Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner commenting on the stock market's breakout to new all-time highs. With earnings estimates, earnings reports, and sentiment shifting higher the market looks forward. Did investors get too bearish? Looking at Tesla's upcoming earnings via their implied volatility and 1-standard deviation expected move higher or lower. All this and more this week. Yup, we are back at all-time highs 7000 the new floor in the S&P 500 Index? Earnings analysts raise estimates again So far so good earnings season Tesla implied volatility shows what the expected range through earnings is Did investors get too bearish, causing them to miss out by selling at the recent bottom? Why its difficult to time markets Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to discuss the all-time low in consumer sentiment and what if anything it means for markets. By the way, who exactly are they getting to stay on the phone for 50 questions? Then they discuss Exxon vs Salesforce performance since the CRM replaced XOM in the Down Jones Index. Plus, secular bull markets have pullbacks so are we still in one now? Consumer confidence all-time low Does Consumer Sentiment indicator from UMich forecast stock movements? Semiconductor forward earnings growth is predicted to be strong S&P 500 Index earnings seasons is upon us Exxon got replaced by Salesforce in the Down but since then CRM is trailing XOM Geopolitical volatility Why the Fed probably still cuts and the stock market is seeing through the clutter US Dollar Index peeled back from recent highs so is that good for earnings? Sarcastic discussion on who the heck is answering survey calls Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at the bull case vs. the bear case in markets. Plus, which company the gang is most looking forward to seeing what their earnings release shows and how the big tech names are all cheaper on a forward valuation basis. Why doesn't the market always go up when earnings grow? Now people are tracking sailings in the Strait of Hormuz. Later, examining whether Friday's recovering from a rough open is a good sign for markets or just an anomaly. Strait of Hormuz ship tracking Earnings growth vs the market return in a given year Odd to see the market down while earnings revisions have grown positively +8% Nvidia vs Microsoft for who everyone is most looking forward to earnings wise SpaceX files for an IPO but we'll have to wait on the S-1 release Market bull and bear case Mentioned in this Episode Article with Peter Lynch video link plus forward valuation charts on the market, Nvidia, and Exxon. https://zegainvestments.com/blog/is-the-market-getting-cheaper-or-just-early-ahead-of-analyst-revisions Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509 Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how the news sounds worse than the markets have performed so far. What Peter Lynch famous 1994 speech tells us about market declines and corrections. Plus, really? The Fed Funds futures are now pricing in higher probability of rate hikes vs rate cuts. Finally, the Mag 7 seems to be on sale, so what needs to happen for them to start leading the market back to the highs? Peter Lynch on market corrections Mag 7 valuations are getting cheap relative to where they were Fed Rate hikes, really? Volatility in markets Why is the VIX higher? The news is worse than the markets retracement so far, but will that change? Mentioned in this Episode Article with Peter Lynch video link plus forward valuation charts on the market, Nvidia, and Exxon. https://zegainvestments.com/blog/is-the-market-getting-cheaper-or-just-early-ahead-of-analyst-revisions Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509 Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner where they get into a discussion around the market moving lower, lowering the forward PE, and analysts haven't budged their estimates yet. So, who's right and who's wrong? Then they go through the volatility environment and whether this is a normal midterm year pullback reminding everyone this is pretty typical. Later, they get into Arizona suing Kalshi and whether prediction markets (or betting) belong under the CFTC. Vix and VVIX Volatility in markets CFTC as regulator of prediction markets Who needs prediction markets? Arizona sues Kalshi Forward PE multiples drop While EPS forward estimates rise When will analysts start adjusting their EPS estimates? What are breakeven inflation rates Why breakeven rates historically haven't been a great predictor of future inflation Mentioned in this Episode Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509 Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss how a strong dollar, high oil prices, and the normal midterm year market cycle are dominating the talk around the stock market. If there was no Iran conflict, would the market be in the same spot? Later, looking at the options markets on Micron before next week's earnings. Finally, why the Strait of Hormuz is causing supply issues. Straight of Hormuz oil tanker conundrum Oil and the US Dollar jump and why it may not be good news for earnings Implied Volatility on Micron Pricing the long and short straddles on Micron Midterm Year Market Cycles and how this compares Talking about the movies Margin Call and The Big Short Mentioned in this Episode Podcast Explaining The Big Short Movie & Credit Default Swaps https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-big-short-movie-credit-default-swaps-explained/id1432836154?i=1000465683509 Margin Call Movie and VaR Value at Risk Explained https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XJ58KAoQKw2sdC48KHyPp Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to riff on volatility surging including VIX and VVIX. What volatility changes mean to market makers having to sell or buy more shares to hedge. Later, examine the largest 1 week surge in oil historically and where last week ranks. Plus, asking if OpenAI will wind up being the winner or more like Netscape. All this and more this week. OpenAI vs other AI companies as the eventual winner Explaining what VVIX is in relation to the VIX Why changes in volatility cause market makers to have to sell or buy shares of underlying Energy sector was the contrarian pick hiding in plain site Green shoots that this selloff will end? The Fed and interest rates Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to explain how the market just got cheaper on a forward valuation standpoint. Plus, how Nvidia EPS estimates reached a new all-time high while the stock trends sideways. Later, comparing Salesforce and Exxon, where they look at a multiple expansion vs a multiple contraction. Finally, they delve into an increase in the near-term volatility skew, and the hot PPI numbers. What is volatility skew Salesforce vs Exxon Nvidia goes sideways even though earnings and sales estimates reach new highs What does it me when stocks forward multiples contract (rerate) Getting into the PPI release Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the market reaction. Plus, looking at what the options market is predicting for Nvidia post earnings moves. Later, WTI oil prices moving higher, did the energy sector bull run predict this? Finally, breaking down the GDP release and whether the baring the government shutdown, GDP would have been higher. All this and more this week. GDP release and breakdown No inflation from tariffs Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs What other justifications Trump admin can use to still impose tariffs WTI West Texas Intermediate crude price catches a bid Nvidia earnings this week come out so what is the option market predicting? Nvidia implied volatility and straddle prices Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI release and how there isn't any evidence that tariffs are causing any issues with inflation. So, does this mean the Fed has a green light to cut rates? As the market broadens, you might be surprised what sectors are leading and hint, it's not tech. CPI Inflation report No inflation from tariffs Fed interest rate cuts Mag 7 passes the baton to energy, materials, and staples Nvidia earnings are coming up so what does the implied volatility say at this point? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to chat about the meltdown in bitcoin and Strategy (MicroStrategy $MSTR). Why would investors choose MSTR over just Bitcoin? The enterprise value vs market value of its Bitcoin holdings. Later, The Mag 7 aren't all acting alike as Apple is surging while Microsoft is in a bear market. Later, is volatility too high given we are so close to the previous all-time high in the S&P 500 Index? Bitcoin vs Strategy Bitcoin melts down Strategy $MSTR enterprise value vs the value of its Bitcoin holdings Apple vs Microsoft Why would an investor who likes Bitcoin buy $MSTR vs owning $IBIT? VIX hits 23 but was that an overreaction given we are so close to ATH? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to discuss the parabolic moves in silver and gold including the record amount of trading. Plus, was PPI a big deal or no problem? Later, looking at the forward valuations of Walmart vs Nvidia in a hypothetical game of which one would you rather hold? You could also flip a coin which would be as good as any analysis. Meanwhile, earnings estimates have ticked higher while the S&P 500 Index moved lower, illustrating a multiple contraction in the forward PE ratio. Silver and Gold go parabolic Record trading volumes in silver and gold Forward EPS estimates tick higher in the S&P 500 Index PPI Producer Price Index was lower in 2025 than 2024 so why the angst? Walmart vs Nvidia forward PE ratios Why is Walmart trading at a higher valuation than Nvidia? Is AI the reason Walmart is bid up on a valuation measure? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about how it seems every metal is surging including Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, and what else? Plus, Shane reports on the options conference and record option volumes. Oh, and did the market and volatility overreact to Greenland? It lasted all of one day. Oh, we have a big earnings week coming so what is the options market predicting for earnings moves? Big earnings week Implied volatility of most of the Mag 7 pre-earnings Record options contract volumes Greenland market event that lasted all of one day Volatility goes up and comes right back down Palladium, Copper, Gold, Platinum, and Silver all moving Bonds vs Gold Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether the tariffs matter to the market anymore. Plus, energy stocks break out even though oil is still below $60. Later, how we continue to see broadening in participation of the bull market beyond the mag 7 stocks. Of course, earnings season is starting and in the end earnings matter above all else. Earnings matter in the long run XOM Exxon some back Energy stocks no longer hibernating How stocks can do well even if the underlying commodity isn't Commodity next boom? Does the Fed theoretically use taxpayer funds for their expenses? Will Powell leave the Fed when his term as chair ends (but not his governor term) Different pockets of the market still running Mag 7 trailed through April then led, not that gap is closing Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about whether higher valuations are warranted based on rising profit margins. Then, they think about whether the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs matters for the market. Later, they discussed Google passing Apple for the #2 highest valued company in the S&P 500 Index, midterm election years performance vs other years, regression channels in the S&P 500 Index, payroll numbers, interest rates, and even copper prices. Midterm year performance vs other presidential cycle years Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs and what it means for markets Copper prices are about to break out or break down? Fed interest rates saying no cuts until after Powell leaves? Semiconductor earnings estimates vs the S&P 500 Index as a whole Polymarket sees only a 25% chance tariffs are upheld Google (Alphabet) surpasses Apple to be world #2 behind Nvidia Three-Month payroll contraction on nonfarm payrolls Talking technical analysis with regression channels on the SPX Free cash flow margins tech vs the rest Valuation forward pe ration adjusted for net profit margins S&P 500 companies' real revenue per worker highest going back to 1986 S&P 500 quarter EPS growth estimates Y/Y % change Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner, Mike Snyder, and yup Jay Pestrichelli makes an appearance to give our 2026 predictions. Where will markets, the economy, gold, the dollar, the fed, interest rates, bitcoin, recession, oil, bitcoin and much more plus a look back at who got 2025 right. 2026 Year End S&P 500 Index Targets VIX high for 2026 10 Year Treasury predictions Where will Bitcoin end 2026? Where will Oil, Gold, & the US Dollar End land in 2026? Outliers amongst the group and some consensus Why you shouldn't trade off these Why committing to strategies rather than trying to time markets is the way 2025 Predictions and who was right and who was wrong The challenge in trying to predict markets When will the last Fed rate change happen next year? Where do interest rates wind up landing? What about GDP and CPI Inflation forecasts for 2026? Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to talk about silver prices going parabolic while Gold, Copper, Platinum, and other metals are clocking in gains. Does the rally continue? They, they look at how well international markets have done crushing the S&P 500 Index this year where Spain's IBEX 35 and South Korea's KOSPI are the top dogs that no one saw coming. Later, they discussed the attribution to gains this year including how much it is due to earnings growth vs the growth of the forward PE multiple. Finally, discussing how much the S&P 500 Index companies' turnover (and have done so at a much higher rate recently) showing the value of owning a momentum index that is diversified. Oil vs Gold Ratio Silver, Gold, Platinum, and Copper all rallying Surprising international markets crushing it this year including Spain and Korea Russell 2000 Index consensus 2026 earnings forecast sees EPS growing 61% in 2026 What is the Santa Claus rally? S&P 500 Index Company Turnover and disruption Why own indexes and is the S&P 500 Index a momentum index? Earnings growth vs multiple expansion responsible for market gains in 2025 Yardeni Research projects gold to hit $6000 in 2026 and $10,000 by 2030 Does the national deficit matter? Energy commodities vs metals Truck Tonnage Index decouples with the S&P 500 Index performance TIPS bonds may not help you during inflationary periods due to duration interest rate risk Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about the CPI report and the bad beat for analysts. Then, they talk Bitcoin and what if it goes sideways for the next 5 years? Later, looking at Tesla TSLA implied volatility and whether SpaceX is creeping into its price plus how a small ETF is gaining flows because of a small allocation to SpaceX. We'll also talk sector performance YTD in 2025, Bitcoin vs gold searches, and yup, a little Japan talk looking at their 10 year yields surging across 2% for the first time in a while and whether this is an issue. Gold vs Bitcoin Bitcoin if its flat over the next 5-10 years as it matures SpaceX seeking investors pile into XOVR ETF (ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF) What could go wrong for investors seeking private investments Sector performance YTD and some surprises Should Apple be a consumer staple? Japan 10-year yields surge past 2% so what could go wrong? Tesla TSLA implied volatility seems high, but it really isn't on a relative basis CPI prints a lower-than-expected reading Still no inflation from tariffs Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to ask if you would rather have a $1 million lump sum vs $1000 per week for life if you won the lotter. Then, looking at some of the incoming 2026 Wall Steet year end S&P 500 Index targets. Don't forget we'll do our own 2026 prediction show. Later, Apple seems to be bucking the AI spend and its price has been resilient in 2025, so what goes right or wrong in 2026? Plus, how markets go up over time but more specifically, in years they are up it's likely they are up more than average. Apple bet not to go all in on AI Wall Street investment banks 2026-year end targets starting Average market returns vs returns in up markets Time value of money Lottery winner in Canada chooses $1000 a week for life vs $1 million today The goldilocks markets as a thesis Mentioned in this Episode 20-Year-old lottery winner decies against $1M lump sum, opts for lifetime weekly $1000 payout https://ca.news.yahoo.com/20-year-old-lottery-winner-decides-against-1m-lump-sum-opts-for-lifetime-weekly-annuity-in-hopes-of-buying-a-home-120026248.html Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Jurrien Timmer's chart showing we aren't in a bubble because the rise in markets is due to earnings not multiple gains. Plus, U of Michigan consumer sentiment hits a new low despite markets near all-time highs. Later, is Japan's rise in interest rates a problem for stocks, bonds, or neither? Finally, looking at the returns of gold vs stocks plus surprising forward P/E ratio of Walmart vs Nvidia. Gold vs Stocks performance Jurrien Timmer's market return attributions comparing earnings vs valuation gains Bubble or not a bubble. Earnings multiple changes vs earnings changes Walmart forward P/E ratio University of Michigan consumer sentiment of economic conditions index Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com