Economics & Country Risk | An S&P Global Market Intelligence Podcast

In this episode, our expert economists dive into the world of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data and its impact on global markets. We kick off with an intriguing discussion on the reassessment of central bank policies and the implications for financial markets. The PMI economists delve into the key drivers of inflation, such as rising wages and material costs, and analyze the pricing power of firms in various sectors. The conversation then shifts to the newly launched PMI survey for the Kuwait economy. The survey covers various sectors, excluding oil production. The economists also confer about the latest PMI data from other Middle East North Africa economies including Egypt and the UAE. Gain a deeper understanding of the PMI data and its significance in today's dynamic global economy. Host: Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Featured experts: Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html David Owen, Economist, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/owen-david.html Read more about business activity in Kuwait: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/competitive-pricing-helps-to-drive-business-activity-growth-in-kuwait-May24.html Read more about business activity in Egypt: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/egyptian-business-activity-drops-sharply-in-february-amid-currency-crisis-Mar24.html Explore our library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Our banking risk experts provide insight into events impacting the financial sector in emerging markets each month. In this episode, we delve into the trends and developments shaping the banking risk landscape in mainland China, Ukraine, emerging Europe, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates. Listen now to gain a deeper understanding of the factors influencing credit expansion and the potential implications for businesses and investments in these markets. Featured expert: Natasha McSwiggan, Senior Economist, Banking Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/mcswiggan-natasha.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

The chip industry sits at the nexus of national security and economic development policies. That has resulted in a race both in supporting national investments in the semiconductor sector as well as escalating restrictions against sharing technology. This episode brings Economics and Country Risk together with the Next in Tech podcast, hosted by Eric Hanselman. Chris Rogers and John Abbott join Eric and Economics and Country Risk host Kristen Hallam to dig into the dynamics and geopolitical pressures that make the supply chain so difficult to fix. Featured experts: Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html John Abbott, Principal Research Analyst, Applied Infrastructure & DevOps, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1630702/john-abbott Eric Hanselman, Chief analyst for technology, media and telecom, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/contributors/1535668/eric-hanselman Read our blog on this topic: https://ow.ly/nZai50RvfTc Discover the Next in Tech podcast series: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/next-in-tech Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

The prolongation of existing — and emergence of new — armed conflicts will likely remain a major source of geopolitical instability in the world economy, according to our strategic report on key themes for 2024. Following Iran’s recent strike on Israel, we pose the question: What could an escalation mean for the global economy? Featured expert: Ken Wattret, Vice-President, Global Economics, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Companies are finding that supply chain disruption is not receding and the reliability of input, such as transportation is not returning to normal. We see a need to invest in resilience projects that cut risk and improve profitability, such as reshoring. Reshoring, of course, has its challenges, including labor costs and availability and infrastructure. We discuss those challenges in this episode. Featured experts from S&P Global Market Intelligence: Aries Poon, Head of Asia-Pacific Insights and Analysis Rafael Amiel, Director, Latin America and Caribbean Economics, Sam Parkin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Global demand continues to tread water, with the construction and manufacturing sectors facing headwinds from high interest rates. Suppliers are responding by controlling output, with sporadic idling and curtailed investment plans meaning less excess capacity in 2024 to absorb supply shocks. Along with logistics woes that cause higher rates and longer delivery times, risk is rising. In this episode, our expert discusses logistics challenges and the outlook on shipping disruptions due to rerouting from the Red Sea. Featured expert: Keyla Martinez, senior economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Steel prices are weak, and that makes it a buyer's market. What's fueling that weakness? How long will it last? Where is demand strongest? Our expert provides insights into steel markets, including those for carbon steel and electrical steel, that will inform purchasing decisions now and into the future. Featured expert: John Anton, Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/anton-john.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Climate-related effects have been augmented by weather phenomena such as El Niño in certain geographies. This is impacting agricultural production while hampering policymakers’ ability to contain food prices. Countries such as India and Indonesia resorted to restricting exports of rice and palm oil in 2023 to prevent domestic civil unrest and inflation, chafing some trading partners. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea show the increased vulnerability of food supply chains to geopolitical events. In part two of our two-part series on global food security, we will cover how higher food prices influence overall inflation, the impact of food security risks on jobs and the workforce, the potential for social unrest, and how governments are responding. Featured experts: Carlos Cardenas, head of Latin America Insights and Analysis https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cardenas-carlos.html Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, principal economist, Asia Pacific Economics https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/luchnikava-schorsch-hanna.html Ronel Oberholzer, head of sub-Saharan economics Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

Climate-related effects have been augmented by weather phenomena such as El Niño in certain geographies. This is impacting agricultural production while hampering policymakers’ ability to contain food prices. Countries such as India and Indonesia resorted to restricting exports of rice and palm oil in 2023 to prevent domestic civil unrest and inflation, chafing some trading partners. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the shipping disruptions in the Red Sea show the increased vulnerability of food supply chains to geopolitical events. In part one of our two-part series on global food security, we will discuss the role of three key regions in the global food supply chain, the impact of the El Nino weather pattern, who benefits from higher food prices, and who will pay the costs. Featured experts: Carlos Cardenas, head of Latin America Insights and Analysis https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cardenas-carlos.html Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, principal economist, Asia Pacific Economics https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/luchnikava-schorsch-hanna.html Ronel Oberholzer, head of sub-Saharan economics Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In their first podcast of the year, our Purchasing Managers' Index team of economists provide insights on the impact of Red Sea shipping disruptions on supplier delivery times and where those effects are being felt the most. They also discuss the latest data on manufacturing and construction in the eurozone, through the prism of Greece and Italy. The team also unveils our newest PMI dataset, on Romania's manufacturing sector. Featured experts: Paul Smith, Director, Economic Indices, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/smith-paul.html Andrew Harker, Director, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/harker-andrew.html Eleanor Dennison, Economist, Economic Indicators & Surveys, S&P Global Market Intelligence Discover more PMI insights here: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/pmi.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

If you’re a chocolate lover, you probably eat up headlines declaring how good it is for your health. You may also get alarmed by news stories of supply shortages or disruptions. But where does it come from and what route does it take to get to you? In this episode, our experts reveal who the biggest players are in the global cocoa trade. (Spoiler alert: Switzerland is not the biggest exporter of chocolate.) They also discuss the trade in finished chocolate products, marzipan and jellybeans and which countries have the biggest appetite for sweets. Featured experts: • Anna Rybicka, senior economist, trade forecasting • Agnieszka Maciejewska, economic associate director, trade forecasting Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade and investment. Countries will cooperate where objectives align, and areas of competition will likely increase. How faster-growing economies exercise their rising economic and geopolitical influence will be key. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcome of dozens of scheduled elections. In this episode, we look at five of these elections outside the US: India, South Africa, the European Union, the UK, and Mexico. We selected these polls because they touch on the economic fragility we see in the world, and, outside the US, are most likely to impact business. Featured experts: • Deepa Kumar, Head of Asia-Pacific Country Risk • Laurence Allan, Head of European Insights and Analysis • Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip, Senior Analyst for Latin America • Lange Malimela, Head of Country Risk, sub-Saharan Africa Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In our first episode of 2024, we talked about our top 10 predictions for the global economy in the coming year. In this episode, we unveil our U.S. regional economic predictions for 2024, a year of uncertainty as Americans prepare for elections in November. You’ll hear about our expectations for the unemployment rate, job growth, consumer price index inflation, real wage increases, domestic migration and housing affordability. We’ll also discuss where we expect to see the biggest changes and how US economy 2024 trends could influence voters at the ballot box. Which indicators will our experts be watching as they track these trends in the runup to the election? Featured experts: Karl Kuykendall, Associate Director, US Regional Economic Service, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/kuykendall-karl.html John Raines, Principal Global Risks Adviser and Head of North America, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/raines-john.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

One of our key themes for 2024 is logistics rewired. At the world's largest ocean container shipping event, TPM, shippers and their transportation providers will have plenty to talk about. Navigation restrictions on the Panama Canal, rerouting from the Red Sea to avoid attacks from Houthi militants, the persistent issue of overcapacity. How is the shipping industry responding to these shocks and what impact could we see on trade and the global economy? Featured expert: Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, JOC, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/szakonyi-mark.html Join us at #TPM24, March 3 - 6, where these issues will be discussed in depth. Learn more: https://ow.ly/ukhj50QB67B Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, our experts provide regional insights into construction markets around the globe. Learn more about what's impacting construction spending in North and South America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa. This deeper dive into regional themes for 2024 follows our previous episode on the global outlook for contruction spending and illustrates the economic fault lines we see in this disjointed world. Featured experts: Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html Amandeep Bahra, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/bahra-amandeep.html Neo Sibiya, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence Shing Tyan Lee, Senior Economist, Global Construction, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/lee-shing-tyan.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

In this episode, we share insights from our webinar on the global construction outlook for 2024. We discuss changes in our macroeconomic forecast that inform our outlook for construction spending and provide an overview of regional construction markets. Featured expert: Jeannine Cataldi, associate director, Global Construction Group, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/cataldi-jeannine.html Explore our full library of S&P Global Market Intelligence podcasts: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/podcasts/

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will cut across the themes of economic fault lines and resource security with a discussion of labor market trends we're tracking in 2024. Learn more about what trends will persist in 2024, and which will change direction. Featured experts: Emily Crowley, Associate Director, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/crowley-emily.html Sophie Malin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/malin-sophie.html Sam Parkin, Senior Economist, Pricing and Purchasing, S&P Global Market Intelligence Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of supply chain resilience. Supply chain resilience is vital and costly amid significant uncertainties related to labor and policy implementation. Companies will weigh strategies such as inventory expansion, multi sourcing, and reshoring. Will companies be willing and able to pay for necessary investments in these strategies as corporate cash flows come under pressure? Featured expert: Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/rogers-chris.html Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

We see five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we explore the theme of geopolitical reordering. National interest objectives will influence reordering of relationships between countries and in multilateral forums, impacting global challenges, flows of trade, and investment. An important indicator underlying the direction of these risks in 2024 will be the outcomes of more than 70 scheduled elections — half of which will be presidential elections. The outcomes will have major implications for policy direction and priorities. Featured expert: Laurence Allan, head of Europe Insights & Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/allan-laurence.html Download our report on 2024 themes: https://ow.ly/Jbwf50QqtiZ

S&P Global Market Intelligence sees five key overlapping themes for the year ahead. In this episode, we will delve into the economic fault lines theme with a discussion of our top 10 economic predictions for 2024. Learn more about where we see inflation rates going, how we expect central banks to respond, and where we are likely to see growth in the coming year. Featured expert: Ken Wattret, Global economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence https://www.spglobal.com/en/enterprise/experts/wattret-ken.html Read our full 2024 themes report: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/Info/1123/2024-disjointed-world.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015 Read more about our top 10 economic predictions: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/top-10-economic-predictions-for-2024.html?utm_source=GIA&utm_medium=blog&utm_campaign=secontent&utm_id=PC024015