Euro Matters – the European Central Bank Podcast

Tariffs are the highest in a century and the war in Iran has triggered a fresh energy shock. Christiane Nickel explains how uncertainty caused by trade policy and war is affecting euro area growth and inflation. Recorded on 27 March 2026 and published on 7 April 2026.

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 19 March 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_march.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260319~3057739775.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260319~30247d385d.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202603_eurosystemstaff~da4f97a747.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Are we really watching cash disappear, or is that just what people on TikTok say? In this episode of What the Euro?!, our host Catherine digs into the real story behind cash. To find out everything you need to know, she speaks to experts about how we’re using it, why it matters, why it’ll stay and what’s changing with new banknote designs and the digital euro. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Our podcast has a new name – welcome to Euro Matters! In the first episode of our In Conversation series, President Christine Lagarde shares her own path to financial knowledge and explains why knowing about money matters – especially for women. Recorded on 17 February 2026 and published on 3 March 2026. In this episode: 01:10 – Why do financial topics make people feel uncomfortable? 02:15 – President Lagarde’s early experiences with managing finances 03:15 – Why is low financial knowledge a problem in Europe? And why does it matter for women in particular? 05:38 – How can women build confidence and take ownership of their finances? 06:40 – President Lagarde talks about the first time she realised that financial independence matters 07:50 – President Lagarde’s first jobs 08:55 – The best financial advice President Lagarde has ever received 09:52 – The financial advice President Lagarde would give to her younger self 10:25 – President Lagarde shares her hot tip ECB web page on the gender gap https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/financial_literacy_europe/The-gender-gap-in-financial-literacy/html/index.en.html Financial literacy in Europe https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/financial_literacy_europe/html/index.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ EuroSteps Walking Challenge https://www.walk15.app/en/download

How safe are our banks in the euro area? The world around us is changing – geopolitical tensions , AI and climate change can all pose risks to banks. So how can banks best manage their risks? What are supervisors focusing on in the coming year? And what measures are they taking to make supervision less complex? Our host Stefania Secola speaks to Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch to find out. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 4 February 2026 and published on 17 February 2026. In this episode: 00:57 How safe is your bank? How are euro area banks doing? How does the ECB – together with national supervisors – examine their health? 03:51 What risks should banks be focusing on? How is the external environment in which banks operate changing? How can risks from geopolitical uncertainty, digitalisation and climate change feed through to banks? 06:02 How is supervision evolving? In a changing external environment, we need new strategies to properly manage new risks. How is European supervision adapting to become more efficient, effective and risk-focused? 08:57 Why is supervision so complex? Modern banks are complex, operating across borders and with different business models. How can we reduce undue complexity in supervision? 10:54 Let’s talk about competitiveness Do regulation and supervision hinder the competitiveness of euro area banks? What does the banking sector need to do to stay competitive, and how can European banking supervision help? 13:02 Our guest’s hot tips Claudia Buch shares her hot tips. Streamlining supervision, safeguarding resilience: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/framework/approach/html/simplification.en.html Governing Council proposes simplification of EU banking rules: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr251211~aa5c9271b8.en.html Banking supervision explained https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/about/banking-supervision-explained/html/index.en.html Espresso Economics https://www.youtube.com/@Espresso_Economics ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 5 February 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_february.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260205~50858cb986.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260205~001d26959b.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260205~0c74e825a7.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

How much do you spend on food every month? Food is one expense we simply can’t go without – we all need to eat, after all! But you may have noticed that your morning eggs, lunchtime sandwich, or favourite late-night snack is costing more than it used to. How have food prices changed over the past year? What’s driving the price increases? And what’s in store for our grocery bills in 2026? Our host Stefania Secola speaks to economists Elisabeth Wieland and Zivile Zekaite to answer these questions. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 20 January 2026 and published on 26 January 2026. In this episode: 02:23 Is food really getting more expensive? How do we track changes in food prices? How did food inflation develop in 2025? And what role does media coverage play? 05:39 Which foods are especially affected? Some prices are up, others are down. Why have items like coffee, cocoa and meat been hit the hardest? 08:26 Have some products also become cheaper? While meat and sweet treats have become more expensive, items like vegetables and butter have become cheaper. The overall food basket tells an interesting story and is influenced by its different components. 09:13 What’s driving price increases for certain products? Raw material costs, climate change, and supply and demand factors all affect food prices. Rising wages and energy costs also play a role. 12:35 Why do food prices matter so much? Food is a big part of our budget and cannot be replaced by other items. Also, since we go to the supermarket often, food prices play a big role in shaping our inflation expectations. 19:10 What can we do about rising food prices? Temporary vs structural changes – how do they differ? And what’s the ECB’s role when it comes to inflation and food prices? 20:52 What’s in store for our grocery bills in 2026? Good news: food inflation is set to ease in the coming year. So, what does this mean for your wallet? 22:06 Our guests’ hot tips Elisabeth and Zivile share their hot tips. Further reading: Inside the food basket: what is behind recent food inflation? (Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2026/html/ecb.ebbox202508_07~8e10bb606b.en.html Consumer Expectations Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html Elisabeth’s hot tip: use food price comparison websites and apps for tracking prices Zivile’s hot tip: look at the price per kilogram to find the best-value food ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

The euro family is growing. Bulgaria is gearing up to adopt the euro. But what hopes and fears come with the transition? And were there similar feelings in other countries? To explore these questions, our podcast team spoke with content creators Mihaela, Elena and Stefan (also known as Chefo) to hear their perspectives on the transition. Meanwhile, in the podcast studio, our host Stefania Secola explored the topic with ECB researcher Ferdinand Dreher, who shed light on why public sentiment towards the euro tends to improve once people start using it in their everyday lives. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 11 and 16 December. Published on 22 December 2025. In this episode: 00:53 Looking back at Germany’s adoption of the euro Ferdinand shares his personal memories of Germany’s transition to the euro. 04:46 What are the biggest concerns around Bulgaria’s euro adoption? Concerns arise with every major change. We asked three Bulgarian content creators – Mihaela, Elena and Stefan (also known as Chefo) – about their biggest concerns regarding euro adoption. 08:00 What does the research show? What do surveys reveal about people’s concerns? What are the biggest concerns, and what are the initial inconveniences of the transition? 13:07 What are the biggest hopes around Bulgaria’s euro adoption? Alongside fears, there are also hopes. Mihaela, Elena and Stefan share their perspectives on the positive aspects of euro adoption. 15:55 How do people’s feelings evolve after adoption? Surveys show a significant shift in sentiment from the last survey before adoption to the first survey after adoption. What drives this change? Does clear communication play a key role? 20:13 What about Eurosceptics? Does Euroscepticism persist after adoption? 21:30 What about concerns around national identity? Do people feel that their national identity is under threat? Euro coins have a European side and a national side – does this help? Can European and national identities coexist? 23:53 Concerns are normal, but benefits will come What is the message for countries who may adopt the euro in the future? 25:26 Our guest’s hot tip Ferdinand shares his hot tip with listeners. Blog post by Ferdinand Dreher and Nils Hernborg “Love at second sight: support for the euro before and after adoption” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20251104~cf577c8f68.en.html Design of the euro coins – Bulgaria https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/coins/html/bg.en.html Bulgaria on the doorstep of the euro area https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/changeover/bulgaria/html/index.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 18 December 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251218~3a10402adb.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251218~58b0e415a6.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251218~f264376788.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

When it comes to the risks to financial stability, things seem to have settled down a bit. But with trade tensions, an unpredictable US economic policy, geopolitical issues, a potential AI bubble and the rise of stablecoins, there is plenty to keep an eye on. Has the global environment really become less uncertain? And how do all these factors impact financial stability? To explore these questions and more, our host Paul Gordon speaks with financial stability expert John Fell. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 24 November 2025 and published on 27 November 2025. In this episode: 01:25 How stable is the financial system? The EU and the United States reached a trade agreement, and the economic impact of trade uncertainty has been milder than expected. But the full effects of the policy changes are yet to be seen. So, what does this mean for financial stability? 04:14 Is there an AI bubble? The term “AI bubble” is on everyone’s lips right now . But bubbles are hard to identify and even harder to differentiate from legitimate growth. So, are valuations stretched? What about market concentration and circular funding in the AI industry? And how exactly are companies funding investment in AI? 06:15 If there is a bubble, what could cause it to burst? There is significant leverage behind AI investments. Returns will largely depend on how widely AI is adopted. Could AI become a general-purpose technology, like the railways did? 08:15 What about the rise of private credit? How do private credit markets differ from equity financing? Why are risks to euro area financial stability increasing as private markets expand? And how does all this relate to systemic risk in the banking sector and the build-up of AI infrastructure? 11:23 Are stablecoins really stable? Despite what the name suggests, stablecoins carry liquidity run risks that could affect financial stability. With rapid growth and increasing links to traditional finance, what risks does this innovation create? 15:11 What’s the situation for government financing? Governments have made progress in reducing debt levels since the pandemic. But in some euro area countries, debt remains too high and pressures to increase spending – for instance on defence – are rising. While this poses one of the biggest risks to financial stability, it could also be an opportunity for long-term growth if properly managed. 18:07 What about banks? Given the potential AI bubble, questions around the sustainability of government budgets and the rise in stablecoins, where does this leave euro area banks? Profitability is strong and non-performing loan ratios are historically low. So, how is the banking sector doing overall? 20:13 Our guest’s hot tip John Fell shares his hot tip with listeners. Financial Stability Review at a glance https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Financial Stability Review, November 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202511~263b5810d4.en.html Chip War, Chris Miller https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Chip-War-Worlds-Critical-Technology/dp/1982172002

Our payment habits are changing. With digital payments on the rise, we need to preserve people’s freedom to choose how to pay: there’s cash, card, online transfers – and soon, we could have a digital euro. But what is the digital euro, and how will it work? Will it replace cash? Concerns about data security and government control have sparked debate around the digital euro, often fuelled by disinformation. We separate fact from fiction as our host Stefania Secola teams up with Aidas Palubinskas from EU Finance Podcast to speak to Executive Board member Piero Cipollone about modernising our money. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 4 November 2025 and published on 13 November 2025. In this episode: 02:18 The digital what? What is the digital euro, and how will it work in practice? Don’t we already pay digitally? 13:48 What will happen to cash? Would introducing the digital euro mean the end of cash? And could it take away business from banks and other financial service providers? 16:25 How secure would the digital euro be really? What about hackers? Will our money be safe, and will the digital euro affect the integrity of the payments system? 19:31 Did someone say Big Brother? Will central banks, governments and other authorities have access to our data ? How private will our payments really be? 24:52 When will we have a digital euro? Where are we in the process and what are the next steps? How are EU institutions like the European Commission and the European Parliament involved in the digital euro project? 29:17 Our guests’ hot tips Piero Cipollone shares his hot tip. EU Finance Podcast – the future of finance https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-finance-podcast-future-finance_en Digital euro https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/html/index.en.html President Lagarde explains the next digital euro phase https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQd60z9jfjV/?igsh=MTV2OW4zNXp5cHJvNA== The ECB Podcast: The digital euro, demystified https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod231024_episode71.en.html Press release: Eurosystem moving to next phase of digital euro project, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr251030~8c5b5beef0.en.html The ECB Blog: Making euro cash fit for the future https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2025/html/ecb.blog20250804~9d3993abe0.en.html Fit of the digital euro in the payment ecosystem https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/digital_euro/timeline/profuse/shared/pdf/ecb.deprep251030_digital_euro_fit_payment_ecosystem_report.en.pdf

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 30 October 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_october.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251030~4f74dde15e.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251030~cf0540b5c0.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251030~25d99d5b1c.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

The verdict on climate change is bleaker than ever before. The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is rapidly shrinking – equivalent to just three years of emissions at current rates. What is the scientific framework known as planetary boundaries? What’s science telling us about the economic impact of climate change? And how is the ECB addressing climate and nature-related risks? Our host Paul Gordon speaks to Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and Irene Heemskerk, head of the ECB’s climate change centre, to find out why. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 8 October 2025 and published on 14 October 2025. In this episode: 01:48 Where do we stand in the fight against climate change? What is science telling us? What could get us back on track? 05:58 Is climate change attracting enough attention? Is it being overshadowed by other challenges, like the war in Ukraine or geopolitical fragmentation? How is climate change connected to the economy? And what level of risk are we facing? 10:30 What are planetary boundaries? What is the planetary boundaries framework? 14:50 The phases of climate change How has global warming evolved over time? Are we heading for disaster? Is the 1.5°C threshold a goal or a limit? 19:15 Why is our economy dependent on climate change? Why do climate insights matter to the work of a central bank? How does the ECB take climate change into account? What risks does climate change pose to our primary mandate, price stability? And is it too late for us to take action? 23:03 What is the “right pace” for transitioning to a carbon-neutral economy? How can we balance the need for rapid change with economic interests ? 26:15 Does every step matter? What’s needed for an orderly transition? What progress has been made in recent years, and what decisions could accelerate it further? 31:55 Our guests’ hot tips Johan and Irene share their hot tips. Johan’s hot tip: The EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems (published on 2 October 2025) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01201-2/abstract TED Talks by Johan Rockström https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgqtrlixYR4 (2010) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv-tDrv__mc (2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sl28fkrozE (2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl6VhCAeEfQ (2024) Climate change and the ECB https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/html/index.en.html The ECB Podcast: The ECB’s climate and nature plan: our path to a greener future https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod240125_episode78.en.html The tipping points of climate change – and where we stand https://www.ted.com/talks/johan_rockstrom_the_tipping_points_of_climate_change_and_where_we_stand?subtitle=en&geo=de ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

Banks are the backbone of our economy. In a rapidly changing environment, they need to adapt and stay competitive to keep providing funding to people and businesses. But so does ECB Banking Supervision. What are we doing to become more efficient, effective and risk-focused? And how are we simplifying supervision while safeguarding resilience? Our host Stefania Secola speaks to Supervisory Board member Sharon Donnery to find out. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 1 October 2025 and recorded on 24 September 2025. In this episode: 01:10 How are Europe’s banks doing? What is going well? What about the challenges banks face, like those coming from geopolitical tensions, digitalisation and the climate crisis? And are we seeing signs of deterioration in banks’ asset quality? 04:12 Are the current rules too complex? Are Europe’s banks over-regulated? Why does a complex business like banking need sufficiently developed rules? And is there room to make things simpler for both supervisors and banks? 05:34 Does simplification mean deregulation? How do they differ from one another? And how will we put guardrails in place to safeguard the resilience we have worked so hard to build in the banking sector? 08:33 How are we simplifying how we supervise banks? What concrete steps have we taken? How will these change our regular health check for banks and the way we conduct stress tests? 11:22 Who is involved in simplifying supervision? How do we make sure that the right people are involved? And how are banks, banking federations, academics and others involved in the work that’s being done? 13:04 What does simplification mean for banks, supervisors and customers? More efficiency, shorter timelines and better use of limited resources? And how can banking union give customers more options when it comes to products and services? 15:53 What about simplifying regulation? Beyond how we supervise banks, what steps are being taken to simplify the rules? What is being done at the European level, and how is our work on supervision feeding into that? 18:22 Our guest’s hot tip Sharon shares her hot tip with our listeners. Further reading: As simple as possible, but not simpler https://www.bankingsupervision.europa... Sharon’s hot tip: Making European supervision more efficient, effective and risk-focused https://www.bankingsupervision.europa... ECB Instagram / europeancentralbank

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 September 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 September 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_september.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 11 September 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250911~a13675b834.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 September 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp250911~6afb7a9490.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 September 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds250911~df624f06ba.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 11 September 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202509_ecbstaff~c0da697d54.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 24 July 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 24 July 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250724~a66e730494.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 24 July 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp250724~50bc70e13f.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 24 July 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds250724~8cbca58e07.en.pdf?df0653cc32352ba804c7d1262686b588 European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html Published and recorded during our press conference on 24 July 2025 #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB

Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? What do US tariff threats mean for the ECB? How does the ECB support smaller countries in the Eurosystem? And is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future? In the last episode of our Sintra series, our host Stefania Secola takes us on a walk around the ECB Forum and gets top experts to answer your questions. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 9 July 2025 and recorded during the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra between 30 June and 2 July 2025. In this episode: 02:05 Defence spending Can an increase in defence spending affect investments in green energy and digital infrastructure? 08:08 Tariffs How do US tariff threats affect the economy? What do they mean for the ECB? And what are the opportunities for Europe? 14:14 Smaller vs. bigger economies in the Eurosystem Does the ECB prioritise bigger economies over smaller ones? Do smaller countries, such as Slovenia, benefit from the ECB’s monetary policy? 18:55 Artificial intelligence Is AI an opportunity or a risk for the financial future? Further readings: Gensler, G., Johnson, S., Panizza, U. and Weder di Mauro, B.: The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment https://cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/economic-consequences-second-trump-administration-preliminary The ECB Podcast: AI: economic game changer or job taker? https://soundcloud.com/europeancentralbank/ai-economic-game-changer-or-job-taker ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

Tariffs and geopolitical conflicts have created uncertainty around the world. But how does the new trade environment affect inflation and the economy? How can central banks adapt? And what is the potential impact on the dominance of the US dollar ? In the third episode of our special Sintra series of the ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon talks to London School of Economics Professor Silvana Tenreyro. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 4 July 2025 and recorded on 1 July 2025. In this episode: 01:30 How is the world economy doing? What developments are having an impact on our economy today? And what uncertainties are arising from tariffs, trade fragmentation and armed conflicts in different parts of the world? 03:30 Tariffs, trade fragmentation and the economy How can trade tariffs and fragmentation affect economic growth and inflation in the euro area and beyond? 06:25 How are prices changing? How are prices changing in different countries? Will tariffs cause prices in the United States to rise, and those in Asia and Europe to fall? And why? 07:55 Lessons for central banks Given the extremely high level of uncertainty, what lessons from past shocks can central banks apply in the future? Why do we need clearly defined frameworks? And what role do governments play? 09:55 How can governments prepare for potential shocks? Investing in technologies that are difficult to substitute, diversifying energy sources and creating buffers for critical inputs – why it’s crucial that governments have a strategy to withstand various shocks. 12:05 What is a dominant currency? When is a currency considered internationally “dominant”? And what dominant currencies have there been in the past? 13:40 Dollar dominance and monetary policy transmission Does dollar dominance in international trade transactions reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy? 17:30 The future of dollar dominance How will the dominance of the US dollar develop in the future? Is its role as a primary reserve currency at risk due to the Trump Administration’s policies? 19:10 What keeps you up at night? What happens to our economy if there is a sudden shortage of a certain input? What impact will AI have if it remains largely unregulated? And what do stablecoins and digital currencies mean for our economy? 21:00 Our guest’s hot tip Silvana shares her hot tip with our listeners. Further readings: Michael McLeay and Silvana Tenreyro: Dollar dominance and the transmission of monetary policy https://personal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/dominant_currency.pdf Sintra Series episode 1/4: Price stability in times of change https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250702_episode110.en.html Sintra Series episode 2/4: Adapting to change: Ensuring price stability in a new geopolitical era https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod250625_episode109.en.html Silvana’s hot tip I’m still here/Ainda estou aqui ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

President Christine Lagarde sat down with central bank heads from the United States, hte United Kindgdom, South Korea, and Japan at this year's ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. They discuss the steps they've taken to fight inflation and explioe the challenges and opportunities ahead. Recorded on 1 July 2025 and published on 2 July 2025 Further reading: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html European Central Bank: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Central Bank Supervision: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

How does geopolitical uncertainty affect inflation? How do we keep monetary policy fit for purpose in a rapidly changing world? And what are the main topics at this year’s ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal? In the first episode of our special Sintra series for The ECB Podcast, our host Paul Gordon discusses all these questions and more with Chief Economist and Executive Board member, Philip R. Lane. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 June 2025 and recorded on 16 June 2025. In this episode: 01:28 The ECB Governing Council lowered key interest rates to 2%. What was the motivation behind the decision? 04:30 How do we ensure that risks and uncertainties are integrated into the monetary policy decision-making process? What is our baseline? What factors need to be taken into account? 06:44 Alternative scenarios in the latest projections Why do we communicate our “what if” scenarios? 08:11 Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach Why do we follow this approach? 09:50 Strategy review How can we make sure our strategy is up to date? 12:02 High-level uncertainty How do we factor heightened uncertainty in our strategy? 13:50 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal What is the ECB Forum and what’s behind it? What’s the goal of the Forum? What’s Philip R. Lane looking forward to? 16:53 Our guest’s hot tip Philip R. Lane shares his hot tip. Programme of ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20250630_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Ken Rogoff "Our dollar, your problem" https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300275315/our-dollar-your-problem/ ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu ECB Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html