Carnegie Connects

Congress is more involved in foreign policy — both formally and informally — than most Americans realize. With the war in Ukraine entering its third year, the Israeli-Hamas war continuing with no end in sight, and economic competition with China rising, Congress is likely to take a greater interest and have more influence on foreign policy in the coming year. How divided is Congress on the key foreign policy issues of the day? Will party lines determine the passage of a $60 billion aid package for Ukraine or a possible ban of TikTok? And what issues offer the best prospects for bipartisan cooperation? Join Aaron David Miller, host of Carnegie Connects, as he sits down with Representative Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) to discuss these and other issues.

As the Israeli-Hamas war enters its sixth month, the conflict shows no signs of abating. The humanitarian plight of Gazans continues to deteriorate while the prospects of a major Israeli ground campaign in Rafah looms. At the same time, the negotiations surrounding a potential hostage deal appear stalled. What are Israel's current objectives in the conflict? How do tensions along the Israeli-Lebanon border factor in, and what of rising tensions with Washington? Aaron David Miller welcomes former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak back to the program to discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas war. Register for future Carnegie Connects: https://carnegieendowment.org/events/

Late last year, the Economist asked an intriguing question: How scary is China? President Joe Biden’s administration clearly considers China a peer competitor to the United States and many in Congress view Beijing as a mortal threat. There’s no doubt that China poses serious challenges, even dangers in some areas, for America. But is Washington overlooking China’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and misunderstanding what China wants from America and the world? Are we getting China right? Aaron David Miller sits down with David Rennie, the Economist’s bureau chief in Beijing, to discuss these and other issues.

As the Israel-Gaza war enters its fifth month, the humanitarian situation for 2.3 million Gazans is increasingly dire. A grinding process of inspections of trucks has slowed delivery of aid, while Israel's ground campaign in southern Gaza—where an estimated 1.9 million displaced Palestinians now reside—makes using predictable and reliable corridors for transport extremely difficult. What is the future for Palestinians in Gaza? How does the Biden administration envision the proverbial day after? And what are the prospects for converting this crisis into a better pathway to a two-state solution and closer ties between Israel and the Arab world? Aaron David Miller sits down with Ambassador David Satterfield, the State Department special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues, to discuss these and other issues.

In its threat assessment for 2024, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security forecast that, among other threats, the 2024 election cycle will be a “key event for possible violence and foreign influence targeting our election infrastructure, processes and personnel.” Indeed, Attorney General Merrick Garland noted that in recent months there had been a “deeply disturbing spike” in threats against government workers and public servants. What is the nature of these threats? What is driving and enabling political violence in America today? Can law enforcement cope with these threats, and are the nation’s institutions strong and resilient enough to deal with these challenges in the years ahead? Aaron David Miller sits down in conversation with former U.S. acting assistant attorney general for national security Mary B. McCord to unpack these and other issues.

The Israel-Hamas war may have pushed Ukraine off the front pages, but Russia's war against Kyiv is almost certain to remain a key focus of U.S. foreign policy throughout 2024. Tough choices await. Hopes that the combination of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive, tough sanctions, and diplomatic pressure might force Putin to alter his strategic calculus have given way to a more realistic assessment that this conflict might last for many years. What should we expect on the battlefield in 2024? Are there any realistic prospects for negotiations and should President Joe Biden’s administration be pushing for them? What are the impacts of delays in aid to Ukraine now and in the months ahead? Over the longer term, is containment the right strategy for dealing with a belligerent Russia? Aaron David Miller sits down in conversation with Carnegie’s own Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.

As the Israel-Hamas war enters its second month, the role of intelligence has figured prominently. How did Israel fail to grasp Hamas’s intentions and capabilities and to anticipate the October 7 attack? Was this a failure of imagination or were there structural and bureaucratic impediments that prevented Israel’s intelligence community from identifying the dots and connecting them? Are domestic politics overriding sound intelligence analysis to shape the Israeli government’s campaign against Hamas, its approach toward Gazan civilians, its efforts to free hostages, and its thinking on post-conflict Gaza and the West Bank? Efraim Halevy, former director of the Mossad, and Ami Ayalon, former director of Shin Bet, engage in conversation with Aaron David Miller on these and other subjects.

With the ever-present possibility of tensions between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific, the war between Russia and Ukraine with no end in sight, and a new crisis between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East that could easily escalate, the United States seems to be stretched along several political and military fronts. How should President Joe Biden’s administration think strategically and tactically about this new arc of crisis in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East? Can it successfully resource America’s role in these conflicts? What are the key challenges it faces, and how much political bandwidth does it have at home to fashion policies that are both sustainable and effective? Aaron David Miller sits down with General David Petraeus to discuss these and other issues, as well as his new book "Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare From 1945 to Ukraine."

The Israel-Hamas war has pushed the Palestinian issue to center stage both in the region and internationally. Have Hamas’s October 7 attack, Israel’s blockade and airstrikes, and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe altered Gazans’ views on Hamas? What did Hamas hope to gain from the attack? Has the Palestinian Authority been weakened further by the escalating violence in the areas under its control, and would its influence be strengthened or weakened if Israel were to succeed in destroying Hamas’s military capabilities? Are there any circumstances in which the Palestinian Authority might return to Gaza? Aaron David Miller sits down with pollster and analyst Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, in conversation on these and other issues.

Since October 7, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated to its highest level in recent years. The brutality of the Hamas attacks, the hostage-taking, and Israel’s response to date, including devastating air strikes in Gaza and the blockade—have intensified the conflict. Will Israel launch a major ground campaign against Hamas? What is the fate of the hostages? Is there a chance that the conflict could spread to the West Bank and Jerusalem or trigger a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border? What is Iran’s involvement, and how is the Biden administration dealing with the crisis? Aaron David Miller sits down with former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak to discuss these and other issues.

Relations between Iran and the United States remain fraught. A period of de-escalation has been ushered in by Iran’s release of five American hostages in exchange for five Iranian nationals and the unfreezing of around $6 billion of Iranian assets that Tehran can now access only for food and humanitarian aid. On a separate track, through indirect negotiations, the United States and Iran reached a series of informal understandings to defuse tensions, including limits for Iran on some nuclear enrichment activities. But the underlying tensions driven by Iran’s nuclear program, its brutal repression of its own peacefully protesting citizens, and its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine remain unresolved. What is the Biden administration's approach to Iran? How will domestic politics and the upcoming U.S. presidential election shape it? And what are the possibilities for a broader agreement between Washington and Tehran on the nuclear issue and other key points of contention? Aaron David sits down with two of Washington's finest analysts of Iran.

Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive has perhaps unfairly left some Western policy circles disappointed. Nonetheless, the war continues seemingly with no end in sight. What are the most realistic options for Kyiv to make headway against Russia? Has the Biden administration been too risk averse in its provision of military assistance, and what kind of advanced weapons systems supplied to Ukraine might make a significant difference on the battlefield? What have the past several months taught us about Ukranian and Russian strategy? And do the core tenets of Western strategy toward Russia’s war on Ukraine require rethinking? Aaron David Miller hosts leading military analysts Dara Massicot, formerly of the RAND Corporation and soon to join Carnegie, and Carnegie’s own Michael Kofman for a discussion of these and other issues.

Uncertainties abound as Ukraine begins its much-anticipated counter-offensive. Will it change the trajectory of the war or represent simply another phase in a lengthy stalemate? Meanwhile, next month’s NATO summit will mandate some tough choices about the war, Ukraine’s potential membership, and the unity of the alliance. To what extent will domestic politics in Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and key European capitals shape decision-making? And what are the long-term security options for Ukraine as the confrontation drags on? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with Carnegie’s Kateryna Shynkaruk and Eric Ciaramella to discuss these and other issues.

The Palestinian national movement is in crisis. Divided between a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Palestinian Authority that has lost credibility with the West Bank population it partially controls, the movement lacks not only cohesion but an effective strategy to bring about an end to Israeli occupation. Confronted by Israel's most right-wing fundamentalist government, which is committed to maintaining permanent control over most of the West Bank and Jerusalem, the movement is drifting with little more than symbolic support from the international community. What is the Palestinian strategy? If the two-state solution has failed, what is the Palestinian endgame and how do they mean to achieve it? What happens in the wake of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ presidency? And what can Palestinians realistically expect from the Arab world and the United States? Aaron David Miller sits down with Dr. Ashrawi to discuss these and other issues.

As Israel turns seventy-five, protests opposing the Netanyahu government's effort to overhaul and weaken Israel's judiciary enter their twentieth week, Israel confronts unprecedented internal challenges as Israeli-Palestinian clashes in Gaza and the West Bank intensify, and Iran's nuclear program continues unconstrained. What lies ahead for Israel and the Middle East at this critical moment? Aaron David Miller sits down with former Israeli prime minister and defense minister Ehud Barak for a wide-ranging conversation about Israel at seventy-five.

Can humanity compete in the critical race against climate change, or are we destined to succumb to a world of extreme heat, flooding, drought, and irrevocable damage to the planet’s seas and biosphere? The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that time is running out but holds out hope of averting the worst. Will UN efforts like COP summits succeed soon enough? If not, who or what will lead the way? And as the climate emergency accelerates, what can the world expect from its largest emitters, China and the United States? U.S. Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change Sue Biniaz joins Aaron David Miller to discuss.

Well before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden cast the main dynamic of the 21st century as a struggle between the forces of democracy and autocracy. Putin’s aggression seemed to tether Biden’s rhetoric to the bloody reality of the most serious crisis in Europe since the end of the cold war. But with two thirds of the world’s population residing in countries that have not signed on to pro-active sanctions against Russia, is the democracy versus authoritarian framing the most effective one? Why isn’t the United States and much of the West’s message getting though? Why are so many nations hedging? And what are the prospects for a resurgence of democratic systems against the backdrop of recent democratic backsliding? What concrete steps can the U.S. and its democratic allies take to support fledgling and fragile democracies? Atlantic staff writer and author Anne Applebaum joins Aaron to discuss.

America’s foreign policy challenges abound. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has evolved into a seemingly endless war of attrition in which neither side appears poised to win decisively. Relations between the United States and China are at their worst in decades with little discernible pathway to a more productive relationship. North Korea flexes its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities while Iran expands its enrichment capacity to near weapons-grade level. Meanwhile, international institutions and multilateral cooperation seem ill equipped to deal effectively with the transnational challenges of climate, a future pandemic, and the preservation of biodiversity. At home, domestic politics are playing an influential role in shaping U.S. foreign policy, for better or worse. Amid so much geopolitical complexity and so many crises, what are the key elements for an effective and successful foreign policy? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with two former national security advisors to discuss America’s role in this challenging and changing world.

Wars evolve in one of two ways—one side decisively defeats the other, or both sides, realizing that total victory is unattainable, compromise on a temporary or permanent deal to end the fighting. In Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine, neither scenario is currently in play as Moscow and Kyiv plan fresh offensives and counteroffensives in 2023 along the 600-mile battlefront. How are Putin and Zelenskyy recalibrating their military strategies in the new year? How would Russia react if Ukraine wins more ground and is in striking distance of Crimea? How would Chinese military assistance impact the battlefield balance? And what circumstances might produce a Western military confrontation with Russia? Aaron welcomes Russian military expert Michael Kofman from CNA to discuss how the battlefield in Ukraine is shaping up in 2023. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.

As the war in Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary, the coming months could prove decisive in a conflict that has become a war of attrition. The possibility of any negotiation in the near future appears dim as rumors spread of massive Russian and Ukrainian offensives. Kyiv and its Western partners are scrambling to bolster the Ukrainian military with tanks, air defense, and other capabilities. How does the Biden administration view the effectiveness and sustainability of its overall strategy? And how can Ukrainian and Western leaders persuade Putin that he is wrong to pin his hopes on simply outlasting his opponents? Aaron sits down in conversation with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland to discuss these and other issues. Want to listen to Carnegie Connects live? Visit our website to sign up for invitations.