Robert Wright's Nonzero

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:30 The pro-tariff argument: national security, jobs, and leverage 6:58 The four factions shaping US trade policy 11:43 Karthik’s core critique of Trump’s tariff policy 16:18 How tariffs could block development pathways for poor countries 22:52 Is Trump blaming foreign countries for America's own policy mistakes? 30:19 A brutal week for Vietnam Recorded April 04, 2025. Read this week's edition of the Earthling: https://www.nonzero.org/p/elon-musks-nasa-takeover https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Reid's new book, "Superagency: What Could Possibly Go Right with Our AI Future" 8:56 Managing technological transitions 16:33 Using AI to build cognitive empathy 20:25 Shaping the coming AI earthquake 29:02 Reid's notion of "co-opetition" with China 40:06 Geopolitics and AI development 44:53 The US chip war on China 50:01 Heading into Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Reid Hoffman (Greylock Partners, Inflection AI, Impromptu, Superagency). Recorded March 26, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Almut’s first-hand acquaintance with authoritarianism 2:24 Trump 2.0’s authoritarian hallmarks 19:37 What should worry us most about Trump 2.0? 26:15 Trump 2.0 vs post-Soviet oligarchy: compare and contrast 33:08 Is Trump an ethno-nationalist? 39:02 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Almut Rochowanski (The Quincy Institute, https://discomfortzone.substack.com/). Recorded April 1, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:30 The dueling camps in right-wing foreign policy 10:25 Lessons from the Signal snafu 15:42 Are hawks dominating Trump's foreign policy team? 22:58 Can Congress prevent a war with Iran? 31:13 A "smear campaign" against Danny Davis Recorded March 28, 2025. Read this week's edition of the Earthling: https://www.nonzero.org/p/the-untold-stories-of-the-signal https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Bob and Paul duel over their sleep deficits 5:16 Trump’s Tesla-friendly tariffs 13:16 Who’s favo(u)red to win the Canadian election? 19:56 Tufts and Columbia as authoritarian bellwethers 31:16 Did Bob predict MAGA in 1999? 38:49 God vs Hitler 46:21 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded March 27, 2025.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 The new JFK documents dump 5:15 The conflict between JFK and the CIA 8:34 The Pentagon false flag plan that JFK vetoed 13:30 How CIA funding shaped the Oswald narrative 17:22 James Jesus Angleton’s handling of Oswald 32:55 Some lies told by CIA officials 42:14 Files the CIA still won’t release Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Jefferson Morley (https://jfkfacts.substack.com/, Snow-Storm in August). Recorded March 26, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:30 Will Trump get locked into war in Yemen? 8:27 Competing instincts in Trump’s foreign policy team 11:16 How should the restraint movement respond to Trump? 15:11 Justin: Trump's pitch-perfect approach to Europe 23:13 What happens if Trump pulls US troops from Europe? Recorded March 20, 2025. Read this week's edition of the Earthling: https://www.nonzero.org/p/trumps-israel-first-agenda https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Ross’s new book, Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious 7:17 An argument for cosmic purpose 14:59 The mysterious persistence of weird s**t 18:34 Does human consciousness point to something bigger? 24:33 Tensions between science and Christian orthodoxy 28:03 A few more words about consciousness 34:50 A few more words about weirdness 41:56 Why doesn’t the weirdness show up in controlled studies? 48:44 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Ross Douthat (The New York Times, The Decadent Society, Believe). Recorded March 18, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Jeet’s plans for Canadian resistance 3:30 Trump 2.0: Making “autarkic imperialism” great again? 12:01 The hidden logic of Trump’s tariffs 20:19 The historical roots of Trumpism 34:56 How Trump won the GOP civil war 43:36 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Jeet Heer (The Nation). Recorded March 18, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:29 Connor’s Cuba adventure 1:41 Chinese-owned Manus AI makes waves 8:35 Is Manus just a fancy ‘wrapper’ for US AI? 15:20 Why Manus makes global AI cooperation more urgent 23:39 Can Trump deport a green card holder over political speech? 34:58 Making sense of Trump's Ukraine strategy Recorded March 14, 2025. Read this week's edition of the Earthling: https://www.nonzero.org/p/the-real-message-from-chinas-latest https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Does Paul have CDS (Chaos Desensitization Syndrome)? 4:06 Worthwhile Canadian backlash 9:54 Elon’s Tesla problem 15:34 Trump 2.0’s free speech crackdown 18:28 The primal psychology of Trump and Elon 26:10 Bezos and university presidents bow to Trump 36:29 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded March 12, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Is the chaos starting to subside? 11:46 Trump’s tariff strategy (or lack thereof)18:56 Trump’s baffling, backfiring Canada obsession 26:01 Elon’s darkly weird grandfather 38:01 Has America gone full oligarchy? 43:16 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Eric Levitz (New York Magazine, Vox). Recorded March 10, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 What could go right with Trump’s foreign policy? 8:11 Trump’s Bibi-pleasing Middle East path 13:49 How would Europe-led defence of Europe work? 15:55 What most miss about the Oval Office blowup 19:44 Has relying on America doomed Ukraine? 26:53 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True), Derek Davison (Foreign Exchanges, American Prestige, Discontents), and Daniel Bessner (American Prestige, University of Washington). Recorded March 06, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Dan’s new paper, “Superintelligence Strategy” 2:58 “Mutually assured AI malfunction” 7:46 Does China see America’s AI policy as a grave threat? 14:45 How likely is US-China conflict over superintelligence? 25:26 How America’s chip war makes war over Taiwan more likely 33:45 Why did China-hawkism sweep Silicon Valley? 42:08 Can we avoid AI doom without global governance? 57:26 The key points of Dan’s paper 1:04:56 Heading to Overtime This conversation is with Dan Hendrycks, a big figure in AI. It’s about a paper he just co-authored (and in fact published today), with some other notables: Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google and a big figure in tech policy and national security policy circles, and Alexandr Wang, CEO of Scale AI. The paper, called “Superintelligence Strategy,” is putting forth some very big ideas about tech and national security, including the one this conversation focuses on: what the authors call “mutually assured AI malfunction,” or MAIM. In principle, the dynamic this term describes could apply to any two adversaries that are trying to beat each other to so-called artificial general intelligence (AGI) and then to so-called superintelligence. But by far the most obvious and important application is to the US-China relationship. AGI is considered by some to be a major threshold that leads in very short order to superintelligence, which in theory could allow one country to utterly dominate countries that are just months behind it in AI progress. So, as Dan and his co-authors point out, if one country seems to be approaching AGI, its adversary could feel so threatened that it takes extreme measures, like cybersabotage of AI infrastructure or even more aggressive moves. The “Superintelligence Strategy” paper argues that awareness of this possibility of sabotage or other aggression could keep countries from seeking the kind of clear cut AI dominance that might trigger such countermeasures by an adversary. This theoretically stabilizing dynamic is what they call mutually assured AI malfunction. That is of course a reference to mutually assured destruction, or MAD, the stabilizing dynamic that helps keep nuclear powers from attacking each other (since a would-be attacker knows that destruction would likely be mutual). I thought Dan and I had a great conversation, with lots of healthy disagreement, but I realized afterwards that I had failed to make explicit a big point that was implicit in some of the pushback I gave him. Namely: I do not see the dynamic that he and his co-authors are calling mutually assured malfunction as a very plausibly stabilizing force, even if you implement some of their ideas for making it more stabilizing. And the reason is that I think in critical respects this dynamic is not analogous to mutually assured destruction. The rules of the game are fuzzier than with mutually assured destruction, and the actions of the two sides are more ambiguous, more prone to differing interpretations. For example: I suspect China finds current US restrictions on its microchip imports—restrictions that all three authors of this paper support—more deeply threatening than American policy makers realize. And these kinds of asymmetrical perceptions—one country not realizing how threatening its actions seem to another country—are very common in international relations (and in fact have been known to start wars). Yet mutually assured malfunction, if it is to be a truly stabilizing dynamic, would seem to require that such asymmetrical perceptions are rare and that a country like the US is consistently pretty good at understanding how its rivals view things and when they do and don’t feel threatened. And, in my view, the US is historically very bad at exercising this kind of cognitive empathy. Indeed, as regular NZN podcast listeners know, I’ve marveled (and despaired) at the failure of the US foreign policy establishment to...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Andrew’s new gig (and gifts) 3:38 Play-by-play of the Oval Office blowup 9:28 Zelensky’s and Trump’s obsessions 16:55 What are Russia’s red lines? 26:36 Guaranteeing Ukraine’s (and Europe’s) security 33:49 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Andrew Day (The American Conservative). Recorded March 03, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:30 Introduction 2:21 How the Pentagon budget got so big 6:55 How to cut $60 billion in military spending this year 15:11 The privatization of weapons acquisitions 19:12 Prospects for military budget reform under Trump Recorded February 28, 2025. Read this week's edition of the Earthling: https://www.nonzero.org/p/immortality-and-its-discontents https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Paul’s cold take on US-Canada relations 4:38 How representative is representative government, really? 11:36 Bob’s plan to end hockey fights 17:24 A worthwhile Canadian initiative to dump Musk 21:55 What makes James Bond James Bond? 32:05 Bob’s reign as TV analysis king continues (claims Bob) 36:31 Heading to Overtime—and a special discount deal! Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Paul Bloom (https://smallpotatoes.paulbloom.net, University of Toronto, The Sweet Spot, Against Empathy). Recorded February 26, 2025. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

0:28 Jack’s experience with presidential power 1:56 Unpacking Trump’s Pentagon and DOJ purges 10:57 Which legal battles could Trump win? 19:39 The Trump-Musk chaos: bug or feature? 27:07 How Trump is putting “unitary executive theory” into practice 36:34 Is a unitary executive unconstitutional? 50:33 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Jack Goldsmith (Harvard Law School, In Hoffa's Shadow, https://executivefunctions.substack.com/). Recorded February 24, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.nonzero.org/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:30 Intro and housekeeping 2:02 Trump's very good, very bad week on Ukraine 13:18 Trump vs his foreign policy team? 19:42 Great-power competition and its discontents 24:32 Musk runs roughshod over DC Recorded February 21, 2025. Read this week's edition of the Earthling: https://www.nonzero.org/p/trumps-very-good-very-bad-week-on https://twitter.com/NonzeroNews https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.nonzero.org 0:28 Nora’s work on AI alignment and interpretability 2:21 Is *a* singularity near? 9:52 Nora: AI may take my job within two years 14:56 The reason(ing) behind AI’s latest acceleration 24:14 Thinking through the “chain-of-thought” process 41:44 AI “thinking” vs human thinking 47:21 Heading to Overtime Robert Wright (Nonzero, The Evolution of God, Why Buddhism Is True) and Nora Belrose (EleutherAI). Recorded February 18, 2024. Twitter: https://twitter.com/NonzeroPods