Kopi Time podcast with Taimur Baig

Martin Mühleisen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the state of multilateralism. He sees the recent IMF meetings marked by modest progress in securing greater funding for development and climate change, but much more remains to be done to give developing nations their requisite voice in global bodies. On issues such as supply chain resiliency and domestic market protection, nations around the world are undertaking a variety of interventions, which may be understandable given the pandemic shock and geopolitics. Yet, they create risks for inflation, and add layers of inefficiency and distortion. Martin weighs in on US fiscal, Japan’s monetary policy, and Europe’s difficulties with the war in Ukraine and China-US friction. We round up the discussion with how to keep multilateral institutions like the IMF maintain their relevance in this multipolar world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We catch up in Washington DC with Dr. Alexis Crow, lead, Global Geopolitical Investing Practice, pwc. Recorded on the last day of the IMF-World Bank 2024 spring meetings, we go over the key takeaways from our interactions with policy makers and analysts. From a mild upgrade in global growth forecasts to taking stock of the scarring of the pandemic, there was a sense of cautious optimism during the meetings. Ongoing geopolitical strife of course remained a shadow, and concerns were expressed on the impact of lingering high interest rates on various economies and markets. China-US tussle over economic overcapacity and industrial policy looks likely to intensify, although there has been a welcome rise in engagement between the world’s two largest economies. We also discuss the latest deliberations on AI, climate change, and sticky inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Angela Mancini, Partner and Head of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis practice for Asia Pacific at Control Risks, returns to Kopi Time after four years. The issues haven’t changed that much in the interim—we talk about Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore’s elections and economic prospects, state of China-US friction in the context of business risks, and the domestic dynamics at play in the US. Angela provides astute insights and some prognostications as we cover an extensive ground, including the likely outcome of the US Presidential race. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bert Hofman, adjunct Professor at the East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to comment on the National People’s Congress of China and the direction of policy in the coming years. We also talk about the property sector crisis, ways to revive business and consumer confidence, deflation risks, green transition, trade and tech war, and industrial policy. Bert also has interesting insights on the preference of the Chinese leadership in dealing with a Biden or Trump presidency. Worth a listen. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We welcome back Munib Madni, CEO of Singapore-based Panarchy Partners, a fund management company with responsible investing at its core. In this chat, Munib talks about latest developments and trends in the world of climate impact investing, while pointing out a gap in the current scene. Munib sees many listed equity companies setting laudable goals to reduce emission, but lacking the “how" about achieving those goals. This is where the newly established Gigaton Coalition comes in. It is an investor-investee led expert management platform for decarbonization solutions. As the name suggests, it aims to deliver at least 1 gigaton of cumulus emissions savings over the next decade from publicly listed companies in Asia Pacific. We discuss how the coalition would work, what would motivate institutional investors and companies to join it, and where Munib sees the initiative standing at the end of 2025. This is real work for real change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We explore the present state of digital payments, their impact and potential, and tech-enabled investment platforms with Caeser Sengupta, CEO and co-founder of Arta Finance. Previously, Caeser spent a number of years at Google as VP & GM of Payments & the Next Billion Users initiative. In this podcast, we begin by discussing the economic and social welfare benefits derived from the digital payments revolution of the past decade. Caeser walks us through the fundamental changes in the way business and commerce are conducted in Brazil, China, India, and elsewhere, thanks to the development in mobile payments and near-instantaneous settlements. We talk about the broader ecosystem, including the potential of super apps, safety/security, role of regulators, central bank digital money, and of course, crypto/blockchain. We then shift to Caeser’s ongoing foray into creating a platform for wealth management, with enhanced customer experience and capabilities. The intersection of digital literacy and financial literacy has still plenty of room for disruption and value creation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of intelligence on energy markets, returns to Kopi Time. She was with us in the early days of the podcast, when WTI futures was in negative territory, and then returned around the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Today, again, energy markets have no shortage of drama. Vandana begins by addressing various scenarios over the brewing tensions in the Red Sea, especially for shipping and oil price risk premium. She also details the perverse dynamics around Russia’s energy supplies and various unintended consequences. Beyond geopolitics, she looks at the rather underwhelming supply-demand fundamentals characterising energy markets. We then talk about the future of OPEC+, state of US Shale sector, and the medium term demand for fossil fuels against green transition. Vanda offers an astute blend of industry insights and the complex realities in place. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We do a US market wrap-up for 2023 and outlook for 2024 with our favourite strategist, Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar. No stranger to Kopi Time, Sri is blunt and prescient in his views across asset classes, fiscal and monetary policies, politics, economic growth, and inflation. We discuss the various prevalent and potential sources of market volatility, direction of the US Fed and treasury, path for inflation, rate cuts, and eventual QE next year, and the outlook for credit markets. Sri worries about the health of the US bank and nonbank financial system as the economy slows. He is also quite clear about the distinction the markets make about US assets and US policy. In most countries, outlook for one determines the outlook for the other. But the US remains blessed with certain superpower and mega-market size privileges that allow it to avoid some of these issues, at least in the near term. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

South Asia has pockets of strong growth (Bangladesh and India), pockets of balance of payments difficulties (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), and an across the board underwhelming foreign investment picture. Dr. Franziska Ohnsorge, South Asia Chief Economist of the World Bank, ties these multiple threads from her vantage point. We discuss risks and manifestations of currency crisis in parts of South Asia and the assorted fiscal stress points. The region remains characterised by remittance from the diaspora, which tends to create an element of overheating in consumption. The region also collects very low taxes, without which the capacity of spend on growth critical areas remains limited. The rules around fiscal responsibility are also weak by international comparison. We then talk about two matters related to energy transition in South Asia. First is a study on ways to improve firm level productivity through introduction of energy saving practices, and the second is one on the encouraging returns from green jobs. We conclude by talking about the need for the region to become more trade friendly; there is no better way to have a competitive, productive, and upward trending economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a thoughtful discussion on maximising a company or economy’s growth potential while navigating geopolitical constraints. Charles Ormiston digs deep on Asia in this podcast. Charles, chair of the Angsana Council, a Singapore-based think tank focused on the growth potential of Southeast Asia, and former head of Bain Southeast Asia, argues that China/UK rivalry could force both nations to get out of their comfort zones and become more self-reliant, which in turn could help the rest of the world. Charles is not rosy-eyed about the current state of affairs, but his key insight on China’s progress is that it is the result of intense competition between provinces and businesses, fuelling innovation. At a broader level, he sees great power rivalry forcing further innovation on both sides. The conversation then veers toward China’s seismic push toward green transition and its various positive spillovers to the region. Charles walks us through Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore, offering cogent insights on their very different development models and prospects. We need to have Charles back for the rest of Southeast Asia. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This couple is walking the talk on marine sustainability. Dirk Eichelberger is the CEO of Singapore Aquaculture Technologies; in other words, he runs a fish farm right here in Singapore. Lelya Eichelberger is launching Alghemy, a skincare product range that offers a proprietary ingredient while emphasizing clean, green, and blue beauty. We talk about the challenges and rewards of their entrepreneurial journeys, and how their goals and Singapore’s imperatives converge. Dirk walks us through the financial, ethical, and ESG factors that drive his fish farm, while Lelya talks about health-related scientific advances with sustainability considerations at the core. As Dirk points out, from securing partnership with the government and other interested parties, to scaling up, as well as commercialising the knowhow through a franchise model, there are many things one can do to increase the production and distribution of sustainable products. The roadmap is there. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global central bank heads and finance ministers gathered over the past week in Marrakech, Morocco for the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group. The meetings’ overarching theme was an uneven global recovery from a multitude of shocks, ranging from pandemic to wars, prices to interest rates. There was also a cautiously constructive view that both the public sector and markets have proven to be more agile than feared to deal with frequently occurring shocks. There was acceptance that a multitude of shocks have be confronted simultaneously. Post-pandemic scarring, wars, inflation, interest rate spikes, climate change, all need to be dealt with agility. Global resource base and tools to deal with polycrisis are being expanded. Climate change related support measures are still inadequate. Between-and-within country income gaps are widening due to the shocks and varying policy responses. Asia is slowing, but still making up about two-thirds of global growth. arts of Asia may benefit from geoeconomic fragmentation, but it’s a net loss for the world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an atypical episode—the first time in Kopi Time we discuss the intersection of faith and economics. Dr. Tony Annett, a Visiting Scholar at the Center for Sustainable Development, Columbia University, and author of “Cathonomics: How Catholic Tradition Can Create a More Just Economy,” insists on moral principles as foundations of economics and finance. In this fascinating conversation, we explore the roots of our modern values and principles, going to back old scriptures and subsequent faith-based approaches. Dr. Annett questions the narrow rational actor approach of neoclassical economics, arguing that without concerns for a common good and social responsibility, solutions to inequality, climate change, and monopolistic practices will remain unattainable. Over the past couple of centuries, technological progress and organisational developments have led to astonishing material prosperity, but have we achieved meaningful progress? The call remains for a more sustainable and inclusive world; whether one has faith or not, that imperative is critical. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This podcast will be an indispensable resource for those have not read Chip War by Chris Miller, Professor at Tufts University. Chris explains, both in his award-winning book and in this conversation, the central role played by computer chips in today’s economy, society, and military. More critically, he points out various single nodes of vulnerability in the production process of these immensely complex products. Naturally, the conversation then veers toward China’s attempts to reach self-sufficiency in advanced tech, the myriad of sanctions getting in the way, and the various unexpected knock-on effects. Those who have read Chip War already will also find a lot in this podcast, as we discuss the latest products by Huawei, use of military tech in the Ukraine war, how Russia is managing its tech stack despite sanctions, and the state of advanced tech manufacturing the East Asia. Many don’t know that Chris’s core expertise includes Soviet history and modern Russia, so we conclude with his prognosis of the war in Ukraine and the path toward resolution. This was a gem of a chat. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to give his take on China-US relationship, the war in Ukraine and its many facets, and where Asean and India stand in all this. The ever erudite former career diplomat pulls no punches, pointing out poor national strategies, short-term oriented decision making, and hypocrisy on foreign and economic policy across industrialized economies. He worries about US presidential elections next year, although he sees little course correction on US policy toward China, regardless of the outcome. The conflict in Ukraine, however, could be profoundly affected by the US election outcomes. Mr Mahbubani also weighs in on China’s geo-strategic response so far, room for cooperation on climate change, the expansion of Brics, and the outlook for Aaean. We end with a a prognosis on Singapore. The transcript of this chat will be worth saving. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aurobindo Ghosh, Assistant Professor of Finance at the Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Singapore Management University, joins Kopi Time to talk about his longstanding research on inflation expectations and cost of living. He explains the decade-plus work, done in conjunction with the Monetary Authority of Singapore and DBS Bank, to gauge inflation expectations among Singapore’s residents. Over the long term, survey results have held steady, reflecting well anchored inflation expectations, but they have been volatile in recent years, in line with global developments. How is the survey conducted; what methodological challenges do they throw up; what are the key insights from all these years’ of surveys; is there a difference between inflation expectations and cost of living perceptions? What are the policy implications? Prof Ghosh addresses all this and more on this topic of the moment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Eswar Prasad, Tolani Senior Professor of Trade Policy at Cornell University, returns to Kopi Time to talk about the USD, China, cryptos, and CBDCs. We go over the state of the global financial system, the legacy of USD weaponisation, innovation in fintech, the state of cryptos, the potential of central bank digital currencies. Eswar’s book, The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance, offers a great sweep of the ongoing revolution in money and finance. This podcast is a teaser for his deep work. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Santiago Millán, Macro Strategist at Wellington Management, one of the largest asset managers in the world, joins Kopi Time to talk about China. Whether it is the macro outlook, space for further stimulus, policy stance, state of financial markets, regulatory framework, great power rivalry, tech war, green transition, or the overall investment thesis on the country, Santiago has nuanced insights to offer. His key point is to appreciate the complexities of a large, consequential, and rapidly evolving economy and society like China. Broad-brushed analysis almost always gets it wrong; we need to think deeply when it comes to China’s medium term direction, especially with respect to its undeniable role in global trade, technology, and movement of capital. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Helge Muenkel, Chief Sustainability Officer at DBS, responsible for developing the bank’s overarching sustainability framework, joins Kopi Time. We begin by talking about current state of climate finance, the magnitude of funding needed to carry out meaningful green transition, and the various source of funding in the pipeline. Helge walks us through the key pillars of climate finance, including bonds, blended finance, grants, and carbon credits. We talk about the thorny issue of just transition, along with the role of governments and corporates in this journey. We then dive into banks’ role in coal phase-out, an enormously complex issue. We end by considering the encouraging climate mitigation and finance related developments in the US, Europe, China, and Singapore. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mustafa Chowdhury, who has held senior positions at Voya Investments, Deutsche Bank, Bear Stearns and Freddie Mac, brings his deep fixed income expertise to Kopi Time. We start with his takeaways from the debt ceiling drama, which Mustafa argues left President Biden the winner. He however remains unconvinced that a meaningful debt consolidation is likely in the coming years, given the ballooning expenditure needs ahead. He then offers his insights on the information content embedded in the deeply inverted yield curve, weighing on recession probability versus fixed income strategy of institutional investors. Mustafa believes that market pricing on inflation expectations is too sanguine, and a better gauge is consumer survey based expectation measures. Building on that, he expects sticky inflation and a “higher for longer” narrative for interest rates. Having said that, he is not uniformly bearish US fixed income, pointing out pockets of value in various products and strategies. Mustafa also weighs in on financial stability, systemwide liquidity, relative value, and portfolio allocation. Can’t-miss insights. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.