Top Traders Unplugged

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week 01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets 03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure 05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend? 06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to 08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap 11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances 12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain 13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Joe on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum” 00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners 01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author 05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime 10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects 13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance 16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge 20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday 01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40 03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios 05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs 08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future 09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback 10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles 12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day” 16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really...

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Mike on X and read his book. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and setup 00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction 00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset 00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model 00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance 00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography 00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of...

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rob on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK 01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium? 03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective 04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle 09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing 11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends 13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from 18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing 25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone 27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow David on X. Episode TimeStamps: 00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich. 00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash. 00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed. 00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35. 00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification. 00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets. 00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time. 00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk. 00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures. 00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress. 00:37:48 – Euro...

What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Katy on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston 02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need 04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data 05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend 08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity 10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change 12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds 15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year 20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe 24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently 26:20

China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow George on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Opening and disclaimer 02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus 06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly 11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base 16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing 22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects 25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs 27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt 29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences 33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China...

What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Yoav on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion 00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent 00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November 00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions 00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis” 00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms 00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity 00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices? 00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds 00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how...

Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Adam on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction 03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles 08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes 13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets 20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system 27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation 34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk 41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill” 49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle...

Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:21 - Introduction to part 2 02:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota 06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen 17:13 - The optimal bet size 21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota 25:45 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns 27:57 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota 33:00 - Living with Ed Seykota 35:19 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey: 1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Follow Moritz on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick 01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone 02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 2025 04:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds 06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback 07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts 08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion 10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones 11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside 14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats 18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Read more about David. Episode TimeStamps: 02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz 13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation 19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following? 23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy 28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets? 37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets 41:03 - Managing money in trend following 43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it? 45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility 50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the...

Rich Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Rich on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series 00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich 00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk 00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules 00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following 00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens 00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust 00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends 00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade 00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions 00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and introductions 01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI 03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades 14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies 21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity 32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations 39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers 44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility 56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts 01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimers Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:32 - Introduction to our special guest 01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today? 09:15 - Is it just a cycle? 19:46 - What is the end game? 23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity 31:45 - How trend following has changed over time 39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective? 45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs 53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities 56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved ---- PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Read more about Maurice here. Episode TimeStamps: 02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld 05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy? 11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted? 18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar 27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist? 29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar? 34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming? 36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically 39:16 - A fork in the road for the...

Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 01:34 - What has been on our radar recently? 05:43 - Is this time different for gold? 14:13 - Just a gold story? 16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets? 19:45 - The Fed has to change 26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty 30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks 35:30 - Not every innovations are good 39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold 46:21 - Industry performance update 49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets 01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader 01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets 01:14:32 - What is up for next week? Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Argentina’s history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging markets at large - their hard-won stability, the new risks born of geopolitics and demographics, and the shifting fault lines of globalization. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Read more about Nicolas. Episode TimeStamps: 02:24 - Introduction to Nicolas Dujovne 05:32 - Key reflections from Dujovne's former role as ministry of Treasury in Argentina 11:43 - How dollarization could change the overall dynamic of the economy 14:52 - How Dujovne's role as minister has shaped his investment process 16:56 - The state and outlook of emerging markets 21:13 - The relationship between central banks and emerging markets 23:33 - How the current globalization impact the investing landscape 27:43 - Evaluating the U.S from the lens of an emerging market investor 33:25 - How markets respond to fiscal...

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI’s misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gold, and crypto, this is a portrait of a regime defined not by fundamentals, but by reflex and constraint. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Alan on X Episode TimeStamps: 00:23 - What has been on our radar recently? 02:00 - Industry performance update 03:07 - Are current valuations a sign of a bubble? 12:13 - The importance of reflexivity 18:59 - The move towards non correlation is upon us 22:55 - What is driving up asset prices? 26:34 - When will the supply/demand imbalance normalize? 31:56 - Reaching an uncontrollable situation 35:47 - What are markets showing us about options? 39:38 - Precious metals is the place to be 42:26 - Is AI actually the game changer that we all expect it to be? 52:07 - Will better technology = better performance? 56:03 - A timeline for possible