duration: 00:25:43


5 - The Blueprint

4/8/2017
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This week Stephen and Ivan talk about the regulator crackdown on interest-only loans and the AICD's Blueprint for Growth, which outlines our national reform agenda. Discussed in this episode: [0:46] APRA interest-only loan crackdown [0:57] RBA Governor's property warning [1:14] Bank executive comments [1:33] APRA’s original 2014 restrictions [3:44] RBA’s April interest rate decision [4:05] Council of Financial Regulators [4:41] Glenn Stevens on ‘crazy’ house prices [5:17] RBA...

Duration: 00:24:41


4 - Safe harbour

3/31/2017
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On this episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan talk Brexit and welcome their first guest, AICD Senior Policy Adviser Lysarne Pelling, who came in to discuss proposed safe harbour laws that could save companies from painful insolvencies. Discussed in this episode: [0:59] UK triggers article 50 [1:15] Stephen's reaction the day of the Brexit vote [1:35] Maastricht Treaty [2:09] >50% of UK trade is with the EU [2:24] Gloomy forecasts for UK economy [3:58] Requirement EU 27...

Duration: 00:22:06


3 - Is it a bubble?

3/23/2017
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In this special episode of The Dismal Science, Stephen and Ivan discuss the housing market. Is it a bubble? Should regulators be concerned? And what can we do to make housing more affordable? Discussed in this episode: [0:48] Avocado toast [0:57] Housing affordability in the budget [4:49] Australian household debt [6:29] APRA concerns (paragraph 5) [6:55] RBA's subtle shift on housing [9:28] NINJA loans [11:20] "Get a good job that pays good money." [15:19] Superannuation housing...

Duration: 00:21:51


2 - Jobs disaster

3/17/2017
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In the second episode of the AICD’s new weekly economics podcast, Stephen and Ivan discuss the ‘disaster’ that was the February jobs numbers, Western Australia’s economy post mining boom and the AICD’s number of the week.

Duration: 00:19:29


1 - RBA's ctrl+c

3/10/2017
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In the first episode of the AICD’s new weekly economics podcast, Stephen and Ivan discuss the Reserve Bank’s copy-and-paste interest rate decision, society’s anxieties about the robot revolution and the AICD’s number of the week.

Duration: 00:24:13