Market Trends with Tracy
Business & Economics Podcasts
In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates.
Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies.
We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.com
Follow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice
Location:
United States
Description:
In foodservice, making smart menu decisions can be the difference between open, and closed. Follow along each week as we try to make sense of the many links in our food service supply chain, and how that affects the food you serve. Saval Foodservice's own veteran purchaser, Tracy Anderson, takes you through the major market updates. Saval Foodservice is a broadline foodservice distributor located in Elkridge, Maryland, and has been a family-owned & operated business since 1932. We serve the area's independent restaurants, caterers, delis, hotels, and other eateries. Our products range from fresh produce, seafood, custom-cut meat, groceries, beverages, our own line of Saval Deli delicatessen products, and cleaning supplies. We created this podcast in 2020 to keep our customers informed of the suddenly volatile market. Market Trends with Tracy is written & recorded by Tracy Anderson. Produced & Edited by Deanna Segreti and Shelby Reister. For questions or inquiries about the show, email sfssocialmedia@savalfoods.com Follow us on Instagram @savalfoods or on TikTok @savalfoodservice
Language:
English
Episodes
Dairy on a Tear
5/17/2024
Beef production cutbacks are off to a slow start. The market is steady to lower. Look for some deals if you have the customer demand to move product.
Poultry demand is strong and production can barely keep up. Pricing is up on all parts and there is more upside to come.
Planting is on track for grains and everything seems to be in good shape.
Pork bellies are up this week but still in a good buy position. Pork production is strong and inventories are good.
The CME is higher again for the 7th week in a row and it's not slowing down.
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Duration:00:03:43
No Beef Market Momentum
5/10/2024
Beef pricing seems to remain the same despite the recent ramped-up production. The market feels flat with demand and pricing is flat to lower. We're heading into Memorial Day with no momentum in the beef market.
Chicken demand is still strong and production is up from last year. Pricing is up overall. This could be an expensive summer for chicken.
There is plenty of pork product and demand is okay. This is keeping prices pretty steady.
The CME does not seem to be slowing down on price increases.
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Duration:00:04:08
Featuring Beef on Spring Menus...Groundbreaking
5/3/2024
Beef production was slightly down this week but still in good production numbers. Hopefully, with nice weather, we will see demand pick up. It's a good time to buy and feature beef now before pricing moves higher this summer.
Chicken pricing is steady and demand is strong. There were three new cases of Avian Flu affecting 28,000 birds.
Pork bellies are down this week, but pricing has been jumping around. Pork continues with strong production and availability is good.
The grain markets continue in good shape. The dairy market continues higher.
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Duration:00:03:22
We've Got Grains Galore
4/26/2024
Beef production hit numbers we haven't seen in months. This is helping to soften pricing on almost everything except thin meats and grinds.
Chicken pricing is steady and demand is still strong. Only one new case of Avian Flu was reported affecting 104,000 turkeys.
Corn pricing is up and planting continues with good weather keeping things steady. Soy should stay steady to low; wheat is a great value, moving lower this week.
Bellies closed lower this week, butts are staying steady, and loins are inching up. Production numbers are strong.
The CME is moving higher on all fronts.
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Duration:00:02:44
USDA Updates Beef Production Estimates
4/19/2024
The USDA has updated production numbers in beef harvesting for the year. This will be good news for everyone if the production lines get moving. For now, keep product on hand and continue to buy what you need, there may be a bargain or two out there.
Poultry production and demand continue strong, but this week pricing is pausing. Increases are coming. Avian Flu is not going away. April has been the biggest loss month since last winter and we have one more week to go.
There is not much movement in pork pricing this week, but we could see that change this summer. Pork is still a great protein option.
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Duration:00:03:59
Beef Cattle are Literally Growing
4/12/2024
Beef production continues to be restrained, but cattle are growing in physical size, thanks to cheap corn. Pricing has taken a pause this week with increases coming soon.
Chicken production and demand continue strong. Pricing is moving higher on all products except breasts, which are steady. No new cases of Avian Flu were reported in birds, but two more states have reported the illness in dairy cows.
Pork pricing continues to be favorable for now. Look for a big move higher in bellies this summer. In the meantime, pork is a great protein value.
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Duration:00:03:42
Stock Up for Cinco de Mayo
4/5/2024
Avian flu has spread to dairy cows in six states. Affected milk is being destroyed, but pasteurized milk remains safe for consumption. Three new cases of Avian Flu in chickens were reported, totaling 3.8 million birds. This shouldn't significantly impact availability or pricing, but chicken prices continue to rise weekly.
Beef production is still down and demand is creeping up, putting pressure on the supply chain. Prices on skirts, sirloin flaps, and flanks will keep climbing, especially with Cinco de Mayo coming up. It might be smart to stock up for a few weeks.
Planting begins this month for corn and soybeans. Corn closed yesterday at $4.24. Soy continues to look good. Wheat continues to be well-supplied and market soft.
Overall pork production is ahead of last year and demand is holding up pretty well. Bellies closed yesterday at $120, so we're still waiting for that spring increase to start.
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Duration:00:03:34
Avian Flu Crosses Species
3/29/2024
Chicken pricing is moving up again for next week, wings, boneless breasts and tenders are all getting more money. Production is increasing weekly, but demand is still strong, and everything is getting sold. Hatch rate is down again for last week to 78.9%. Anything under 80% is a concern but we are seeing lower hatch rates for several weeks now. Hoping this turns around quickly. On the avian flu front, the good news is only one new report affecting 50 birds. The bad news is the mysterious illness affecting Texas cattle has been identified as Avian Flu, now crossed species in Texas.
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Duration:00:03:36
Sticker Shock on Strip Loins
3/22/2024
Beef harvest last week was down to 583K head, below last week’s 599K and last year, we were at 631K head for the week. This curtailed production is continuing, some major packers are only running four days a week making this market tight. Expect another week below 600K head this week. The pull back is having the desired affect for the beef producers. Product is short and pricing is moving up quickly. There will be a bit of sticker shock next week with pricing on strip loins, top rounds, sirloin flap and skirt steaks, all taking fairly substantial increases for next week.
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Duration:00:04:18
Gotta Get Down on Pi Day
3/15/2024
Last week's beef harvest dropped to 583K, continuing a trend of reduced production with some major packers operating only four days a week. Expect another week below 600K. Shortages are driving prices up, particularly for strip loins, top rounds, sirloin flap, and skirt steaks, while brisket prices are expected to decrease after St. Patrick's Day.
Chicken production is up from last year, but demand remains high with no signs of decline. Prices for chicken products, including wings, breasts, and tenderloins, are expected to increase next week. Concerns arise over a hatch rate below 80% in the past month, while three new cases of Avian Flu affecting 31,500 birds, mostly turkeys, serve as a reminder of ongoing risks.
Bellies closed slightly higher at $124 but with plentiful supply, a significant market increase seems unlikely. Butts stabilized after export-driven price hikes, while sold-out hams due to an early Easter may lead to a market decrease, leaving loins as the best protein value.
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Duration:00:03:50
Corned Beef & Cabbage & Inflation
3/8/2024
Beef harvest continues to stay steady, but well below average compared to last year. Top rounds are moving up quickly while middle meats, loins, and ribeyes continue a steady pattern moving up. Buy what you need.
The corn surplus is expected to support new biojet fuel technology, so we are not seeing it get below $4 as expected. Soy is holding steady and wheat continues the same story from the last couple of weeks.
Poultry pricing stayed pretty steady but should be moving up next week on all chicken products. Demand is strong. Only two new reports of Avian Flu were reported affecting 160 birds.
Bellies moved slightly higher, but we may see this market hang around the $120-125 range for a while. Butts are moving up, loins are a great value, and ribs continue to move higher.
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Duration:00:03:44
Leaping Towards Spring
3/1/2024
Grain prices are decreasing, which is good news for food processors and animal production.
Beef production is being reduced, which has caused prices to rise for most items except for ground beef, which is getting cheaper.
Chicken production is strong, and prices are unlikely to change in the coming weeks. However, eleven new cases of Avian Flu were reported, which affected 92k birds, mostly turkeys.
Finally, pork production is abundant, and there is plenty of product available. Of course, loins continue to be a great value.
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Duration:00:03:52
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
2/23/2024
Beef harvest is down for another week with expectations of going below 600k next week. Packers are lowering the harvest to keep inventories tight and push prices up. Next week should be a good buy opportunity. The next move will be higher prices for pretty much every item.
Chicken pricing continues on the current trend upward. Only two new cases of Avian Flu were reported, affecting 21,000 turkeys.
Corn is headed towards breaking that below $4 barrier. Soy is bouncing up and down. Wheat is moving lower.
Bellies closed just up from last week, but we still have a little more time before the big move higher starts. Butts are gaining more support, loins are still a great value, and ribs could actually get pricy moving into the summer.
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Duration:00:03:12
(Beef) Packers vs. Retailers
2/16/2024
Beef demand is not keeping up with beef production. Packers have more product than they can move without discounting and they have no interest in discounting. Buy what you need, there isn't much risk to the upside.
Wings continue to increase even after the Super Bowl. Breasts and tenderloins move higher as well. Demand is strong for fresh poultry and production is about on par with last year which will keep pushing chicken higher. Three new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 32,500 turkeys.
Corn closed at $4.19, the lowest it's been in four years. Grains are a bright spot in commodities.
Bellies closed at $1 lower than last week. This market shouldn't move much lower, so buy what you need. Loins are a great value, butts are steady, and ribs are showing great strength.
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Duration:00:03:36
Are You Ready for Some Chicken Wings?
2/9/2024
Beef demand is not strong. Harvest was up this week, but we shouldn't expect that to last. Buy what you need, you may find a bargain or two.
Chicken wings will hit their peak on Sunday, so pricing will move higher next week. Breasts are holding steady and tenders are moving up. Three new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 102,000 birds.
Corn is down again this week, which is great news. Soy is bouncing up and down and wheat is holding steady. Grains are in a favorable condition.
Bellies are down from last week. There should be a buy window soon, but it will only last a week or two before they start their seasonal move upward. Butts are lower, loins are steady, and ribs are showing some support. Pork production is strong. Always a great time to menu pork.
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Duration:00:03:32
Can Corn Go Even Lower?
2/2/2024
Starting with grains this week, corn is moving lower again and it's probably not done. This is good for everyone (except corn farmers). Soy and wheat are in the same mode.
Beef harvest is holding up pretty well, but retailers are not interested in beef at the elevated prices pushed by recent storms. Prices are moving lower on most items, except ground beef, which should continue through February. Still a buy-what-you-need strategy.
Only one new Avian Flu case was reported last week. In poultry, wings are moving higher, tenders are moving up, and breasts are holding steady. Production is about the same as last year and demand is good.
Bellies showed no change this week. They should decline into February. Loins are the best value in protein. Pork production is recovering nicely.
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Duration:00:04:26
Beef and Pork Bounce Back
1/26/2024
Beef production recovered nicely after the winter storm disruptions. Packers pushed pricing up pretty quickly, but this doesn't seem sustainable into February. The quick rise prices should move lower towards the end of the month, with middle meats being an exception as they have already bottomed out.
Chicken pricing is moving higher as expected. Production is about 1% higher over last year and the demand is on par. Five new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 313,000 birds.
Bellies are on the rise, but we're hoping to see a small buy window in February before prices move even higher this summer. Butts, ribs, and loins are all still a great value. Pork production rebounded nicely last week.
Grains are in good shape and the CME had a quiet week.
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Duration:00:03:36
Proteins on the Rise
1/19/2024
Multiple storms in the Midwest have turned the beef market a little more quickly than expected. The decline in the middle meats should last one more week. We'll most likely see increases in the last week of January. Next week is the time to buy middle meats, everything else is buy it now, it will cost more money later.
Chicken is up again for next week with wings, random breasts, and tenders all moving higher right up to the Super Bowl, but this year will be "reasonable" compared to previous years. On the Avian Flu front, it was a pretty quiet week. Let's hope for more continued good news there.
Bellies are up from last week, so if you were waiting to buy bacon in a declining market, you just missed it. Pricing will most likely continue to increase, but butts and loins are still a great value in pork.
Corn and soy harvests yielded more than we assumed. This has pushed pricing down. This will be an interesting market to watch this year.
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Duration:00:04:57
Winter Weather Halts Beef Production
1/12/2024
Bad winter weather in the Midwest had big effects on beef production. Two major packers idled plants completely and several were only running one shift. This will tighten availability. If you need middle meats, buy what you need. Other cuts will be better to buy sooner than later.
Chicken production was up slightly. Wings, breasts, and tenders are moving higher but chicken is still a good protein buy. Ten new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 1.6 million birds.
Pork bellies closed over $100 this week. With production slightly up and headcount slightly down, plenty of pork is still available at a good value.
There is plenty of corn for food, feed, and fuel. Soy demand is lacking, driving prices lower.
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Duration:00:03:39
New Year, Same Drama
1/5/2024
Happy New Year!
In the beef market, we are seeing the seasonal market correction for ribeyes and tenderloins begin. Buy what you need weekly knowing that next week will probably be a better value. Chucks, rounds, and grinds are moving in the exact opposite way.
Chicken pricing is moving higher this week with an expectation that this will continue. Only two new cases of Avian Flu were reported affecting 1,400 birds.
Bellies are moving higher and this will probably continue through winter, but pork is still a great value.
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Duration:00:03:36