More or Less: Behind the Stats

Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. It is true that trillions of dollars of American financial assets are held in Europe. But the devil, as ever, is in the detail. Tim Harford talks to Toby Nangle, a journalist with the Financial Times, to drill down into the numbers. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits? Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong? Are 1990s pop icons Right Said Fred right about what they said about church attacks? Is a sauna really ten times as hot as Wales in the winter? And Tim hits the science lab treadmill to find out if he can run a four-hour marathon. If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Gareth Morgan, benefits expert and author of the Benefits in the Future blog Joe Shalam, policy director of the Centre for Social Justice Professor Kelly Morrison, head of physics at Loughborough University Dr Danny Muniz, a senior lecturer in Exercise Physiology at the University of Hertfordshire Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light. YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world - contain necessary but massive distortions and hugely exaggerate the size of the Arctic island. So, why is making a flat map of a round globe so difficult? Why did we end up with a problematic map in the first place? And are there any alternatives? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Nathan Gower Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Engineer: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: How far away is Greenland from the United States? We check a number From Our Own Correspondent. Does converting our entire energy system to be carbon neutral come with a £7.6 trillion price tag? Is the inevitable rise of house prices in the UK not so inevitable after all? Can the great mathematicians of history answer the question of the hour: how to play The Traitors? If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Jay Foreman, one half of YouTube duo the Map Men Mike Thompson, chief economist of the National Energy System Operator David Turver, author of The Cost of Net Zero, a report from the Institute of Economic Affairs Neal Hudson, housing market analyst and founder housing research website BuiltPlace Dr Kat Phillips, mathematician and Innovation research associate at the University of Warwick, Traitors aficionado Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Tom Colls Producers: Nathan Gower and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk. However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right? Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths? Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct? s there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise. If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US. But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth. At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone. Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up and running at full capacity within 18 months. But can they, and why is it that estimates for other countries oil reserves have fluctuated but Venezuela’s has stayed at 300 billion barrels for over two decades? Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates: Has 98% of the UK’s population growth come from immigration? Do we spend more on benefits in the UK than in other high-income countries? Is the gap between rich and poor growing? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Lukas Lehner, Assistant Professor at the University of Edinburgh Arun Advani, Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation and a Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick. Alex Scholes, Research Director at NatCen Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions: Are one in four pensioners millionaires? Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Are our prisons going to run out of space? Is the weather getting weirder? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Harry Fletcher-Wood, Director of Training at StepLab John Jerrim, Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College London Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions: Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis? Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries? Is violent crime going up or down? Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the second episode, we’re asking some interesting questions about health and the NHS: Has life expectancy in the UK starting to go up again at last? What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS? After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs? What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK? What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP) Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy: Is the cost-of-living crisis over? The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number? When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services? Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK? Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

We look back at some stand out numbers of 2025. How significant were Trump’s import tariffs? China sets the pace for solar power installation across the globe. We also look upwards to a particularly speedy comet - 3i Atlas. Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

The surprising things we learn when we count everyone - a tour of the UK census through time. We also figure out just how many parking officers there are versus soldiers in the British army. Who really does all the housework? Plus - 20 years of ‘Freakonomics’ with Stephen Dubner. And finally - were there really three wise men who visited baby Jesus? And were they kings as the Christmas hymn would lead us to believe? Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Nathan Gower and Katie Solleveld Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

A loyal listener wrote in to question this claim made by neuroscientist Dr Daniel Levitin: "Here in the US valium in a pharmacy might be $3 that same pill in a hospital setting might be $750." Our listener was shocked at how one pill can cost 250 x more in a hospital setting than in a pharmacy. But can it? Sort of. We turned to Elisabeth Rosenthal to take us on a dive into the frankly shocking world of US Health costs. Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill

The NHS is warning of an unprecedented flu season - we check what the numbers say. Is there really a mass exodus of Brits leaving the UK due to Labour tax policies? We look at the latest emigration figures. We take a look at the prison service’s curious habit of letting prisoners out early – or keeping them in for too long - is there a trend? Plus - why the US economy can’t grow at 25 percent a year. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald, Katie Solleveld, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls. Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Whether we like it or not, global warming is happening. The global temperature has already gone up, and it’s going to go up more, because the atmosphere is already full of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and we’re continuing to add to that stock. Quite how much it will increase by is a very important question for all of us. Until relatively recently, during much of the 2010s and into the 2020s, many scientists claimed that if we kept on going down the path we were on, if we just kept on with business as usual, then by the end of the century global temperatures would increase by almost five degrees centigrade. This projection was based on something called RCP 8.5, a statistical scenario used by scientists to model the future of the climate. You can still find scientific papers published in 2025 that make the same claim. However, there’s a good case that RCP 8.5 should never have been used as the business-as-usual scenario. And in hindsight it doesn’t look like an accurate vision of the future at all. So what’s going on? Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and the climate research lead at Stripe, explains the argument. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

Around the world, many countries are concerned about tackling the decline in birth rates and total fertility rates. The US is no exception. To tackle this issue the US government announced that it would provide subsidies for Americans seeking IVF treatment. The announcement was accompanied by one suspect sounding stat from US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. "Today the average teenager in this country has 50% of the sperm count, 50% of the testosterone as a 65-year-old man," he said. We speak to Professor Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology at the University of Manchester, and Adith Arun, a researcher at Yale University to find out whether this statement is accurate. Producer/Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Mix: James Beard