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59: A Hard Border from History

Keynes and Bown talk with Stephen Redding (Princeton University) about his research on the border between East and West Germany erected in the mid-20th century. They discuss the loss of market access for cities near the border, and how being cut off from one's neighbors affected the local economy. Spoiler: It wasn't pretty.


58: Woodward. Trump. Fear. Trade Is Bad.

Keynes and Bown talk with best-selling author and Pulitzer Prize–winning investigative journalist Bob Woodward about his latest book Fear: Trump in the White House. From snatching trade agreement withdrawal letters off the president's desk to impromptu Oval Office meetings with steel company CEOs, Woodward's reporting helps shed light on whether this White House has a trade policy strategy or is simply lurching from one set of tariffs to another.


57: It's Fun to Discuss the USMCA--the New NAFTA

Keynes and Bown describe key elements of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, or USMCA, announced on October 1, 2018. Beneath the spin, they analyze what the deal really does, including where new market access has been granted, and where new rules have been written. Will the new deal generate American jobs in car manufacturing? Will it strengthen Mexico's labor standards? Will it stop Canada from signing a future trade deal with China?


56: Do You Like Trade? Tariffs? Trade Deals? China?

Keynes and Bown speak with Bruce Stokes (Pew Research Center) about recent poll results on public attitudes toward trade. They discuss how Americans feel about trade and trade agreements, China, differences between self-identified Democrats and Republicans, as well as attitudes in other countries toward the United States.


55: Is India a Trade Troublemaker?

Keynes and Bown speak with Arvind Subramanian (PIIE, Harvard Kennedy School) about the massive changes in India's trade policy since the 1980s. They examine the scope and impact of India's trade liberalization; the importance of its manufacturing, agriculture, and services trade; its controversies within the WTO, and its own complex relationship with China. They also discuss Arvind's time as chief economic adviser to the government of India and some of the challenges now confronting the...


54: Can Trump Withdraw from Trade Deals?

Keynes and Bown examine the legal arguments surrounding President Trump's threats to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization. They speak with legal experts Gary Hufbauer (PIIE), Rachel Brewster (Duke Law School), and Joel Trachtman (Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy) about what constitutional arguments and legal precedent might—and might not—constrain a president from taking such an action without the approval of Congress.


53: Oh NAFTA--It's Canada's Turn

Keynes and Bown examine critical economic issues caught up in Canada's talks with the Trump administration over the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement. They speak with Meredith Lilly (Carleton University) and Madelaine Drohan (The Economist) about Canada's dairy supply management system, requests for cultural exemptions, protection of intellectual property for biologics, demands to retain Chapter 19, and attempts at export diversification in light of costs to being dependent...


52: NAFTA "Deal Fever"

Keynes and Bown examine the still murky details on autos and a potential sunset clause for the Mexico–United States trade agreement—which the Trump administration says is designed to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). They also discuss what's next for the negotiations with Canada as well as how economists would evaluate whether any final deal is actually a good one.


51: Trade at the White House in Not So Normal Times

Keynes and Bown have a conversation with Jason Furman (PIIE, Harvard Kennedy School)—a former senior economic adviser of the Obama administration—about American economic policy. They ask Furman about economic and trade policy during the Great Recession, supporting displaced workers, US trade policy toward China, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and President Trump's approach.


50: Aluminum Made in the USA

Keynes and Bown explore the aluminum industry: how to make it, changes in North American production over the past few decades, and the industry's real complaints. They discuss the Trump administration's tariffs on imported aluminum with Heidi Brock of the American Aluminum Association, and Delphine Dahan-Kocher of Constellium.


49: Are Trump's Steel Quotas Worse than His Steel Tariffs?

Keynes and Bown describe how the Trump administration's quotas imposed on steel imports from South Korea, Brazil, and Argentina are different from the simple application of tariffs. They speak with Ambassador Jennifer Hillman—former administrator of US quotas for textiles and apparel in the 1990s—and Aaron Padilla (American Petroleum Institute) to explain the structure of Trump's quotas, the perverse economic incentives and unintended consequences they create, and the new difficulties facing...


48: Trump Buys the Farmers

Keynes and Bown explain the US government decision to offer up to $12 billion of subsidies to farmers adversely affected by trade retaliation stemming from President Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum, and China. They speak with Joe Glauber (IFPRI, former USDA) about US farm subsidies past and present, including the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act, as well as America's legal commitments under the WTO to limit agricultural payouts.


47: WTO S.O.S.--Save our System

Keynes and Bown detail an emerging approach for the European Union, Japan, China—and the Trump administration—to resolve the conflict over subsidies, one of the most pressing challenges confronting the World Trade Organization. They explain the fight over industrial subsidies and analyze the EU-Japan-US approach to tackling problems of notifications, state-owned enterprises, excess capacity, and public bodies.


46: How Do Trump's Tariffs Stack Up Historically?

Keynes and Bown compare President Donald Trump's tariffs imposed to date—on solar panels, washing machines, steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports—with other major American protectionist episodes. They speak to economic historian Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE) about the Reagan administration's protectionism in the 1980s, the 1971 Nixon shock, the 1960s US-Europe chicken war, and the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff.


45: Zeroing: The Biggest WTO Threat You've Never Heard Of

Keynes and Bown explain the outsized importance of "zeroing"—a technical, yet politically controversial method the United States uses to calculate antidumping tariffs. They speak to Thomas Prusa (Rutgers University) about zeroing's contentious negotiating history, how it works in practice, who is in favor of it, and how much trade is affected by it. They also discuss how the dozens of WTO disputes the United States has lost over this issue set up the current showdown facing the WTO Appellate...


44: Brexit Two Years On

Keynes and Bown explain recent developments in the UK-EU trade talks on Britain's departure from the European Union. At the two-year mark after the June 23, 2016 Leave referendum, they speak to Anand Menon (King's College London) and Allie Renison (Institute of Directors) about progress in agreeing to a trade deal, outstanding issues, and lingering uncertainty facing UK businesses.


43: Costing Trump's China Tariffs

Keynes and Bown explain some implications of President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on US imports from China starting July 6, 2018, which could escalate to cover $450 billion of American imports. They speak to Mary E. Lovely (PIIE) and Simon Rabinovitch (The Economist) about which companies will be affected and how China might retaliate beyond tit-for-tat tariffs.


42: Trump and Tariff Tweets: It's More Complicated Than That

Bown and Keynes explain the nonreciprocal pattern of tariffs—and nontariff barriers—across countries highlighted by President Trump's tweets and statements about high levels of tariff protection received by Canadian dairy farmers, automakers in Europe and China, and more.


41: Trump and China's "War of Saliva"

Bown and Keynes update developments in the Trump administration's on-again, off-again trade war, and trade negotiations with China. They also speak to a number of people in Beijing to better understand the Chinese views.


40: Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: Trump versus Everyone

Bown and Keynes explain the economic implications of President Trump's decision to apply steel and aluminum trade restrictions on virtually all US trading partners as of June 1, 2018. Countries have announced their plans to retaliate against billions of dollars of US exports, to file WTO trade disputes, and to potentially impose restrictions on their own imports of steel and aluminum.