How to avoid The Mistake of Using Hindsight as foresight?
Hey buddy, its Jerome- have you ever have some of these challenges: You attend expensive programs, seminars, webinars which promise meaningful outcome-which turn out not to deliver- the expected results especially when you implemented the nuts and bolts, you work hard – you took continuously take risk over and over nothing work and at worst you go bankrupt or you hear and see people who? Me too “Me too- I also went through...
How Do You Avoid using the wrong Maps?
Those days you get disappointed, you get bog down, you get sad – you get angry, people make fun of you – you feel your sense of serenity and enthusiasm going down. How do you turn it around?
If you went from expensive courses to courses, attended webinars- seminars and most important put all the prescribe recommendations into practice by creating courses nobody buy, put videos on YouTube nobody watch them. Create blog nobody read and hosting...
Why the needle comes in an increasingly larger haystack?
Consider the following experiment a company X own by John release a new product/service to the public and since the product is organic-the expected success of the service turn out to be an unexpected shamble. t
Well what went wrong? Well John contact a consultant and precisely a data analyst or you want a top-notch marketer to figure out the cause of your decadence a la French accent. Well he/she makes you an offer you cannot...
Well consider the following practical experiment you may have went through several times. For the last 5 years Donald who is an entrepreneur or an aspiring business owner/investor you name it, has being attending high promising business programs and mega summits worth at least 5000 dollars each. Now guess what? In practical terms his Business and life has not evolved for the better. Donald start to wonder what is wrong with himself? Be careful Donald is a practical person meaning a doer...
Till 2016 compete looks immune to the upheaval meaning the sudden violent change. The same team on the head of the company has run comfortably the company over a decade. Many pundits argued that compete sturdy police system which exercise tight control on its mailing list of customers, would survive the chaos and turmoil of the world due to the complexity of the era we living in undisturbed.
By the way the rise of complexity is due to globalization and internet characterize by a high...
The "Evidence Based" Approach is often the Province of Statistically Pseudo-Experts incapable of grasping Absence of Evidence
Absence of Evidence
Consider the following experiment- John is founder of a hilgly successful web analytic website- and have as baseline 15.000.000 active members as entrpreneurs- aspiring entrepreurs,investors,decision makers – who are using his services.
Year one john’s membership web analytic is doing very well- year two the financial heath of the company has...
Evolution is scalable: the DNA that wins (whether by luck or
survival advantage) will reproduce itself, like a bestselling book or a successful
record, and become pervasive, widespread and general. Other DNA will vanish.
Let me give you 3 practical examples that shows in a nutshell what I mean:
First example, take google control more than 80% of traffic online
Microsoft control more than 80% of PC, LAPTOPS and other device produce out there
,Facebook, twitter are the behemoth of...
When lightening hit, we do not change the laws of nature
Welcome to extremistan or the Non linear/or the complex Domain
Since the world has become increasingly more unpredictable, due to globalization and internet-we are witnessing the following problems- which pervade across board.
The difference between anecdote and evidence
The difference between knowledge and BS
The difference between an observation that is fake check and something you can generalise
How do you know something is...
Life isn't about getting predictions "right"; it is about knowing how to navigate the environment and controlling it.How?
Consider the following surprising headline:” The employee motivation leads to higher corporate profits.” What about maybe people are only motivated because the company is doing well or what about highly motivated workers working in business doing poorly?
Another one. What about female advertising cosmetic and thus many female consumers believe...
Why we are lot good at doing than knowing?
If you are professor at Harvard expert specialise in a given field. Your errors of predictions on the subject of what is going to happen -will be way higher than the one a semi ignorant. In another if you can only read and write ,your errors are inferior to someone who is specialise in the subject.
Let me give another example:If you give 50 piece of information of a patient to a psychologist and later 10 piece of iformation on the same...
Let me give a metaphor; If I leave a small piece of ice cube on the floor and ask you to predict how the ice cube will melt. It is very simple answer to be predicted.
Now if I recommend you, condition of not having seen initially the ice cube and you ask where is the water on the floor coming from?
Please stop to listen and provide the relevant answer .You see it is extremely very difficult to give the accurate answer? Why because you will come up with answers of different shapes. It is...
When we look at even, we tend to look at causes that are visible to us, we don’t look at the cemetery, meaning the things that are not obvious and salient to us. Yes history tend to kill a lot of information that was not deemed relevant at the time. Just as if you want know the causes to become multimillionaire –you will hear beautifully well-crafted and compelling words of self-appointed consultants and experts, data scientists purport that risk taking and working hard are necessary....
Let us talk about data analytic namely let us talk today about unpredictability by following the logical steps
First do you believe that you can use data to predict systematically what is going on? Please write your answer down.
Second question. Are you aware of something we call world of finance or Wall Street?
Third question. How many correlation metrics or data do we have in 2007 before the financial crises? How large it was or how big it was?
Answer: Between half a billion and a...
Let me clarify the main idea behind what scientists call hedonic treadmill.
Making $1 million in one year, but nothing in the preceding nine, does not bring the same pleasure as having the total evenly distributed over the same period, that is, $100,000 every year for ten years in a row. The same applies to the inverse order—making a bundle the first year, then nothing for the remaining period.
Your happiness depends far more on the number of instances of positive feelings, what...
For Millennia, Europeans thought that all swan were white- because everywhere they looked, swans were always white. Till In year 1697 the Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh saw a black swan in Australia and sure enough one single observation can destroy millennia of confirmation – likewise Take the story of the Turkey “For those of you who haven listen or watch, I hugely recommend you as soon as possible to give it a try. If you are employee and after 40 years, you are lay off the street....
How to Spot an Impostor or a Charlatan?
In 1948 the psychologist Bertram Forer made an unusual and surprising experiment. First and foremost, he used astrology columns from a wide range of magazines. He then gave his pupils meaning his students to read and rate themselves after their own assessment.
Well here is the experiment. It may surprise you .Dear listener or watcher .I know you personally and here is the way I would characterise you. You greatly like to be appreciated and...
If someone tries to trick you with "Evidence-based analysis", show him this story of the turkey
This Story of The Turkey
Consider the following story, borrows from Bertrand Russell and adapted by me
A turkey is fed for 1000 days by a butcher and everyday confirms to the turkey and turkey’s business’s paid membership site or offline- paid subscription’s site and offline, the turkey’s risk management department in a company, and the turkey’s analytic department in a business, the...
Why We Humans Feel the good less Intensely Than The Bad?
I will build a wall on the border between Mexico and the US ,I will take all the jobs overseas and bring them back home.Does that ring a bell the promotor of these promises? Donald Trump .These disadvantages which are vastly consequential and powerful anchors to move people to action. (Obviously here in optionality profits.com we advocate that any offer muss be based on noble, ethical and full of integrity from our...
“The Bozo Explosion In Your Organisation” Steve Jobs
-The more you compare yourself to others, whether favorably or unfavorably, the worse off you will be.
As one of my Podcast episode hit a large audience worldwide, a good friend of mine, hugely successful podcaster and venture capitalist asked me favour. One of his episode’s title, slightly similar to my actual most listened one, was on the way to become a blockbuster.so he was persuaded that, me being interviewed by him was a necessary...
After Donald trump got the nomination of Republican Party, a democrat to win the next presidency of the US by 9/11/2016
Ebola propagation to be worldwide by end 2016
After Brexit, EU likely to collapse
No more food in 25 years from now, only pills to be swallowed
Daily consultants, experts and media assail us with prediction but how credible and reliable are they? Well Philipp fetlock in his blockbuster, bestseller book: Expert Political...