After Office Hours with Puget Sound Economic Forecaster

The team covers myriad hot topics, including the impact of the government shut down on economic statistics, the impact of AI on the job market and the economy, how tariffs are or are not impacting consumers and how all of this impacts the Puget Sound economy.

The team explores game theory and how it relates to recent economic news.

Hart and James bring in all of the research economists to discuss the latest data around unemployment, construction, rate cuts, water adjudication and what it all means for the Puget Sound economy.

The team gets together to chat about the current forecast. Are interest rates coming down? Inflation rates?

Grab your Coffee and Popcorn (it will make some sense later) and listen in on what the team has to say in this glorious summer of 2023.

Spring has sprung in our region – from Tulips in the Skagit Valley to a fresh dusting of pollen just about everywhere else. There is always such a rush of optimism when the cold dark days of winter in the Pacific Northwest yield to the random weather days of Spring – will it be sunny, warm, cold, rainy, windy or some other adjective? All we can say is our colleagues in meteorology truly help improve the perception of accuracy for Economists. You have found yourself another edition of After Office Hours with the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. It is here that you will find an ongoing conversation about our Puget Sound regional economy. We record this podcast about one month after posting our quarterly forecast and report as a way to expand on the report but also engage you in some of the same discussions we have every day in our office. The team came together on April 12, 2023. The group on deck for this economic dive is… Dr. Hart Hodges an economics professor at Western Washington University. Hart writes the regional forecast article and will occasionally contribute other articles based on the topics. Hart and I both co-direct the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western. Bethany King is our Research Economist and works with the switches and dials of many of our models while providing a wide array of insights into the forecasts. Bethany writes many of the articles each quarter as well as the monthly updates for our digital subscribers. Cam MacKenzie rounds out the talent portion of the show today. Cam is our Research Designer and contributes to the Forecaster with a variety of articles and the retail section. James McCafferty, James serves as the general manager and publisher for the report. One of the most intriguing aspects of this work is considering the shifting landscape ahead and the many, well too many most of the time, aspects that could dramatically impact the forecasting work. Influences from the international, national, regional, public sector, private sector and the fantasy sector of social media all seem to be moving in different directions all at the same time. The team goes over the following topics - referencing articles. Residential Real Estate There has been a lot of media ink spilled these past few weeks related to real estate. Bethany covers what going on with residential real estate, what is happening nationally and how does it connect locally. Zillow and Moody’s (https://buff.ly/3nYBgNt) have drawn very different opinions on what the national market is doing Commercial Real Estate Hart, discusses reports that the commercial real estate sector has signs of sluggishness (https://buff.ly/3o194t0) and provides his take on the local market and what might influence a shift in current conditions. Consumers Cam covers the WSJ article posted recently declaring "the must have economy is in decline" as consumers are reining in their spending (https://buff.ly/3mmSKm4). Cam reports on consumer confidence and consumer activity, GDP Hart has an opinion on the Atlanta Fed downgraded in their GDPNow forecast again. Now for 3 or 4 weeks in a row with it now reporting 1.5%. (https://buff.ly/3AuIjQb) We are hearing very conflicting talking points on this front… from a recession is eminent to never and that rate cuts are eminent or several years off. This seems like people hanging their hat on one metric in a complex world – Hart states if this is correct or not. Manufacturing Bethany discussed investment in manufacturing and talks about what is underneath that investment. (spending related to manufacturing) Retail Cam add some details to the retail forecast and current conditions. Housing and Construction Bethany, add some details to the housing and construction forecast. On the Other Hand Hart adds additional insight to the article he wrote for this last report that focused on the positive aspects of the economy.

Creators & Guests James McCaffertyHart Hodges

The team starts the discussion with what they are currently understanding from the data, also how different outlooks can come from the same data. Fun with data leads the team to discuss recession and inflation, worldwide, nation wide and right here in our Puget Sound region. Cam will go over the retail numbers. Hart and Bethany have insight on the Housing and Commercial real estate markets. Find our what Hart, DOESN'T want to talk about! It may not be all sunshine and rainbows but it is an honest discourse on what we our seeing in the economic forecast for the Puget Sound region!

James, Hart and Bethany get together once again to talk forecasting while faced with a global pandemic, global changes throughout the labor market, supply chain, and massive turmoil within the commodities market, and the introduction of a war. Main topics of today's discussion are Inflation, Recession, Federal reserve and interest rate adjustments, Labor Market, Consumer Confidence, Retail spend, Construction, different Metrics the team is really looking at and of course, our good friend COVID-19. A couple of gems from the podcast: "People can be freaked out about all sorts of things that don't have to do with the economy and it affects the economy." - Bethany King. "Who knew that being a vegan would be a hedge against inflation..." - James McCafferty. "yeah it (inflation) is 9% but that's the start of the conversation, not the end." - Dr. Hart Hodges. Finally Bethany provides a glimpse at what our subscribers will be getting a chance to view with the monthly updates!

Join James, Hart, Bethany and newcomer Audrey as they discuss the current events of the economic day! In this episode the team covers the current forecast of Covid impacts, Inflation and recession risk, how supply chain entanglements and what people are spending money on, impacts inflationary pressures. Hart will discuss Fed actions, projections and CPI vs PCE. The team also covers the impact the war in the Ukraine may have on the local economy. Which drives a look into how a cultural shift to source locally is adds fuel to the inflation fire. The topic them moves to housing bubbles and how a clearing of supply chain in construction products coupled with a shifting of commercial space use to residential, will actually help drive higher housing supply. Employment and the labor market is discussed by the entire team, with Audrey adding her perspective on what it is like for folks just entering the workforce. Bethany take a moment to discuss the monthly updates, and how things are looking up in the economy. But remember, one month of good data doesn't equal a trend.

Covid Impacts - Omicron Inflation concerns Supply Chain updates - Imports are rising what does that mean? Employment - natural rate of unemployment, are wages actually rising? Discussion of real wages and median wages. How is the Fed Reacting - or not reacting How do the Retail Numbers look? The Holidays were a little different this year! Housing - shortage continues - how is that impacting the marketing and the housing index? Mortgage rates and housing affordability. What the monthly updates are showing - a decidedly mixed bag.

Hello and welcome to After Office Hours with the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster. This is your home for discussion about the Puget Sound region’s economy. The economy and what is affecting it continues to be in a high rate. We are recording this on October 15th for those keeping score – depending on when you are listening there are going to likely be new developments to keep in mind. We developed this podcast and our social media stream to give you the inside glimpse of what it is like to be sitting in our research center and overhearing all of our side conversations as we track what is going on in the economy. So please, have a seat, get comfortable but please, no flash photography. Before diving into current economic thoughts let’s see who is here today. My name is James McCafferty and I serve as the general manager and publisher for the newsletter along with being cast into the role of host for this podcast. Dr. Hart Hodges is an economics professor at Western Washington University. Hart writes the regional forecast article and will occasionally contribute other articles based on the topics. Hart and I both co-direct the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western. Bethany King is our Research Economist and works with the switches and dials of many of our models while providing a wide array of insights into the forecasts. Bethany writes many of the articles each quarter as well as the monthly updates for our digital subscribers. Rounding out this panel of super smart people today is Brianna Berkson who has been with our Research Center for many years and is currently completing her MBA here at Western. With all of that, grab your beverage and snack of choice and let’s see if we can unpack all that is going on in the economy. We should once again start with COVID itself. This week we have learned that Washington state has dropped in new cases across all the age bands which is great news. We have also heard from our State’s K-12 leaders that families should expect to see schools opening and closing around the state due to case counts but not at a state-wide level. Amazon took the surprising path of announcing that they would abandon their previously held statement of a return to the office in favor of a hybrid approach as long as employees committed to being in the office if they were needed for in-person activities. Outside of Washington case counts are all over the place with Idaho and Montanna being two of the hottest places at the moment leading to Washington State pleading to not over run our hospitals. In a nut shell – we are in the end game of a pandemic and the data is still all over the place as to what we should make of it all. It appears that the indicators all show us making a gradual decent from pandemic to endemic as we move through the Winter with the largest threats being another variant or a serious flu season. The real action has been in employment news in the weeks since we published the Forecaster. Bethany, runs down the latest and what it may mean for our next forecast. · 3% left jobs in August. 30% are expected to change jobs in the next 12 months so this is not out of the box and we should expect this to become a near normal statistic for awhile · New claims for unemployment last week at lowest level since March 2020 · 1/3 of unemployed are long-term unemployed Hart spends some time talking about inflation covering the latest thinking about inflation concerns and Supply Chain problems and how it impacts thoughts about the forecast. Brianna covers the retail numbers. Start your holiday shopping early! Multiple companies – Costco, Home Depot, Walmart and others – are resorting to private charters to move their inventories and inventories at stores are very low. Brianna covers how the team at the Forecaster thinks this plays out. Bethany covers the Real Estate situation and the impact of a lot of work from home in the chatter. Is this impacting housing and...

If rent is rising, what does that tell us? Listen to the full podcast for more information.

Are those crazy high truck prices a sign of inflation or a short term affect of supply chain issues?

Commercial Real Estate is seeing some changes.