Reformasi Dispatch

Prospects for foreign policy, domestic politics and democratization feature in our talk with the distinguished analyst and former advisor to President Habibie and Vice President Boediono, Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the National Research and Innovation Agency (Brin). She extends the 'benefit of the doubt' -- or doubts -- but also highlights risks and concerns. Also: Erin and Kevin discuss the latest, including a major investment pledge by Microsoft for AI tech, talk about expanding coordinating minister posts and the maneuvering ahead of major gubernatorial races in November. Read Erin's newsletter Dari Mulut Ke Mulut here: https://darimulut.beehiiv.com/

To assess the post-election process and anticipate what lies ahead, The head of Michigan University's Center for Emerging Democracies joins Reformasi Dispatch to discuss his new article in the Journal of Democracy. Are expectations of "continuity" valid? Is the electorate prepared for how President‑Elect Prabowo will govern? Professor Slater also touches on trends in Hun Sen's Cambodia. Also: Erin and Kevin discuss PDI‑P's reaction to the Constitutional Court's rejection of electoral disputes, and how the AGO's targeting of an alleged mafia kingpin could prove particularly portentous. Read Erin's newsletter Dari Mulut Ke Mulut here: https://darimulut.beehiiv.com/ Find Prof Slater's article here: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/922832

Medan Mayor Bobby Nasution is seeking to run for governor of Indonesia's fourth-largest province and his father-in-law Joko Widodo appears keen to help -- Reformasi Dispatch examines why. Also: With Lawrence Wong designated as Singapore's next prime minister, the city-state is embarking on a new era - but it might still bear close resemblance to the old... Finally, Erin and Kevin discuss the twin impacts of a higher oil price and a weaker exchange rate on the fiscal outlook and fuel prices.

Amid electoral disputes unfolding in the Constitutional Court, President-Elect Prabowo Subianto abruptly appeared in Beijing, hosted by Xi Jinping. Kevin and Erin Cook break down the significance and note that Prabowo sought to convey balance by also visiting Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur. Also: how the new Jakarta Law exceeds expectations by making fewer changes than anticipated, and a check on developments in another Constitutional Court, in Bangkok. Subscribe to Reformasi weekly newsletter: reformasi.info Subscribe to Erin's newsletter https://darimulut.beehiiv.com/

Indonesia's national election vote‑count concluded relatively smoothly, with the Widodo family's PSI falling well short of inclusion in parliament while the Soeharto-era ruling party Golkar expanded its vote share at PDI‑Perjuangan's expense. Jeff and Kevin break down the implications and outlook. Also: an all-too predictable kerfuffle on new Customs restrictions for arriving travellers and some thoughts on a portentous WTO ruling on palm-derived biodiesel.

Reformasi Dispatch takes a closer look at the vote-count process unfolding, with help from a foremost civil-society figure, Khoirunnisa ('Ninis') Nur Agustyati of Perludem. We discuss the technical drawbacks affecting the online 'SiRekap' display of the Election Commission (KPU) and whether commissioners acted judiciously in taking down the display on 5 March. Ninis explains the significance of C-Form tabulations from ballot stations and possible explanations for some to still remain missing. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the state of the formal censure proposal in parliament and the estimated seat breakdown for the next parliament and Jakarta assembly (DPRD).

Indonesia's election authorities took down the 'SiRekap' online display of the vote count -- just after an improbable leap in the count for PSI, the party of the president's younger son. Erin Cook of Dari Mulut ke Mulut steps in as co-host with Kevin to discuss the legislative‑election tallying, whether Jakarta's November gubernatorial contest will feature direct voting and to what extent parallels are discernible with politics in the Philippines. Plus: weighing in on Taylor Swift and getting Steven to unmute.

A recent presidential fashion statement -- a bright yellow necktie -- triggered anticipation that he may harbor designs on a takeover of Golkar, the Soeharto-era ruling party that will likely remain second-largest in the next parliament. Insider sources cited by Tempo magazine corroborated this indication of this maneuvering via sartorial elegance. But a Golkar takeover next December would be no simple task, even for the powerful Joko Widodo -- and it might conflict with the interests of Prabowo Subianto. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Prabowo's Free Lunch program and its costs, along with a possible parliamentary process to censure the government for wayward handling of the election process.

Nickel smelter air pollution, and the cost on the economy and public health, is the focus of substantive research in a new 100-page report from Crea and Celios. Crea analyst Katherine Hassan discusses the findings, methodology, and implications -- including the possibility of much of Eastern Indonesia eventually becoming a highly polluted and impoverished zone. At issue is whether regulatory enforcement will address options for cleaner nickel processing technology, smokestack scrubbing and deployment of renewable energy. Given the unmatched attributes of Indonesia's nickel resources and the imperative for transitioning to EV fleets worldwide, nickel‑industry externalities take on global significance. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss how the new parliament may shake out and what a limited cabinet reshuffle signals about post-election politics. To read Celios x CREA's report on nickel downstreaming industry, go to https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/debunking-the-value-added-myth-in-nickel-downstream-industry/

Pollster Seth Soderborg joins for our post election wrap up as Indonesians overwhelmingly cast ballots in the first round for Prabowo Subianto who syphoned support from Joko Widodo's fellow party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Now Ganjar's party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) must decide whether to join a governing coalition or reprise its role as parliamentary opposition. That's something its chair, Megawati Sukarnoputri may relish more than her cadres who may have developed a taste for power over the past decade under Widodo. Also Wahyu Dyatmika, CEO of Info Media Digital, the digital arm of Tempo Media Group joins after the break to talk about ongoing harassment of reporters and cyber attacks during the campaign, driving up the risks and costs to media companies which seek to hold the powerful to account.

The Prabowo-Gibran ticket has succeeded in portraying the 14 February national election as, in effect, a referendum on Widodo-ism -- with themselves on the overwhelmingly popular side promising "continuity". But will it instead, unbeknownst to many, actually prove to be a referendum on democracy? Jeff and Kevin discuss new polling data and the impact (if any) of some livelier public discourse in the final days approaching balloting. We expect a comfortable first-round majority for Prabowo. Also: a look at the legislative elections, the election-day Quick Count methodology, and some consideration of post-election policymaking.

If you enjoy Reformasi Dispatch, you might enjoy our special episode. In this special episode, we talk to Andreas Harsono, a veteran reporter and rights advocate writing for the NGO Human Rights Watch. Get the episode on Buy Me A Coffee https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/e/219468

In the final days of campaigning, Prabowo has benefited from joint appearances with the popular president, but prospects for a one-round win are nonetheless questionable. The professional public-opinion research analyst Seth Soderberg joins the pod to delve into the dynamics and assess probabilities. Also: Jeff and Kevin examine cabinet resignation rumors and review the final presidential candidate debate.

As the presidential campaign enters the home stretch, President Widodo may weigh whether to overtly endorse Prabowo, which would indelibly tie him to Prabowo's fortunes. Joint public appearances have been sustaining Prabowo's momentum, but prospects for a first-round majority are not yet fully assured. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the politics of rice and food aid as the Widodo administration fends off a spike in the price of the key commodity just days ahead of the balloting.

NetGrit founder Hadar Gumay explains the mechanics of the 14 February election process - from the voter list to the official count, and all the balloting procedures and monitoring systems in between. Given his experience, this is tantamount to having the workings of a car engine explained by Henry Ford. He cites the complexities, including Papua's communal noken voting, but notes the remarkable organizational successes of past elections. Nonetheless, the upcoming process is not without cause for concern. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Gibran Rakabuming's latest debate (a bit odd), a Foreign Corrupt Practices (FCPA) case, whether PDI-P is re-unifying and prospects for cabinet departures -- perhaps including the iconic finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati. To download Netgrit's Jaga Suara App on Google Playstore, click here: Jaga Suara 2024

As we gear up for an election year we are turning to our donors but this time we are giving back! As a token of our gratitude for your US$20 donation we are making available exclusive content, starting with a special podcast episode recapping the fourth presidential debate. Kevin and Jeff offer up analysis of who had a good night and who fell short. Donors will get insight into whether Indonesia’s fifth presidential election will go to a runoff in June. And if it does which candidate will make the cut. We also discuss how has the Indonesian electorate changed since 2019 and how the candidates must pivot to reflect young voters who who don’t remember life before the country’s transition to democracy and yet crave a cleaner environment and better jobs and higher quality of life. To donate and download your exclusive content, follow the links in the show notes. And thank-you. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/e/209222

Should Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto be thankful that President Widodo has provided vital backing? Or should the president be grateful that Prabowo has provided a lifeline? How these two regard one another may shape Indonesia's political outlook for some time. For 'Perth-spective,' we turn to Murdoch University's Indo-Pacific Research Center and its senior fellow Ian Wilson, who is actually currently at Singapore's ISEAS. Prof Wilson recounts Prabowo's past campaigning and Widodo's own political forays in recent years to assess the logicality of campaign ads about 'continuity'. Also: Jeff and Kevin touch on poll data and the effects of debates on the campaign. Get our special episode on the 4th Presidential Debate on: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/extras

Four friends of the pod chime in on how they see 2024 unfolding: human rights analyst Andreas Harsono, renewables expert Fabby Tumiwa, environmental scientist Katherine Hassan and Eurasia Group Southeast Asia Director Peter Mumford. At the start of the new year, they outline the opportunities and stakes in their respective fields, touch on elections, the economy, energy and sustainability. Jeff and Kevin add their own musings and recap poll findings and developments ahead of the 14 February first-round presidential contest. Get our special episode on the 4th Presidential Debate on: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/extras

How resilient are the independent democratic institutions in Indonesia's current election process? A chief monitor of electoral agencies, Khoirunissa of the pro-democracy NGO Perludem, examines campaign finance issues, enforcement of rules on gender equality and preparations for conducting candidate debates. She also takes note of changing roles for key institutions that civil-society organizations (CSOs) had in the past supported as champions -- and points out that CSOs must now remain "alert." Also in this episode: Jeff and Kevin discuss latest poll data and Ganjar's prolonged struggle to delineate an electoral position. Get our special episode on the 4th Presidential Debate on: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/extras

Human rights and the rule-of-law received rare scrutiny in a well-conducted first debate. Awkward moments occurred for Prabowo Subianto, but new polling shows him very well cushioned. Also discussed: a bill to end Jakarta governor elections, with bewilderingly broad support; and ministers narrowly avert (for now) a broad-backed effort to boost Anwar Usman and perhaps restore him as Constitutional Court chief justice. And in memoriam: the passing of Southeast Asia's longest-serving foreign correspondent, John McBeth, dearly departed at age 79. Get our special episode on the 4th Presidential Debate on: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/reformasi/extras