Market Watch with Tom Waitt
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ECONOMY SHANGHAIED
October_10th_2012.mp3 Economy Shanghaied Global economic activity is the key to shift pessimistic forecasts to a more optimistic outlook. Shanghai Composite Index (Click For Larger Picture) The European crisis has toned down but is a long way from producing impressive economic results for some time. The U.S. economy is stuck in a political shoot out that will drag out to the last second of the Presidential election and whoever wins is still likely to have little improvement for the balance...
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DEBATABLE OUTCOME
October_3rd_2012.mp3 Debatable Outcome U.S. Presidential debates begin tonight, television news reporters have pulled out all the same old supposed zingers from past U.S. presidential debates to warm up the audience for the imminent round of face-offs and gaffes. General Election:Romney vs. Obama (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites. The diverse polar split in the U.S....
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EMOTIONS
September_26th_2012.mp3 Emotions Despite recent strength in equities the "Mood" has been negative and most funds have extremely high cash reserves. MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotion, which has caused extreme levels both up and down. Usually FEAR GREED drives the market but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Pundits suggest we have turned generations of investors away with lack of...
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HOME SWEET HOME
September_19th_2012.mp3 HomeSweet Home A root cause of the economic upheaval was the housing market. Today both new housing starts and existing home sales were released for August with impressive results. HousingStarts (Click For Larger Picture) Home sales have recovered after being a root cause of economic collapse. Existing home sales rose strongly for a second straight month, up 7.8 percent in August to an annual unit rate of 4.82 million. This is the largest monthly percentage gain since...
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CHINA ENTERS THE 21ST CENTURY
September_12th_2012.mp3 China Enters the 21stCentury Improvement in European and North American equity markets in the last few weeks is encouraging. The naysayers have now shifted their pessimism toward China. Total Electricity Consumption (Click For Larger Picture) Industrial Production (Click For Larger Picture) Despite positive news in Europe and better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States which rose 1.7% in the second quarter of 2012 backing up a series of...
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TOO CLOSE TO CALL
September_5th_2012.mp3 Too Close to Call Confidence? It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of feuding politicians. But facts are building for an upward turn in Global Equities despite the disarray reported by the media. Romney VS.Obama (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting differences between Republicans and Democrats often at polar opposites. The diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena...
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DOLLARS AND SENSE
August_31st_2012.mp3 Dollars and Sense Foreign exchange rates (FOREX) can make or break investment returns. CanadianDollar - US Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) As Canadians we often value and compare products in Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars. In the last 5 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 in November 2007 and as low as .7656 in March 2009. To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post...
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A GOOD THING
August_24th_2012.mp3 A Good Thing Commodity prices have been steadily rising over the last two months. Is this a good thing, or bad? CRBIndex (Click For Larger Picture) Rising commodity prices have the media and market pundits warning of soaring inflation. Many analysts warn that the current easy money policy by global central banks will devalue currency and push commodities including food stock to levels unaffordable by many already unemployed. However bleak things seem, there is often...
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A POSITIVE NEGATIVE
August_8th_2012.mp3 A PositiveNegative Market sentiment is at bearish extremes. Media reports continue to shock investors with re-takes of old news. European woes are of great concern but the markets seem to have discounted with recent strength in equities. Market Sentiment (Click For Larger Picture) Investor sentiment indicators are at near panic levels. Despite this the SP 500 index closed above 1400 yesterday and is set to test this years high of 1422.38. It has been four years since we...
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OIL SPARK
July_18th_2012.mp3 Oil Spark In the last 20 days crude oil has jumped 16% and could signify an economic turn while Global economic forecasts are in disarray. Crude Oil (Click For Larger Picture) Crude oil is volatile in the last 4 months; from highs of $110.55 in March of this year to the lows of $77.28 last month, a $33.27 decline or 30%. The prior 5 month period saw crude oil jump from $74.95 in October 2011 to $110.55 a $35.60 rise or 36%. So what we have proved is crude oil is...
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HIGH ROAD, LOW ROAD
July_11th_2012(1).mp3 High Road, LowRoad The SP 500 stock index has doubled from the lows set in 2009. Fear and bearish forecasts still surrounded equity markets. We are currently within 2% of 2011 highs high and 5.6% off our 2012 high. SP500 Index (Click For Larger Picture) European woes and Global debt concerns, continue to plaque equity markets. News media and many market pundits remain negative. Pessimism is rampant, the fiscal cliff, the U.S. debt ceiling, Chinese accounting, Russian...
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SHIFTING EMOTIONS
July_4th_2012.mp3 Shifting Emotions Pessimism was at a peak before Friday's jump in stock prices. Most funds have the lowest equity component in 15 years. Is market emotion turning positive? MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Despite media focus on the European Union and rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development along with Syrian suppression of another Arab spring. A shift in Market Emotion is digging out from near panic and despondency. Markets have always moved on...
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NATURAL GAS
June_27th_2012.mp3 Natural Gas In the last 2 months despite media reports of a bankrupt Greece and the suggested complete melt down of the euro zone along with rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development and Syrian suppression of another Arab spring, something interesting happened. Natural Gas (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. Many...
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BOTTOM IN RATES
June_20th_2012.mp3 Bottom In Rates Interest Rates on 10 year U.S. T-Notes have likely seen the lows hitting 1.44% on June 1st all rates could start to rise including mortgage rates. U.S. 10-year T-Note (Click For Larger Picture) Ten year U.S. treasuries have been as high as 2.4% in March 2012 and as low as 1.44% this month. These rates could rise to 2% shortly and as high as 4.3% next year. It is hard to believe at this level but normal 10 year interest rates historically are 7%. If rates...
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CURRENCY VALUATION
June_13th_2012.mp3 Currency Valuation Currency levels matter, as Canadians we often value and compare products in Canadian dollars and U.S. dollars. CADUSD (Click For Larger Picture) In the last 5 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 in November 2007 and as low as .7656 in March 2009. To realize the absolute value of currency exchange rates consider this; a $25,000 U.S. car; the post war low on the Canadian dollar was .6179 in 2002 and reached a...
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GAINING SUPPORT
June_6th_2012.mp3 GainingSupport A month ago U.S. stocks were at a 3 year high, turn on a news report yesterday and media reports are disusing a crash. SP 500 Index (Click For Larger Picture) Three years ago March 6th 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6,469 a month ago we hit 13,338.66 more than double. The advance had corrections along the way 14.6% in the spring of 2010, and 19.2% in the summer of 2011. As discussed in the March 7th radio show a consolidation correction was...
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GLOBAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
May_9th_2012.mp3 Global Unemployment Rates Europessimism has once again seized Global markets. Austerity measures causing even higher unemployment in southern European nations. Unemployment rates adjusted to U.S. concepts, 20 countires, seasonally adjusted, October 2010 - March 2012 (Click For Larger Picture) Elections in Greece and France have re-focused concerns on the forced contagion of austerity measures. Fear of inflation has lessened with gold falling below $1600. The economy and...
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CHINA GROWTH
May_2nd_2012.mp3 China Growth Concerns over a slowdown in Chinese economic growth are misplaced. The growth is amazing and is likely to prevent a Global recession. ChinaGDP (Click For Larger Picture) Chinese GDP is currently $7.3 Trillion while the U.S. GDP level is $15.1 Trillion. Chinese GDP growth is about 8% currently the U.S. is roughly 2%. The real eye opener comes when one considers levels 5 years ago Chinese GDP was $3.28 Trillion and U.S. GDP $13.81 trillion. Chinese GDP has more...
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GLOBAL GDP FORECAST
April_25th_2012.mp3 Global GDPForecast Global Growth is underway everywhere but the Eurozone, which has been hammered by austerity measures. Average Annual Growth Rate GDPForecast (Click For Larger Picture) Average annual growth rate forecasts are impressive on a Global basis. Eurozone countries are the exception and daily media reports encourage pessimistic attitudes focusing on the woes of Europe. Note the top two highest growth rates; over 8% in China and over 7% in India. China has...
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RECORD EARNINGS
April_18th_2012.mp3 RecordEarnings U.S. equities are strong while Canadian markets can not surpass last year's highs. It is time to diversify at least half your positions south of the border. SP500 Earnings (Click For Larger Picture) Despite European woes and political infighting there are pockets of strength in U.S. markets. Indeed earnings of SP 500 stocks are at an all time record high. Global positioning is changing right before our eyes, the once mighty Eurozone which was a contender...
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TAXING MARKETS
April_11th_2012.mp3 Taxing Markets Nothing is certain but Death Taxes! Once again it's tax time, it could be worse, individual tax rates are 48 % higher in Spain, 40% higher in France. Individual Tax Rates 2008-2012 (Click For Larger Picture) Tax obligations and the financial health of Euro-zone countries continue to weigh on Global Markets despite improving economic news. So far this year U.S. equities have risen 8.8% and pulled back half that gain over the last five days. The Dow Jones...
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ADP EMPLOYMENT REPORT
April_4th_2012.mp3 ADPEmployment Report Global money flows are seeking a safe harbor moving into the U.S. Dollar displacing Gold as a store of value. ADPEmployment Report (Click For Larger Picture) The U.S Economy is seen as the safer economy in the World with low interest rates an accommodating Central Bank and improving employment levels. Global participants are buying dollars leaving other currencies including gold now off over $300 from recent highs. Global markets are in disarray,...
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CREDIT CRUNCH
March_28th_2012.mp3 CreditCrunch O.K. the markets are acting well U.S. stocks are up over 12% so far in 2012; Canadian equities are up 5.4%. The years of uncertainty and fear and constant media reports of negative breaking news are fading. But what the heck happened? U.S. Total Credit MarketDebt Sector Share Breakdown (Click For Larger Picture) Stocks are in recovery mode and despite low volume and near non-existent retail demand U.S. equities are on course to challenge all time highs. But...
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TIMES A CHANGIN
March_21st_2012.mp3 Times a Changin Interest Rates are starting to rise; Bonds which performed well in 2011 have lost principal value over the last 6 months. 10 Year T-Note (Click For Larger Picture) Ten year U.S. treasuries performed well in 2011 rising 15% in principal value despite falling coupon returns of less than 2%. Recent moves have taken coupon returns to 2.4% in the last 6 months eroding 5% of bond holders principal. Normal 10 year interest rates historically are 7%; if rates...
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IMPROVING DATA
March_14th_2012.mp3 ImprovingData Improving economic indicators increase confidence reversing negative media reports. Jobless claims fall to four year lows. U.S. Jobless Claims (Click For Larger Picture) Over the last decade uncertainty and fear has ruled, media reports have caused the markets to climb a wall of worry. Recent economic data is turning positive; The U.S. unemployment rate is seen holding at a three-year low of 8.3% in February. U.S. weekly jobless claims hitting a four year...
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CONSOLIDATION
March_7th_2012.mp3 Consolidation Three years after hitting a low The Dow Jones Industrial Index has doubled in value. Yesterday Global equities fell. Is it time to panic? Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Three years ago March 6th 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6,469 a week ago we hit 13,055.75 more than double. The advance had corrections along the way 14.6% in the spring of 2010, and 19.2% in the summer of 2011. So far in 2012 stocks advanced 6.9% and...
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INCREASED CONFIDENCE
February_28th_2012.mp3 Increased Confidence Consumer confidence soared in February to 70.8% from 61.5% the highest level in a year. Nightly news casts are less pessimistic. Equities south of the border have surpassed 2011 highs. UnitedStates Consumer Confidence (Click For Larger Picture) Confidence is key, U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 70.8% in February up sharply from levels of low 40's a few months ago. There are many ways to analyze the market; Technical analysis studying various...
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CHALLENGING THE HIGHS
February_22nd_2012.mp3 Challenging the Highs Last year the SP 500 stock index doubled from the lows set in 2009. Fear and bearish forecasts still surrounded equity markets pushing the SP 500 index down 22% late in 2011. We are now back to the 2011 high and set to challenge all time highs. SP500 Index (Click For Larger Picture) After doubling the SP 500 index in 2011 from lows in 2009, the market fell 22% on European woes and Global debt concerns. News media and many market pundits remained...
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OUT OF THE FRYING PAN, INTO THE FIRE
February_15th_2012.mp3 Out of the Frying Pan,Into the Fire Interest Rates are historically low but have been lower. Many investors could jump out the frying pan and into the fire. 30 Year US T-Bond Yield (Click For Larger Picture) In early 2009 after losing 57% in stocks many investors ran into 30 year U.S treasuries only to lose 25% in late 2009. Out of the frying pan and into the fire. Historically through thousands of years it has been found the normal rate of interest is 7%. If we move...
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EMOTIONAL OUTBURST
February_8th_2012.mp3 Emotional Outburst Market emotion is turning positive. Despite media reports of a bankrupt Greece and rising tensions over Iranian nuclear development and Syrian suppression of another Arab spring. MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency, depression, disgust and doubt. It appears we are gaining confidence, with confidence you can reach...
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CLEAR AND SUNNY
February_1st_2012.mp3 Clear and Sunny Here comes the sun, the ice is slowly melting, it seems like years since it's been clear, the Beatles forecasted the current thaw of pessimism that has enveloped media and market pundits alike. Growth and profits are occurring south of our border. U.S.GDPGrowth Rate (Click For Larger Picture) The panic that set in on the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown caused stocks to crash down and left investors losing a decade of performance. Fears elevated to panic...
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CONFIDENCE RISING
January_25th_2012.mp3 Confidence Rising Uncertainty is waning, confidence is increasing and corporate earnings are up. Nightly news casts are less pessimistic. Consumer Confidence (Click For Larger Picture) Money Multiplier (Click For Larger Picture) Confidence is key, U.S. consumer confidence jumped to 64.5 last month up sharply from levels of low 40's a few months ago. Investors are starting to believe markets will achieve higher levels through increased economic activity. Money supply is...
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INFLATION ? / DEFLATION ?
January_18th_2012.mp3 Inflation ? / Deflation ? Inflation or Deflation; too many dollars chasing too few goods or too many goods with too few dollars. Consumer Price Index (Click For Larger Picture) Tomorrow the Consumer Price Index will be released for 2011. For those that remember the 80's with the Consumer Prices rising 14%, current levels are likely to show a mild 3.2% indeed there is a near-term risk of flipping to deflation with European concerns and the World Bank reducing its...
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RECORD EARNINGS
January_11th_2012.mp3 RecordEarnings Where is all the bad news media pundits were suggesting? It appears the economy is stronger than forecast. SP 500 Earnings (Click For Larger Picture) Despite European woes and political infighting there are pockets of strength in North American markets. Indeed we are growing GDP to record levels albeit at a mild pace at this point in time. What is most encouraging and has not been reported widely is the fact that earnings by SP 500 stocks is at an all...
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2011 HINDSIGHT
January_4th_2012.mp3 2011 Hindsight Happy New Year! Year end results are in the only equity market to post positive number was the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 5.5%. What does 2012 have in store? 2011 Global MarketResults (Click For Larger Picture) India's Sensex Index is the weakest in 2011 off 24.64%. The strongest global equity player is the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average with an advance of 5.53%. Canadian equities as measured by the SP/TSX Composite Index fell 11.07% in 2011....
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2012 - UPBEAT
December_28th_2012.mp3 2012 - Upbeat What will 2012 have in store for the markets? Has confidence returned? Despite all the negatives we are headed to a higher close in 2011 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Dow JonesIndustrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Despite a cascading wall of worry in 2011, with hurricanes, tornados, and floods, the downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status , along with the political fallout of the U.S. debt ceiling which adds to recent distraught concerns...
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GLOBAL MARKET RESULTS
December_21st_2011.mp3 Global Market Results As we approach the end of 2011 annual performance is in focus. It is difficult enough to track our own equity markets day to day but Global markets and events are important in this millisecond decision making World. Global MarketResults (Click For Larger Picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic and international markets instantaneously. Global equity markets have mixed returns shifting rapidly day to day minute to minute. At...
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KING DOLLAR
December_14th_2011.mp3 King Dollar The U.S Dollar is the strongest currency in the World as global markets buy dollars leaving other currencies including gold now off $328 from recent highs. U.S. Dollar Index (Click For Larger Picture) The tide has changed the U.S. dollar is up over 10% from lows set this year. With all the commotion in the world the U.S. is the safe harbor as the Euro breaks down falling 13% so far in 2011.Global markets are in disarray, uncertainty and fear rules with...
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OPPORTUNITIES ABOUND
December_7th_2011.mp3 Opportunities Abound Global economic forecasts are in disarray, 500 point moves on U.S. equity markets have become common place, yet we are up on the year 2011 with the Dow Jones average of 12,112.98 up 535.47 points from last years close of 11,577.51 a 4.6% advance. Eurozone Lack of leadership is a World wide phenomenon from Eurozone nations to the United States with political turmoil expected over the next year while 2012 elections stagnate any coordinated solution....
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GLOBAL SHIFTING TIDES
November_30th_2011.mp3 Global Shifting Tides It is difficult enough to track our own finances day to day but Global markets and events are incredibly important in this millisecond decision making World. World GDP (Click For Larger Picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic markets instantaneously. Global markets shift rapidly day to day minute to minute but most dramatically year over year. Over the last 4 years we have seen Japan slip from a top 3 global economic force...
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POSITIVE GDP GROWTH
November_23rd_2011.mp3 Positive GDPGrowth U.S. markets have little to be thankful for going into U.S. Thanksgiving weekend. Global concerns on sovereign debt ratios have ballooned into crisis proportions with the help of international media attention. U.S. GDPGrowth Rate (Click For Larger Picture) Greed and fear rule when investing. The 1929 crash caused fears to elevate to panic levels bring on the great depression. Greed grew in the "nifty 50's as stocks rose 400% in a decade. In the early...
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TRACTION, ON A SLIPPERY SLOPE
November_16th_2011.mp3 Traction - On a Slippery Slope Crude oil is above $100 a barrel up 36% in 5 weeks while Global economic forecasts are in disarray. Crude Oil (Click For Larger Picture) Fiddling while Rome burns! European economies are in disarray causing concern globally and dire forecasts of the future. But why would crude oil rise if we are heading into a World wide slowdown? Perhaps we are seeing a paradigm shift that few foresee. After pumping liquidity into international economies...
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CITI LIMITS
November_9th_2011.mp3 Citi Limits It goes up goes up! It goes down goes down. Time to ground your thoughts with risk/reward tools. Citigroup Inc (Click For Larger Picture) Media and market participants often get caught up in the mood of the moment and excite emotions to a fever pitch. Markets feed on these emotions and take things to incredible levels, both up and down. Media sensationalizes the movement by finding reinforcing reasons for even more unbelievable levels. Infomercials bolster...
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SHIFTING EMOTIONS
November_2nd_2011.mp3 Shifting Emotions Emotions have run rampant, with daily media reports of European woes, political infighting and a lack of job creation giving rise to Occupation Wall Street and steadily rising debt concerns. Are there signs of improvement? Market Emotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Markets have always moved on emotions, usually FEAR GREED, but over the last 3 years it has been desperation, panic, despondency,...
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WORLD EQUITY PERFORMANCE - 2011
October_26th_2011.mp3 World Equity Performance - 2011 Global Markets have had a rough year, with major shifts occurring on a daily basis in every investment vehicle from Gold to Government Bonds to Stocks all around the World. World Indexes Performance - 2011 (Click For Larger Picture) Markets around the world are linked together by instantaneous media reports like they have never been before. They started 2011 in lock step moving up 7% in the first 2 months but by March started a correction...
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TURNING POINT: RATES ON THE RISE
October_19th_2011.mp3 Turning Point:Rates on the Rise While the media watches Greece burn and U.S. elections over a year away, stocks are bottoming out. 10 Year U.S. Government NoteYield (Click For Larger Picture) Despite Greek riots, "Occupy Wall Street" hurricanes, tornados, and floods, the downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status , along with the political fallout of the messy U.S. debt ceiling debate which adds to recent distraught worries of unemployment, European unity, Mid East...
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SHIPPING IN CONFIDENCE
October_12th_2011.mp3 Shipping in Confidence Confidence? It is hard to muster confidence in the economy when the fate of the World is in the hands of the Slovakian parliament. But facts are building for an upward turn in Global Equities despite the disarray reported by the media. BalticDry Shipping Index - Ten Year (Click For Larger Picture) Baltic Dry Shipping Index - Six Month (Click For Larger Picture) With 24 hour round the clock media reports highlighting European bailout woes for...
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COPPER TONE
October_5h_2011.mp3 Copper Tone Recession or Recovery; Euro-pessimism brings about the emerging convergence of Global markets with a never ending array of problems. Copper (Click For Larger Picture) Concerns of slow global growth permeate every newscast. What indicator should we watch to gage the economy of the future? Recessionary fears are affecting communities globally and many are wondering if the situation is getting worse or if there is some improvement underway. Many gage the U.S....
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FACT OR FICTION?
September_28th_2011.mp3 Fact or Fiction? Fact or Fiction. Is the glass half empty or half full? I will be back after these messages with a discussion. Durable Goods Orders (Click For Larger Picture) Media and market pundits have been finding every negative story to sensationalize events even if they have to go around the globe to find them. A cascading wall of worry lead by the distraught concerns of European unity, a bankrupt Greece along with unemployment, the housing crisis, mortgage...
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GROWTH?
September_21st_2011.mp3 Growth? Media reports on current popular themes of events and often carries views to extremes overstating the negatives and positives and fails to recognize when a change occurs until well after the fact. Indeed if it's up it's going up and if it's down it's going to fall further. A dangerous assumption when investing. U.S. GDP (Click For Larger Picture) Greed and fear rule when investing and current events are reported in a millisecond all over the world. When...
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INTERESTING INFLATION
September_14th_2011.mp3 Interesting Inflation Interest rates are low but inflation is rising. Inflation is described as too many dollars chasing too few goods; inversely Deflation is too many goods for too few dollars. Interest Rates andInflation (Click For Larger Picture) Which environment would you like to be in? If you have the goods people are rushing to buy like oil or gold or I-Pads your O.K. If on the other hand you are flush with real estate in Florida; not so good. Many analysts...
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BREAKING PARITY
September_7th_2011.mp3 Breaking Parity Hope you enjoyed a strong Canadian Dollar, we are about to break parity. Canadian Dollar - U.S.Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) In the last 3 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 and as low as .7656. Recent high of 1.0630 failed to test the 1.1038 record high and established a lower high downtread. A key uptrend has been broken leaving resistance at 1.0554. The chart shows the Canadian Dollar over the last 5...
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2011 NOT 1929
August_31st_2011.mp3 2011 Not 1929 The death of stocks has been greatly exaggerated. SP/TSXComposite Index (Click For Larger Picture) Despite hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. The downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status , along with the political fallout of the U.S. debt ceiling which adds to recent distraught worries of unemployment, European unity, a bankrupt Greece. Mid East unrest and revolution, Oil supplies uncertainty, housing crisis, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures, too big...
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PARABOLIC CORRECTION
August_24th_2011.mp3 ParabolicCorrection Remember when Oil Gas prices are the talk of the town, in the elevators, at the dinner table in the markets, the flavor of the month. It reached 147.27 a barrel it is now $85.64 42% lower. Gold recently traded $1,917.90 an ounce it is currently $1781.30 off 7% a 42% decline would be $1,112 not impossible. Crude Oil Light Sweet (Click For Larger Picture) Gold, 100 Troy Oz. COMEX (Click For Larger Picture) Investors often act like lemmings mythically...
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HOLD 'EM, FOLD 'EM, SOLD 'EM?
August_17th_2011.mp3 Hold 'em, Fold 'em, Sold 'em? You got to know when to hold `em, know when to fold `em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Buy and hold has not been a successful strategy but beats selling and running like hell when the masses panic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 18% over the last few weeks as investors panicked in a media hyped decline as the World came to an end. This was a time to hold em and buy...
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CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE
August_10th_2011.mp3 Crisis ofConfidence If you think you can you can; If you think you can't you're right. Global equity markets have lost their mo-jo. MarketEmotion Cycle (Click For Larger Picture) With confidence, you can reach truly amazing heights; without confidence, even the simplest accomplishments are beyond ones grasp. Global markets have lost confidence, the recent downgrade of U.S. debt off it's AAA status was the latest in a series of events to zap the bulls and open the...
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U.S. DOLLAR CONFIDENCE?
August_3rd_2011.mp3 U.S.DollarConfidence? Politics robbed equity performance with wrangling over the debt ceiling. Earnings of 75% of stocks was impressive but not to markets in disarray. U.S. Dollar Index (Click For Larger Picture) Global markets are in disarray, uncertainty and fear rules with global 24 hour a day media reports highlighting the diverse polar split in the U.S. political arena. The public is becoming very concerned over the financial situation in the United States. Worries...
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WALL OF WORRY - PART 14
July_27th_2011.mp3 Wall ofWorry - Part 14 Fear and bearish forecasts still surround equity markets despite the fact the Dow Jones industrials has doubled from the lows set in 2009, and is currently up 8.4% so far in 2011. U.S. Debt Ceiling (Click For Larger Picture) The latest wall of worry concern is the U.S. debt ceiling which adds to recent distraught worries of unemployment, European unity, Mid East unrest and revolution, Oil supplies, housing crisis, mortgage foreclosures, bank...
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INFLECTION POINT
July_20th_2011.mp3 Inflection Point It is quarterly earning time as results of the second quarter are declared. It is amazing how analysts downgrade a stock after it announces bad earnings and upgrade a stock after it declares great quarterly results? As results are released there are more important things to look for. KEY - KeyCorp (Click For Larger Picture) Most quarterly earnings come in as expected but a few surprises occur. In my 33 years of investing it always drives me crazy how...
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CONFIDENCE RETURNING
July_13th_2011.mp3 Confidence Returning Despite negative news media reports North American stocks are strong. U.S. equities have more than doubled since lows reached two years ago. Canadian stocks as measured by the SP/TSX Composite are up 92%. Retail Sales (Click For Larger Picture) Over the last decade uncertainty and fear has ruled, media pundits have caused the markets to climb a wall of worry. Despite record job losses, the housing meltdown, mortgage foreclosures, bank failures,...
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CANADIAN DOLLAR PEAK?
July_6th_2011.mp3 Canadian Dollar Peak? Has the Canadian Dollar peaked? Canadian Dollar - USDollar (Click For Larger Picture) In the last 3 years we have seen the Canadian against the U.S. dollar trade as high as 1.1038 and as low as .7656. Recent high of 1.0585 failed to test the 1.1038 record high. A key level is now last weeks high of 1.0435. Currently 1.0338 a test of last month's low of 1.0089 and the 200 day moving average of 1.0117 acts as support. Failure to hold would put the...
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FEARLESS VOLATILITY
June_29th_2011.mp3 FearlessVolatility Recent Global market concerns have focused on Greece with media reporting on riots in the streets that could be scenes of Vancouver losing the Stanley Cup. CBOEVolatility Index (Click For Larger Picture) Fear mongering with round the clock reporting of political rioting in Athens, Cairo, Tripoli, spreading through North Africa and weak European countries with austerity issues. Yet North American equity markets remain strong and profitable. The VIX is the...
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APPROACHING SUPPORT
June_22nd_2011.mp3 Approaching Support The SP 500 stock index has doubled from the lows set in 2009. Fear and bearish forecasts still surround equity markets despite its resilience. SP500 Index (Click For Larger Picture) After doubling the SP 500 index in value over the last two years while news media and many market pundits remained negative, the recent six week set-back which has eroded 8.2% off the index has them raising the bear flag. As we approach the end of the second quarter the...
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RISING DOLLAR
June_15th_2011.mp3 Rising Dollar Riots in Greece, Mid-East tensions, North Africa revolts, disaster in Japan, Global Government spending out of control, massive unemployment, rising food costs, markets are in disarray. U.S. Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) Several weeks of negative economic news along with Global concerns has brought U.S. equities measured by the SP 500 Index off 7.7% but still up 192% from the crash low in 2008. Uncertainty and fear rules with global 24 hour a day media...
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COPPER-TONE
June_8th_2011.mp3 Copper-tone The World is watching for signs of economic growth as stimulus packages have succeeded in doubling stock prices but have had little impact on unemployment levels. Copper, High GradeCOMEX (Click For Larger Picture) Economic recovery or double dip? Is more stimulus spending required? Concerns of slow global growth permeate every newscast. What indicator should we watch to gage the economy of the future? Recessionary fears are affecting communities globally and...
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UNEMPLOYMENT CONCERNS
June_1st_2011.mp3 UnemploymentConcerns On Friday the U.S. Unemployment rate will be released, market pundits and economists have become obsessed with jobless claims and payrolls which have been slow to improve and kept many cautious and negative on equity markets. Despite this stocks measured by SP 500 have doubled. Civilian Unemployment Rate (Click For Larger Picture) Nonfarm Payrolls (Click For Larger Picture) It has been over 2 years since the financial crisis hit panic levels. North...
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EMOTION AND COMMOTION
May_25th_2011.mp3 Emotion andCommotion Last week we focused on the shares of Barnes Noble which was out of favor with 73.7% of the share float shorted and was trading at $13.90 below it's book value of $14.48. Last Friday a takeover was announced today the stock is $19.33 up 39%. Value market emotion are key to success. Market Emotion Cycle (click for larger picture) Fear and Greed tend to rule at market tops and bottoms. In the movie "Wall Street" Gordon Gekko says Greed is Good as the...
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POTENTIAL SHORTLY
May_18th_2011.mp3 Potential Shortly Isn't it amazing how analysts downgrade a stock after it announces bad earnings and upgrade a stock after it declares great quarterly results? BKS- Barnes Noble, Inc. (Click For Larger Picture) It is quarterly earning time as results of the first quarter are declared. Most come in as expected but a few surprises occur. In my 33 years of investing it always drives me crazy how analysts' change buy recommendations of yesterday to sell recommendations...
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FOREX PARITY
May_11th_2011.mp3 Forex Parity Global markets operate 24/7; the most active is the currency market which affects the price of everyday purchases and investments. Canadian Dollar - USDollar (Click For Larger Picture) The FOREX Market (Foreign Exchange) FX, or currency market is a global, worldwide decentralized over-the-counter and computerized financial market for trading currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of...
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NOKIA TURNAROUND?
May_4th_2011.mp3 Nokia Turnaround? Where should you invest? Mutual Funds have been poor performers over the last 10 years. Gold and Oil stocks look toppy; interest rates of 3% are not enticing. It takes some original thinking and realizing that it is a market of stocks not a stock market. Nokia Corporation (Click For Larger Picture) Common sense thinking makes investing simpler. If a stock has doubled or tripled it makes sense to be cautious, at the same time if a stock has fallen to a third...
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DOVE OR HAWK?
April_27th_2011.mp3 Dove or Hawk? Today the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference, which is very rare; historically a statement is delivered but not a question and answer session. 30 Year Treasury Bond Yields (Click For Larger Picture) Many investors jumped out the frying pan and into the fire, in 2008 after losing 36% in stocks many investors ran into 30 year U.S treasuries which yielded only 2.83% in January 2009 and rose to 4.76% by June 2009 a loss of...
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OIL EUPHORIA
April_20th_2011.mp3 Oil Euphoria Oil Gas prices are the talk of the town, in the elevators, at the dinner table in the markets, the flavor of the month. Investors often act like lemmings, mythically following lock step till they fall off a cliff. Crude Oil Light Sweet (Click For Larger Picture) The recent euphoria in Oil Gas pump prices is a rerun of the past few years. In early 2007 a barrel of oil was $49.50 by mid 2008 it reached $147.27 a $97.77 advance, by early 2009 it had fallen to...
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CONFIDENCE?
April_13th_2011.mp3 Confidence? U.S. equities have doubled since lows reached two years ago. Canadian stocks as measured by the SP/TSX Composite are up 91%. Retail Sales (Click For Larger Picture) It has been two years since the financial crisis hit panic levels. North American equities have recovered the losses by doubling in value from the lows. However not all individuals or mutual funds have recovered their losses. Over the last decade uncertainty and fear has ruled, pundits have caused...
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RISK ADJUSTED INVESTING
April_6th_2011.mp3 Risk Adjusted Investing Investment styles and strategies make or break performance. What works and what does not may surprise many; the text books are wrong. CBOEVolatility Index (Click For Larger Picture) The most popular investment strategy the foundation of most Mutual Funds "Buy and Hold" has not worked as the market ended with little change over the last decade. Indexing delivered flat results in major global markets. Text book advice is to "Diversify" when investing,...
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RISING INFLATION?
March_30th_2011.mp3 Rising Inflation? Inflation is described as too many dollars chasing too few goods; inversely Deflation is too many goods for too few dollars. Soaring commodity prices have the media and market pundits warning of rising interest rates and soaring inflation. Interest Rates and Inflation (Click For Larger Picture) Which environment would you like to be in? If you have the goods people are rushing to buy like oil or gold or I-Pads your O.K. If on the other hand you are flush...
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U.S. DOLLAR; SAFE HARBOUR
March_23rd_2011.mp3 U.S. Dollar; SafeHarbour Global markets are in disarray, Mid-East tensions, North Africa revolts, disaster in Japan, rising food costs, government spending out of control, massive unemployment. U.S.DollarIndex (Click For Larger Picture) Uncertainty and fear rules with global 24 hour a day media reports highlighting the most recent crisis. The public is becoming very concerned over the financial situation in the United States. Worries soar that the U.S. economy is in a...
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S&P/TSX BREAKDOWN
March_16th_2011.mp3 SP/TSXBreakdown What went up came down, fast, as the Toronto Stock Exchange fell over 1,000 points, a drop of 7.6% in a week. Gold and Oil was expected to soar with global events blowing up and melting down. SP/TSXComposite Index (Click For Larger Picture) Many investors have been burnt in the recent market decline as many pundits suggested resource and commodity stocks would send Canadian stocks higher. With revolutions occurring in North Africa sending shock waves...
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YESTERDAY'S NEWS
March_9th_2011.mp3 Yesterday's News What goes up goes up? What goes down goes down? Time to ground your thoughts. Bank of AmericaCorporation (Click For Larger Picture) Gold, 100 Troy Oz. COMEX (Click For Larger Picture) Media and market participants often get caught up in the mood of the moment and excite emotions to a fever pitch. Markets feed on these emotions and take things to a euphoric level. Media sensationalizes the movement by finding reinforcing reasons for even higher levels....
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CONFIDENCE RETURNING
March_2nd_2011.mp3 Confidence Returning Mid East turmoil, gold at record highs, rising oil prices; media outlets feeding the frenzy with daily reports of further woes of rebellion and coming inflation. PrivateU.S. Payrolls (Click For Larger Picture) Recent news reports of spreading Mid East rebellions causing global chaos and uncertainty, instilling fears of food inflation along with minute by minute reports of Gold hitting record highs, news reports of soaring oil prices which are actually...
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TRADING VOLATILITY
February_23rd_2011.mp3 Trading Volatility Textbooks suggest a well diversified investment portfolio often linked to a stock index or a mutual fund. The trouble is most equity indexes and mutual funds are at the same level as 10 years ago, the lost decade for investment returns. Is it time to differentiate yourself when investing. VIX - VolatilityIndex (Click For Larger Picture) Many investors have lost money in the last ten years patiently waiting for their mutual funds and stocks to show a...
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POPULATION, FREEDOM AND PROSPERITY
February_16th_2011.mp3 Population, Freedom and Prosperity China, India and the rest of Asia (and now Africa) have moved into the modern era. Freedom and prosperity are in demand; the rest of the world wants the American dream. World Population byCountry (Click For Larger Picture) The wonderful living standards of the developed nations is transmitted globally in this the age of instant communications; cell phones, facebook, hand held computers, youtube, twitter, transcending language...
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INFLATION?
February_9th_2011.mp3 Inflation? Inflation is described as too many dollars chasing too few goods. Soaring commodity prices have the media and market pundits warning of rising inflation. Annual Inflation Rate (Click For Larger Picture) Many analysts warn that the current easy money policy by global central banks will devalue currency and push commodities including food stock to levels unaffordable by many already unemployed. Cotton prices have soared to levels not seen since the U.S. Civil...
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INCREASED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
February_2nd_2011.mp3 Increased Economic Activity Equities are rallying to levels last seen 2 years ago. Gold is off record highs even with unrest and political chaos in the Middle East. ISMManufacturing Index (Click For Larger Picture) Many investors that bought into a mutual fund or a hedge fund have not made a cent over the last 5 or 10 years, indeed with fees they find their holdings are at a loss. However from the lows reached at the crash low two years ago when the Dow Jones Industrial...
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STELLAR RETURN
January_26th_2011.mp3 Stellar Return We have all heard that the equity market returns have been disappointing with little appreciation in the last 10 years. Buy and hold as a strategy has frustrated investors and mutual fund managers. However major moves have occurred. Dow JonesIndustrial Average (Click For Larger Picture) Many investors that bought into a mutual fund or a hedge fund have not made a cent over the last 5 or 10 years, indeed with fees they find their holdings are at a loss....
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RETURN TO PARITY
January_21st_2011.mp3 Return to Parity The Canadian Dollar value measured against major currencies affects the price of everyday purchases and investments. Recent commodity activity and U.S. Dollar volatility globally have pushed the Canadian Dollar toward parity to the American Dollar once again. Canadian Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) In 2010 the Canadian Dollar traded as high as 1.0066 U.S. dollars in April and as low as .9215 U.S. dollars one month latter in May. To realize the...
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GLOBAL MARKET RETURNS 2010
January_5th_2011.mp3 Global MarketReturns 2010 Trillions of dollars trade in milliseconds all over the World. Global events affect financial markets instantaneously, "money never sleeps". Global MarketResults - 2010 (Click For Larger Picture) Global equity markets have mixed returns shifting rapidly day to day second to second. In 2010 the worst performing equity exchange was the Greek Athex composite exchange falling 35.6%. The best performing exchange for 2010 was Peru's Lima general...
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DOLLAR VALUE
December_29th_2010.mp3 Dollar Value What will 2011 have in store for the markets? Has confidence returned? Equities are rallying but Gold is near record highs. What indicator is relevant at the current juncture? U.S.Dollar (Click For Larger Picture) Uncertainty and fear has ruled over the last decade. Mutual funds and most stocks have lost money over the last 10 years. Interest rates have fallen to record lows. Money supply is at an all time high while the rate of turnover of currency has...
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SLIPPERY OIL
December_22nd_2010.mp3 SlipperyOil Crude Oil rose to its highest level in over two years this morning hitting $90.80 a barrel. Crude Oil (Click For Larger Picture) Crude oil posted its highest level since October 2008 trading $90.80 a barrel this morning. Crude is up 35% from 2010 lows set May 29th. In the last 3 years crude has traded as high as $147.50 a barrel in July 2008 and as low as $33.20 in January 2009. The midpoint of those extremes is $90.35. Calls for $100 plus oil are filling...
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2010 RETURNS
December_15th_2010.mp3 2010 Returns As we approach the end of 2010 annual performance is in focus. It is difficult enough to track our own equity markets day to day but Global Markets and events are important in this millisecond decision making World. Global MarketResults (Click For Larger Picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic and international markets instantaneously. Global equity markets have mixed returns shifting rapidly day to day minute to minute. At this...
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LUMBER BUILDING VALUE
December_8th_2010.mp3 Lumber Building Value Investors often act like lemmings, mythically following lock step till they fall off a cliff. Gold making record highs much like 1980 which ended at half their peak within two years. Dot Com stocks that disappeared after trading at incredible multiples, or equity indexes falling in half suddenly only to double once again. Lumber (Click For Larger Picture) There is always an explanation after the fact once a major move occurs. Recent euphoria in...
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TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE - UP, DOWN, UP
December_1st_2010.mp3 Toronto Stock Exchange - Up, Down,Up SP TSX CompositeIndex We have all heard that the equity market returns have been disappointing, with little appreciation in the last 10 years. Buy and hold as a strategy has frustrated investors and mutual fund managers, however major moves have occurred in between. Many investors have bought into a mutual fund or an equity index and have not made a cent over the last 10 years. Indeed, with fees they find their holdings are at a...
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WHAT GOES UP, COMES DOWN
November_17th_2010.mp3 What Goes Up, Comes Down So far in 2010, cotton prices have risen 90.5%, Silver 62.9%, Coffee 52%, Corn 36.1%, Wheat 30.0% and Gold 28.1%. Do we have inflation? Gold 100 Troy oz. (click for larger picture) Crude Oil Light Sweet (click for larger picture) In the last week, Gold fell $95.30 an ounce, 7.2%; Oil is off $7.45 a barrel, 8.4%. What has changed? The U.S. dollar has reversed direction and is getting stronger while European markets are re-visiting sovereign debt...
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IMPROVED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY?
November_10th_2010.mp3 ImprovedEconomic Activity? Has confidence returned? Equities are rallying, but Gold is at record highs. U.S. Dollar - Long TermChart (click for larger picture) U.S. Dollar - Short Term Chart (click for larger picture) Over the last decade, uncertainty and fear has ruled. Gold is at record highs, mutual funds and stocks have lost money over the last 10 years, interest rates are falling to record lows, and mortgage foreclosures with a near meltdown in financial markets ....
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U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT - #1 CONCERN
November_3rd_2010.mp3 U.S. Unemployment - #1 Concern Yesterday the political landscape changed in the United States and likely in the entire World. United States Unemployment Rate (click for larger picture) Republicans seized control of the U.S. House and narrowed the Senate's Democratic majority in elections shaped by voter anxiety over jobs and the economy. Republicans gained at least 60 House seats yesterday across the country, capitalizing on concerns about government spending...
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INFLATION / DEFLATION
October_27th_2010.mp3 Inflation / Deflation Cotton prices have soared to levels not seen since the U.S. Civil War. Gold has hit record highs; oil remains above $80 a barrel. Commodity prices are rising, forcing your grocery bill higher. Is inflation a problem? Annual Inflation Rate (click for larger picture) Inflation is described as too many dollars chasing too few goods; inversely Deflation is too many goods for too few dollars. Which environment would you like to be in? If you have the...
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MONEY AND TRUST
October_20th_2010.mp3 Money and Trust Uncertainty rules; Gold at record highs, mutual funds losing money, interest rates at record lows, stocks up one day down the next day, mortgage foreclosures hitting legal challenges, flash crashes keeping investors on edge. What is the key to future prosperity? MoneySupply (click for larger picture) Money Multiplier (click for larger picture) Confidence is the key, market participants have lost trust in financial markets and politicians. If investors...
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SOARING FREIGHT EXPENDITURES
October_13th_2010.mp3 Soaring Freight Expenditures Most people depend on the media to report on the economy and many associate movements in stock market indicies to reflect the level of underlying growth evident in the economy. That could be a dangerous assumption when investing. Cass Freight Index (click for larger picture) When investing it is important to realize we have a market of stocks not a stock market. Most mutual funds and exchange traded funds attempt to diversify and aim to...
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BREAKING OUT OF THE RANGE
September_29th_2010.mp3 Breaking Out of the Range Global equities have traded within a 100 point range on the SP 500 stock index over the last year, with several opportunities to buy at the 1045 level and sell at 1145 taking out 9.5% a number of times. Recent strength suggests a new upward bias. SP 500 Index (click for larger picture) As we approach the end of the third quarter fear and bearish forecasts still surround equity markets. It appears the third quarter will show a 10.9% advance...
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POST RECESSION RALLY
September_22nd_2010.mp3 Post Recession Rally Economists officially declare that the recession ended in June 2009. MoneyFlows (click for larger picture) Well its official, economists have declared that the recession ended 14 months ago. Since that time U.S. stock indexes are up 32% Canadian composite equities are 25% higher. Their timing might be off but have quashed fears of a double dip recession. A rising money flow line indicates that buyers of equities are being more aggressive, a...
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RECORD HIGHS
September_15th_2010.mp3 Record Highs Once again Gold bugs have infested the air waves. A record high was set yesterday at $1,276.50 an ounce, 7/10 of a percent above the last high in June. Should you buy or sell? Gold (click for larger picture) Gold bugs are on the march again recommending holding gold as a core position in ones portfolio of investments. Gold is touted as the global currency and store of value in uncertain times. A historic peak in 1980 was $887.50 which fell 71% to lows set...
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COPPER - A LEADING INDICATOR
September_8th_2010.mp3 Copper - A LeadingIndicator Double dip? Recession concerns? Economic recovery? More stimulus spending required? Concerns of global recession permeate every newscast. What indicator should we watch to gauge the economy of the future? Copper (click for larger picture) Recessionary fears are affecting communities globally and many are wondering if the situation is getting worse or if there is some improvement underway. Many gauge the U.S. dollar value or bond yield levels...
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BONDS FALL, RATES RISE
September_1st_2010.mp3 Bonds Fall, Rates Rise Investors have been disappointed with the performance, or lack of performance of their mutual funds. Equity markets despite volatility have not been friendly to the buy and hold mentality. Many investors are jumping out the frying pan and into the fire of rising interest rates. 30 year USTreasury Bond Index (click for larger picture) Frustrations from 10 years of underperformance have seen many investors lock in a fixed rate at near record lows....
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FEAR AND GREED
August_25th_2010.mp3 Fear and Greed In the movie 'Wall Street', Gordon Gekko says, 'Greed is Good' as the market soars higher. In market parlance, the opposite of greed is fear which is bad for investments, as the market has a tendency to scare people out at the bottom and suck them in at the top. Market Emotion Cycle (click for larger picture) 'Fear and Greed' tend to rule at market tops and bottoms. The market emotion cycle sees optimism turn to excitement, the thrill leads to euphoria and...
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GLOBAL MARKET RESULTS
August_18th_2010.mp3 Global MarketResults It is difficult enough to track our own equity markets day to day but Global markets and events are important in this millisecond decision making World. Global MarketResults (click for larger picture) Global events and market fluctuations affect domestic markets instantaneously. Global equity markets have mixed returns shifting rapidly day to day minute to minute. At this point in time Japanese stocks are the weakest in 2010 off 12.38%. The strongest...
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RANGEBOUND
August_11th_2010.mp3 Rangebound Global equity markets down, global equity markets up; day to day it is hard to understand, are we gaining or losing? Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) (click for larger picture) Stock indices and most mutual funds have been poor performers over the last ten years. Ten years ago the Dow Jones Industrial average was 11,027.80. Today it is 10,466.10, 561.70 points lower, down 5% after 10 years. In 2010 we are off 791.91 points from the 2010 high, off 7% but up...
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CEMENTING AN IDEA
August_4th_2010.mp3 Cementing an Idea Where should you invest? Mutual Funds like stock indices have been poor performers over the last 10 years. Interest rates of 3% are not enticing. It takes some original thinking and realizing that it is a market of stocks not a stock market. Cemex SAB de CV (click for larger picture) Summertime, cottages, camping and travel. While stuck in traffic with road construction and bridge repairs think about investing. The North American road infrastructure is...
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RISKS OF RISING RATES
July_28th_2010.mp3 Risks of Rising Rates Investors have been disappointed with the performance or lack of performance of their mutual funds. Equity markets despite volatility have not been friendly to the buy and hold mentality. Many investors are jumping out the frying pan and into the fire of rising interest rates. Bank of Canada Interest Rates (click for larger picture) Frustrations from 10 years of underperformance have seen many investors lock in a fixed rate at near record lows. A...
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TARGETING VOLATILITY
July_21st_2010.mp3 Targeting Volatility Is it time to differentiate yourself when investing? Textbooks suggest a well diversified investment portfolio often linked to a stock index or a mutual fund. The trouble is, most equity indexes and mutual funds are at the same levels as 10 years ago, the lost decade for investment returns. Volatility Index (click for larger picture) Many investors have lost money in the last ten years patiently waiting for their mutual funds and stocks to show a...
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RISK? REWARD?
July_14th_2010.mp3 Risk? Reward? Two weeks ago we discussed avoiding the Thundering Herd of negative sentiment which brought equities down 17.1% using the S P 500. In the last 7 trading days we have had consecutive up day with a 8.8% rally. Apple Inc. (click for larger picture) ATT Inc (click for larger picture) A month ago (May 26th) we discussed a Fibonacci target of 1008.55 on the SP 500 the actual low was 1010.91. The market had moved into a buy zone as discussed June 30th, using risk...
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FEAR AND THE THUNDERING HERD!
June_30th_2010.mp3 Fear and the Thundering Herd! Fear and the Thundering Herd; should you join the negative stampede or is it time to run against the masses? As we approach the end of the second quarter fear and bearish forecasts surround equity markets. It appears the second quarter will show a decline of 10.8% from the 1st quarter of 2010 using the bellwether SP 500 Index and down 6.4% so far in 2010. However we are still up 13.5% from year ago levels. SP500 Index (click for larger...
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OPPORTUNISTIC MOVES
June_23rd_2010.mp3 Opportunistic Moves SP/TSXComposite (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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EURO PEAKS AND TROUGHS
June_16th_2010.mp3 Euro Peaks and Troughs Euro-US Dollar(click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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FOOL'S GOLD
June_9th_2010.mp3 Fool's Gold Gold (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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EMOTIONAL MARKETS
June_2nd_2010.mp3 Emotional Markets Market Emotion Cycle (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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APPROACHING A TURN
May_26th_2010.mp3 Approaching a Turn SP 500 Retracements (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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CRUDE UNDERSTANDING
May_19th_2010.mp3 Crude Understanding Crude Oil (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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NO BID DEFICIT
May_12th_2010.mp3 No BidDeficit Budget Deficits of Euro (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
May_5th_2010.mp3 SP/TSX Composite Index SP/TSXComposite Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional.
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GLOBAL STOCKS
April_28th_2010.mp3 Global Stocks Global Stock Returns (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Risk vs Reward
April_21st_2010.mp3 Risk vs Reward Apple Inc. (click for larger picture) Citigroup Inc. (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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INFLATION OR DEFLATION
April_14th_2010.mp3 Inflation or Deflation? Consumer Price Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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A TALE OF TWO CITI'S.
April_7th_2010.mp3 A Tale of Two Citi's. Citi, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian - U.S. Dollar (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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GLOBAL MARKETS - FIRST QUARTER 2010
March_31st_2010.mp3 Global Markets - First Quarter 2010? Global Market Returns (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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BUY HIGH, SELL LOW?
March_24th_2010.mp3 Buy High, Sell Low? Flat Decade (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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MONEY SUPPLY
March_17th_2010.mp3 Money Supply Money Supply (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Rolling Commodities
March_10th_2010.mp3 Rolling Commodities Various Commodity Market Indicies (Bloomberg) (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Insuring Performance
March_3rd_2010.mp3 Insuring Performance HXD - Horizons BetaPro SP TSX 60 Bear Plus (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Sentiment and Volatility
February_24th_2010.mp3 Sentiment and Volatility VIX - CBOE Volatility Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Unpaid Patents
February_17th_2010.mp3 Unpaid Patents EK - Eastman Kodak Company (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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An Overdiversified Portfolio
February_10th_2010.mp3 An OVERdiversified Portfolio Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Canadian Dollar
February_3rd_2010.mp3 Canadian Dollar - US Dollar (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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US GRP Growth Accelerates
January_27th_2010.mp3 U.S. GDP (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Safety Beware
January_20th_2010.mp3 30-Year Treasury Yield (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Attractive Equity
January_13th_2010.mp3 NYSE Euronext (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Points to Consider While Investing
January_6th_2010.mp3 Points to Consider While Investing Tom Waitt When you buy, enter 2 sells. Monitor your investments and change your sell points. Buy high and sell higher. Keep winners, buy dips, sell losers. Change when things change. Know your abilities and get help when needed. Stick with excellent liquidity. Remain flexible and open minded. Avoid over-diversification. Avoid following the herd mentality. Stick with trusted brands. Overcome fear and greed pressures. Understand the...
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Decades of Movement - TSX
December_30th_2009.mp3 SP TSX Composite Index (click for larger picture)Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Decade of Volatility - Canadian Dollar
December_23rd_2009.mp3 Canadian Dollar - US Dollar (click for larger picture)Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Bull & Bear ETFS
HXD - Horizons BetaPro SP TSX 60 Bear (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Rising Global Equities
December_9th_2009.mp3 Index Chart (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Natural Gas
November_18th_2009.mp3 Natural Gas (click for larger picture)Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Kraft Foods
November_11th_2009.mp3 Kraft Foods Inc (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Range Bound Equities
November_4th_2009.mp3 TSX Composite Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Interest Rates on the Rise
October_28th_2009.mp3 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yield (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Highs and Lows on the Canadian Dollar
October_21st_2009.mp3 Canadian Dollar - U.S. Dollar (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Bears and Bulls
October_14th_2009.mp3 HXD - Horizons BetaPro SP TSX 60 Bear Plus (click for larger picture) HXU - Horizons BetaPro SP TSX 60 Bull Plus (click for larger picture)Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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US Dollar Value
October_7th_2009.mp3 U.S. Dollar Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Timing is Everything!
September_30th_2009.mp3 Gold, 100 Troy Oz. COMEX (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Market Emotions and Commotions
September_23rd_2009.mp3 Market Emotion Cycle Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Profit or Protect?
September_16th_2009.mp3 Horizons BetaPro SP TSX 60 Bear Plus - TSE:HXD (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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TSX Shifting Risk
September_9th_2009.mp3 TSX Composite Index (Sept. 9th) (click for larger picture) TSX Composite Index (Aug. 19th) (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Buy Point / Sell Point Canadian $
September_2nd_2009.mp3 Canadian Dollar - U.S. Dollar (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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US Dollar Bounce?
August_26_2009.mp3 U.S. Dollar Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Targeted Buys and Sell Points
August_19_2009.mp3 TSX Composite Index (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Individual Equities for Individuals
August_13_2009.mp3 WalMart - NYSE:WMT (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Canadian Dollar Volatility
August_12_2009.mp3 Canadian Dollar - U.S. Dollar (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Dow Theory Confirmation
July_22_2009.mp3 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (click for larger picture) DOW JONES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Targeting Risk / Reward
July_15_2009.mp3 SP/TSX Composite Index - TSE:TSEA (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Sentiment Roller Coaster
June_24_2009.mp3 Sentiment Roller Coaster (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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World Population
June_17_2009.mp3 The Ten Most Populous Nations (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading please contact an investment professional.
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Natural Gas
June_10_2009.mp3 Natural Gas (click for larger picture) Before trading please contact an investment professional. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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US Dollar
June_3rd_2009.mp3 U.S. Dollar vs International Currencies (click for larger picture) Before trading please contact an investment professional. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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Crude Oil - Risk/Reward
May_27_2009.mp3 Crude Oil (click for larger picture) Before trading please contact an investment professional. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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Copper - Positive Indicator of Economic Activity
May_25_2009.mp3 Copper, High Grade Comex (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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Investing in Infrastructure
May_20_2009.mp3 Eagle Materials Inc. - NYSE:EXP (click for larger picture) If you are interested in buying this security, please call to discuss. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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Risk/Reward - Buy and Sell Points
May_15_2009.mp3 Buyer when risk reward is 2:1 - twice as much upside vs downside. Seller when risk reward is 1:2 - twice as much downside vs upside. Horizons BetaPro SP/TSX Capped Financials (ETF) - TSE:HFU BUY CHART (click for larger picture) Horizons BetaPro SP/TSX Capped Financials (ETF) - TSE:HFU SELL CHART (click for larger picture) Horizons BetaPro SP/TSX Capped Financials (ETF) - TSE:HFU BUY-BACK CHART (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your...
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Attractive ETF for Trading
May_13_2009.mp3 Horizons BetaPro SP/TSX Capped Financials (ETF) - TSE:HFU (click for larger picture) Buyer when risk reward is 2:1 - twice as much upside vs downside. Seller when risk reward is 1:2 - twice as much downside vs upside. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the top right of the page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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Canadian Dollar vs US Dollar
May_06_2009.mp3 CANADIAN / U.S. DOLLAR (click for larger picture) Seller when risk reward is 1:2 - twice as much downside vs upside. Buyer when risk reward is 2:1 - twice as much upside vs downside. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the top right of the page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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The Four Bad Bear Markets
THE FOUR BAD BEAR MARKETS May_1st_2009.mp3 FOUR BAD BEAR MARKETS (click for larger picture) Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the top right of the page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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Billion Dollar Takeover
BILLION DOLLAR TAKEOVER April_29_2009.mp3 ABB Grain - ASX:ABB.AX (click for larger picture) Scroll down to see past posts as well as recently discussed picks and how they've fared using a strategy with with an entry point and targeted exit points. Let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the "Unique Perspective" form on the top right of the page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633.
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