S&W The Pulse

As the US 10 year treasury yield tips over the symbolic 3% mark, it may mark the end of the ‘TINA’ trade (‘There Is No Alternative’). Investors that have gravitated to stock markets as bond yields dipped now have a broader range of options, particularly as inflation appears to be nearing its peak. However, the inflation outlook is still uncertain and futures markets continue to suggest bond yields could rise further. There is increasing value in stock markets today, though volatility is...

After a brief recovery, stock market volatility has returned since the start of April. Market sentiment remains dominated by the war in Ukraine, with its knock-on effects seen in soaring inflation and weakening economic data. However, while a resolution to the conflict in Eastern Europe looks remote, there are supportive factors for stock markets. Economic growth has remained fairly resilient, with corporates showing considerable pricing power, enabling them to pass on higher input costs....

It is important for businesses to have a strong tax risk management framework, as this should lead to a good relationship with HMRC and fewer HMRC enquiries. Before a business receives an enquiry letter, HMRC will probably have conducted a risk assessment and estimated any potential tax lost. Understanding HMRC’s process is therefore a good starting point. HMRC has access to a vast amount of information, both from the UK and overseas, to help identify potential risk areas within a business....

While the Ukraine crisis has undoubtedly destabilised markets, they were already fragile. Inflation has been the key driver for this uncertainty, with CPI in the US tipping over 7%. For the first time in 40 years, investors need to contend with central banks tackling a sharply rising cost of living by raising interest rates Food and fuel remain the key areas of rising prices. Labour shortages, rising processing costs and delivery concerns have pushed the UN Food and Agriculture...

The tax year end is approaching on 5th April. In this episode we discuss what you can do ahead of the year end to put you in the best tax and financial position. Episode overview: Remember, all investments fluctuate in value and you may not get back the amount invested These options are relevant to most taxpayers but could be particularly valuable to those subject to an effective rate of tax of 60% on income between £100,000 and £125,140#. SUBSCRIBE: Stay up to date with our latest...

Markets have had a volatile start to the year, with particular weakness from the technology sector. The immediate catalyst appears to have been the hawkish minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting, which raised expectations of faster and steeper interest rate rises. Global equities have fallen around 4%.1 US equities have led the decline, with a significant sell-off in the 6 US mega caps, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla and Meta Platforms. Valuations had become...

Last year was a story of big numbers: seven billion vaccines delivered; a further $9 trillion in stimulus and global growth at an impressive 5.9%. This helped add $13 trillion to the value of global stock markets. However, this growth came with an inflationary sting in its tail. 1 Consumer price inflation rose to multi-decade highs in the UK, Eurozone and US, pushed higher by accommodative policy, pent-up demand and supply chain difficulties. This saw treasuries deliver their 6th worst...

In this episode, Ami Jack Head of National Tax talks to by David Yewdall, from our Employer Solutions team and Clare Halligan, from our tax disputes and resolution team on HMRC enquiries into Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme claims. HMRC has estimated the amount lost due to fraudulent or erroneous CJRS claims is £5.3bn, or close to 9%. Attention has turned to recouping this. There are recent headlines about HMRC enquiries into the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme/furlough scheme. 8.7% of...

As the global economy moves back to pre-pandemic levels and inflation accelerates, central bankers are under increasing pressure to reverse easy monetary policy. Central banks in South Africa, Russia, New Zealand and Mexico have already raised interest rates this year to contain overheating risk, but all eyes are on the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England. The US has already laid the groundwork to raise rates over the next year or so. In November, the Fed started to taper its asset...

Soaring global energy prices have contributed to inflationary pressures, while economic growth has lost momentum. This has created fears of stagflation. This would be tough for stock markets, but is still only an outside possibility. Stagflation happens when inflation pushes prices up faster than wages and profits, forcing consumers and businesses to cut back on expenditure. Demand drops and a downward spiral ensues. Previous periods of stagflation, such as those following the oil price...

The Autumn Budget has maintained a relatively steady ship, with no major announcements in several tax areas. Focus remains on keeping the UK a competitive place for business and encouraging innovation to lead to economic growth. In today’s special episode on the UK Autumn Budget, we highlight what the key changes can mean for you personally and for your business: Business Taxes Income taxes & Capital Taxes Head to our UK Autumn Budget hub for further analysis and commentary from the...

Economic recovery and inflation are increasingly being shaped by supply-chain issues: notably labour shortages and production bottlenecks. Manufacturers say a lack of equipment and materials are limiting production, while transport costs have surged. These shortages could have a lingering impact on inflation, which is now being felt across a range of sectors. Labour shortages are forcing employers to raise wages. Provided the business cycle does not end abruptly, the environment still...

In this episode, Ami Jack Head of National Tax and Susan Roller a Partner in our Private Client Tax team discuss offshore companies owning UK residential properties and key considerations you need to be aware of, including those arising as a result of the planned increase in corporation tax. Key discussion points to note in this episode: SUBSCRIBE: Stay up to date with our latest insights, subscribe to our mailing list here and choose the topics you’re interested in:...

As Ghandi once said ‘The future depends on what we do in the present’. In today’s episode we discuss how best to get your affairs in order for when the inevitable happens. A big part of that is making a will but there’s other things to consider. Our special guest; Stuart Adams, a Solicitor and Legal Director in the Tax and Wealth Planning Team at Mishcon De Reya joins the conversation and demonstrates the importance of solicitors and financial planners working together to get the best...

Once President Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, the US could expand its money supply without being constrained by its holdings of bullion. This made it easier to issue debt to finance growth. This ability has been important in supporting the economy during the pandemic. Unprecedented monetary stimulus saw the pandemic-led recession last just two months, the shortest ever, but as financial markets grow increasingly dependent on the waves of central bank liquidity, there may be...

In this introductory episode on transferring wealth, we touch on main issues families are facing and questions you should start thinking about to help you plan. When we refer to ‘wealth transfer’, we are referring to wealth cascading from the older generation to the younger generation – weather this is during the lifetime of the older generation or at death. SUBSCRIBE: Stay up to date with our latest insights, subscribe to our mailing list here and choose the topics you’re interested in:...

Bond and equity markets are telling a different story about the global growth outlook: equity markets have rallied significantly since the start of the year, while treasury yields have trended lower. Both markets can’t be right.* We are sticking closer to the upbeat view taken by the equity market, believing that bond yields currently suggest excessive pessimism. That said, we are alert to a number of risks, including inflation and slowing global growth. * Source: Refinitiv...

Crytposassets have dominated the headlines for a while. The FCA have also recently published a research note that estimated 2.3 million people now hold cryptoassets in the UK. Despite this increase, they also suggest that the level of understanding of cryptoassets is declining. One of the key considerations is whether they are held for investment or trading purposes. This will impact whether they are subject to capital gains tax or income tax. Income tax rates are currently higher than CGT...

In this episode Anne McClean and Dougie Cameron chat about the annual tapered allowance, as well as the annual allowance limits that can be saved into a pension each year, and the ability to carry forward unused annual allowance from the previous three tax years. In case you missed our lifetime annual allowance episode, have a listen here: https://bit.ly/360jywv Articles mentioned: The Annual Allowance - pension contributions 2020/21: https://bit.ly/3ysq8bg Tapered annual allowance...

In this episode we’ll be looking at why equities could win out over bonds in the second half of 2021. Investors are heading into the second half of 2021 in a buoyant mood after an encouraging first half of the year for markets, supported by accommodative policy and rising growth expectations1. Though the global growth spurt may peak sometime this year, in this episode, we suggest the fundamental backdrop for equities remains positive. Private consumption, the driving force for the GDP...