Think Change

As global leaders gather in Davos later this month amid shrinking aid budgets and hardening geopolitical priorities, development finance is being recast through the language of investment – raising urgent questions about who shapes this new model, who carries the risk, and who benefits. Development finance is entering a period of profound transition. Traditional aid models are under strain, squeezed by fiscal pressure, political fragmentation and shifting global priorities. In their place, investment-led approaches, from impact investing and blended finance to philanthropic capital and deeper private sector engagement, are gaining prominence as the future of development. In this episode of Think Change, we examine what this shift looks like in practice. How is capital being deployed across Africa and other emerging markets? What role do micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play in translating finance into inclusive growth? And how viable is the move from grants to risk-tolerant investment in fragile and underserved contexts? Experts discuss where impact investing is delivering real outcomes, where expectations may be overstated, and how power, incentives and accountability are shifting as development increasingly speaks the language of capital. As Davos conversations turn towards mobilising private finance and redefining global cooperation, the episode asks whether investment genuinely deepen development, rather than simply reshaping it in the image of existing markets. Guests Sara PantulianoAmit BouriNeil GregoryDorothy NyambiRelated resources IRIS+Impact PrinciplesImpact Investor Survey

After a year of extraordinary upheaval, this special episode looks ahead to the forces set to shape 2026. From deep aid cuts and accelerating AI to renewed geopolitical tension, political violence and humanitarian catastrophe, guests explore what a fractured global landscape means for democracy, development and the future of international cooperation. 2025 has tested the resilience of the international system. Aid budgets have been slashed, debt pressures have mounted across low-income countries, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have outpaced political and regulatory responses. At the same time, political violence, democratic backsliding and public dissent have intensified while humanitarian crises and genocide continue to expose the limits of existing multilateral responses. Against this backdrop, global power is fragmenting as supply chains are being reshaped, economic nationalism is on the rise, and geopolitical competition is increasingly defining how states engage with one another. Tune in as we explore how dynamics of technological disruption, economic stress and geopolitical realignment are redefining cooperation and what realistic shifts could help strengthen global governance and collective action as we move into 2026. Guests Sara PantulianoComfort Ero,Sir Vince Cable, Dr. Urvashi Aneja Related resources Donors In A Post-Aid World December 2025 updateThink Change episode 61: what trends will shape 2025?How geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping finance for emerging markets

After one of the most challenging years for the humanitarian system, Sudan offers both a stark warning and a source of new thinking. This episode of Think Change examines how local actors are reshaping aid around solidarity, dignity and community leadership. Sudan’s crisis is unfolding at an extraordinarily difficult moment. Since violence escalated in April 2023, state institutions have collapsed, essential services have disappeared and millions have been displaced. Yet despite the scale of suffering, the conflict has remained one of the world’s least visible, receiving minimal political attention and limited media coverage. But as formal systems fell away, communities themselves stepped forward. Mutual aid networks – most prominently the Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) – have grown out of Sudan’s long history of neighbourhood organising and now play a central role in protecting civilians, coordinating life-saving assistance and sustaining basic services. Operating as volunteers with scarce resources, they have become the only functioning governance structures in many areas. At the same time, global recognition of their efforts is growing. The ERRs’ innovation and courage have earned nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize in both 2024 and 2025, highlighting not only the impact of their work but also the larger challenge they pose to international actors: to reconsider power, legitimacy and the role of civic leadership when states can no longer function. With Sudan’s future hanging in the balance, the questions are urgent. What does genuine locally led leadership look like in a moment of institutional collapse? How can global actors support community-driven resilience without undermining it? And what might the ERRs’ example mean for the future of humanitarian action worldwide? Guests Sara PantulianoAl Sanosi Adam,Luka Biong Deng,Denise BrownFreddie Carver,Related resources From 'ego-systems' to 'ecosystems': renewing humanitarian action ODI Global and NEAR's advisory panel on the future of humanitarian actionODI Global's Sudan resources hub

Online misogyny is becoming a defining feature of digital life, amplified by algorithms and enabled by platforms that fail to protect users. As violence against women intensifies across online spaces, the stakes for gender equality and for democracy itself have never been higher. Violence online is surging at a moment when digital spaces should be becoming more inclusive. Algorithms reward outrage, platform design obscures abuse, and hostile online communities allow those who target women to organise and radicalise. As a result, violence that begins online increasingly spills into public life. But the consequences go far beyond individual harm. Abuse aimed at women in politics is already deterring them from seeking re-election, while global progress on gender equality is slowing. With governments struggling to regulate fast-moving platforms and profit incentives working against user safety, digital spaces are becoming sites where exclusion is reproduced at scale. With the stakes rising, the questions are pressing. What is driving this rapid escalation in online misogyny? How are design choices and political inaction enabling it? And what would it take to turn digital spaces into environments that strengthen equality rather than deepen exclusion? Guests Sara PantulianoSasha Havlicek,Seyi AkiwowoDiana Jiménez Rodriguez,Related resources Hidden in plain sight: how the infrastructure of social media shapes gender normsDigital sexual violence against women in Mexico: role of the Olimpia Law in transforming underlying gender normsSocial media, violence and gender norms: the need for a new digital social contractDrivers of tech-facilitated GBV in Mexico: A behavioural research study in Oaxaca and Estado of MéxicoWhy online safety policies and digital advocacy are essential for women’s political participationBreak the bias to challenge gender norms on social media

World leaders are heading to the Amazonian city of Belém this month for COP30, as Brazil aims to deliver the most consequential climate summit in years. This year’s negotiations come at a difficult moment. Concerns around trade relations and national security are dominating the political landscape, whilst a resurgence of disinformation has also pushed climate to take a back seat. But every five years, the Paris Agreement compels nations to reveal their progress and ambition. Brazil’s COP30 Presidency is expected to launch a landmark plan to mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for low-income countries, while negotiators refine how to measure adaptation goals and resilience. At the same time, a rising wave of anti-environment and anti-gender movements threatens to undermine global commitments. With the world’s biggest emitters under scrutiny, the questions are urgent. What does real success look like in Belém? Can climate ambition survive amid political headwinds? And how can global diplomacy steer the transition toward a fairer, more resilient world? Guests Sara Pantuliano Ehsan MasoodHelen Mountford,Sinead Walsh,Related resources ODI Global at COP30Country PlatformsFrom Washington to Belém and beyond: a new era for climate finance

This episode examines the shifting landscape of Palestenian statehood as recognition spreads and new peace initiatives test the future of governance and diplomacy. Momentum around Palestinian self-determination is building. Following a landmark summit chaired by Saudi Arabia and France on the margins of last month's UN general Assembly, the UK formally recognised Palestine, with nine other countries soon following suit. At the same time, Donald Trump unveiled a 20-point plan for Gaza, proposing a “Board of Peace” led by Tony Blair to oversee governance, demilitarisation and reconstruction. With recognition spreading and new peace initiatives on the table, some welcomed, others highly contested - the questions are urgent: What do these developments mean for Palestinian statehood? How can governance be structured to support stability, rights, and accountability? And what is the role of international diplomacy in shaping a just and lasting peace in the region? Guests: Sara PantulianoNimer Sultany,Nomi Bar-Yaacov,Sultan Barakat,Related resources: Gaza and the 'day after' – international protection for reconstructionIsrael-Gaza crisis Stop the siege, stop the starvation – political gestures won't save GazaPolitical economy: an antidote to outrage on GazaThree key takeaways from UNGA 80

This episode examines the evolving role of philanthropy in shaping global development cooperation at a time when official aid is under strain. According to the European Network on Debt and Development (Eurodad), global official development assistance (ODA) hit a record $223.7 billion in 2023. But many governments are cutting back under pressure from debt, Covid recovery, and domestic priorities. At the same time, needs are exploding: climate adaptation could cost $300 billion a year by 2030, and low-income countries already spend more on debt than on health and education combined. Philanthropy is being called to step up. But what should that look like? Beyond filling gaps, can foundations help reshape systems themselves – and do so with accountability and long-term impact? Guests ask what lessons we can take from the Gates Foundation's bold decision to double its annual spending – with a plan to disburse $200 billion over 20 years before closing down. Could it spark a new model of North-South cooperation? We hear how philanthropy can complement shrinking aid flows, address structural inequalities, and respond to emerging challenges – from climate shocks to pandemics to debt crises in the Global South. Guests Sara PantulianoAlice Albright,Gargee GhoshAlexia Latortue, Related resources Donors in a Post-Aid WorldWhat’s next for global cooperation?Can multilateralism be saved?The case for development in 2025: exploring new narratives for aid in the context of the EU’s new strategic agendaThe future of aidClimate-responsive social protection: A primer for philanthropy

From the suffragette movement and the fight against apartheid to today’s campaigns for climate justice and Palestine, what defines legitimate protest? And who gets to decide? This episode explores the contested politics of protest through history. We examine what happens when legal and political channels for change are blocked, and how states respond when protest challenges entrenched power. As politicians celebrate historic acts of civil disobedience while criminalising modern movements, we ask: who gets to decide what counts as legitimate protest – and how will history judge us? Helen Pankhurst CBE, Chancellor of University of Suffolk and great grand-daughter of iconic suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst, discusses what we can learn from shifting attitudes to protest movements over time. We hear from Chief Executive of Amnesty International UK Sacha Deshmukh, who explains why proscribing Palestine Action sets a dangerous precedent for criminalising peaceful protest. And Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou (Director of Politics and Governance programme, ODI Global) assesses how definitions of 'protest' are shaping grassroots movements globally. Guests Sara Pantuliano (host),Sacha Deshmukh,Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou,Helen Pankhurst CBE,

The 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA 80) is under way at a time when the UN faces existential challenges. Established 80 years ago to safeguard peace, foster cooperation and uphold the rights and dignity of all people, today the very foundations of the UN’s mission are being tested by various global trends: intensifying geopolitical rivalries, the climate crisis, record levels of forced displacement, eroding trust in multilateralism, and a systematic disregard for international humanitarian law – as is being witnessed in Gaza, Ukraine and elsewhere. The UN80 initiative was meant to generate fresh ideas and commitments to revitalise the organisation for the future. But the results so far have been limited – more a patchwork of incremental reforms than the kind of bold transformation many hoped for. As world leaders gather in New York for UNGA, this episode examines the credibility crisis facing the UN, and whether it can deliver the ambitious and urgent reforms needed to respond to today's fractured global order. Guests Sara PantulianoHeba AlyFreddie Carver,Natalie Samarasinghe, Related resources ODI Global on UNGA 80 Overcoming the obstacles to UN reformDonors in a Post-Aid WorldWhat role should donors play in a post-aid world?The future of global humanitarian actionWhat’s next for global cooperation?

The soaring cost of capital for many low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Africa, is one of the most urgent and overlooked development challenges. High borrowing costs are hindering vital investments in energy, infrastructure, food security and public services – threatening development progress and deepening global inequality. But this decisive year for Africa could present opportunities for reform. South Africa is hosting the G20 Presidency – a first for an African country – whilst the next African Development Fund replenishment is due in November. In this critical moment, guests examine what it would take to make development finance fairer, more affordable and aligned with African countries' priorities. We hear about the political choices and practical mechanisms that could create a system that is more effective and better equipped to respond to today's challenges. Guests Sara PantulianoValerie Dabady,Hanan MorsyBright Simons, Related resources Investor Herding and Spillovers in African Debt Markets Tackling the 'cost of capital' crisis in small vulnerable nations How can development financing be reformed? The road to Seville On borrowed time? The sovereign debt crisis in the Global South

Despite fractured politics in the US (and elsewhere) around foreign aid, Congress recently reauthorised plans to fund PEPFAR – the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief – even though the programme itself has not been formally reauthorised. Since being established in 2003, PEPFAR funding for prevention, care and treatment programmes is estimated to have saved over 26 million lives. It's one of the most successful global health initiatives, and against all odds it remains a symbol of bipartisan cooperation. But this moment raises bigger questions about what comes next. How sustainable is a model that depends so heavily on political will in the Global North? How can countries in the Global South set their own agendas? And how will increasingly polarised US politics shape PEPFAR's future, especially on issues around sexual and reproductive health and rights? Guests dissect these questions and examine how PEPFAR and the wider global health architecture must evolve to meet today’s urgent challenges. Guests Sara PantulianoElizabeth CampbellDoris MachariaFionnuala MurphyRelated resources PEPFAR Latest Global Results & Projections Factsheet (Dec. 2024)Frontline AIDS welcomes the news that PEPFAR will be spared from US cuts to aidHow do US policy changes target transgender rights and undermine democracy?

The humanitarian system and its principles are being destroyed. Over 1,000 people have been killed seeking aid in the past weeks in Gaza, caught between famine and bullets. With humanitarian actors systematically prevented from reaching people affected by crisis in many contexts, governments are turning to the private sector – security firms, consultants, and ex-military operatives. From Gaza to Sudan to Myanmar, this shift raises urgent questions. Is a privatised model of humanitarianism going to become dominant? What would it mean for humanitarian operations and principles? And how can it be proactively addressed? This episode examines what’s driving governments to outsource aid, and what this means for trust, principles, and the future of humanitarian response. Joshua Craze shares insights from his recent investigation into the operations of for-profit US company Fogbow in South Sudan. We hear how these dynamics play out on the ground in the West Bank from Oxfam’s Bushra Khalidi, and ODI Global’s Dustin Barter unpacks the wider implications for the international aid system. Guests Sara PantulianoDustin BarterJoshua CrazeBushra KhalidiRelated resources Fogbow operations in South Sudan and beyond raise red flags for faltering aid systemBeyond the reset: Five priorities for genuine humanitarian transformationWhat does the failure of humanitarianism in Gaza mean?The politics of hunger – can famine in Gaza and Sudan be stopped?The future of aid

This episode examines a challenge at the heart of development finance. Much energy is focused on mobilising more capital in low-income countries and emerging economies, but funding alone isn't enough. A deeper issue persists: there simply aren’t enough bankable projects – ventures that are ready to absorb investments at scale. Traditionally, development finance has been demand-led – waiting for the right opportunities to emerge. But this model is evolving. Some development institutions (DFIs) are now looking to actively help create the very markets we want to invest in. Our recent report explores this shift, highlighting how institutions like British International Investment (BII) and Norfund are stepping in to initiate entirely new commercial ventures in challenging markets. These aim to generate critical investments in sectors such as infrastructure, agriculture and healthcare. So what does it take to build truly investable opportunities from the ground up? Experts discuss how to create sustainable, locally owned ventures that can deliver lasting development impact. Guests Sara PantulianoPaddy CarterFrederique DahanShaun GithukuNoah Law, Related resources DFI sponsorship of new platforms and ventures: why and how?DFI sponsorship of new platforms and ventures: why and how?Risk, return and impactGridworks Development Partners LLPMedAccess

Climate disasters are intensifying globally, with vulnerable nations facing disproportionate impacts despite minimal contributions to global emissions. From prolonged droughts in East Africa to intensifying cyclones in the Pacific, these events reveal a troubling paradox: As the Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate demonstrates, countries must borrow to recover from disasters, yet face financial systems that: This episode examines three critical dimensions: Guests Moritz KraemerYussuf HusseinSarah Colenbrander, Resources: Tackling the Vicious Circle: The Interim Report of the Expert Review on Debt, Nature and Climate Healthy Debt on a Healthy Planet: Towards a virtuous circle of sovereign debt, nature and climate resilience Indebted: how to support countries heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues to secure long-term prosperity

Climate impacts are continuing to intensify. More severe storms, droughts, floods and heatwaves are inflicting devastation on the most vulnerable communities – those who also bear the least responsibility for the climate crisis. But as the need for climate action becomes ever more urgent, international aid is retreating. USAID has been dismantled, whilst wealthy countries across Europe have slashed their aid budgets. This episode asks what the aid cuts mean for the most climate-vulnerable countries. With fiscal space tightening and multilateralism on the decline, guests discuss how governments and international organisations can incentivise more private sector investment, scale up climate finance and channel it to where it’s most needed. We also hear what impact regional partnerships could have in delivering meaningful climate action in this new global landscape. Guests Sara PantulianoHans Peter LankesSara SchonhardtSir Nicholas Stern Related resources A Fair Share of Climate FinanceRevitalising finance for adaptation: what role for the multilateral climate process?Vulnerable nations on the brink: the double shock of aid cuts and US tariff increasesThe relationship between climate action and poverty reductionSmall change? Our projections for the conflict blind spot in climate finance by 2030

At a time of major geopolitical turbulence, Europe finds itself at a crossroads. Long regarded as a pillar of stability and multilateralism, the continent's role in today's increasingly divided world is being tested in numerous ways – as are its key institutions. There is a new fragility to Europe's external relationships – underscored by Trump's threats to impose tariffs on EU imports, and by disagreements on security guarantees for Ukraine. This episode dissects Europe's changing role and influence in the world today. Experts explore how European nations can come together to face external threats effectively, and identify some immediate opportunities for change. Among our guests is ODI Europe’s Board Chair, Ambassador João Vale de Almeida, who shares ideas put forward in his thought-provoking new book The Divorce of Nations: A Diplomat’s Inside View as the Global Order Collapses. We also hear from historian and political writer Timothy Garton Ash, and Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. Guests Sara PantulianoTimothy Garton AshAnand MenonJoão Vale de AlmeidaRelated resources The Divorce of Nations: A Diplomat’s Inside View as the Global Order CollapsesHomelands: A Personal History of EuropeHow is Ukraine redefining global security?Europe and the new world order: an updated approach to foreign engagementCan ‘the West’ be trusted? The future of European humanitarian aidNavigating aid and national interest in Ukraine: the development toolbox of European donors

Since 2011, Syria has been ravaged by conflict, foreign interventions, and political fragmentation – leaving millions displaced and communities in crisis. But amid the devastation, a new conversation is taking shape. Just months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a new interim government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa has formed. A recent poll shows 70% of Syrians feel hopeful, but that hope is colliding with hard realities. More than 1,300 people – many believed to be civilians – have been killed in Syria’s worst violence since the fall of the Assad regime, as clashes erupt between forces loyal to the new government and Assad holdouts. Meanwhile, reconstruction is stalled. Western sanctions, unpaid civil servants, and new US tariffs risk deepening the crisis. In this episode, we ask whether this fragile but hopeful moment for Syria can endure. Can international partners support recovery without repeating the mistakes of the past? And how can we centre the voices of Syrians in the process of rebuilding their country? Guests Sara PantulianoSana KikhiaLeen FouadAmy Rodgers Related resources Syria’s chance to build better, not backward Lifting sanctions on Syria: a bumpy path Tens of thousands of people forcibly disappeared: will the international community step up for Syrians? Syria's pursuit of justice: navigating accountability amidst ongoing turmoil Revolution and rupture: humanitarianism and human rights in Syria and Myanmar

Minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth are not just commodities. They are strategic assets which are shaping global power and the future of the energy transition. As US-China trade tensions escalate, countries across Africa (and elsewhere) where these minerals are found are now renegotiating their role in an increasingly fragmented global economy. This episode asks how Africa’s mineral wealth can truly benefit its people and future generations. Guests discuss the challenges countries face in adding value domestically, and whether there’s an opportunity to push for a more equitable, sustainable governance of the mineral supply chain. Drawing on the latest developments in the South China sea, Greenland and the new US-Ukraine minerals deal, we also hear how resource scarcity, trade, and geopolitical and economic interests are closely intertwined today against a backdrop of ongoing violence and instability. Guests Sara PantulianoAkim DaoudaRebecca NadinSilas Olan’gRelated resources The critical minerals race to net zero Critical minerals, critical moment: Africa’s role in the AI revolution The ‘strategic mirage’ of Africa’s green minerals wealth Why China is seeking greater presence in Africa – the strategy behind its financial deals

With economic uncertainty, rising debt burdens, and a growing share of the world’s poorest people living in fragile contexts, the stakes for the upcoming 4th Financing for Development Conference (FfD4) in Seville have never been higher. According to a recent OECD report, the gap between development financing needs and available resources could reach $6.4 trillion by 2030 if the global financing system isn’t significantly overhauled. The conference in June present a pivotal opportunity to ignite reform. It's a vital forum where UN members, international institutions, businesses, and civil society come together at the highest level to rethink how we fund global development. In this episode, we dissect the key questions set to shape discussions at FfD4. How can we mobilise the trillions needed to meet the SDGs? How can the global financial architecture be made more inclusive and responsive? And what bold steps must be taken to unlock investment where it’s needed most? Development finance experts share insights on multilateral development bank reform, the role of concessional finance, and opportunities to build a more sustainable, equitable future. Guests Sara PantulianoMónica Colomer, Alvaro Lario, Annalisa Prizzon Related resources Development finance needs major overhaul to achieve global goalsFinancing development at a crossroads: What's at stake and what reforms are needed?ODI Global at the Spring MeetingsAre Southern-led MDBs the future of development finance?MDB Insights Spring Meetings 2025Unlocking the potential of blended concessional finance: making aid work harderMaximising operational effectiveness and impact: key priorities for multilateral development banks

Development finance is no longer just about aid. It’s about power, priorities, and who gets to decide. For decades, institutions like the World Bank and IMF have set the agenda, with high-income countries holding the reins. But a shift is underway. Southern-led multilateral development banks (MDBs) – where borrowing nations are also the majority shareholders – are rewriting the rules. These banks, like CAF (Development Bank of Latin America) and the Trade and Development Bank (TDB) Group, bring something different to the table: speed, flexibility, and a laser focus on local needs. But they also face hurdles: higher borrowing costs, limited global visibility, and the challenge of financing a just climate transition in economies still grappling with poverty. With the Spring Meetings taking place later this month, this episode dives into the rise of these institutions. Are they the future of development finance? Can they complement – or even challenge – traditional MDBs? And what reforms are needed to unlock their full potential? Guests Sara PantulianoAlejandro BoteroChris HumphreyAdmassu TadesseRelated resources ODI Global resources on multilateral development banksSouthern-led multilateral channels for climate financeWhat makes an MDB an MDB? Southern-led multilateral banks and the sovereign debt crisisClimate-smart reform of multilateral development banks: priorities for the G20Investing for resilience: a panel discussion with Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank President Jin Liqun