The Downballot

Out of the blue, major Democratic players launched a bold new campaign to redraw Colorado’s congressional districts this week. On the latest episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Democrats are taking their plan directly to voters, what kinds of changes it would make to the map, and what the political hurdles and legal pitfalls look like. The Davids also discuss two Arizona Republicans who abandoned their campaigns for public office on back-to-back days last week, despite earning endorsements from Donald Trump—and why these twin dropouts show the growing limits of Trump’s influence on GOP primaries. Speaking of Trump, the hosts flag a special election coming up in his literal backyard: Next month, Democrats will have the chance to flip the Florida House district that includes none other than Mar-a-Lago. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

After her weak win in 2022, Kathy Hochul’s political future looked dicey. Now, though, New York’s governor has a clear ride through the Democratic primary and looks to be in strong shape in the general election, too. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore Hochul’s remarkable—and remarkably unexpected—bounceback, fueled by her eagerness to go head-to-head with Donald Trump. The Davids also recap a string of recent elections, including progressive activist Analilia Mejia’s stunning upset in New Jersey, a big win for Louisiana Democrats on rural turf, and another massive overperformance by a Democrat in a deep-red district in Oklahoma. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

While Democrats exulted after flipping a deep-red legislative seat in Texas on Saturday night, Republicans started panicking—and they should be. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard go deep to explain the many ways in which Taylor Rehmet’s shocking win is scary for the GOP. The good news for Republicans? There isn’t any. The Davids also break down the new fourth-quarter fundraising reports that House and Senate hopefuls just filed. On both fronts, Democrats are starting to bring races online that could expand the playing field, while lackadaisical GOP efforts risk doing the exact opposite. You can follow along with our newly published charts featuring data for more than 900 candidates. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Ordinary Americans in Minnesota have shown extraordinary courage in standing up to ICE’s terror campaign, and on Tuesday night, they just delivered another blow: at the ballot box. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore the results of an astonishing special election in St. Paul that set all kinds of records for Democrats—and shows that any attempt by Donald Trump to rig the midterms by deploying his goon squads could backfire very badly indeed. The Davids also chat with veteran election watcher Geoffrey Skelley, who is now chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ. Skelley tells us how DDHQ, long a source for results on election night, is expanding its coverage to give better context for all the data it produces. He also shares his thoughts on some high-leverage Senate primaries and explains some of the surprising reasons why House retirements have spiked in recent years. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Donald Trump’s redistricting wars are not over yet—not by a long shot. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard catch listeners up on the latest developments in every state where new maps are still in play, and there are quite a few. Some of the biggest questions: Will Virginia Democrats push the limits for a “10-1” map? Will infighting among Republicans in Florida doom the GOP’s hopes of a new gerrymander? And will a brand-new ruling out of New York that just struck down a red district withstand further legal scrutiny? We answer all these and more! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Co-host David Beard is joined by Nathaniel Rakich, managing editor of Votebeat, to talk through the big election news of the week. We cover Rep. Mary Peltola’s entry into the Alaska Senate race and what it means for Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate this fall. Then we discuss Rep. Steny Hoyer’s retirement after more than 45 years in Congress and the generational turnover House Democrats are experiencing. In our Deep Dive, Beard talks to Kansas Representative Sharice Davids and they discuss her consistent overperformances in a highly competitive district. Davids also discusses overcoming the Republican gerrymander that made her seat redder in 2022 and the GOP’s attempts at a new mid-decade gerrymander to make her seat even harder to win. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Not only was there no shortage of election news over the holidays, we've already had our first elections of the new year! On our newest episode of The Downballot podcast, which marks the start of our fifth season, we get you caught up on all the top stories from the past couple of weeks, including Elise Stefanik's shocking bailout, Tim Walz's unexpected departure, the death of a Republican congressman from California, and special election that just barely got away from Democrats in South Carolina. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

We are delighted to wrap up the year with our presentation of the Third Annual Downballot Awards! We celebrate both the highlights and the lowlights of a truly wild year. Who will win the honor for Funniest Cancellation of a Special Election? The Lighting Money on Fire Award? The Worst Understanding of State Laws? But it’s not just razzies: Tune in to learn who won our awards for Special Achievement in Stealth Politics, Generator of the Wildest Freakout, and the top accolade, Best Campaign—which we’ve now split into primary and general election categories! The most important honor, though, goes to you, our listeners, for your steadfast support all year long. We could not do this without you. We are truly grateful. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Georgia Democrats didn’t just flip a deep-red seat in a special election on Tuesday. They’ve also sent Republicans into a panic—in the Peach State and across the country. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explore Eric Gisler’s massive upset, what it means for next year’s elections in Georgia, and why the GOP may want to slow its roll on mid-decade redistricting. On that last topic, the Davids also sit down with Richard von Glahn of People Not Politicians Missouri, which just submitted more than 300,000 signatures to put the GOP’s new gerrymander up for a vote next year. Von Glahn gives us the nitty-gritty on how veto referendums work, all the ways Republican officials are trying to thwart the repeal effort, and how organizers are fighting back—in the courts and on the ground. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee’s deeply conservative 7th District yielded two things for Republicans: a win, and widespread panic. On The Downballot podcast this week, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why Democrat Aftyn Behn’s 13-point overperformance rightly has the GOP terrified. This was no sleepy, low-turnout affair. Voter participation was at midterm levels, which means that dozens of slightly bluer but still very red Republican seats could be in play next year. Look out! The Davids also chat with Lou Jacobson, the new senior author of one of the most seminal resources in the world of election nerdery: the Almanac of American Politics. Jacobson tells us how this massive, 2,000-page tome gets updated every two years, and how he’s bringing the Almanac into the digital era by offering updates on a new Substack site—including profiles of every freshly gerrymandered district in the country. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

How should Democrats capitalize on their massive success at the ballot box last week as they seek to retake Congress next year? This week on The Downballot podcast, we’re talking with John Ray, senior director of polling at YouGov Blue, about a fascinating polling experiment our two organizations ran that points a way forward: make the midterms a referendum on the GOP. Ray dives deep into the new data to explain why—and homes in on one especially compelling finding about the most persuadable voters. Also joining is political scientist Chris Galdieri, a professor at St. Anselm College and expert on the unusually volatile politics of swingy New Hampshire. Galdieri previews the state’s open Senate race and handicaps the suddenly feisty GOP primary. He also explores the fallout from Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s key role in ending the federal government shutdown—including how it might impact her own daughter’s House bid. And he answers the question, just how dead is the GOP’s push for mid-decade redistricting? Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Voters had their first major chance to deliver a verdict on Donald Trump’s second term on Tuesday night, and they issued a rebuke astonishing in its depth and breadth. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the election from every angle: Just how far did Latino voters move away from the GOP? Why are regular folks so much more inclined to stand up to Trumpism than elite institutions? What does it mean for 2026? And much, much more! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Election Day is finally here, so that means we’re previewing all of the top races on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast! Naturally, we check in on the marquee contests in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, but we also highlight some lesser-watched elections happening in places like Georgia, Maine, and Pennsylvania. And be sure to join us for our election night livestream with G. Elliott Morris of Strength In Numbers on Tuesday when the first polls close at 7 PM ET! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats have the chance to pull off a huge upset in an upcoming special election in Tennessee, so we invited one of the best-known political analysts in the state to join us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to give us the inside scoop: Justin Kanew, founder of the Tennessee Holler. Kanew, who ran for the previous version of the 7th District, explains how the district has changed since his campaign and tells us what Democrat Aftyn Behn needs to do to win over the conservative-leaning voters she’ll need in order to prevail. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into North Carolina’s latest Republican gerrymander, which is even more extreme than their last map. Can Democrat Don Davis survive despite the GOP’s effort to target him? Which district might he run for? And why can’t Gov. Josh Stein veto the new map? We answer all these questions and more. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Looking to see more “fightback” from Democrats? It’s happening all the time—at the state level. Joining us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast is Gaby Goldstein, the founder of State Futures, a new organization devoted to organizing Democratic state lawmakers. Gaby explains how her group fills a major infrastructure gap by helping Democrats share their best ideas for legislation, including new laws to protect labor rights and voting rights, all aimed at fighting back—vigorously—against Donald Trump. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on two New England Senate primaries that experienced major shakeups this week. In Maine, establishment favorite Janet Mills has acknowledged concerns about her age as she seeks to take on Susan Collins, but the Democratic primary offers a perfect “shakedown cruise” before the ultimate battle. And in Massachusetts, Seth Moulton just issued a generational challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, but the incumbent’s liberal bona fides will be hard to match. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

All 100 seats in the Virginia House are up next month, but Democrats think they’re in a strong position to expand their narrow majority. Joining us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to explain why is Del. Dan Helmer, who heads up his caucus’ campaign arm. Helmer points to the pain Virginia’s large federal workforce has experienced at Republican hands—thanks to DOGE and now the shutdown—and notes that Democrats have recruited candidates in every district for the first time in living memory. He also highlights the districts that Democrats are defending as well as the much larger number of GOP-held seats they’re targeting. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap Tuesday’s primaries in Tennessee’s vacant 7th Congressional District and explore how and why Democrats just might be able to pull off an upset despite the seat’s strong conservative lean. They also dive into the GOP’s Senate primary in Texas, where a new entrant threatens to make life even more miserable for the Republican establishment—and maybe himself, too. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Rob Sand may be the last remaining Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, but as he wages a bid for governor, he lays out a compelling case for why the state is purpler than you might think on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, which thrust him onto the national radar; how he hung on to win reelection as auditor by just 3,000 votes in 2022, even as all his fellow Democrats lost; and why Iowans are especially fed up after a decade of one-party rule, giving him an opening next year. He also shares his love of cartograms—those maps that depict population rather than area. After all, land doesn’t vote! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Polling is more difficult than ever, particularly in a city as complicated and diverse as New York. Adam Carlson, founding partner at Zenith Research, joins us to discuss how he conducted a detailed poll of the New York City mayor’s race and how he views the state of that race now. We also get his take on the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as well as Prop 50 in California and take a peek at 2026.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss the current moves to gerrymander Kansas and how that might launch a serious Democratic challenger into the Senate race there. They also discuss the Wisconsin governor’s race, where a hardline conservative Republican has jumped in and the D.C. delegate race, where Eleanor Holmes Norton has her first serious challenger in years. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Digital advertising is an increasingly important part of every political campaign, but it turns out tons of money gets wasted on, well, crap. Myles Bugbee, the founder of Persuasion & Pixels, joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain how middlemen in this opaque new world extract money from advertisers without adding any value—and how campaigns can avoid common pitfalls. Republicans have already learned some important lessons, but Democrats, Bugbee says, are still playing catch-up. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also explore the brand-new candidacy of Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, whose bid for a House seat in South Texas has Democrats hopeful he can help reverse the party's losses with Latinos. They discuss party-switcher Jeff Duncan, who's now running for governor of Georgia as a Democrat after serving as lieutenant governor as a Republican. And they check in on former Rep. Wiley Nickel, a past guest on the program who just launched a bid for a powerful district attorney's post. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe