Horns of a Dilemma

We host Shivshankar Menon to discuss his recent article, "A New World Order? Be Careful What You Wish For." Menon, the former national security advisor to the Indian prime minister, examines the historical rarity of stable world orders and the dangers of contemporary nostalgia for a perceived "golden age" of stability. The conversation explores the tension between a globalized economy and fragmented local politics, questioning whether the current distribution of power can support a formal international order. Menon characterizes the present era as a "world adrift" and argues that progress often emerges from such periods of political disorder. We also address India's strategic role in navigating this environment through issue-based coalitions rather than traditional spheres of influence. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Francis J. Gavin Producer: Jordan Morning

Nathan Wood, author of "Bombs, Bots, and the Principle of Distinction: The Law of Armed Conflict and Contemporary Warfare," speaks on the principle of distinction in an age of autonomous warfare. He argues that while some concerns about these technologies are valid, we must move beyond general debates to address the specific legal and operational realities of concrete systems. Our conversation explores how the US military can utilize these advancements while maintaining a fundamental, felt sense of human responsibility. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

Eyck Freymann and Harry Halem, co-authors of "The Arsenal of Democracy: Keeping China Deterred in an Age of Hard Choices," join us to cover a range of topics, including US–China military balance, defense procurement, and the critical need for aligned industrial capacity, technological R&D, and military doctrine. Through historical models, potential reforms, and the importance of logistics and innovation, this episode offers a comprehensive look at how the US can strategically deter China into the 2030s. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

We speak with Bence Nemeth from King's College London about his article, "How a US 'Suez Moment' Could Hollow the US Alliance System." The discussion covers the historical context, theoretical framework, and potential scenarios that could unfold if US military primacy were to decline. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

Tyler Bowen from the US Naval War College joins us to discuss his recent TNSR article "Threading the Needle: The Logic of Conventional Coercion in Nuclear Crises." We discuss the renewed interest in nuclear deterrence given recent global security developments such as Russia's war in Ukraine and China's nuclear expansion. The conversation also explores the challenges and frameworks, particularly Bowen's "conventional options theory," key historical case studies involving nuclear crises, and their lessons for modern policymakers.

Dr. Marina Henke, a professor at the Hertie School in Berlin and visiting professor at SAIS Johns Hopkins, discusses the motivations for writing her article "Best Practices in Grand Strategy Design," inspired by Germany's strategic reorientation post-Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She delves into the definition of grand strategy, its critical components, real-world applications, and the importance of continuous strategic updates. The discussion also critiques common flaws in recent grand strategy documents and emphasizes the essential role of public engagement in strategic discourse. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning

Sheena Chestnut Greitens sat down with Ambassador Kang Kyung-wha, the Republic of Korea's ambassador to the United States. Recorded before a live audience at The University of Texas at Austin on December 3, the conversation explores the deepening alignment between Seoul and Washington. Ambassador Kang and Dr. Greitens discuss the implementation of the recent $350 billion Korean government-led investment in the United States, focusing on seven key sectors including shipbuilding, semiconductors, and nuclear energy. The discussion addresses the challenges of workforce training and visa policy following recent immigration enforcement actions in Georgia. The conversation also covers the shifting geopolitical landscape, specifically the implications of deepened military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Finally, the ambassador outlines priorities for modernizing the alliance, including the transfer of wartime operational control and cooperation on nuclear fuel cycles and nuclear-powered submarines. This event was supported by the Asia Policy Program at The University of Texas at Austin, the Clements Center for National Security, the Strauss Center for International Security and Law, the LBJ School of Public Affairs, and the Korea Economic Institute of America.

Dr. Carter Malkasian joins us to explore how the "democratization of violence"—driven by the availability of assault rifles and explosives—empowered non-state actors and challenged state authority throughout the Cold War. The conversation also addresses the role of Islam in legitimizing non-state violence and how foreign intervention accelerated these trends. Malkasian's latest article, "Wars of the Greater Middle East, 1945–92," is featured in TNSR Volume 9, Issue 1.

Dr. Joshua Geltzer, former Deputy Assistant to the President and Legal Advisor to the National Security Council, shares his extensive experience on two crucial topics: artificial intelligence in national security and the evolving policies surrounding hostage recovery. He offers an in-depth look into both the potential and challenges of AI and the heart-wrenching yet vital efforts in recovering American hostages and detainees.

We sit down with Dartmouth national security scholars Jennifer Lind and Michael Mastanduno as they compare Cold War export control strategies with modern attempts to limit China's access to sensitive US technologies. They delve into three key lessons from the historical COCOM regime, discuss the evolving technological competition with China, and reflect on the feasibility of current US policies. Their article "Hard Then Harder Now: COCOM's Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China," is featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4.

Lauren Sukin (University of Oxford) and Nicola Leveringhaus (King's College London) join us to discuss the evolving global landscape of nuclear security. Together, we examine the roundtable essays featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4, focusing on shifts in nuclear politics catalyzed by China's rise, changing domestic politics, and increased multipolar competition. The discussion delves into the interconnectedness of global nuclear dynamics, the importance of domestic political drivers, and the implications for US and European security strategies. Roundtable essays: https://tnsr.org/roundtable/navigating-the-new-nuclear-map/

Chris Walsh and Igor Khrestin from the George W. Bush Institute join Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens for this discussion dealing with the historical context and current challenges in U.S. policy toward North Korea. They touch on the role of human rights and democracy, the impact of China's and Russia's support for North Korea, and potential strategies for future administrations. Along with former Senator Cory Gardner, Walsh and Khrestin co-authored the article "US Policy Toward North Korea: Quo Vadis?" featured in Volume 8, Issue 4 of the journal. Tune in for a comprehensive exploration of one of America's most persistent foreign policy dilemmas.

Dr. Jeffrey Friedman, an associate professor at Dartmouth College, reveals striking findings that seasoned national security professionals often misjudge uncertainty. This overview of his latest TNSR article, "The World Is More Uncertain Than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials," covers how minor training can improve decision-making accuracy and highlights the importance of structured feedback and better calibration in national security judgments.

Mariya Grinberg, assistant professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, speaks with us on the topic of her new book, "Trade in War: Economic Cooperation Across Enemy Lines." In our talk she challenges the conventional wisdom that states stop trading during wartime. We discuss her 'wartime trade theory,' exploring how states balance military benefits and economic costs. The conversation also touches on modern applications, such as the US-China relationship and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting how trade dynamics evolve in wartime scenarios.

We engage with Erica Lonergan and Jack Snyder, authors of "Cultural Change in Military Organizations: Hackers and Warriors in the US Army." The discussion delves into the fusion of cyber and traditional military cultures within the U.S. Army, focusing on the creation of the Cyber Corps and its implications for national security. The conversation highlights the backstory, challenges, and future of integrating a cyber warrior ethos into the military, sparking considerations for a potential new independent cyber service.

Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest chat with Richard Maass on the topics of his article, "Legal Deterrence by Denial: Strategic Initiative and International Law in the Gray Zone," featured in Volume 8, Issue 3 of TNSR. Their conversation spans topics such as the importance of defining gray zone aggression, criminalizing tactics, and improving enforcement and attribution to deter such activities. They also touch on real-world examples of gray zone tactics by countries like Russia, China, and Iran, illustrating the difficulties defenders face under current legal and political frameworks.

In this episode, Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens are joined by Jon Caverley, an esteemed national security and China scholar, to discuss his article, "So What? Reassessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan," featured in Volume 8, Issue 3 of TNSR. Jon, a professor of strategic and operational research at the United States Naval War College, shares his insights on the military ramifications of a Chinese-controlled Taiwan and its strategic importance. This enlightening discussion explores the operational balance of power in the Pacific, the role of space-based capabilities, and the broader implications for U.S. defense strategy. Join us for a detailed analysis of this pivotal issue. Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/so-what-reassessing-the-military-implications-of-chinese-control-of-taiwan/

Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest interview Herb Lin, a national security expert from Stanford University. They discuss his article, "Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons: A Commonsense Approach to Understanding Costs and Benefits," and explore the complex interplay between AI, nuclear strategy, and human control. Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/artificial-intelligence-and-nuclear-weapons-a-commonsense-approach-to-understanding-costs-and-benefits/

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, host Ryan Vest sits down with Sheena Chestnut Greitens to interview scholars Nicholas Anderson and Daryl Press about their article, "Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang’s Other Deterrent," featured in Volume 8, Issue 3 of the Texas National Security Review. Anderson and Press challenge the conventional wisdom that North Korean artillery could devastate Seoul during a conflict. They discuss the origins of their research, the methodology behind their military campaign analysis, and the important implications for policymakers, including the unexpected resilience of urban areas and the crucial steps South Korea has taken to mitigate potential damage. Tune in for an insightful discussion that reevaluates the artillery threat on the Korean Peninsula and explores broader security implications. Read the article: https://tnsr.org/2025/06/lost-seoul-assessing-pyongyangs-other-deterrent/ For additional information on the model, underlying data, and other supplementary materials, please visit the online appendix at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/86HBGS.

TNSR was saddened to hear of the passing of Dr. Joseph Nye on May 6. He was a titan in the field of national security, a gifted professor, a dedicated servant of the people, and a great friend. In honor of his life's work, we are re-airing an episode of Horns of a Dilemma from last year when Frank Gavin, Chair of the TNSR editorial board, sat down with Nye to discuss his memoir and a range of other historical and contemporary topics.