Special Briefing

Join William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Advisor, and Susan Wachter, Co-Director of Penn IUR and Wharton professor and our expert panel as we address the rapidly darkening outlook for state and local budgets and what this means for policymakers, taxpayers, and investors. Panelists include Jonathan Womer, Director, Rhode Island Department of Administration; Emily Brock, Director, Government Finance Officers Association Federal Liaison Center; Shelby Kerns, Executive Director, National Association of State Budget Officers; Vikram Rai, former Head of Municipal Markets Strategy, Wells Fargo; Teryn Zmuda, Chief Economist, National Association of Counties. As the widely adopted July 1 start of their new fiscal year approaches, many states are facing fiscal challenges that few governors were anticipating as they delivered their annual budget messages only a few months ago. Even though states started 2025 projecting healthy cash reserves of almost $300 billion, that cushion will be tested by the Trump administration's suspension of tens of billions of dollars in U.S. grants as well as potential cuts by Congress to federal Medicaid funds. A possible threat to the federal tax exemption on most municipal bonds, the impact of a global tariff war, and the rising likelihood of a U.S. recession will also further constrain state and local budgets even as several years of record post-COVID federal stimulus comes to an end. Notable Quotes: “Other budget pressures that states are grappling with right now include education and housing affordability. On the revenue side, we have a slowing economy, as well as the impact of tax reductions that have slowed revenue growth.” - Shelby Kerns “State and local governments themselves bear 75% of the cost of infrastructure in this country, and we do that by design. We like to make capital decisions locally. But we need to have the market to underpin those streets, clean water, schools, affordable housing, and so much more.” - Emily Brock “The real difficulty on the operational side for states right now is the uncertainty that’s coming out of Washington. As the [Trump Administration] proposes new executive orders, in particular cuts, and then the courts turn those around in a different way, you’re left with a lot of volatility from an operational perspective, trying to figure out how to plan and strategize going forward.” - Jonathan Womer “Another challenge which I believe is facing the muni market is a liquidity crisis. I worry that we could see more broker-dealer exits from the muni market, which would hamper liquidity very adversely.” - Vikram Rai Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Cities around the world are facing a host of challenges. As the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development observed recently, "places are rethinking how to stay competitive on the global stage. Technological change, the green transition and shifting global value chains are reshaping local economies." Join Eugenie Birch, Co-Director of Penn IUR, and William Glasgall, Penn IUR Fellow and Volcker Alliance Public Finance Advisor, as our panel of current and former global mayors examine what cities should do now to set their future agendas for growth and shared prosperity. Speakers include Steve Adler, former Mayor, Austin, Texas; Stephanie Miner, former Mayor, Syracuse, New York; Nasiphi Moya, Mayor of Tshwane, South Africa; and Jaime Pumarejo Heins, former Mayor of Barranquilla, Colombia. Notable Quotes: “Today, the (Barranquilla) waterfront gets 10 million people visiting a year, from all types of places, from all of the socioeconomic strata of the city. It paid for itself because when we reappraised the land around it, within seven years, we were able to recuperate the investment." - Jaime Pumarejo Heins “As a city, we must be creative about how we fund our needs. We want to ramp up revenue collection, but we don’t want to do that without taking care of the root cause, which is economic growth.” - Nasiphi Moya (Syracuse, New York, is currently facing) “a $27 million deficit—and that’s with a 2 percent tax increase. Normally, when this kind of thing happens, you would turn to the state or even the federal government to ask for help. But given the uncertainty that’s going on with the federal government, and this idea that there’s a recession, there’s not going to be that kind of aid coming through.” - Stephanie Miner (The [Austin, Texas] city council is) “projecting a $13 million shortfall this year, projected to go up to $35 million in the next couple years. We have stagnant sales tax revenue and a property tax revenue constraint imposed by our legislature.” - Steve Adler Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

This Special Briefing is focused on the future of mass transportation under the new Administration and Congress. Our expert panel discusses the upsurge in construction funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law as well as solutions to hundreds of billions of dollars in budgetary shortfalls facing transit networks from coast to coast. Speakers include Leslie Richards, Professor of Practice at the University of Pennsylvania Stuart Weitzman School of Design and former General Manager & CEO of Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), the fifth-largest U.S. transit system; Kurt Forsgren, Managing Director and Sector Lead for Transportation, S&P Global; Randy Iwasaki, President and CEO of Iwasaki Consulting Services, Inc. and former Leader of State and Local Transportation for Amazon Web Services; Polly Trottenberg, who recently served as Deputy Secretary of Transportation under Pete Buttigieg; and David Greising, President and CEO, Better Government Association. Notable Quotes: "All new administrations when they come in, of course, set new policy priorities, but I think this is the first time an administration has tried to cancel or rescope projects in mass that have already been awarded funding through a competitive application process." - Polly Trottenberg "Septa's experienced a huge capital budget crunch as well. And obviously that comes into play with what Polly just described, with the discretionary funds and the uncertainty of what's getting paid out and will get paid out. And what's coming out through formula this year? Septa is facing over a 200 million dollars shortfall." - Leslie Richards "They're preparing for the Olympics. And Mayor Bass has said that the Olympic trips will be not by car. And so they're making a tremendous investment in transit and the airports in LA. I think we have about 85 billion dollars worth of projects ongoing in Region 9, which includes 4 States, and the the only large project that's outside of California is the heart project in Hawaii. So there's investments in California and transit." - Randy Iwasaki "The Democrats, at least on the Illinois Congressional delegation, wrote a letter to the office of management Budget a couple of weeks ago, just simply referencing the the suspension of spending on various programs already approved or anticipated. And they added it up and came up with about 1.9 billion dollars worth of programs." - David Greising "So this sort of strength in taxes and tax support by system operators and by their policymakers and legislators, you know, has been a real strength for credit quality across the sector. In fact, we raised the ratings on about 7 transit operators just in November of last year to reflect the strength and growth that we've seen in this tax support sector." - Kurt Forsgren Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The first Special Briefing of 2025 offers a deep dive into the new President’s first month and the implications of new policies. Featured speakers include former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Jeffrey Holland, Vice President, Research, Peter G. Peterson Foundation; Eric Kim, Senior Director, U.S. Public Finance at Fitch Ratings; Vikram Rai, Fixed Income Strategist, Head of Municipal Markets Strategy at Wells Fargo; Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo; and Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Economics. Notable Quotes: “The implications from a macro perspective could become very, very important for interest rates, especially, of course, if the layoffs begin to show up in the form of a high unemployment rate.” - Torsten Slok. “State and local governments really need to take this moment to do an assessment of how the federal government, federal spending and federal tax policy, even the economic impacts, will affect their budget." - Carolyn Bourdeaux. “So why does that matter? Well, high and rising debts crowd out savings and investment, which could lower future output and income relative to what would otherwise occur." - Jeffrey Holland “Midwestern state economies could be particularly vulnerable to the imposition of blanket tariffs on imports from [Canada, Mexico, and China], and natural resource-rich states could face the most direct consequences from retaliatory tariffs by those nations. North Dakota, Louisiana, and Texas are the states with the most in exports to Canada, Mexico, and China as a percentage of their state GDP.” - Eric Kim “State and local governments realize that they have to rely on their own sources to meet their projects and financing needs." - Vikram Rai “The risks are decidedly to higher interest rates. The biggest risk is that we see a major sell-off in the bond market. The bond market feels incredibly fragile.” - Mark Zandi Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Major policy shifts in immigration, taxes, trade, energy, health care, and pandemic-era programs passed under the Biden Administration look increasingly likely with Donald Trump capturing the White House and his fellow Republicans taking control of both houses of Congress for the first time in two years. Our panel of experts share their views on what this sea change may mean for the economy and Federal Reserve, as well as the impact on states, localities, and the $4 trillion municipal bond market, including the possible elimination of the federal tax exemption on most muni bond interest. Our panel of experts includes Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management; Annie Linskey, Wall Street Journal White House Reporter; Former US Representative Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA); Eric Kazatsky, Head of Municipal Strategy, Bloomberg LP; and Teryn Zmuda, Chief Research Officer and Chief Economist, National Association of Counties (NACo). Notable Quotes: “The short version of what’s happening is that the economy is doing really well. GDP growth for the last two and a half years has continued to surprise from the upside. The big issue in financial markets and policymaking continues to be why did Fed hikes not slow the economy down more, why was GDP growth in the third quarter 2.8, and why is GDP growth in the fourth quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed, going to be 3.3.” - Torsten Slok “The primary program that they (the White House) are working on which impacts states and localities is getting money out of the door for the CHIPS Act. It was a $39 billion program, about $30 billion of that is tied up right now in complicated negotiations between the government and companies, and so the Biden administration is working very hard right now to get those negotiations finished.” - Annie Linskey “This brings me to the DOGE effort, and you have Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy out there pounding their chests about how they are going to make all these dramatic cuts. Well, most of us who have been around the block on budgeting know that it’s really easy to do this in the abstract, but it is very hard to do it when you are actually putting programs on the line.” - Carolyn Bourdeaux “When we’re thinking about the effects of any administration and talking about policy changes, cost cuts could really be cost shifts. Sometimes programs are cut but you do have to think how the effect of that is carried out throughout communities.” - Teryn Zmuda “Right now, state and local payrolls are at the highest levels they’ve been ever. We’ve had a 3% growth since the great financial crisis, and 2% growth since 2019. So, as efficiencies have come into the job market, technology has been embraced even by state and local governments, and payrolls has continued to expand.” - Eric Kazatsky Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The US economy’s extraordinary recovery since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic has continued into the fall of 2025, with inflation retreating and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to keep jobs and investment humming along. Our expert panel discusses where the economy is growing fastest—and less fast—and what this means for state and local budgets and finances. Our panel of experts includes Rochester (Minnesota) Mayor Kim Norton, Georgia State Economist Robert Buschman, Fitch Ratings head of US State ratings Eric Kim, and PIMCO Senior Vice President Tom Schuette. Notable Quotes: “We were very pleased that money came directly to the cities and local jurisdictions, so we didn’t have to go through a lot of time to get it through the state. It was very beneficial to get that money into our communities quickly, starting with ARPA and then the CARES Act funds.” - Mayor Kim Norton “Since the last quarter before the pandemic, Q4 2019, Georgia real GDP growth has run 2.4% per year, on average, slightly better than the 2.3% average for the nation. And though we had our own soft landing in the first half of 2023, we’re up 3.5% since then, compared to 3% for the nation. Job growth has also outpaced the nation for most of the expansion.” - Bob Buschman “Growth coming out of the pandemic has been very robust nationally, so strong in fact that it beats expectations month after month, quarter after quarter, year after year. I think most economists were anticipating a recession for about two years before finally giving up and accepting that the economic growth was simply going to continue, even with the Federal Reserve ratcheting up interest rates above 5%.” - Eric Kim “I think in 20-plus years doing this at a rating agency and also on the buy side, I would argue that I’ve never seen the public sector so well-prepared for any turbulence or volatility on the revenue or expenditure side as they are right now.” - Tom Schuette Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Listen in to this episode of Special Briefing as Bill Glasgall of the Volcker Alliance, Susan Wachter of the Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR), and our panel of experts discuss the year ahead for America’s states and municipalities. Fiscal 2025 will be an especially consequential one, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates for the first time in almost five years as inflation and the economy cool; the impending end of federal emergency pandemic aid; and, of course, the likely consequences of the November presidential and congressional elections. Our panel of experts includes Vikram Rai, head of municipal markets strategy, Wells Fargo; Jane Ridley, managing director and local government sector leader, S&P Global; Matthew Stitt, managing director, PFM's Management and Budget Consulting team, and former CFO, Philadelphia City Council; and Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody’s Analytics. Notable Quotes: “There's much to be optimistic about all the business formation that we've seen since the pandemic hit, and that generally means more innovation and more productivity gains. So if I were a prudent planner I would count on a 10-year treasury yield, which is the benchmark for all of the borrowing of state and local governments, but [I think we will be] somewhere around four to four and a half percent.” - Mark Zandi “S&P is projecting the same kind of expectation in terms of where the national economy is going, so that provides a stable spot for governments. And regardless of whether or not it is a strong economy or a weak one, proactive management and strong governance is really what we see across this sector too.” - Jane Ridley “A lot of local governments have had their sights on the dwindling of federal funds. They’re coming up with newer baselines as we’re starting to see what the recovery of downtown looks like after the pandemic, in terms of buildings and occupancy rates of commercial buildings – some of that is starting to be baked into projections going forward.” - Matt Stitt “There are worries about interest rate volatility or even a rate sell off. Because despite the fact that the cut is very large, the worry is that if inflation comes back because they cut too much too quickly, then there's a rate sell off, and that's why the market has to settle down. So these worries about a great volatility or a sell off could keep investors on the sidelines a little longer.” - Vikram Rai Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

On this episode of Special Briefing, experts discuss the latest Volcker Alliance issue paper, Benefit or Burden: Evaluating $1 Trillion in State Tax Expenditures. The issue paper addresses how US states hand out massive tax breaks every year to advance policy goals, such as aiding low-income families, spurring business investment and job creation, or mirroring the federal tax code. Known broadly as tax expenditures, these exemptions, credits, abatements, and other measures reduce state revenues by an estimated $1 trillion a year, almost three times their 2021 total state expenditures on education. Such tax expenditures, which often suffer from lax government oversight, may be leaving states short on revenue at time when the effects of climate change and the cost of deferred maintenance means that they will need to spend more on infrastructure now and in the decades ahead. Our panel of experts includes one of the issue paper's authors, Matt Fabian, partner, Municipal Market Analytics; as well as Jonathan Ball, legislative fiscal analyst, State of Utah; Tim Bartik, senior economist, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research; and Arlene Martinez, deputy executive director, Good Jobs First. Notable Quotes: “We went into this project expecting a mess. It was much worse than that. We're not even advocating for true, actual public disclosure of the information. We just want states to get their arms around what it is they're doing.” - Matt Fabian “I would also make sure that before you massively fund tax breaks, that you fund infrastructure and job training which evidence suggests is more cost effective in creating jobs than some of these tax breaks. States need to fund more programs where community colleges will train workers for companies so they can make sure they have the labor and the real estate they need.” - Tim Bartik “I was a journalist for many years, reporting a lot on local spending and budgets, and I could see what would happen when communities were strapped for cash. The programs that often got cut were often programs that targeted low-income folks or vulnerable people, because they tended to have less of a voice in the process.” - Arlene Martinez Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Ever since the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US in 2020 led to a surge in people working from home, New York and other big cities have been forced to reckon with the possibility of a Doom Loop scenario of vacant offices and flagging economies. But given the right set of policies, cities can reverse their fortunes and embark upon a path to a Boom Loop of greater productivity and economic growth. Join Special Briefing as the authors of the Volcker Alliance issue paper, Doom Loop or Boom Loop: Work from Home and the Challenges Facing America’s Big Cities, and an expert panel discuss the future economic impacts of remote work. Our panel of experts includes the paper’s authors, David Stanek, vice president, and Richard Voith, founding principal, Econsult Solutions Inc.; as well as Jose Maria Barrero, assistant professor, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de Mexico; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, professor of real estate, Columbia Business School; and Kathryn Wylde, president and chief executive officer, Partnership for New York City. Notable Quotes: “Work from home poses a direct and serious challenge in New York City, especially in the commercial office sector and public transportation, but work from home also potentially offers great opportunities for the city.” - Dick Voith “San Francisco is the ‘poster child’ for a difficult post-pandemic recovery, meanwhile Miami has gained upwards of 100,000 jobs since the pandemic.” - David Stanek “Recently, we've asked a series of qualitative questions in our surveys, asking people about returning to the office. What draws them to the office? Many firms said that they've done several big pushes to return to the office, which I think gives you a sense of how difficult it is for certain organizations, especially in knowledge work industries, to bring their people back,” - Jose Maria Barrero “Employers’ real estate commitment to New York City is extremely positive. More than half are committed to at least maintaining their current footprint, more than 30% have actually increased or anticipate increasing their footprint in the next year, and only 10% are looking at reducing their footprint.” - Kathryn Wylde “We need to convert brown offices to green apartments, in a nutshell. Of course, there are both regulatory and financial obstacles to conversion. We've come to the conclusion that roughly 10% of the office stock is readily convertible based on its physical characteristics. In cities like New York or Chicago, where we have an older office stock, that number is probably closer to 30%.” - Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

While the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law provides $50 billion to upgrade America’s drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems, much more will be needed to address the nation’s water infrastructure needs amid a changing climate and shifts in population. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates the US will need almost $900 billion in water investment over the next twenty years, plus hundreds of billions more for maintenance. These sums will burden federal, state and local budgets but also pose new opportunities—and risks—for investors in water projects. Our panel of experts includes Senator Bill Bradley, former United States Senator, D-NJ; Doug Evanson, executive vice president and chief financial officer, San Antonio Water System; Howard Neukrug, executive director, The Water Center at the University of Pennsylvania; Nicole Lick, senior life scientist, water division, United States Environmental Protection Agency Mid-Atlantic Region; and Reese Tisdale, president and chief executive officer, Bluefield Research. Notable Quotes: “There was bipartisan support for the infrastructure bill, and so this is a matter of modifying and taking that support and moving into something even more critical than roads and bridges –– our supply of water to areas of the country that don't have it.” - Senator Bill Bradley “It's amazing how much the water industry has changed in the last ten years and certainly 20 to 30 years looking back, but the concept of reusing water, particularly in the West and other parts of the world, is… new… it’s a technology that's growing.” - Howard Neukrug “The VISTA Ridge water supply project [in San Antonio] has been recognized nationally as one of the largest public-private partnerships to be constructed in North America....The project is essential for San Antonio meeting its demand requirements in 2023 and could not have been completed without the public-private partnership structure.” - Doug Evanson “Ever since the Clean Water Act, since 1976, federal funding towards the water sector has shifted away from 15% to 5% now. [That funding gap] has been pushed on the local communities and local governments to address the challenges that they face.” - Reese Tisdale “52 years ago, the Clean Water Act resulted in $200 billion in federal water infrastructure investments over a 10-year period, and that investment was incredibly successful in cleaning up our water.... But it also means that our water infrastructure is aging and nearing the end of its lifespan and requires upgrades or replacement.” - Nicole Lick Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Western and southern states including Idaho and Florida were among those growing the fastest from the eve of the pandemic in 2019 through 2022. But there were some surprises as well, with Delaware, Maine, and New Jersey also joining the Census Bureau’s hot growth list. While the ability of many Americans to move to low-tax states and work from home played a large role in the population shift, other factors may have been at play as well. Meanwhile, rapid population expansion poses challenges in many of these states as they cope with enlarging school systems, updating infrastructure, and preparing communities for the impact of extreme weather conditions. Our expert panel explores these issues and what they may portend for state and local finances. Our panel of experts includes New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy; Alex Adams, chief budget officer, state of Idaho; Shatakshee Dhongde, professor of economics, Georgia Institute of Technology; Thomas Doe, president, Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.; and Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management. Notable Quotes: “I use two words: talent and location. Historically, when New Jersey invested aggressively in talent and location, it did well –– and when it didn't –– it did poorly. It's really not a political ideology, it's playing the hand that you were dealt.” - Governor Phil Murphy “But the big picture is: tax revenue is still good, and we still have a good economy… with the little caveat that the cost of borrowing will remain elevated, probably for another six-to-nine months.” - Torsten Slok “A lot of [why we’re growing] is that we are a low-regulated state. This is the least regulated state in the country, we're also a low taxation state… we’re stable financially, and then there's all those intangible benefits and tangible benefits as we have access to outdoor recreation, beautiful lakes, mountains, access to skiing –– things that were really rejuvenating for many people during COVID.” - Alex Adams “We talk a lot about pensions, but here in Texas, there are also going to be increased costs because of the changing climate, whether it's the electricity, water, the airport, or highways. You just are taking abuse from extraordinarily volatile weather conditions that are now commonplace.” - Thomas Doe “A recent report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta showed that the Southeast region, which consists of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, grew around 0.2 percentage points per year faster than the United States in most major metrics of economic performance.” - Shatakshee Dhongde Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

With their revenues and cash reserves at record highs after unprecedented federal aid to offset the impact of COVID-19, dozens of states embarked on the biggest wave of tax cuts in decades, slashing levies by at least $124 billion on everything from personal income to groceries and gasoline. Tune into this Special Briefing as the authors of the forthcoming Volcker Alliance issue paper, State Tax Cuts after the Pandemic: Strategies to Sustain Fiscal Health, and an expert panel discuss whether these reductions can be sustained as revenues have begun to weaken despite the strong US economy. Our panel of experts includes the paper’s authors Can Chen, associate professor, Andrew Young School of Public Policy at Georgia State University (GSU), and Alex Hathaway, senior research associate, Center for State and Local Finance at GSU; as well as Geoffrey E. Buswick, managing director and government sector leader, S&P Global Ratings-US Public Finance; and Natalie Cohen, founder and president, National Municipal Research. Notable Quotes: “When governments use one-time budget surpluses for permanent tax cuts, they may face long term budget challenges. This is why we wanted to specifically look at the long term fiscal implications of permanent expansions of tax cuts.” - Can Chen “States that have opted for permanent tax cuts recently could face depleted safety net funds and less generous aid in the future. Our report proposes four strategies that states can consider going forward when they implement future tax reductions.” - Alex Hathaway “As the paper highlights, thanks to a stronger than projected growth across many revenue streams the past few years and the ability to build the reserves to all time levels — typically well above policy — most states passed tax cuts and relief in some form.” - Geoff Buswick “You never know when that black swan event is going to hit, whether it's climate change or some major crisis in the world, geopolitical issues can rear their heads and suddenly put a state on its back foot in terms of revenue changes.” - Natalie Cohen Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

For America’s states and municipalities, 2024 is likely to bring long-awaited relief from inflation and higher interest rates while presenting challenges—and not just because it’s a presidential election year. States, cities, and counties will have to contend with the imminent end of $350 billion in federal pandemic budget aid even as the revenue boom of recent years cools and the need for increased spending to ameliorate the risks of a changing climate put pressure on infrastructure spending. Listen in as our panel of experts discuss strategies that state and local governments are adopting to meet these challenges. Our panel of experts includes Clarence Anthony, CEO and executive director, National League of Cities; Mayor Kim Norton of Rochester, Minnesota; Mark Ferrandino, director, Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting; Eric Kim, senior director, Fitch Ratings; and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Notable Quotes: “There is a lot on the plates of local leaders, but city leaders are also resilient and optimistic, and they're determined to build their communities back better than ever before, in tandem with their state and federal partners.” - Clarence Anthony “Obviously, there are lots of risks… there are things that can go off the rails, but I will say that for the first time in a long time, the risks are more symmetric.” - Mark Zandi “We're a town of about 124,000 people and we’re home in Minnesota to the state's largest employer, which is the Mayo Clinic, and we are pleased to say that our local economy has rebounded fairly well from the pandemic.” - Mayor Kim Norton “We definitely see some headwinds in terms of revenue for the next year, but long term, we see continued growth. We also see the demand on those revenues and the demand on the state government to just continue to grow.” - Mark Ferrandino “In December, our economics team published its quarterly global economic outlook. And as we were just talking about, 2023 was a surprisingly good year. So good, in fact, that Fitch took off its recession forecast for 2024 in our last update, [and] we were one of those many in the consensus that we're expecting a recession, but we've pulled back on that.” - Eric Kim Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

Many states, counties, and cities emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting recession with record cash reserves following the US government’s injection of $5 trillion to revive the economy and prop up local government budgets. But even after the unprecedented federal support, states and municipalities have been left with more than $1.3 trillion in unfunded liabilities for public employee pension benefits that were promised but are not fully funded. Join our panel of experts as they discuss strategies that state and local governments are adopting to reduce this pension burden and whether they may have to reduce spending for education, infrastructure, and other critical public services to make room for increasing retirement contributions. Our panel of experts includes Liz Farmer, public finance journalist and co-host of the Public Money podcast; Vedanta Goenka, senior municipal strategist, Citigroup; Merl Hackbart, professor emeritus, Martin School of Public Policy and Administration, University of Kentucky; Shoaib Khan, director, New Jersey Treasury Division of Investment; Anthony Randazzo, executive director, Equable Institute; and Les Richmond, vice president and actuary, Build America Mutual. Notable Quotes: “We have a target of approximately 30% of the [pension] portfolio to alternative asset classes,” - Shoaib Khan. “Our top assessment from a 50 state review of data is that funding strategies for public plans have significantly improved whether we look at the last five years or the last 15 years,” - Anthony Randazzo “As far as pension funding is concerned, we–– as Anthony mentioned –– have seen a tremendous improvement in ratios since the pandemic,” - Vedanta Goenka “The adjustments that state and local governments have made to their pension systems in response to pension system concerns, such as adjusting benefits, supplemental funding, and ensuring contributions are meeting their requirements, has demonstrated a commitment to take actions to ensure the sustainability of pension systems,” - Merl Hackbart "So, you might have neighboring towns that have very similar pension profiles — one is carrying a high amount of debt, one is carrying a little amount of debt — I would say the one with a little amount of debt is in much better shape. So it calls for granular analysis [if] we're going to answer the question if pensions are still in crisis.” - Les Richmond “In a lot of places, [pensions are] still very much an issue, but in terms of the national conversation, pensions have definitely kind of taken a step back.” - Liz Farmer Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research invite you to join an online Special Briefing on how the rollout of the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) is proceeding. A critical part of legislation passed by Congress to combat the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and enhance the durability and sustainability of the nation’s infrastructure, the bipartisan deal promises thousands of new jobs and billions of dollars for roads, bridges, public transportation, water systems, and broadband access. Through July, the value of highway and bridge construction work was running 24 percent ahead of the 2020-21 pace, American Road & Transportation Builders data show. But there are bottlenecks as well, and the process of applying for federal grants is confusing, especially for smaller governments. Our panel of experts will sort this out and explain where infrastructure construction is headed. Our panel of experts will include Representative Earl Blumenauer (D-OR); Samantha Silverberg, deputy infrastructure implementation coordinator at The White House; Alison Premo Black, senior vice president and chief economist, American Road & Transportation Builders Association; and Leah Brooks, professor, Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration, George Washington University; Jessica Jennings, legislative director for transportation and infrastructure, National Association of Counties; and Vikram Rai, lead strategist, Wells Fargo municipal division. Notable Quotes: “This is the first time we have a commitment unequivocally to be able to rebuild and renew America. It's a refreshing change and an opportunity for us,” Representative Earl Blumenauer. “The IIJA, or the bipartisan infrastructure law as we call it, is a once-in-a-generation investment in our nation's infrastructure,” Samantha Silverberg. “I can tell you from a market standpoint, for the transportation sector, we're absolutely seeing that program have a very big market impact,” Alison Premo Black. “Most of America's roads are in rural areas, and 70% of counties are rural. We experienced all kinds of challenges when it comes to our small counties. And the biggest one really is our capacity,” Jessica Jennings. “Infrastructure costs more in the U.S. than it does in almost any other country in the world. And you might not be surprised that it costs more in the U.S. than it does in developing countries like China. But you might be surprised to hear that it costs the U.S. substantially more than other countries like Germany or Australia, countries that we think actually have a full suite of environmental protections in the same way that we would like to,” Leah Brooks. “The IIJA aims to put more transportation infrastructure by public-private partnerships. It does so by doubling the amount of availability with the objective to increase P3 (public-private partnerships) funding,” Vikram Rai. Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The Volcker Alliance and Penn Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR) invite you to join an online Special Briefing focusing on whether Federal Reserve moves to slow inflation may result in a recession or soft landing in coming months and how states and localities may be impacted. Our panel of experts includes Zac Jackson, Indiana budget director; Eric Kim, senior director, Fitch Ratings; Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management; Matthew Stitt, director and national lead for equitable recovery and strategic financial initiatives, PFM’s Management and Budget Consulting team, and former CFO, Philadelphia City Council; and Kate Watkins, president and chief economist, Bright Fox Analytics, and former chief economist, Colorado state legislature's Legislative Council Staff. Notable Quotes: “We are seeing delinquency rates going up on credit cards, and auto loans for consumers, and we are seeing default rates going up for high yield companies that are highly leveraged, but we’re still not quite seeing any significant slowdown in the broader economic data.” - Torsten Slok “Regardless of recession or not, there are some important implications for state and local governments when it comes to our revenue streams…” - Kate Watkins “Fitch’s view is that state governments as a whole are in a relatively strong fiscal position because tax collections have been just extraordinary…” - Eric Kim “We took a very responsible approach when it came to using our stimulus funds in order to avoid building fiscal cliffs down the road where the state would have to supplant that one time federal money with ongoing state dollars.” - Zac Jackson “I think when cities are really thinking about their budgets, they're always trying to look ahead to take care of your core expenses, your core services...” - Matt Stitt Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panel discusses the outlook for mass transportation across the US amid waning federal pandemic emergency aid and lagging ridership as metropolitan area commuters continue to work from home. This episode includes a remembrance of our great friend and colleague, Richard Ravitch, the former New York State lieutenant governor, Metropolitan Transportation Authority chairman, Volcker Alliance director, and tireless advocate for fiscally sustainable state and local budgeting, who passed away on June 25. Our panel of experts includes Janno Lieber, chair and chief executive officer, Metropolitan Transportation Authority; former US Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx; Kurt Forsgren, managing director and sector lead for transportation in US Public Finance at S&P Global; Frank Jimenez, senior fiscal policy analyst, California Legislative Analyst's Office; and Leslie Richards, general manager and chief executive officer, Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority. Notable Quotes: “I made the case that it was insane for New York [to not receive funding to avert a fiscal cliff], when 85% of our commuters use mass transit. It was an intense equity issue.” - Janno Lieber “What is clear in the post-COVID era is that the critical role that transit plays is not going to change. We have to rethink how we make decisions. We know that cities, regions and transit are intrinsically related – we know that our futures are tied together; that the stronger a transit system is, the stronger the region it operates in is as well.” - Leslie Richards “Ultimately in the final budget package, the legislature provided $5.1 billion to support transit agencies across the state over a four-year period. This funding is on top of the state’s baseline funding which supports transit agencies and is funded by fuel taxes and vehicle fees.” - Frank Jimenez “Whether that is in the form of sales taxes, or as New York has done with congestion pricing, I think we’re going to have to look at new ways to generate income from local and state sources to support our transit systems.” - Anthony Foxx “Even for transit agencies where we have sales tax or other forms of tax that make up the bulk of revenues, we felt like the ridership loss is likely to impact their operating funds and have ripple effects across their enterprise.” - Kurt Forsgren Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

The panel of experts discusses the fallout for the US economy, states, and municipalities from the recent deal to raise the federal debt ceiling. Our panel of experts includes Matt Fabian, partner, Municipal Market Analytics; Marcia Howard, executive director, Federal Funds Information for States; Annie Linskey, white house reporter, the Wall Street Journal; Vikram Rai, managing director and head of the municipal strategy group, Citigroup; and Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo Global Management. Notable Quotes: “The problem that this debt crisis identified is that talking about cutting spending has revealed a field of landmines, even for Republicans who got to office to cut spending, and find themselves now unable to… If we can’t cut spending, we have to raise taxes to make up for that spending” - Matt Fabian “The way to avoid [future debt ceiling crises] is to have Congress change the law they created in the first place, that requires this debt ceiling dance every few years...” - Annie Linskey “This drama is going to play out again in 2025… Once the US debt defaults, it will set a very unhealthy precedent.” - Vikram Rai “From the financial market perspective, [the debt ceiling debate] is something that is self-inflicted, and something that obviously is creating a lot of volatility…” - Torsten Slok “While we believed that the original legislation paved the way for a very smooth process with incentives to get things done, now we’ve come to believe that recent developments have unraveled that agreement, and that the months ahead are going to be very perilous, complicated, and politically fraught.” - Marcia Howard Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

While the US unemployment rate is near a record low and $5 trillion in federal pandemic aid continuing to support the economy, American cities are enjoying healthy budget surpluses as COVID-19 recedes. But many of the underlying contributors to municipal distress and bankruptcy in the 2010s—underfunded pensions, deteriorating infrastructure, and population loss among them—still pose threats to many cities’ long-term fiscal health. Our panel of experts includes Rob Dubow, director of finance, City of Philadelphia; Heather Gillers, reporter, the Wall Street Journal; Stephanie Miner, former mayor, Syracuse, New York, and director, the Volcker Alliance; Richard Ravitch, former lieutenant governor, New York, and director, the Volcker Alliance; and David Schleicher, professor, Yale Law School. Notable Quotes: “Things could have been much much worse with that ARP funding. We would have had to make even more painful cuts, and those cuts would have been not only bad for the city, but bad for the entire region because we are the economic engine for the region.” - Rob Dubow “You have this pretty significant expense as Chicago and other cities start to go and weather this next period where you have a possible recession. You have the impact of remote work on city revenues, you have the expiration of the federal stimulus aid that was handed out during COVID. So that’s sort of a new chapter in a lot of ways.” - Heather Gillers “Have the same crises facing them once again. And they’re the crisis of, whether you say legacy costs or unfunded liabilities, both pensions and something that nobody really wants to talk about because it is so hugely immense, which is retiree health care. When I was facing this after the Great Recession, Dick Ravich said to me, ‘Kid, it’s not that hard. You either have to cut your expenses or increase your revenues. That’s how you balance a budget.’ But of course, it is extremely difficult.” - Stephanie Miner “We’ve been living through this period of flush state and local budgets, and we’re about to see a real turn. We can use that to look forward, but we can also use that to look backward to say, ‘How good of a boom did we have, and how does that set us up for the coming difficulties?’” - David Schleicher Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.

America’s hottest growth cities and states are facing challenges as they deploy resources to handle the recent pickup of domestic and international immigration to the South and West. US Census data show that Texas and Florida showed a net gain of almost 1 million residents in 2022; they and the rest of the ten fastest-growing states added a total of 1.6 million people. Will this influx help keep these states out of recession? What are the budgetary demands on infrastructure, housing, public safety, education, and the environment, and how will governments tap into recent federal infrastructure legislation? Our panel of experts includes Mayor Steve Adler, former mayor, Austin, Texas; Alex Adams, budget director, Idaho; Matthew D. Chase, chief executive officer and executive director, National Association of Counties; Darryl Martin, county administrator, Dallas County, Texas; and Anna Roach, chief executive officer and executive director, Atlanta Regional Commission. Notable Quotes: “What our approach has been is to assume that a lot of it is one time in nature, so our revenue forecast projects that we’ll have about $5.5 billion in ongoing revenue and we’ve structured our ongoing expenses at $5.1 billion.” - Alex Adams “We built more houses per capita last year than any city in the country and it still wasn’t enough. We’re going to have to do a better job with the land development codes so that we can build more densely and higher in our main community areas within the city.” - Mayor Steve Adler “What we’re also finding is the areas of the country that are really growing tend to be the suburban or exurban areas around these major metropolitan areas. And we’re really starting to see real tension between deploying new clean energy, like solar and wind farms, versus housing development versus agricultural land.” - Matt Chase “We’ve seen a 4% reduction in homelessness this year but we are experiencing an increase in homelessness among our veterans, our youth and our families which I believe is due in part due to the housing affordability crisis.” - Darryl Martin “We are doing innovative things like developing a new concept called Aerotropolis Atlanta that has been successful and has been in the works for many years and it’s been in operation for several years.” - Anna Roach Be sure to subscribe to Special Briefing to stay up to date on the world of public finance. Learn more about the Volcker Alliance at: volckeralliance.org Learn more about Penn IUR at: penniur.upenn.edu Connect with us @VolckerAlliance and @PennIUR on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Special Briefing is published by the Volcker Alliance, as part of its Public Finance initiatives, and Penn IUR. The views expressed on this podcast are those of the panelists and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Volcker Alliance or Penn IUR.