Crashing the War Party

According to journalist Matthew Petti's number crunching, 31% of English-speaking media have been using the phrase "Hamas-led Health Ministry" since Oct. 17. Before that day, only 7% were using such a phrase. What happened? Petti points to the Oct. 17 explosion at the Al-Ahli hospital in Gaza, the perpetrator of which has not been independently confirmed. He said civilian casualty counts were not only second-guessed by the Biden administration but questioned because the ministry was "Hamas run." Repeating this led to the Western media pick-up of the phrase. Not only does linking the ministry and its data to the militant group delegitimize both, it serves a broader insidious narrative that Gazans and Palestinians are Hamas, which serves Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's interests in justifying the relentless bombing of civilians. Petti talks to Kelley and Daniel about this and the broader responsibility of the Western media in the coverage and interpretation of these complex issues on the ground today. More from Matt Petti: Media amplified US, Israeli narrative on Palestinian deaths, Responsible Statecraft, 11/20/23 The international pressure on Israel that really matters comes from the Middle East, Analyst News, 10/19/23 Why does Egypt fear evacuating Gaza? Responsible Statecraft, 10/13/23 America's Broken, Lurid View of Foreign Wars, Reason magazine, 10/12/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Experts are now speculating that America's reputation in the world, particularly in the Middle East, is taking a hit worse than when it invaded and occupied Iraq in 2003. Giorgio Cafiero, head of Gulf State Analytics and a keen observer of politics in the region, tells the podcast this week that President Biden is becoming more hated than George W. Bush during that era. This threatens to get even worse each day that the Israeli bombardments continue and more Palestinian civilians are killed (as of this writing, it is well over 11,000, nearly half of them children). Meanwhile, Arab leaders, especially those in the Gulf States with ties to both the U.S. and Israel, are coming under increasing pressure by the Arab Street to do more than just rhetorically signal their anger and displeasure with Tel Aviv and Washington. In the first segment, Kelley & Dan talk about the big Biden-Xi Jinping meeting in San Francisco this week: a nothingburger or a real step forward for diplomacy? More from Giorgio Cafiero: Consequences Of The Israeli War On Gaza, News Looks, 11/14/23 Will Turkey-Israel ties reach breaking point amid Gaza war?, The New Arab, 11/14/23 Will UAE hurt Russia with export controls to please the US amid Israel war? Al Jazeera, 11/7/23 China and Israel have enjoyed serious ties. What happens now? Responsible Statecraft, 11/3/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

A popular narrative after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and ensuing retaliation by Israel has been that the U.S. had dropped the ball because it had 'pivoted away' from the Middle East over the last three administrations. That is simply not true. According to our guests this week, CATO researchers Jon Hoffman and Jordan Cohen, Washington has maintained a status quo in the Middle East that had become untenable. It has been fueling the region with weapons; making deals with dictators in Saudi Arabia and Israel at the expense of the Palestinian issue, and ignoring the growing violence and tensions in the occupied territories. We talk about this and more as the violence threatens to spill over to other parts of the region, which will embolden those in Washington who want us to have a bigger, not a smaller footprint there. More from Jon Hoffman and Jordan Cohen: Emergency Aid or Budget Trick? Assessing Biden’s $100 Billion Spending Request, Jordan Cohen w/ Dominik Lett, CATO, 10/20/23 Biden's Middle East Deal is a Disaster, Jon Hoffman, Responsible Statecraft, 9/27/23 Many Arms and Little Influence in the Middle East, Hoffman and Cohen, War on the Rocks, 8/23/23 Counter-revolutionary? A deeper look at Israel’s relationships with Arab autocrats, Responsible Statecraft This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

There are currently 2,500 American troops in Iraq and another 900 in Syria. Their bases have come under repeated fire in both countries since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in Israel. According to Pentagon officials, Iranian-backed militias are to blame, and they expect more as fighting ramps up in Gaza and the West Bank. Adam Weinstein, a senior fellow on Middle East issues at the Quincy Institute and an Afghanistan War veteran, spoke with Dan and Kelley this week about how vulnerable these troops are today. He also talked about the risks of the war expanding to Lebanon and the possibility of Iran and neighboring Arab nations, along with the U.S., getting dragged into the conflagration. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the reaction of the Global South and Arab state leaders to the events in Israel and how the international community seems to be fracturing, once again, against U.S. desires for consensus. More from Adam Weinstein: Iraq as it Is, with Steven Simon, Foreign Affairs, 9/27/23 ‘The Return of the Taliban’ Makes Sense of Afghanistan’s Misery, Foreign Policy, 7/19/23 How to Withdraw From Iraq Within Five Years, with Steven Simon, Quincy Institute, 5/9/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In this special episode, Kelley and Dan update the headlines from the Gaza strip and talk about how U.S. policy in the region has become increasingly effective in terms of pushing for a two-state solution and helping to restrain the more extreme impulses of the Israeli government ahead of the Hamas attacks on Israel and retaliatory strikes in Gaza over the last week. In the first segment, we talk to Mark Hannah, senior fellow of the Eurasia Group Foundation about the organization's recent polling, Views of US Foreign Policy in a Fragmented World, which finds strong public opinion in favor of diplomacy with Iran and Russia, declining interest in fighting a forever war in Ukraine, and an interesting uptick in support for military intervention against China in defense of Taiwan. More from Mark Hannah: The Real Reason Ukraine Isn’t Ready to Join NATO, Politico, 9/18/23 Washington Should Divide, Not Unite, Russia and China, The National Interest, 9/14/23 Straight Talk on the Country’s War Addiction, New York Times, 2/18/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

It took the Ukraine war to show how broken the U.S. war machine really is. President Eisenhower warned about the military-industrial complex in 1961 and we know that it is ten times as worse as he even imagined. But after almost two years of war in Ukraine and tens of billions of American weapons transfers, we now know how limited -- if not dysfunctional -- the MIC really is. Yale scholar and lecturer Michael Brenes joins us to discuss how this happened historically, and what Washington might do to claw the industry back from the five mega-corporations that now dominate and control U.S. defense manufacturing and supply. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the latest events in Gaza and Israel and bemoan the exploitation of the conflict by outside warmongers who want to drag the U.S. into a wider conflict with Iran. More from Michael Brenes: How America Broke its War Machine, Foreign Affairs, 7/3/23 The future of restraint after Ukraine, Foreign Exchanges, 12/19/22 Great-Power Competition Is Bad for Democracy, with Van Jackson, 7/14/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The Ukraine War has exposed a lot when it comes to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — otherwise known as NATO. Aside from the "renewed mission" and "unity" that has emerged to help Ukraine confront the Russian invasion, there are downsides. NATO has a limited capacity of weapons stores and manpower and the US is taking on a disproportionate share of the leadership and resource sharing. Dr. Maitra Sumantra, a senior fellow at the Center for Renewing America, says it's past time for Americans to rethink further expansion and scaling back the US dominance of this organization. We talk about where the support exists for this kind of dramatic shift, and how resistant the political establishment here and in European capitals would be toward such change. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the new UN-approved, Kenyan-led security mission in Haiti. More from Sumantra Maitra: Europe’s Revealed Preferences, The American Conservative, 10/423 Britain's Military Enlightenment, The American Conservative, 8/14/23 Pivoting the U.S. Away from Europe to a Dormant NATO, Center for Renewing America, 2/16/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

We welcomed back to the show this week the co-hosts of Conflicts of Interest podcast, Kyle Anzalone & Connor Freeman, who both write and edit and support the Libertarian Institute. We ask them about the rancorous split among libertarians over Ukraine, a fissure not seen in the Global War on Terror. We also talked about signs of fraying support for a forever war situation in Ukraine, on Capitol Hill and outside the Beltway, increasing tensions between the U.S. and China, and the GOP presidential field. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan chewed over the demise of Senator Bob Menendez, Egypt's man in D.C. More from Kyle and Connor: US-Backed SDF Militia Shells Positions Taken By Arab Fighters in Eastern Syria (Freeman), The Libertarian Institute, 9/27/23 White House Close To Providing Kiev With Cluster-Armed ATACMS (Freeman), The Libertarian Institute, 9/25/23 US Deploys F-16s to Romania for Patrols Over Black Sea (Anzalone), Libertarian Institute, 9/25/23 Ukraine Claims Sabotage Attack on Critical Russian Airbase, Provides Questionable Evidence (Anzalone), Libertarian Institute, 9/20/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Ask anyone in Washington and they'll tell you, in varying levels of panic, that China is a threat to the United States. Some will say it's the greatest threat ever or, in military-speak, the "pacing threat." So who is right? And if China is a challenge or even a threat, to its neighbors if not America directly, then how does the Biden Administration rationally deal with that? We asked longtime China security studies expert Michael Swaine to join us this week to talk about current U.S. policy and whether or not it is going in the wrong direction. He tells us that the saber-rattling on both sides of the political aisle is risking a "radical deterrence" effect — in other words, there is a way to do positive deterrence that avoids war, not "radical deterrence," which drives you closer to real conflict. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan hash out their favorite headlines of the week, including Zelensky's visit to Washington, Biden's signing of defense security assurances for Bahrain (and possibly for Saudi soon, too), and Canadian accusations that the Indian government is linked to the assassination of a Sikh independence activist in British Columbia in June. More from Michael Swaine: How to Break the Impasse in U.S.-China Crisis Communication, United States Institute of Peace,7/26/23 A Restraint Approach to U.S.–China Relations: Reversing the Slide Toward Crisis and Conflict, with Andrew Bacevich, the Quincy Institute, 4/18/23 The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy, The National Interest, 2/27/23 A Restraint Recipe for America’s Asian Alliances and Security Partnerships, with Sarang Shidore, Quincy Institute, 11/18/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

This week, President Joe Biden announced that he was unfreezing $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds as part of a broader deal that involves an important prisoner swap. The deal has drawn howling from the usual suspects, those who believe any diplomatic course with Iran spells weakness and blunder. Sina Toossi, an expert in U.S.-Iran relations and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, joined us this week to talk about the deal and how attempts by hawks to coerce regime change in Iran has actually made things worse, for all involved, including the people of Iran. We also talk about the legacy of Masha Amini, whose detention and death in jail a year ago sparked nationwide protests and societal turmoil, reaching the highest levels of the country's repressive theocracy. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about Ukraine and the latest 'red line' the White House has threatened to cross: giving long-range ATACM missiles to Ukraine. More from Sina Toossi: The US-Iran Prisoner Swap: A Breakthrough or a Band-Aid? Jacobin, 8/13/23 Iran's Supreme Leader opens space for possible nuclear deal, Responsible Statecraft, 6/14/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

We are excited to sit down (metaphorically) with veteran, whistleblower, peace activist, and foreign policy dissident Matthew Hoh. He has spent the last few years helping to build the Eisenhower Media Network, which is designed to promote and give voice to veterans with a critical point of view of U.S. wars, foreign policy, and the military-industrial complex. Hoh has been at the forefront of the anti-war movement since serving as a Marine in Iraq and as a State Department officer in Afghanistan during the post-9/11 wars. In this episode, we talk about the challenges of the current peace movement in regard to the Ukraine War and how folks who may have initially supported the one-track Washington policy may be seeing the benefits of pushing for more diplomacy and fewer weapons or else prolonging a conflict that is ultimately more destructive for Ukrainians. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan discuss the absolute chaos in Syria, with U.S. troops and a befuddled Washington policy right at the center. Here’s a primer from reporter and Middle East analyst Matthew Petti. More from Matthew Hoh: Red Meat to the Ravenous Dogs, substack, 7/27/23 Destroying Ukraine to Save it, Counterpunch, 6/30/23 A Long War Wanted: Diplomatic Malpractice in Ukraine, 6/9/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

For the last two decades, the U.S. military has been heavily invested in Africa — in training, weapons sharing, and basing — per its "war on terrorism." Unfortunately, the places in Africa that have had the most U.S. investment in this regard are now among the most unstable on the planet. Somalia continues to be wracked by militia violence and a fragile (at best) government, while the Sahel in West Africa has experienced no less than 20 government coups since 2010. Elizabeth Shackelford and Emma Sanderson of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs join us this week to talk about their latest report (with Ethan Kessler), "Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa," which argues that not only have these counter-terror operations failed to make life in these countries better, they have actually increased security threats for the people who live there, and to American interests. In the first segment, Kelley & Dan discuss the old-school hawks making a big — and cringeworthy — return on the GOP debate stage, with Ron Desantis and Vivek Ramaswamy taking their body blows on Ukraine. More from Shackelford and Sanderson: Less is More: A New Strategy for US Security Assistance to Africa, Elizabeth Shackelford, Emma Sanderson, Ethan Kessler, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 8/21/23 What's tragic about the coup in Niger, Elizabeth Shackelford, Chicago Tribune (paywall), 8/11/23 The Dissent Channel, Elizabeth Shackelford, PublicAffairs, May 2020. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Eighteen months into the war in Ukraine and the picture is grim. After so many US officials — including former military — pumped up the prospects of the Ukraine counteroffensive — it looks like the conflict is headed into a bloody stalemate if not a Russian rout. Lyle Goldstein, Director of the Asia Engagement program at Defense Priorities, has been one of the more sober voices calling for a diplomatic pathway rather than a commitment to endless war, because, as a military historian and strategist he could see that the Russians had the advantage from the beginning of the year. He returns to the show to talk about what went wrong and where things can go from here. In the first segment, Kelley & Dan discuss this week's Human Rights Watch report that charges Saudi Arabia of systematically killing hundreds — perhaps even thousands — of Ethiopian migrants at the Saudi border. If true, how can Biden continue to justify reported plans to deliver goodies for Riyadh — including a security pact and sophisticated US weaponry — in exchange for Saudi-Israel normalization? More from Lyle Goldstein: China Studies Nuclear Risk in the Context of the Ukraine War, with Nathan Waecher, The Diplomat, 7/21/23 Is the Ukraine War moving toward a ‘Korea solution’?, Responsible Statecraft, 1/30/23 Seeking Alternatives to Military Escalation in the Ukraine War, Inkstick, 11/16/22 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Last week, the Biden administration announced a deal with the Iranian regime that would free five Iranian-American prisoners in Tehran in exchange for several Iranian prisoners here in the U.S. The deal would also free up $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds to be used solely for humanitarian purposes in Iran. Brussels-based foreign policy analyst Eldar Mamedov joins us this week to talk about the Republican-hawk backlash against the deal and what the agreement might mean for future diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. We also get him to talk about Biden's apparent moves to get Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, and at what cost. In the first segment Kelley and Dan discuss the New York Times' latest attempt to diminish non-interventionists and restrainers on the Ukraine war issue — this time on the Left. More Eldar Mamedov: Hawks hurl lies over Iran prisoner swap but can’t hide this truth, Responsible Statecraft, 8/11/23 Fresh hysteria over detail-less Bolivia-Iran security deal, Responsible Statecraft, 8/1/23 Qatar emerges as go-between on frozen US-Venezuela front, Responsible Statecraft, 7/6/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Does Washington have a plan B if the Ukrainian counteroffensive doesn't work out? Kelley and Daniel talk to foreign policy and politics writer James Carden about continued maximalist talk in the Beltway, setting up the Ukraine war for another forever war. He also talks about the "peace conference" in Saudi Arabia last weekend and his disappointment that there is no real diplomatic push on behalf of the major powers. Moreover, how politics in Washington are precluding actual debate on Ukraine, whether it be over the new aid package that the Biden administration now seeks or the lack of a real strategy to end the war. Kelley and Dan also discuss an emerging plan in the White House to apparently offer security guarantees to Saudi Arabia, along with other goodies, in return for its normalization with Israel. More from James Carden: The Coming Battle: Who Lost Ukraine? The American Conservative magazine, 8/7/23 When facts cut through the fog of war, w/ Katrina Vanden Heuvel, Responsible Statecraft, 7/25/23 Now is not the time for Ukraine to Join NATO, w/ Katrina Vanden Heuvel, The Guardian, 7/6/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The Senate just passed a defense spending bill with a top line of $886 billion. Added to other national security-related funds like nuclear weapons modernization and homeland security, the U.S. is poised to spend more than one trillion on defense in 2024, with more than half going to military contractors. Julia Gledhill, a Pentagon spending expert with the Project on Government Oversight (POGO), joins us this week to bring us up to speed on the Congressional shenanigans involving the budget, including "emergency spending" that will allow the government to blow past spending limits, Ukraine and Taiwan aid that is expected to be slipped into a supplemental aid package, and how contractors are benefiting from the war in Ukraine, and will continue to do so, long after the conflict ends. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the heartbreaking conditions on the ground in Haiti and whether a multinational peacekeeping force would help or hurt the situation. We also discuss the coup in Sudan and how US military assistance has actually made things worse in the African "coup belt." More from Julia Gledhill: 1) The ultimate All-American slush fund, with William Hartung, Tom Dispatch, 7/22/23 2) Defense Industry Crying Wolf on Its Finances, POGO, 5/22/23 3) Lawmakers quietly gave weapons firms bailout for unproven inflation burden, Responsible Statecraft, 3/3/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

In lieu of promising Ukraine President Zelensky NATO membership, the alliance has promised 300,000 high-alert troops and a ton of new assistance and security guarantees. What kind of hole is the West digging here, for itself, and Ukraine? The CATO Institute's Justin Logan joins us again to talk about the quandary of dangling NATO and long-term security guarantees in front of NATO. He also talks about how the American people seem totally oblivious to the fact that none of this is in the national interest. In the first segment, Dan & Kelley talk about Israeli President Herzog's visit to Washington and the rush on Capitol Hill to embrace the "ironclad" relationship. More from Justin Logan: Don't let Ukraine join NATO, with Josh Shifrinson, Foreign Affairs, 7/7/23 No to Ukraine in NATO, DC Journal, 6/7/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

The media distortion field and the fog of war. We hear these terms quite often but it's been a long time since we saw them both so fully in action. As a result, there is little known on the real casualty figures in the war in Ukraine, how much of American/Western weapons and equipment has been destroyed, and most importantly, whether Ukraine is "winning" as it contends to be. We talk to (Ret.) Col. Doug Macgregor this week and his prognosis is dim: the war is going much worse for the Ukrainians than we are being told. Without a ceasefire and real negotiations, the country is on its way to being destroyed. In the first segment, Dan and Kelley talk about an amazing long-form report by Sarah A. Topol in the New York Times illustrating the current state of Guam, a U.S. territory that has been completely taken over by the U.S. military. In fact, it has had little identity of its own beyond a giant military base, since WWII. More from Doug Macgregor: After Bakhmut, The American Conservative, 5/23/23 The Gathering Storm, The American Conservative, 5/15/23 Americans Must Choose, The American Conservative, 4/14/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

Despite all of his assurances to the contrary — that Washington would return to its role as a steward of global democratic reform — Biden has mostly continued what every previous American president has done: prop up autocrats to keep "stability" in the Middle East. Cato Institute policy analyst Jon Hoffman came on the show this week to point out one of the most blatant of Biden's contradictions: his support for Egyptian president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. We also talk about Washington's obsession with getting Arabs to sign onto normalization agreements with Israel, and what a common sense foreign policy in the Middle East would really look like. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the administration's change of heart over sending cluster bombs to the Ukrainian military. More from Jon Hoffman: Ten Years After Coup, the U.S. Still Supports Tyranny in Egypt, Lawfare, 7/3/23 The US Will Not Gain from Israel-Saudi Normalization, The Hill, 6/19/23 Middle East Autocrats, Islamophobia, and “Reverse Orientalism,” Bridge Initiative, 6/15/23 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com

On Thursday, India's prime minister, Narendra Modi comes to Washington and will address a joint session of Congress. There are a lot of expectations for this visit, as Washington really wants India to be a strategic partner in its China containment strategy. But India has its own interests, and while it is more than happy to work with the U.S. on trade, economic development, and even military tech and industrial capabilities, it has taken its own course on China and as we know, Ukraine. So what, if anything, will both sides get out of this week's visit? Quincy Institute scholar Sarang Shidore sets the table for us, on the relationship that the U.S. wants with India, and the relationship that actually exists. In the first segment, Kelley and Dan talk about the building pressure on NATO members to come up with a blueprint for Ukraine membership — or a non-NATO arrangement that is the next best thing to Article 5. More by Sarang Shidore: 1) Indonesia’s audacious Ukraine play is a message from the Global South, Responsible Statecraft, 6/5/23 2) Climate Security and Instability in the Bay of Bengal Region, Council on Foreign Relations, 4/19/23 3) Is the US Going Too Far in Its Alliance With the Philippines? The Diplomat, 4/11/23 Thanks for reading Crashing the War Party! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crashingthewarparty.substack.com