The Outthinking Investor

Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, formulated a theory called the butterfly effect—based on a hypothetical scenario in which a butterfly, simply by flapping its wings, affects a tornado weeks later. The butterfly effect illustrates how small actions in complex systems can lead to big changes, underscoring the challenges in making forecasts. This is particularly relevant for investors. A complex global economy often takes unexpected turns, and macro disruptions and uncertainty present challenges for those navigating financial markets. But with this knowledge, investors could make better decisions by challenging conventional wisdom and taking a long-term view. The Season 5 premiere of The Outthinking Investor explores how investors can steer through economic volatility and pursue sound portfolio construction for the long run. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group’s Global Chief Economist, and Robert Tipp, PGIM Fixed Income’s Chief Investment Strategist, discuss the forces that may drive change in the economy, potential risks to the outlook, how market fears can distract from real long-term consequences, emerging opportunities in fixed-income markets, and structural changes resulting from a higher level of expected interest rates. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com., or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Italy surprised much of the world when it became the first—and only—member of the G7 to join China’s Belt and Road program in 2019. Just four years later, Italy withdrew from the initiative. The about-face served as a microcosm of the geopolitical landscape’s evolution. Policymakers have long viewed the economy through a geopolitical lens. But the overlap between the economy and national security has grown, increasingly becoming the focus of today’s geopolitical fractures amid global competition over trade, technology and defense. This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores the ways in which nations are balancing economic and security priorities, and how investors can leverage geopolitical analysis to make informed portfolio decisions in a changing world. Our guests are Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense and author of “A Sacred Oath: Memoirs of a Secretary of Defense During Extraordinary Times”; Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, former Dean of the Stanford School of Business and co-author of “Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World”; and Magdalena Polan, PGIM Fixed Income’s Head of Emerging Markets Macroeconomic Research. Topics include the three main forces affecting the global economy, how national defense is influencing economic policy, the geopolitical factors impacting trade flows and emerging markets, and whether the peace dividend is evaporating. To learn more about the macroeconomic and investment implications of geopolitical risks, explore PGIM’s 2024 Global Risk Report, Resilient Investing Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty, at PGIM.com. Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com.

The use of economic statecraft is on the rise. With rivalries among major economies intensifying, countries are increasingly employing tariffs, sanctions and subsidies, contributing to a global realignment in trade flows. Meanwhile, elections in the US and Europe portend new debates over taxes, government spending, and the right fiscal formula to support growth and productivity. In the US, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s tax reductions for individuals are due to expire in 2025, setting the stage for another round of changes to the tax code. Europe faces difficult budget choices amid calls for the bloc to double down on industrial policy and implement capital markets reforms to boost growth—the subject of a highly anticipated report from Mario Draghi. In the face of rapid economic changes and a shifting political landscape, investors need to consider how fiscal policies will influence the evolving investment outlook. Glenn Hubbard and Jason Furman, former Chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, join PGIM Fixed Income’s Lead Geopolitical Analyst Mehill Marku in this episode of The Outthinking Investor. The discussion covers major economic challenges facing policymakers, the effects of tariffs on inflation, trade flows, and the broader economy, and the future of U.S. tax policies. Additionally, they explore efforts to boost Europe’s economic competitiveness, the importance of remaining vigilant against potential market shocks, and investment strategies to mitigate risks from fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.

The “year of democracy” holds the potential to bring profound change to global politics, economic policy, and the investment environment. By the end of 2024, more than five dozen countries, accounting for nearly half of the world’s population, will elect new leaders. Elections in Europe, including the UK, France, Germany and European Union, have already yielded both expected and surprising results. The US presidential election in November, as well as key congressional races, also could create significant policy changes—both expected and unexpected—during the next administration, no matter who wins the White House. For investors, the challenge lies in identifying the impact of elections on financial markets. How are 2024’s elections going to change the investment outlook? This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a closer look at elections around the world, the issues most important to voters, the challenges that political leaders face, and election season’s potential short- and long-term implications for investors. Our guests are Jeanne Sheehan Zaino, professor of political science and international studies at Iona University and author of “American Democracy in Crisis”; Morris Fiorina, Wendt Family Professor at Stanford University and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution; and Taggart Davis, Vice President of Government Affairs at PGIM.

Cities have faced a host of challenges over the course of history, such as affordable housing, transportation, public safety and economic opportunities. In today’s rapidly changing global economy, these challenges are becoming increasingly complex, with cities needing to adapt to technological advancements, climate risks, and fluctuating fiscal policies. The most successful cities are dynamic and adapt to changing circumstances. Consider Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as a prime example. Once known for its manufacturing might, Pittsburgh had to reinvent itself after the collapse of the steel industry in the 1980s. The Steel City successfully mounted a turnaround by becoming an innovation hub, thanks to a strong academic presence and low cost of living that attracted technology and healthcare employers. What lessons can cities draw from urban transformations of the past? This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores the role investors will play in solving many of the challenges that cities face. With opportunities emerging across real estate, infrastructure, technology and more, institutional investors are already providing much of the capital needed to fund urban development. Edward Glaeser, economics professor at Harvard University and co-author of “Survival of the City: Living and Thriving in an Age of Isolation”; Jeff Speck, partner at the urban planning and design firm Speck Dempsey; and Cathy Marcus, Co-CEO and Global COO of PGIM Real Estate, discuss the evolution of cities, the challenges they must overcome, and emerging opportunities for investors. To hear more from PGIM, tune into our new podcast, Speaking of Alternatives, hosted by Eric Adler, President and CEO of PGIM Private Alternatives. Speaking of Alternatives is available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

In the middle of the Great Depression, President Franklin Roosevelt spearheaded the creation of Social Security, forever changing the US retirement system and how Americans think about long-term savings. Only a few pensions existed at the time, and Social Security was the first government-backed program to provide for the basic welfare of all seniors. The retirement landscape in the US—and around the world—has no doubt undergone massive change since the days of FDR. DC plans have significantly improved the retirement outlook, and an estimated 54.3% of American families now participate in some form of retirement plan such as a 401(k) or IRA, according to a 2022 survey by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, seniors still rely on Social Security payments, yet the Congressional Budget Office has forecast that Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors’ Insurance Trust Fund will be depleted in 2033. Building retirement security for generations to come will require not only a solution to the Social Security funding crisis, but continued support for the broader retirement savings system. How can policymakers address Social Security’s challenges without weakening private retirement savings? In this episode, The Outthinking Investor speaks to three experts about retirement readiness, how governments and employers alike help workers save for retirement, and policy prescriptions for the challenges that lie ahead. Our guests are Dennis Simmons, Executive Director of the Committee on Investment of Employee Benefits Assets (CIEBA); Andrew Biggs, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former Deputy Commissioner of the Social Security Administration; and Mike Miller, Head of PGIM DC Solutions. To cultivate rich conversations around complex investment topics, The Outthinking Investor features speakers with diverse points of view. Participating on the podcast does not imply endorsement of other speaker's opinions, nor does PGIM necessarily endorse the opinions of its external guests. To hear more from PGIM, tune into our new podcast, Speaking of Alternatives, hosted by Eric Adler, President and CEO of PGIM Private Alternatives. Speaking of Alternatives is available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Harry Markowitz, the legendary economist and father of modern portfolio theory, has been credited with saying that diversification is the only free lunch in investing. However, his work on the efficient frontier shows that investors give up expected returns to lower expected risk. This may make diversification even more compelling. With uncertainty becoming a prevailing theme in financial markets and the global economy, focusing on the benefits on diversification could prove valuable for investors. The 60-40 portfolio may have lost its luster in the broad market selloff of 2022, but allocating across a diverse mix of assets is crucial in the long run. This episode of The Outthinking Investor dives into the topic of asset allocation and the role of stocks, bonds and alternatives in a diversified portfolio. Our guests are Antti Ilmanen, Global Co-Head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management and author of “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least”; Scott Cederburg, associate professor of finance at the University of Arizona and co-author of a research paper titled “Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice”; and Lorne Johnson, Head of Multi-Asset Portfolio Design at PGIM Quantitative Solutions. To hear more from PGIM, tune into our new podcast, Speaking of Alternatives, hosted by Eric Adler, President and CEO of PGIM Private Alternatives. Speaking of Alternatives is available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms.

Millions of college students across the US graduate each spring and enter the workforce. When today’s retirees entered the workforce in the early 1980s, pension plans and Social Security benefits were two of the main sources of retirement income. Just a couple decades later, defined benefit (DB) plans were overtaken by defined contribution (DC) plans such as 401(k)s, and an aging population was slowly depleting the Social Security Trust Fund. This was a massive shift in a relatively short period of time, and it forever changed one of the most important and challenging aspects of personal finance. Workers are facing another pivotal moment in retirement saving, especially as higher interest rates change the investment landscape. What’s increasingly clear is that employer-based plans will play a crucial role in helping people financially prepare for retirement. This episode of The Outthinking Investor brings together fresh perspectives on the future of DC and DB plans in a higher-rate environment, expanding investment options in retirement plans, retirement challenges arising from an aging workforce and growing debt, and more. Our guests are Barb Marder, CEO of the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI); Brooke Masters, US financial editor of the Financial Times; and Josh Cohen, Head of Client Solutions for PGIM DC Solutions. For more retirement insights, listen to The Accidental Plan Sponsor, a podcast series from PGIM DC Solutions.

The stock market crash of 1929 was a pivotal event that rippled across the globe. The Great Crash rocked financial markets, not to mention the world economy, and proved to be a precursor to the Great Depression. The sudden selloff wiped out the fortunes of investors who were ill prepared to ride out a bear market. Today, investors must heed the lessons from volatile markets of the past and take stock of hidden risks that may reveal themselves as current market conditions evolve. What strategies can investors employ to mitigate downside risks in their portfolios? This episode of The Outthinking Investor examines risk through the lens of alternatives. Experts discuss the challenges investors face in making the right decisions for their portfolios, taking a holistic view of diversification, and the role that alts can play in both managing risk and capturing opportunities that emerge from volatility. Hear from Victor Haghani, founder and CIO of the wealth advisory firm Elm Wealth and co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management; and Ryan Kelly, Head of Special Situations for PGIM Fixed Income.

Some medical breakthroughs come from unexpected sources. The origins of new weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic—known in the industry as GLP-1s—can be traced back to 2005, when they were introduced as a treatment for diabetes. Two decades later, these drugs have seemingly burst onto the medical scene, gaining notoriety for their ability to help people lose weight and the potential implications for a variety of other business sectors. This “Ozempic effect” serves as an important lesson for investors: Healthcare innovations often have a cascading impact on the economy and their portfolios. With the healthcare industry working overtime on the next big breakthrough, identifying future winners in the medical field will lead investors to new opportunities. The Outthinking Investor gathered insights from experts in the healthcare space to dig deeper into the future of medical innovations and how consumer behavior could change with the rise of weight-loss drugs. Our guests in this episode are Daniel Matviyenko, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Jennison’s healthcare strategies; Scott Swanson, Principal and Credit Analyst at PGIM Fixed Income; and Tim Dall, a health economist and Executive Director at GlobalData.

A storm may be brewing off the coast. It is not a new concern for investors, but its intensity has grown. The US federal government owes more than $34 trillion—and counting. This level of debt has the potential to wreak havoc, even for the world’s largest economy. Government debt has grown in other parts of the globe as well, and debt held by consumers and businesses can also pose economic risks. With a tsunami of debt lurking in the distance, investors must take stock of the potential ramifications if it ever crashes onto the shore. This episode of The Outthinking Investor addresses the economic challenges associated with an increasing debt burden, the impact on inflation, interest rates and financial markets, and fiscal policy prescriptions that could help bring the debt under control. Randal Quarles, former Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve; Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; and Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist for PGIM Fixed Income, join the podcast to give a unique perspective on the intersection of debt, fiscal policy and financial markets.

Industrial policy is making a comeback in the West. The US, Europe and other governments have introduced new incentives to the private sector in hopes of bringing supply chains closer to home, boosting domestic industries, and building strategic advantages in key technologies such as semiconductors and EVs. But success is not guaranteed. Can governments pick winners and losers? Do the potential benefits of industrial spending, such as driving innovation and economic growth, outweigh the consequences of higher debt and interest rates? This episode of The OUTThinking Investor gathered insights from three experts on economics and fiscal policy to help investors assess how industrial strategies will affect financial markets and the global economy. Our guests are Paul Romer, economics professor at Boston College and former Chief Economist at the World Bank; Simon Johnson, professor at MIT Sloan School of Management and co-author of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity; and Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics and Chief European Economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

In this environment of uncertainty, it's more important than ever for investors to think outside the box. Welcome to The Outthinking Investor, an award-winning podcast from PGIM that examines past events, present-day opportunities, and future possibilities across global capital markets. In Season 4, hosted by Toby Ricketts, experts from PGIM and the investment world bring unique perspectives as we explore a fast-changing landscape of investment opportunities and risks. Join us as we take a deep dive into the portfolio implications of a changing world.

The invention of the spinning jenny in 1764 upended the textile industry—and the women who earned a living weaving cotton and preparing fabrics in their homes. Suddenly, these jobs became obsolete. Just as the industrial revolution had a profound impact on how people worked and lived, structural forces are transforming global labor markets today, from slowing globalization to the advent of generative AI. The evolution of labor markets is poised to reshape the macro landscape in the years to come, posing broad implications across the investment portfolio. In this episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we talk to three experts about the transformation of labor markets, the economic impact, and how investors can identify leaders and laggards as the world embarks on a new era of work. Our guests are Greg Wright, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Merced and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Zeynep Ton, a professor at MIT Sloan and author of the book The Case for Good Jobs: How Great Companies Bring Dignity, Pay and Meaning to Everyone’s Work; and Jakob Wilhelmus, Director of Thematic Research at PGIM. For more on this topic, visit PGIM.com to explore our Megatrends report, The Transformation of Labor Markets: Winners and Losers in a New Era.

In one of Rembrandt’s famous paintings, Storm on the Sea of Galilee, a ship’s crew struggles to navigate through an epic storm thrashing the ship. But toward the stern, Jesus sits calmly. This image graced the cover of Peter Bernstein’s classic book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. So what can investors take away from a classic piece of Renaissance art? Market shocks can emerge suddenly and in unexpected ways. Mitigating the impact of these risks is no doubt challenging when they are difficult to predict. Still, investors need a gameplan. This episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor delivers fresh perspectives on potential risks to financial markets and explores strategies that agile investors can employ to protect their portfolios against the known and unknown. Joining us to discuss this topic are Scott Patterson, Wall Street Journal reporter and author of Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis; and Ethan Wu, Financial Times reporter and host of the Unhedged podcast.

Fans of the long-running game show Jeopardy will remember that one famous contestant stood out from the rest. IBM’s supercomputer, named Watson, beat two human opponents in a 2011 competition that brought artificial intelligence into the spotlight. More than a decade later, AI has taken a giant leap forward. Generative AI, made popular by the launch of ChatGPT, has already made its impact felt on the investment world, and it appears poised to shake up the modern economy as businesses find new ways of utilizing the technology. The next generation of AI presents new possibilities for the way people live, work and invest. This episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor explores a future reimagined by generative AI, from its business applications and social impact to the investment opportunities and risks across sectors. Guests David Ferrucci, the former project lead for Watson and founder of Elemental Cognition; Gillian Tett, US editor-at-large for the Financial Times; and Erika Klauer, portfolio manager of the technology fund at Jennison Associates, bring their unique perspectives to the topic of AI and how investors can prepare for what is to come.

Ever since the oil crisis of the 1970s and the creation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the United States has held millions of barrels of oil in a stockpile to safeguard the country—and its economy—from future supply shocks. Just as oil has kept the world’s economic engine running, a new critical component has emerged: the microchip. Everything from satellites and missiles to cars and toasters are powered by chips, making the semiconductor industry a linchpin of both the global economy and national security. The recent chip shortage affected virtually every industry, revealing a new vulnerability that businesses and policymakers are scrambling to address. Chris Miller, associate professor at Tufts University and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, and Dennis Lockhart, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, join this episode of The OUTThinking Investor to examine the global competition to fortify supplies of semiconductors. They discuss the role of geopolitics in chip production, how artificial intelligence is driving innovation and demand, and macroeconomic implications for investors to consider. For more on the near-shoring of strategic industries, visit PGIM’s OUTFront report, A New Era: From Deglobalization to Regionalization.

From growing rice on Mars to developing new farming techniques here on Earth, the future of food is rapidly evolving. The global food system—spanning farms, factories, grocery stores and more—is a complex network that has far-reaching economic implications. It is also inefficient and increasingly unfit for purpose, encouraging innovation across the value chain that will give rise to attractive investment opportunities. In the newest episode of PGIM’s The OUTThinking Investor, we take a deep dive into the world of food and its portfolio implications—whether seeking opportunities or mitigating hidden risks. Three experts provide unique perspectives on technological efforts to make food production more sustainable and efficient, the impact of inflation and recent shocks to the food system, China’s role in the supply chain, and how a growing population is driving demand. Joining us are agricultural and development economist Chris Barrett from Cornell University, Council on Foreign Relations fellow Zoe Zongyuan Liu, and PGIM Head of Thematic Research Shehriyar Antia. For more on this topic, explore PGIM’s Megatrends research, Food for Thought, at www.pgim.com/food.

Watch the video version of this episode by visiting www.pgim.com/david-rubenstein. Private markets represent a fast-growing asset class with unique opportunities for investors. The growth of private equity in particular has transformed the investment landscape over the last several decades. Private equity assets more than doubled over the course of a decade to reach $11.5 trillion by 2021. David Rubenstein, co-founder of The Carlyle Group, has played a prominent role in the evolution of private equity. His work beyond Carlyle is just as monumental—from advocating for broader investor and civic education to preserving historical treasures and landmarks. In this episode, Rubenstein joins David Hunt, PGIM’s President and CEO, for a wide-ranging conversation about private equity and alternative investing, inflation and the probability of a recession, the future of globalization, and philanthropy. They also discuss traits that great investors share, including a propensity to go against conventional wisdom.

This is the final installment of a two-part episode in which we further examine what sparked the latest bank crisis and whether it was a canary in the coal mine. Robert Armstrong, US financial commentator and writer of Unhedged for the Financial Times, and John Cochrane, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and author of The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, join us to discuss the implications of banking fragilities, keeping a long-term investment horizon amid market volatility, and how swelling government debts could set the stage for new market risks. For more on this topic, visit our bank crisis hub to explore views from across PGIM.