Top Traders Unplugged

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what’s missing. And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here! ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:34 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:26 - Industry performance update 13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition 17:18 - Insights on carbon markets 21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets? 28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system 34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system 47:27 - More diversified = more risk? 49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment? 57:50 - Is trend...

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal...bbut shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz 08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology 12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark? 14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are 19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings? 22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect 25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your...

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:50 - Catching up 05:02 - Industry performance update 13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing 24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently? 32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index? 38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks 43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes 49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performance Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the...

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn’t just a signal, but a lever. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen 04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function? 13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries 16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam? 21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis? 25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets? 29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits 32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California? 33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management 36:56 - It's all in the EUAs 40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management 45:39 - Wrapping up Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS:...

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 01:32 - What has caught our attention recently? 07:10 - Industry performance update 09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it 16:33 - The drivers of spread 23:26 - Breaking markets into factors 26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades 31:39 - Is there too much money in trend? 36:47 - Key insights into FX trading 44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently 47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers 50:23 - The real process of an allocator 56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy 01:01:35 - You should just go play...

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Louis on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave 03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data 09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy? 11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable? 16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time? 20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets 25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September? 26:58 - Powell - in or out? 31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar 38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution 43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots 46:55 -...

Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it’s about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire 06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity 14:23 - Industry performance update 19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover 21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following 27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following 34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives 40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration 48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum 50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits 54:02 - What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing 57:48 - 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry 01:02:00 -...

From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility’s inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market’s next move before price does. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 59:42 - Introduction to the series 02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going? 10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool 18:55 - The history of the VIX index 23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon 26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025) 35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets 42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options 50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge options Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...

When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:32 - What has caught our attention recently? 08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview 13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated? 17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles 21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman 26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed 32:35 - Industry performance update 37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following 43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place? 45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend? 52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All...

What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Diane on X and read her book. Episode TimeStamps: 02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle 03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be? 06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up 11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP 18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity 23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing 26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic...

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:15 - What has caught our attention recently? 09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence 10:43 - Industry performance update 14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance 21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends? 23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare 26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today 36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins 43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted 53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor? 58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity 01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation 01:07:17 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Steven on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell 05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed? 10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days? 13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets? 16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it 21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data 24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity 28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation 32:15 - Do deficits even matter? 36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be? 44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell? 45:11 -

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Follow Tom on LinkedIn, Episode TimeStamps: 01:52 - What has caught our attention recently? 06:11 - Industry performance update 07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment 09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper 14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk 17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies 22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed? 28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets? 33:35 - The structure of an allocator 36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication? 42:14...

What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Artem on X. Check out these resources about farmland investing Episode Timestamps: 02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation 06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)? 10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income? 12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate? 15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs 19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk 23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing 27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing? 30:49 - The tech side of agriculture - where are we heading? 33:58 - Major changes in...

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:19 - What has been on our radar recently? 03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode! 05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it 07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth 08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration 11:01 - Industry performance update 13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment? 24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment 30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event? 32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us? 41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell? 46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge 56:15 - The Emperor's New

Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn’t a retrospective. It’s a clear warning from someone who’s seen what happens when incentives go unchecked. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Rick on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series 01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli 05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made 06:32 - The historical performance of gold 08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates? 10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest 13:30 - A shadow Fed president 14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything 18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending 22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit 23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end? 29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy? 36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat 39:03 - How

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:48 - What has been on our radar recently? 07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper 09:45 - Industry performance update 14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures? 23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment 31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key 33:57 - A better alternative trend following? 37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry 44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes 53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate 58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication 59:33 - Defining tracking error Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Cian on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh 05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out? 06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime 09:33 - A move towards mass customization 10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next? 13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach 17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies 20:09 - More growth or more all-weather? 23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading 28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies? 30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers 36:55...

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:57 - What has caught our attention recently? 04:38 - Industry performance update 07:38 - Is trend thriving? 09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview 16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar 18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns? 27:26 - The value of long term track records 34:30 - Is trend following flawed? 37:48 - What are investors actually interested in? 44:32 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets. ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital 06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund? 12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund? 18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations 25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios 35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower 39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions 41:40 - What is so cool about stocks? 46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure 51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold 54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin 01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can