The Fraser of Allander Institute Podcast

Jack and Allison go over findings from the Scottish Government's recent household poverty publication, which shows that households with have at least one disabled adult are more likely to be in poverty than households without. This recent finding feeds into work that the FAI did in collaboration with the Scottish Parliament Information Centre over the past year, looking at the reasons why disabled adults are less likely to be in work compared to non-disabled adults. The key findings are that -Scotland has met its goal so far for increasing employment among disabled people, but its unclear whether or not the progress is sustainable -Disability prevalence has increased substantially since 2014, largely due to increases in mental health awareness and reporting -Disabled people are more likely to be in work because of this change in prevalence -There are large regional disparities in rates of employment among disabled adults -There are also large disparities in rates of employment for men and for people from minority ethnic backgrounds See the full report here.

Chair: Benjamin Cooper, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde Guests: Tony Shemwell, The Wise Group Hamish Robertson, The Wise Group

Participants: Timestamps: (00:30) The state of the Scottish economy (03:20) Scotland's pandemic recovery (07:40) Last thoughts on the Scottish Budget (09:50) Future fiscal events and funding decisions

Participants: Timestamps: (00:30) Challenges in economic forecasting; growth in 2023 (04:55) Uncertainty in measuring the economy (06:50) The Labour Force Survey and labour force estimates (11:45) 25 years of the Scottish Business Monitor (15:50) Income tax analysis (22:00) Upcoming research: Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (25:30) Impact of increasing interest rates

Participants: Timestamps: (00:25) The challenging backdrop to the Scottish Budget (05:28) The impact of the Autumn Statement on the Scottish Budget (08:33) Spending commitments from the Scottish Government since the Medium-Term Financial Strategy (13:55) Options for reforming Scottish Income Tax (22:51) The Scottish Government's constraints on borrowing (26:49) Main areas to look out for on Budget Day

Participants: Timestamps: (00:28) Economic forecasts for growth and inflation (03:03) Fiscal drag and its consequences (06:50) National Insurance cuts (08:45) Spending settlements for departments and devolved administrations remain tight - are they realistic? (13:03) Consequences for Scotland (17:17) What does this mean in the context of a looming general election?

Chair: Kate Milne, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guests: João Sousa, Deputy Director, Fraser of Allander Institute Timestamps (00:21) What can we expect from the budget next week? (02:13) Could recent GDP revisions lead to looser fiscal policy? (04:46) How might households and businesses be affected? (06:49) What could the Chancellor do to spur on investment? (10:28) How do things look for the Scottish economy?

Chair: Hannah Randolph, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guests: David Jack, Economic Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Chirsty McFadyen, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Timestamps: (00:25) Previous work on learning disabilities (01:45) Data on people with learning disabilities (11:15) Recommendations for data collection and use (20:15) Looking ahead - more on data (27:05) Looking ahead - qualitative work

Chair Ben Cooper, Associate Economist Guests Adam McGeoch, Fellow Economist Timestamps (00:30) A general economic update (07:50) Are we heading for a recession? (10:54) Are businesses feeling more optimistic? (14:09) What are the main issues concerning firms right now?

Timestamps (00:24) Latest GDP data from the ONS (02:30) IMF forecast of UK economy in 2023 (05:08) UK Statistical Authority weighs in on proper use of data (07:48) What have we seen so far from the FM (09:37) The road ahead for Humza Yousaf

Chair Ben Cooper, Associate Economist Guests Professor Mairi Spowage, Director Hannah Randolph, Economic and Policy Analyst Timestamps (00:31) The latest findings from the Economic Commentary (02:43) A review of the latest Scottish and UK economic data (04:16) What does the data suggest about the ongoing cost of living crisis? (05:55:) Economic inactivity and the Scottish labour market (08:07) The spring statement and implications for Scotland (13:37) Looking forward to the Scottish Business Monitor and the issues facing Scottish firms

Chair: Calum Fox, Economist, The Fraser of Allander Institute. Guest: Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute. Time Stamps: (00:48) The OBR's GDP forecast. (02:52) The OBR's inflation forecast. (O4:22) The UK's public finances. (07:31) What is the UK budget and why is it important? (09:36) What additional funding does the Chancellor's announcements generate? (11:15) Changes to childcare support. (14:41) The Energy Bills Support Scheme. (17:55) Disability Payment reforms. (20:15) Changes to alcohol duty.

Chair: Kate Milne, Assistant Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute Timestamps: (00:25) Latest GDP figures (03:00) Energy prices (05:40) Energy Support Scheme (07:45) Looking ahead - the Scottish Business Monitor 100th Quarter and export activity (11:00) Productivity and the four-day working week (13:05) Scottish Leadership Contest and policy

Chair: Jack Williamson, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director, Fraser of Allander Institute Time stamps: (00:40) Latest GDP figures (04:21) Length and depth of the looming recession (06:08) Latest Labour Force Survey data (09:28) Latest inflation figures (12:39) Core inflation (15:23) How well is the Central Bank performing? (19:44) Upcoming Spring Budget

Chair: Ben Cooper, Associate Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guests: Adam McGeoch, Economist Fellow, Fraser of Allander Institute Timestamps: 00:34 - What is the Scottish Business Monitor? 02:24 - Why was the latest survey significant for the institute? 04:15 - What are the key takeaways from the latest survey? 06:25 - What are the biggest issues facing firms? 08:40 - How are businesses fairing in the current economic climate? 11:05 - Are firms optimistic about the coming year? 12:42 - How can businesses get involved in the Scottish Business Monitor?

Chair: Ciara Crummey, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute Timestamps: (00.22) Key changes announced in the December budget (03.22) Were there any surprise announcements? (08.14) Effect on consumers and businesses (11.18) How has the budget been received? (13.14) How this ties in with the UK budget?

Chair: Kate Milne, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guests: Professor Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, and David Eiser, Deputy Director Timestamps (00:30) Main takeaways from the Autumn Budget Review (03:25) Were there any surprises? (08:00) Has enough been done to ease the long recession ahead? (12:00) Support for businesses and charities (14:15) Implications for Scotland

Chair: Allison Catalano, Economist, Fraser of Allander Institute Guest: Professor Mairi Spowage, director of the Fraser of Allander Institute Timestamps (00:30) Updates on the Scottish labour market and United Kingdom GDP (01:45) Is the UK already in a recession? (02:40) Drivers of poor growth (4:05) The impact of Thursday's Autumn Budget Review on recession forecasts (6:10) Additional expected features in the upcoming fiscal statement (7:50) The impact of the Autumn Budget review in Scotland

(2:14) Discussion of the recent mini-budget and market reaction (6:00) Discussion about the upcoming Bank of England reaction to the mini-budget and Scottish options for the medium-term fiscal policy (9:05) Discussion of updated economic forecasts, inflation, and contractions for the coming year and Q4 2022 (11:20) Discussion of Scottish labour market, unemployment, and economic inactivity (13:55) How are wage growth and inflation impacting household budgeting and expenditure?

Link to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data on Country and Regional Public Sector Finances, mentioned in the podcast: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/financialyearending2021 Music by Lesfm from Pixabay