Outerblue

The war in Iran has shaken markets and is threatening the stability of the global economy. As energy prices surge and the news flow comes thick and fast, this month’s host, Silvia Di Silvio, speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to hear her thinking on the crisis and how it is changing Amundi's investment views. They take a closer look at what the war means for inflation, both in the near and longer-term, and when a temporary supply shock might turn into a more permanent change to the economic regime. They also consider the potential reactions from central banks as policymakers try to manage this complex environment of higher inflation, due to energy prices, combined with weaker growth. The edition continues with a focus on the US dollar, which has been faring relatively well in the current crisis. Do we expect this to be the end of the USD downward trajectory? Finally, we wrap up with a review of how these developments are impacting our asset allocation and portfolio construction views and the importance of smarter, multi-layered diversification in building resilient portfolios. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. To learn more, read our latest articles on the Amundi Research Center: https://research-center.amundi.com/ Topics covered: Energy crisis, conflict, Iran, inflation, monetary policy, investment views, asset allocation, risk, economy, geopolitics, central banks, Federal Reserve, markets, investors, interest rates, equities, United States, USD, diversification, gold, hedging, Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

As tariffs figures once again hit the headlines, our new episode of Outerblue Convictions measures the feeling in the markets and looks at some of the main drivers over the past few weeks. Swaha Pattanaik speaks to Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to gauge her reaction to the latest round of tariffs, and whether these impact our investment views. This month's episode looks at the switch we've seen in global markets in this new era of controlled disorder, analyses some of the disruptions from AI that are already starting to play out, and explores some of the diversification opportunities that can be found in this fragmented environment. We also discuss whether we can expect the gold rally to continue, why India remains a key investment theme, and we finish by looking forward to the upcoming EU summit and why it might be relevant for markets. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, central banks, gold, markets, investors, equities, bonds, fixed income, Europe, India, emerging markets, AI, diversification, tariffs, Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

After a flurry of headlines and announcements from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos in January, one key message is likely to survive after most of the speeches have been long-forgotten; The world is facing a rupture in the international order. Catching-up last week on her return from the meetings, Monica Defend, head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sat down with our host, Swaha Pattanaik, to share her observations from the ground and on how this rupture is likely to impact our economic research and investment views. As policy, geopolitics and volatility drive the market cycle, we look at what this means for the monetary policy outlook in the US and the key data driving forecasts. We look at some of the short and medium-term trend we're seeing in the markets, particularly gold and the forces driving the record highs, the trends impacting the US dollar and examine what has been happening in the Japanese market, both for foreign exchange and government bonds. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the short and medium-term. Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, Davos, geopolitics, central bank, Federal Reserve, Japan, Gold, markets, investors, interest rates, bonds, fixed income, FX, foreign exchange, United States, diversification Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

It's the time of year to look ahead, reflect back on what has happened, and make resolutions for the coming year. After explaining our market forecasts and investment views for 2026 in last month's podcast, in this episode we're focusing more closely on a key factor that drives market movements, monetary policy. Sitting down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, for the last time this year, our host, Swaha Pattanaik, asks all the essential questions to help investors understand the different expectations for monetary policy decisions in the months to come and which resolutions are realistic. Starting with the largest, the Federal Reserve, we explore the baseline scenario, we analyse the competing pressures and how the Fed is responding. We then compare this to the outlook in the Eurozone and our expectations for the ECB in 2026 in terms of interest rate movements. Finally, we compare these potential developments to our portfolio positioning in fixed income and equities and discuss some of the fragilities investors need to keep in mind. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on macro-economic signals and monetary policy moves. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the year ahead. Topics covered: Market forecasts, monetary policy, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, central bank, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, growth, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, bonds, fixed income, equities, United States, Europe, emerging markets, diversification Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this month's podcast, we take a longer view than usual, as we look at our market convictions and investment views for the next 12 months. Join our host, Swaha Pattanaik, for her regular catch up with Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, for a whistle-stop tour around the world and across asset classes to discover the key talking points from Amundi's 2026 Investment Outlook. After a year of dramatic market moves, geopolitical events and economic developments, what should investors expect for 2026? We look at the central questions that are shaping our investment views and decision making. In particular, how much impact will AI have on market growth next year and what companies and sectors will be the likely winners? What's the growth and monetary policy outlook for the major global economies? How will threats to central bank independence play out in the markets and will investors continue to diversify away from US assets? We explore the diversification theme and some of the interesting stories for investors to follow in emerging and private markets and the energy transition, among others. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on cross‑market signals. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the year ahead. Topics covered: Investment outlook, market forecasts, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, growth, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, equities, gold, United States, Europe, Japan, central bank, AI, diversification, Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Returning from trips to major summits in Washington and Shanghai, Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sits down with our host, Swaha Pattanaik, to discuss the tone on the ground and how this compares to what we're seeing in the markets and our own economic forecasts for the months to come. These international gatherings are a prime opportunity to hear, first-hand, the thinking of financial officials, policymakers and investors. This month's edition looks shares the key takeaways and our investment views in light of these observations. They take a closer look at the risks to watch and the drivers behind the curious coexistence of record equity and gold rallies. They revisit the Europe transformation story that has been emerging, and assess whether it's still attracting interest from investors as a diversifier. They also take a tour to China and Japan and examine what the latest economic and political developments mean for their respective growth and monetary policies. Concise, insightful and timely, this episode is essential listening for investors and asset allocators seeking a clear, expert take on cross‑market signals ahead of Amundi’s 2026 outlook. Tune in for practical perspectives, investment views and the themes that will shape portfolios in the months ahead. Topics covered: IMF, policy making, investment views, asset allocation, economy, growth, outlook, GDP, markets, investors, inflation, interest rates, monetary policy, forecasts, equities, gold, United States, Europe, China, Japan, central bank, tech rally, diversification, strategic autonomy, Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

While Europe headed to the beach, journalists were kept busy with the newsflow out of the US this summer, as central bank independence, new tariff announcements and foreign affairs negotiations continued to make headlines. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, return to their desks to catch-up you up on what all the developments mean for market outlook and how our investment views are evolving to keep pace. This episode takes a closer look at the shifting undercurrents in the US market: tariffs, labour figures, policy and inflation uncertainty. We dig deeper into how the current political pressures are effecting markets, in particular the current challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence and the moves on the US Treasuries yield curve. We also take a closer look at valuations in the US equities markets and see how the Indian and Chinese economies have been holding up against the new tariff announcements. Topics covered: Investment views, markets, forecasts, US economy, US dollar, central banks, Federal reserve, interest rates, monetary policy, tariffs, yields, equities, fixed income, treasuries, GDP, India, China, Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

With summer well underway in Europe, many may be on holiday, but this hasn't done anything to slow the newsflow. In particular, announcements from the US are keeping analysts busy. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, get together to work out what the latest developments mean for the markets and share their investment views for growth, inflation and asset valuations. With a new US budget agreement and continued threat of new tariffs we debate their impact, both realised and potential, on growth and inflation in the US and elsewhere. The independence of central bank decision-making has also been a big topic of the month as the Fed has been facing continued political pressure over its interest rate decisions, which is rattling US assets. What might be the consequences for the US dollar and US treasuries? Finally, we look at whether this earnings season is offering any early warning signs of things to come and we drill down into our investment views and outlook for the main asset classes and markets. Topics covered: investment views, markets, macroeconomics, central banks, Fed, growth, inflation, interest rates, tariffs, US budget, US dollar, US treasuries, fiscal policy, monetary policy, economic forecasts, emerging markets, Asia, equities, fixed income, credit, earnings, Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The first six months of 2025 brought many unexpected events and shocks that rocked financial markets and complicated the task of economic forecasters. As we enter the second half of the year, what has changed and what might this mean for the economic outlook for the rest of 2025. Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to get her view on the growth and monetary policy outlook for the remainder of 2025. They discuss the impact of tariffs and geopolitical shifts on growth prospects in the US, China and beyond. They consider which areas might benefit from a weaker US dollar and where yield curves might be heading next. Finally, they examine the areas of resilience in the markets, which could still offer opportunities to investors. Topics covered: Investment outlook, macroeconomics, forecasts, monetary policy, growth, interest rates, yield curves, bonds, equities, emerging markets, US dollar, China, US, Europe, Fed, debt, valuations, stock market, tariffs, geopolitics, volatility, AI, defence, Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Join our host, Swaha Pattanaik, as she sits down for her regular catch-up with Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, to give our perspective on the markets, analysis the trends and share our investment views for the weeks ahead. In this month's review, we discuss what's been driving the rise in yields on longer maturity US and Japanese bonds in recent weeks. Do we expect this trend to continue and what does this mean for fixed income markets more broadly? We also consider the outlook for inflation and monetary policy in the major economies around the globe and look more closely at the US market in particular, and examine how the uncertainty around tariffs has been impacting the equity markets. Finally, we drill down into the areas and asset classes that could be most appealing to investors, across developed and emerging markets. Topics covered: Investment views, investment convictions, financial markets, macroeconomics, monetary policy, fiscal policy, inflation, growth, interest rates, central banks, fixed income, yields, US, Japan, equities, bonds, emerging markets, tariffs Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The spring meetings in Washington are a useful platform to gauge opinion of policymakers, economists, bankers and investors from around the world. In this latest edition of our monthly investment views podcast, Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catches up with Swaha Pattanaik on her return from the US to share Amundi’s latest investment views and talk about the mood in Washington, and what this might mean for the markets. They discuss the impacts of US tariffs and the retaliatory measures on the global economic outlook, looking particularly at the consequences for growth and inflation expectations. They also consider what’s next for central bank moves and our forecasts for interest rates. Finally, they wrap up with the main convictions for some of the major global currencies, as well as the equity markets and some of the big things to watch in emerging markets. Topics covered: Investment views, global outlook, growth, inflation, forecasts, economics, equities, tariffs, US, Europe, emerging markets, Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Against a backdrop of extraordinary global uncertainty, Amundi's 2025 capital market assumptions report explores the game changers that are shaping investment decisions and asset class return expectations. Join Giulio Lombardo as he speaks to Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, and John O’Toole, Head of Multi-Asset Investment Solutions, to discover this year's main findings and what's changed since last year. Identifying three major themes for this year, Amundi's 2025 capital market assumptions take a closer look at new socio-economic scenarios with their higher geopolitical fragmentation and tariffs, it explores the impact of a delayed transition to net zero, and assesses the impact of artificial intelligence at a regional level. We dig deeper into these big transformative trends, including the macroeconomic and technological shifts, more frequent extreme climate events, and a slow transition, and look at how they are impacting our expectations for long-term returns for different asset classes globally. We also analyse how they're affecting long-term projections for growth and inflation. Finally, we look at how these developments may drive investment opportunities, particularly in Europe, and how investors can adjust their strategic asset allocation to incorporate these return expectations in their portfolios. Topics covered: markets, investment, economic, finance, capital market assumptions, return expectations, forecasts, trade, inflation, growth, GDP, central banks, Europe, tariffs, portfolios, asset allocation, equities, fixed income, emerging markets, real assets Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the fifth and last episode of our series on Shareholder Stewardship, Caroline Le Meaux, Global Head of ESG Research, Engagement, and Voting, and Edouard Dubois, Head of Proxy Voting, engage in a dynamic conversation on voting at annual general assemblies and how it is most effective when coupled with engagement with companies. Dialoguing with companies is very important in the voting activity: it can lead to improvements in companies strategies before or after the AGM has taken place. This episode will explore what proxy voting is, and why it is important in an overall stewardship strategy of an asset manager. Many themes will be touched upon, including board compensation, Say on Climate resolutions, and filing shareholder resolutions to accelerate improvements in the climate strategy. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

The market roller coaster continues. After riding a wave of optimism in Europe in the wake of the German fiscal bazooka to increase defense spending, the confirmation of US tariffs sent markets suddenly plunging. What will be the economic impact of Trump’s approach to trade and tariffs? Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of the Amundi Investment Institute, sit down for a special edition of Outerblue Research to discuss the latest market and economic developments and what these mean for investors. We untangle some of the consequences and probable reactions, in the short, medium, and longer term. What will be the impacts on supply chains? How will GDP growth and inflation be impacted? Will we see a recession in the US and what will be reactions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank? Finally, we detail some of our main calls for investors looking to increase portfolio resilience in this uncertain market environment. Topics covered: markets, investment, economic, finance, volatility, tariffs, trade, inflation, growth, GDP, central banks, US, Europe, Trump, portfolios Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the fourth episode of our five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Esther Law, Senior Investment Manager, Emerging Markets Debt and Responsible Investing Lead, and Luda Svystunova, Head of Social Research, engage in a dynamic conversation on shareholder engagement on social cohesion - linking human capital and human rights engagements to responsible investors financial considerations, as well as client and societal responsibilities of issuers. The engagement agenda on social issues continues to expand as new challenges and opportunities for companies and investors emerge in response to societal, regulatory and technological shifts. In this episode, the discussion centers on Amundi’s stewardship on social issues, the materiality and interlinkages between human capital and human rights, as well as their relationship to climate. Additionally, it also focuses on the impact that technology, especially artificial intelligence, is having on the companies’ responsible conduct agenda and how this is factored into our engagement process. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In this month's review of the latest developments on the global economy and in financial markets, we focus on the seismic shifts that have been happening in Europe in the past few weeks, in particular, the historic spending package approved by the German parliament. Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, catch-up to discuss the remarkable change in policy, and its implications for Germany and the wider Eurozone. Will the rally in European markets continue and what opportunities does this open up on the equity and fixed income markets? The episode continues by examining the monetary policy outlook in Europe and how this compares to the projections for US growth. Finally, we look at whether the Chinese stimulus package announcement has changed our view on the economic and market outlook for China. This month's topics: Germany, Europe, Defense spending, Markets, Growth, Inflation, Equity, Fixed income, US, China, Monetary policy, Interest rates Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Less than 2 months back in the White House, US president Donald Trump has packed in a great deal;Shifts in policy, tariffs, federal employment, not to mention a huge change in approach to foreign policy. This month, Swaha Pattanaik sits down with Jonathan Duensing, Head of Fixed Income at Amundi US, and Mahmood Pradhan, Head of Global Macro with the Amundi Investment Institute, to try to guide us through the present uncertainty in the markets. They examine how these different issues have been affecting the US economy as a whole, and bond markets in particular and explore where investors can find the best opportunities at the moment. How long will the current pain last, and when and where will the promised gains be realised? They discuss the extent to which the roadmap given during the election campaign has changed and how this is impacting market growth. Will Trump succeed in reducing government spending and what challenges will he face? They finish by drawing on their wealth of experience in previous crises togive their view on whether the current crisis is any different. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

In the third episode of our five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Molly Minton and Julien Foll, both Senior Analysts and Co-leads on Nature at Amundi, engage in a dynamic conversation on shareholder engagement on biodiversity - linking nature-related engagements to responsible investors financial considerations. More than half of the world’s GDP depends on natural resources and pressures on biodiversity and ecosystems present acute risks for investors and society at large. This episode will explore how Amundi uses the framework of the planetary boundaries as a tool to identify key engagement priorities around nature to encourage corporates to better address nature related impacts and risks while also capturing new business opportunities. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

After an eventful month trying to keep up with the breaking news, not least the debut of new AI model Deepseek, concerns over Trump’s tariff proposals, and European security concerns, Swaha Pattanaik and Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, sit down to reflect on what all these events mean for the markets. Find out what is driving the equity and fixed income markets and whether we can expect the current gold rush to continue. What were the outcomes of the Munich Security Conference? Have tariffs impacted China’s growth prospects? Where is the US dollar likely to go next? This jam-packed episode takes a look at all the major market events of the month. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Each year, Amundi and CREATE interview pension plans to highlight topics shaping the pension ecosystem. As pension investors transition to a new regime, this year, one question is at the top of everyone’s minds: where will the returns come from?The 2024 survey takes a closer look at two of the potential answers in this search for good risk-adjusted returns: private markets and Asian emerging markets. Sofia Santarsiero, Head of Institutional Business Solutions & Innovation, talks to Professor Amin Rajan, CEO of CREATE Research, the co-author of the report, to find out more about how and why pension funds’ attitudes to these two asset classes are changing. They discuss the preferred ways for pension funds to invest and what has been driving, or constraining, allocations. Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.