A Value View - The Merchants Trust PLC Podcast

What’s in store for UK interest rates and investors as we approach year-end? In this 32nd episode of a Value View podcast, portfolio manager Simon Gergel shares his outlook and discusses the factors that had informed the investment case behind Whitbread, owner of Premier Inn. Listen in to find out if Premier Inn’s all-you-can-eat breakfast will stay on the menu.

Who holds the power: the government or the market? In this episode, Simon Gergel discusses the aftermath of the recent UK elections, marked by a significant Labour victory. He explores the market response and highlights where opportunities are being found today. Listen in now to find out more about the impact of a new government and what it means for investors.

In this 30th episode of the A Value View podcast, Jon and Simon discuss dividends once again. With Merchants having reached its 42nd consecutive year of paying an increased dividend, just how has the trust managed this? And, what does the state of play look like for the future, not only for income, but for the UK equity market in general? Takeovers, banks, the economic outlook and the effects of political uncertainty all come under the spotlight.

In this episode, Merchant’s portfolio manager, Simon Gergel is challenged around his ‘glass half full’ view of the UK market. Simon takes the challenge in hand explaining the factors behind his thinking and why, despite short term pain, the opportunity set for investors in the UK market remains pretty much unprecedented. We look at how Simon and his team choose good opportunities for the portfolio from that opportunity set, and which sectors are currently providing the best dividend opportunities.

There have been many reasons over recent years for investors to be ‘out of love’ with the UK; Brexit, political uncertainty, pandemic, Ukraine, Trussonomics and the perception of worse inflation & economic performance for the UK to name a handful. But, has the depressed sentiment been overdone? In this podcast the team discuss that with many of these factors firmly in the rear-view mirror, and with interest rates potentially close to their peak and UK economic growth recently being revised upwards, could the glass actually be half-full, rather than the pessimistic alternative?

As the trust gears up for the release of its latest interim results, many investors will have an eye on the upcoming dividend. As an AIC Dividend Hero, the trust is well known for maintaining a steady dividend payment throughout the many ups and downs in market conditions over the past several decades. Host Jon Cronin and Portfolio Manager Simon Gergel discuss the approach taken to try to achieve the trust’s aims for shareholders and where the best opportunities currently lie for value investors in the UK market. A ranking, a rating or an award provides no indicator of future performance and is not constant over time. Past performance does not predict future returns.

The housing market has long been seen as a key bellwether of the overall state of UK market. But the recent squeeze on the cost of living – namely, rising prices which have in turn driven interest rates higher – has been keenly felt in that sector. In the latest podcast episode, Jon and Simon debate the fortunes of the UK’s housebuilders as well as looking at what other companies could benefit from a more buoyant sector, with first quarter trading generally having been quite resilient and mortgage rates having come down a little.

In the latest episode of ‘A Value View’, host Jon Cronin gets Simon Gergel’s thoughts on the current outlook for the UK’s FTSE 100. On the one-hand, the FTSE hit an all-time high in February, on the back of bumper profits for several of its constituent stocks. But, on the other hand, there are questions around the future growth prospects of the London market after two major UK companies announced they intended to pursue stock market listings in New York. Simon gives his thoughts on the market’s current state and, more importantly, it’s future. Recorded and produced by Lansons.

Are we in an environment where investors can now see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel? Some inflation pressures are abating and although rates are still going up, the fear that rates are going to go up faster, and to higher levels than expected, is probably over. This is already starting to be reflected in the stock market. However, the UK market still trades well below historical averages with many strong companies trading at unusually attractive valuations. Against this backdrop, Simon Gergel talks to Jon Cronin about whether he’s feeling optimistic or pessimistic about the coming year and beyond as an investor. Recorded and Produced by Lansons.

There are a number of serious challenges facing the UK economy – rising energy costs, the cost of living crisis, rising interest rates and mortgage costs and supply chain issues to name a few. However, while they may not be showing signs of abating, a number of factors are becoming ‘less bad’ or at least not getting worse. Also, the UK stockmarket is different to the UK economy, particularly when investing at the larger end of the market capitalisation scale, where the economic exposure is more global. Given this dichotomy, could the UK market be an interesting (if challenging) place to invest with a long-term view? Produced and recorded by Lansons.

On the occasion of the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, Simon and Jon reflect not only on that incredible achievement, but also on the highs and lows faced by The Merchants Trust over its 133 year history. Almost six months into a tumultuous 2022, it also falls due to look more currently and have a mid-point reflection and ponder what may be coming up for the remainder of the year. With markets reacting daily to news flow, Simon describes how there remain opportunities for those investors who can look beyond the near-term gloom. Recorded and Produced by Lansons

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent concerns over fossil fuel supplies from Russia have combined in a perfect storm with already rising energy prices and wider cost of living inflation to push energy security and affordability into the spotlight as part of the ongoing energy transition debate. Portfolio manager Simon Gergel and host Jon Cronin share thoughts on the current energy situation, as well as discussing the investment strategy supporting rising dividends for shareholders. Recorded and produced by Lansons.

The UK market has been more resilient than global peers so far in 2022 and whilst highly valued growth stocks across the globe feel the impact of rising inflation and interest rates, many value stocks that were previously languishing have seen a welcome boost. International investors appear to be looking more closely at owning UK stocks, but how consumer spending will pan out in the current environment is still to be seen. Recorded and produced by Lansons.

As 2021 fades in the memory, the spectre of inflation is firmly on investors’ minds and Simon Gergel gives his view on what that may mean for markets in 2022. After a year where finding genuinely under-priced good businesses – rather than those that are cheap for a reason – paid dividends, Simon explains how extreme pricing anomalies still appear prevalent. This could be where investors are overlooking longer-term potential or, equally, being over exuberant on short-term earnings momentum. Produced and recorded remotely by Lansons

Supply issues have been in the spotlight of late. Where companies had got used to ‘just-in-time’ supply chains, they have now seen just how easily these can be disrupted. Whilst such factors mean we’re not out of the woods yet in terms of economic recovery, and wary of inflationary pressures building up, Simon Gergel describes how he’s trying to look past the short-term noise. Produced and recorded by Lansons at the Lansons studio in Farringdon, London.

Five years have passed since the Brexit referendum and many different factors have made that a particularly extraordinary and challenging period for the UK market. However, the trick has been to look through the various market uncertainties and using that lens, many mispriced opportunities have presented themselves. Right now, the UK market still looks cheap relative to other markets, and the interest of overseas investors, private equity and corporate buyers has most definitely been piqued. Produced and recorded remotely by Lansons

The latest reporting season has highlighted the difference between resilient businesses and those hit very hard by the effects of the pandemic. Returning dividends across many sectors are an encouraging sign for income seekers and the vaccine rollout is giving hope that recovery is looming, though the lessons of the recent past should prompt caution. Finally, key themes driving the portfolio come under the microscope. Produced and recorded remotely by Lansons

In this episode, Simon Gergel discusses the potential for a renewed focus on individual companies and their prospects in 2021. While bigger picture themes such as Brexit, the US election, and the impacts of the pandemic dominated markets last year, the associated uncertainties are starting to fall away. Produced and recorded remotely by Lansons

In this Episode, Simon Gergel takes a closer look at how businesses are emerging from the constraints of lockdown and what the trend for dividends from UK equity markets might be. Finally, Brexit trade negotiations are once again a talking point.

In this episode, Simon Gergel takes a closer look at the situation for income from UK equity markets. What factors should investors consider to differentiate businesses that are suffering a short term shock from those that may be impacted by longer-term changes in behavior? Produced and recorded by Lansons remotely.