Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns. I cover: (0:00) The $500B question (01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark (03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal (05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path (09:33) The AI market explosion (12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints (17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow (20:58) The disruption premium (23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from? (29:14) The final verdict

This is the single most important paper to come out in tech in recent weeks. Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen investigated whether generative AI is leading to job losses in roles most exposed to AI – and how these effects differ by age and the way AI is used. In this episode, I break down these results and their implications. I covered: (01:17) Key finding (03:32) What’s going on here? (06:13) A canary in the coal mine? (8:21) The dataset studied and why it matters (10:34) The sectors impacted and why it matters (12:37) Why don't firms just reduce salaries? (14:34) Historical parallels with electricity (17:20) How leadership impacts job losses (20:46) Implications for policy, education, equity (24:53) Outro Where to find me: - Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ - Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk - Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ---- Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1

Nick Thompson, CEO of The Atlantic, led one of the first major content licensing deals with OpenAI in 2024. In this conversation, he joins Azeem to unpack how AI is transforming media – and what that means for every business navigating the shifting economics of attention, trust, and discovery. We cover: (01:49) Journalism’s four horsemen (5:33) The collapse of search (9:07) Cloudflare’s counterattack (13:56) Is this the search-traffic fix? (17:42) Rise of the sovereign creator (22:57) Do great writers need editors? (26:22) Why conservatives win new media (27:17) How Substack drives discovery (31:08) East Coast vs. West Coast ethics (35:11) How Nick uses AI in writing (42:13) Is AI friend or foe to journalism? (45:32) The Atlantic’s survival plan Nick's links: The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasxthompson/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/nxthompson Substack: https://nxthompson.substack.com Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem ---- Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force. In this episode you’ll hear: Our new show This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Azeem’s links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukhttps://x.com/azeemTimestamps: (00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025 (01:23) #1: No AI Wall (03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment (05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans (06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF (08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify (09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records (10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear (11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately (12:01) What I missed (12:14) The CapEx boom around AI (13:56) The rise of humanoid robots (14:36) AI's impact on the workforce (18:40) Looking ahead (18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next (19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks" (21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble (23:02) A question for the future Production: Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

In this episode, I reflect on a whirlwind three-day visit to China - my first in over 20 years. And what I saw was remarkable. The infrastructure puts most of the West to shame. The AI isn't just hype - it's working at serious scale. And the electric vehicles? They're about to steamroll the global auto industry. Here's what really struck me during my whirlwind trip to Beijing and beyond. In this episode you'll hear: Infrastructure built at speed:Verticalised AI in action:EV cost leadership is set:The air quality transformation:Scale that defies comprehension:Our new show This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Azeem’s links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukhttps://x.com/azeemTimestamps: (00:00) Surprises at the airport (01:21) Immense scale (01:54) 3 areas of interest (02:37) Chinese infrastructure and engineering (03:22) ~180mph train, £17 fare (04:29) Multi-lane expressways built for scale (05:55) Development of AI in china (06:09) China leans into vertical AI (08:12) Apollo robotaxis: unit-cost positive (09:33) Yidu Tech: 5.5B health records (10:35) Squirrel AI outperforms top teachers (14:29) EVs & clean air (16:14) BYD x Octopus: earn by charging (18:30) EV boom improves Beijing air (19:56) Luxury Chinese EV interior (21:08) Closing thoughts Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

Broadcasting live from Paris, I tackle three massive technology stories that are reshaping our digital future. From Apple's stunning interface redesign to the collapse of traditional search advertising, and Sam Altman's vision of an AI singularity that's already begun - this episode captures the tectonic shifts happening in tech right now. I cover: (1:32) WWDC 2025: Apple’s AI challenges and new UI (6:06) The decline of Google’s ad model (10:08) Sam Altman’s Gentle Singularity essay (19:37) Live audience Q&A (19:45) Is the singularity really about Altman? (22:13) Is France carrying Europe’s AI dreams? (24:58) Are you seeing promising AI hardware? (27:42) How will AI change software pricing? Our new show This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Azeem’s links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=ukhttps://x.com/azeemProduction by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

This week, I'm speaking with Kevin Weil, Chief Product Officer at OpenAI, who is steering product development at what might be the world's most important company right now. We talk about: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:37) OpenAI's latest launches (03:43) What it's like being CPO of OpenAI (04:34) How AI will reshape our lives (07:23) How young people use AI differently (09:29) Addressing fears about AI (11:47) Kevin's "Oh sh!t" moment (14:11) Why have so many models within ChatGPT? (18:19) The unpredictability of AI product progress (24:47) Understanding model “evals” (27:21) How important is prompt engineering? (29:18) Defining “AI agent” (37:00) Why OpenAI views coding as a prime target use-case (41:24) The "next model test” for any AI startup (46:06) Jony Ive's role at OpenAI (47:50) OpenAI's hardware vision (50:41) Quickfire questions (52:43) When will we get AGI? Kevin's links: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevinweil/ Twitter/X: @kevinweil Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Our new show: This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd.

Economist and polymath Tyler Cowen challenges Silicon Valley's optimistic projections about AI-driven economic growth. We explore what could slow AI's economic impact, despite its remarkable capabilities – and where humans find the new normal amidst major shifts. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:47) The problem with Silicon Valley's AI-driven growth projections (06:02) The institutional bottleneck to AI progress (10:49) Markets aren’t pricing in a radical AI future (12:53) Are we heading for a great job displacement? (17:02) Is GDP still worth talking about? (19:11) Who does AI benefit most? (21:11) Will AI cause a human identity crisis? (27:11) The education system’s failure to adapt (35:34) How the Gulf could become a geopolitical powerhouse (39:10) Could AI change religion? (46:46) Closing thoughts Tyler's links: Marginal Revolution Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/tylercowen Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 LTD

Thomas Dohmke, CEO of GitHub, joins Azeem to explore how AI is fundamentally transforming software development. In this episode you'll hear: Thomas's links: https://github.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/ashtom/https://x.com/ashtomAzeem's links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharhttps://x.com/azeemOur new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Aaron Levie, CEO & co-founder of Box, joins Azeem Azhar to explore how an “AI-first” mindset is reshaping every layer of Box – from product road-maps to pricing – and what that teaches the rest of us about building faster, smarter organisations. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (02:04) The "lump of labor fallacy" in sci-fi books (07:37) When individual productivity gains don’t translate to teams (12:32) Box’s Friday AI demos (21:23) How agents might redefine 100 years of management science (26:37) A lesson on AI innovation from the early days of Ford (29:52) Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, and Sergey Brin are coding again? (35:16) Pricing in a post-AI agent world (38:43) Cheaper tokens, heavier usage: AI’s margin math (43:02) Solving AI’s verifiability problem (48:24) How Aaron uses AI in his personal life Aaron's links: https://www.box.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/boxaaron/ https://x.com/levieAzeem’s links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharhttps://x.com/azeemThis conversation was recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, live every Friday at 9 am PT / 12 pm ET. Catch it via Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Lennart Heim, a researcher and information scientist at RAND Corporation, joins Azeem Azhar to unpack a provocative claim: China is catching up with US AI capabilities, but it doesn't matter. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:19) Lennart’s core thesis (03:26) Why compute matters so much (07:31) The investment split between model R&D and model execution (11:18) How test-time compute impacts costs (16:14) The geopolitics of compute (21:32) Why does the U.S have more compute capacity than China? (25:01) The trade-off between economic needs and national-security needs (31:54) How technology change might shift the battlegrounds (35:33) Dealing with compute and power concentration (48:19) Concluding quick-fire question Lennart's links: https://twitter.com/ohlennarthttps://heim.xyz/Azeem's links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharhttps://x.com/azeemThis was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy, joins Azeem to discuss the Iberian blackout and how we can create a more stable, flexible, and resilient energy grid for the future. This conversation digs into grid technology, market structures, and the real opportunities of the clean energy transition. Greg's links: https://twitter.com/g__jhttps://uk.linkedin.com/in/gregsjacksonhttps://octopus.energy/Azeem's links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharhttps://x.com/azeem

Physicist and entrepreneur Steve Hsu, whose startup Superfocus tackles hallucination problems in large language models, joins Azeem to discuss AI agents, hallucination challenges and what happens when technology meets labor markets. They discuss: (01:31) The deeper shift that Superfocus represents (07:00) Will models overcome hallucination? (10:15) AI Agents can replace 80-90% of call center calls (12:27) What it’s like showing customer support AI to customer support people (22:36) China's mayors are like mini CEOs (30:05) What will matter most in the supposed "AI race"? (35:58) DeepSeek was not part of the Chinese Government (38:23) How open source will change the future of deployment (40:59) What the public doesn't understand about AI tail risk (48:01) How AI plush toys can teach French to 2-year-olds This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through Exponential View on Substack. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Sir Niall Ferguson, renowned historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins Azeem Azhar to discuss the evolving relationship between the U.S. and China, Trump's foreign policy doctrine, and what the new global economic and security order might look like. (00:00) What most analysts are missing about Trump (05:43) The win-win outcome in Europe–U.S relations (11:17) How the U.S. is reestablishing deterrence (15:50) Can the U.S. economy weather the impact of tariffs? (23:33) Niall's read on China (29:29) How is China performing in tech? (33:35) What might happen with Taiwan (42:43) Predictions for the coming world order Sir Niall Ferguson's links: Time MachineWar of the WorldDoom: The Politics of Catastrophehttps://x.com/nfergusAzeem's links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharhttps://x.com/azeem Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar" on 28 March. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

In this episode, Azeem Azhar speaks with Ryan Petersen, CEO and founder of logistics platform Flexport, about the current state of global trade amidst escalating tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruption. Ryan offers unique insights from the frontlines of the US-China trade war and explores how businesses are adapting to a rapidly changing landscape. (00:00) Episode trailer (01:12) Ryan's overall thoughts and predictions (03:40) Why shipping is crucial to your everyday life (08:07) Why tariffs may actually increase global shipping (11:34) Who’s pausing their China shipments? (14:29) The mindset of Flexport customers right now (16:02) Is this the end of globalization? (21:48) The fragility and resiliency of global trade (25:27) The most underrated story in the world (30:25) How tech has changed global trade (36:31) Who will win in the new trade settings? (41:20) What could a U.S-China trade deal look like? Ryan's links: Flexport https://www.flexport.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/typesfast LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/rpetersen/ Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Azeem Azhar welcomes Packy McCormick, founder and investor at Not Boring, to discuss the current tech landscape. In this episode you'll hear: (01:50) What Packy got wrong (and right) about Web3 (10:17) The shift to "know thyself and know thyself-nots" (14:28) Europe just woke up (18:46) Bits and atoms are cool again (21:10) London airport shutdown reveals a deeper challenge (23:32) A new kind of home energy infrastructure (29:28) A theory on Eric Schmidt's new CEO role (34:08) What's the role of nuclear in a solar + battery world? (40:33) The coming tech boom Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Packy's links: Azeem's links: Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

Anthropic's co-founder and chief scientist Jared Kaplan discusses AI's rapid evolution, the shorter-than-expected timeline to human-level AI, and how Claude's "thinking time" feature represents a new frontier in AI reasoning capabilities. In this episode you'll hear: Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar", a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET on Exponential View. You can tune in through my Substack linked below. The format is experimental and we'd love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at live@exponentialview.co. Timestamps: (00:00) Episode trailer (01:27) Jared's updated prediction for reaching human-level intelligence (08:12) What will limit scaling laws? (11:13) How long will we wait between model generations? (16:27) Why test-time scaling is a big deal (21:59) There’s no reason why DeepSeek can’t be competitive algorithmically (25:31) Has Anthropic changed their approach to safety vs speed? (30:08) Managing the paradoxes of AI progress (32:21) Can interpretability and monitoring really keep AI safe? (39:43) Are model incentives misaligned with public interests? (42:36) How should we prepare for electricity-level impact? (51:15) What Jared is most excited about in the next 12 months Jared's links: https://www.anthropic.com/Azeem's links: https://www.exponentialview.co/https://www.azeemazhar.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/azharhttps://x.com/azeem

Kevin Kelly is a co-founder of Wired Magazine and a renowned author and futurist. Decades ago, Kevin predicted much of today's technological and cultural landscape. In this discussion, he presents his new bold vision for what’s coming next: The Handoff to Bots. In this episode, you’ll hear: Kevin’s links: Website/blog: https://kk.org/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/kevin2kelly Instagram: / kevin2kelly Azeem's links: Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?ori... Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (02:17) The baby black hole behind Kevin's theory (10:49) Kevin's thesis: The handoff to bots (15:05) This world is closer than we think (19:32) The role of humans in this new world (21:23) Could monopoly influence pose a problem? (28:33) The nature of “struggle” in this new world (32:42) Could we see countries competing for population? (36:06) How a scarcity of humans might change what we value (42:30) What would 1994 Kevin think of 2025 Kevin's blog? Production: Production by supermix.io

Kai-Fu Lee joins me to discuss AI in 2025. Kai-Fu is a storied AI researcher, investor, inventor and entrepreneur based in Taiwan. As one of the leading AI experts based in Asia, I wanted to get his take on this particular market. Key insights: Connect with us: Exponential View

Nathan Benaich, Founder and General Partner of Air Street Capital, joins me to discuss AI in 2025. From runaway consumer adoption to evolving enterprise moats, from still-elusive AI-driven drug breakthroughs to the renewed vigour in robotics, several core themes stood out. 1. Frontier models & AI at scale In 2024, we witnessed the astonishing growth of frontier models and their deployment on a massive scale. OpenAI’s GPT-4 and GPT-4 o1, Anthropic’s Claude and Google’s Gemini have all demonstrated that being “at the frontier” is increasingly the price of admission. 2. Consumers, voice and infinite worlds On the consumer side, we have reason to believe 2025 will be the year of AI-enabled workflows that feel truly natural. Voice, multimodality and integration into daily routines—like transcribing my morning thoughts during a commute—are becoming routine. 3. Accelerating science & drug discovery While AI accelerates lab automation and data analysis—improving reproducibility and speeding up processes—the promised “AI-designed blockbuster drug” is still in the pipeline. Clinical timelines and regulatory hurdles do not compress easily. 4. Geopolitics, funding and the sovereign question As training costs skyrocket and models require unimaginable scale, questions mount… Who funds these massive compute requirements? Will nation-states view these labs as strategic assets, akin to telecoms or chipmakers? 5. From explosive capability gains to refined utility We’ve grown numb to what was once astonishing—perfect speech synthesis, infinite text generation, zero-shot coding. The capabilities of models now surpass human levels in many benchmarks. The next major shifts may be subtler, or simply less obviously spectacular. Connect with us: Exponential ViewNathan Benaich