GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution

Did Israel’s failure to anticipate Hamas’s surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institution’s Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israel’s intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace it’s portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the public’s view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of “Austrian school” economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John don’t like their chances).

Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that America’s immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iran’s not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his “swinging 60s”—Hoover’s “international man of history” officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded.

As the six-month anniversary of Hamas’s attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggle—and is the American president and Israeli prime minister’s working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the war’s possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephens’s vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellows’ “shelter-in place” debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didn’t see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemic’s legacy.

Facing hot wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and a prolonged cold war in East Asia, how does America adapt its military strategy and resources—and in which direction? Elbridge Colby, former Defense Department assistant secretary and cofounder of the Marathon Initiative, which studies great-power competition, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss his contention that rearming America’s military in anticipation of an eventual Chinese move on Taiwan takes priority over conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. Following that: the fellows weigh in on the merits of a forced sale of TikTok by its Chinese owners, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s calling for an early election in Israel, plus how to find one’s soulmate offline (plot spoiler: try attending an intellectual “slap up” dinner, or getting concussed in a rugby match).

Following Super Tuesday’s results, with the US presidential election still the better part of eight months away, a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is all but certain. Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institution’s Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released book The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss where Biden and Trump stand on “shrinkflation” and the US economy, America’s involvement in overseas conflicts, plus the likelihood of Democrats replacing a struggling Biden at their August national convention and Trump running a disciplined campaign despite his legal travails.

Why did Vladimir Putin call for an “inter-Palestinian meeting” in Moscow? And has Israel drawn a red line regarding a hostage release and an assault on the Gazan city of Rafah? Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast and author of two books on Israel, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson (live from Jerusalem) and John Cochrane to discuss the moving parts and global ramifications of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that: remembering the late Alexei Navalny and what the future holds for Russian political opposition amid Putin-brand fascism; America’s “trust” credit rating as it reneges on promises to friends and allies; plus George Washington’s recent demotion to third-greatest of all US presidents.

While the American reprisal against Iranian proxies across the Middle East is impressive in its harnessing of firepower, technology, and intelligence, does it advance the goals of deterrence and de-escalation? Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the pros and cons of the current US strategy and their concerns over the lack of an apparent end game. Following that: a conversation about Donald Trump’s appeal to voters and his detractors’ inability to understand his populist resonance (the subject of a recent John Cochrane Wall Street Journal op-ed); how best to revitalize African nations; plus Niall’s annual abhorrence of Super Bowl Sunday (spoiler alert: he’s not a “Swiftie”).

This installment of GoodFellows is devoted to audience questions—viewers and listeners putting Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster through their intellectual paces. Among the topics broached: a possible re-embrace of Western heritage; the same pre–World War I mentality that dismissed the likelihood of a global conflict potentially enabling a third world war; India and Pakistan’s economic and geostrategic outlooks; Donald Trump’s second-term objectives, should he be reelected; and Argentinian president Javier Milei’s pro-market “shock therapy” and his World Economic Forum “special address” dressing down Davos attendees. Viewers also asked: Why not a fellows’ blues band? Might Niall consider adding a little profanity to his profundity?

The new year begins with a continuation of three topics that figured prominently in 2023: escalating hostilities in the Middle East; a possible return to more traditional higher education after shake-ups at several elite American universities; plus the uncertainty of certain economic assumptions (in 2023, a much-prophesied recession that never materialized). Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane also discuss the odds of Cold War 2 morphing into World War III; whether economic conditions will overshadow fearmongering in a grim Trump-Biden referendum (in Niall’s words: the choice of “empire or republic”); the best use of this leap year’s spare day; plus why King Charles III would choose to break with tradition by spending a “dry” January in a very wet Scotland.

Failing to unequivocally denounce students’ calls for Jewish genocide has cost one university president her job and raises questions as to whether the current levels of anti-Semitic vitriol and political activism inside America’s elite schools suggests parallels to Nazi Germany. Bari Weiss, founder of the Free Press and host of the Honestly podcast, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss when and why America’s universities went astray and how to separate scholarship from political agendas.

As the US prepares for a presidential vote (Iowans caucusing in fewer than 50 days) and a temporary truce halts the Israel-Hamas conflict, long-term uncertainty seems the order of the day. Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal political columnist and the “architect” behind George W. Bush’s presidential runs, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss the odds of a Biden-Trump rematch. Next the three fellows analyze the latest in the Middle East, including the peril of a broader regional conflict and the potential for eradicating Hamas. Finally, a “lightning round“ explores Vladimir Putin’s peace overtures, Sam Altman’s return to OpenAI, an ascendant Right on two continents, plus the legacy of the soon-to-be-touring Rolling Stones (Niall having no sympathy for any devil who doesn’t recognize the Stones as the greatest rock band).

Two conflicts present two challenges: a Ukrainian counteroffensive turned stalemate; and Israel’s survival as it confronts Hamas (and possibly Hezbollah and Iran). Russ Roberts, Hoover’s John and Jean De Nault Research Fellow and president of Jerusalem’s Shalem College, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss Israel’s morale and strategic choices amid a month-long wartime crisis. Then Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US Army Europe, makes the case for anticipating a positive outcome—Ukraine expelling Russian forces, winning back its land—in a war nearing its 21-month mark.

Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schools’ role in the quest for better outcomes. What lessons does a virtues-based public charter high school in New York City offer to the ideal of education as a path to life success? Ian Rowe, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow and cofounder of the Bronx-based Vertex Partnership Academies, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss the future of public education and charter schools’ role in the quest for better outcomes. After that: Niall and John weigh in on the potential for economic turmoil in a time of global instability; a hypothetical outsider as House Speaker; plus their like and dislike of the Olympic Games.

As Israel and Ukraine struggle for survival, a newer “axis of ill will”—formed by Russia, China and Iran—sows discord around the globe. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institution’s Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and a vaunted historian, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to assess options abroad and parallels to the past (are we reliving the 1930s, the 1970s, or both?). The trio then dons their speechwriters’ hats to suggest how President Biden can capture the moral high ground. The trio then discusses how President Biden can capture the moral high ground when he makes public statements about the crisis and America’s response to it.

Recorded live at the Hoover Institution’s fall retreat: Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane discuss unfolding events in the Middle East—Israel’s response, failures in intelligence gathering, plus America’s strategic choices vis-à-vis a complicit Iran. The trio then reflects on what an anti-Israeli backlash on the campuses of America’s elite universities—students and faculty denouncing the initial victims as aggressors, university leaders offering only lackluster “word salads”—says about the current state of higher education in the United States.

The US Supreme Court seems headed for a showdown with social media platforms over content and censorship; the United Nations’ 78th General Assembly underscores that body’s inability to curb totalitarian aggression. Eugene Volokh, a soon-to-be Hoover Institution senior fellow and a First Amendment law professor at UCLA, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss free speech in the Information Age and what comes next for universities following the court’s rebuke of race-factored admissions. This is followed by Niall and John discussing whether 20th-century international agencies remain true to their charters. On a lighter note, John and Niall also weigh in on government-run groceries, dress codes, and tipping servers (waiters yes, baristas no).

In a special “mailbag” episode, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer viewers’ questions, ranging from global geopolitics to American domestic affairs. Among the topics: Is China headed for an economic or military tipping point? What do the commentariat make of doomsaying Cassandras? And would two of the GoodFellows follow their colleague to the White House?

Former president Donald Trump faces at least four criminal trials that could overshadow the Republicans’ presidential nominating process—and maybe fatally wound him in a general election—while a legal cloud hangs over President Biden due to an ongoing investigation into his son’s business affairs. Andrew McCarthy, a National Review contributing editor and former federal prosecutor, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how “lawfare” became a weaponized part of American politics and the corrosive effects it’s having on national elections and institutional trust.

On the 78th anniversary of the only wartime use of nuclear weapons, is the human race at another moral crossroads, fearing what artificial intelligence (AI) breakthroughs might unleash? Fei-Fei Li, co-director of Stanford University’s Institute for Human-Centered AI, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss AI’s promise and peril, followed by the three “GoodFellows” revisiting Harry Truman’s decision to drop the bombs in 1945. Just as crucial to mankind’s future: they debate the likely winner in an as-yet-unscheduled MMA bout pitting Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg against X’s Elon Musk.

This week, the self-moderating GoodFellows (Bill Whalen is on vacation) ponder why the much predicted recession hasn’t materialized—at least not yet. The Fellows also discuss the national security implications of a recession and why some economists may be a little too optimistic about economic conditions in the near future. Then, we check back in on the war in Ukraine and close with some thoughts about summer, featuring a cameo appearance from General Funkenstein himself.