Talking Geopolitics

Following the 2026 Munich Security Conference, the transatlantic alliance appears to be at a crossroads. With the Russian threat failing to manifest and the U.S. shifting its strategic focus, is the "divorce" between these old allies inevitable, or is it a necessary evolution? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to examine why the U.S. views European reliance as exploitation rather than obligation, and to explore whether Europe can finally overcome its fragmented history to build a unified defense capability. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

At January's World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the old world order is not coming back. He went on to say that we are now in an era of great power rivalry, and that middle powers, like Canada, should come together to counter the rise of great powers. So what could the new order look like, and just how much influence can middle powers wield compared to the U.S. and China? They may be smaller by GDP standards but they are not without importance geopolitically. In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss it all, to examine why the U.S. and Canada can't just decouple from one another, and what will happen to Cuba now that it has reached a tipping point in its economy and its defense. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

This week, leaders from Russia, Ukraine and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi for another round of peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine; a conflict which has continued for four years this month. After so much fighting, what does Russia still hope to get out of negotiations, and is it willing to concede after not reaching its goals? Russia's economy has suffered immensely as a result of the war and by several measures simply can no longer be considered a major power on the world stage. To discuss the upcoming negotiations, where Europe stands on it all and how parallels can also be drawn between the current conflict and the Vietnam War, Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

Earlier this month, Geopolitical Futures released its annual Forecast, which focuses on the most critical changes to the international order in the year to come. One of the featured predictions in this year's Forecast was on the shifting relationship between the United States and China. It is a relationship that GPF Chairman George Friedman believes will define the next generation of international relations. This week on Talking Geopolitics, George joined host Christian Smith to give a preview of this forecast, and we'll even dive into the perplexing logic of Donald Trump's will-he, won't-he attempt to take ownership of Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

Widespread anti-government protests in Iran have been growing for weeks now in Iran, and the government crackdown has turned deadly. While protests here are not a new phenomenon, many are saying this time things are much different. With the US poised to intervene and the future of the Iranian regime hanging in the balance, this week on the podcast we're taking a look at how the situation is evolving and how it is perceived by the wider region. Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman as well as Geopolitical Futures contributing analyst Kamran Bokhari to break it all down. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

With the new U.S. National Security Strategy published by the White House only a month ago, we're already seeing what America's vision for prioritizing securing the Western Hemisphere looks like. Following America's seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, the world is now questioning just how far the current administration might go to secure that Western Hemisphere. What are its intentions with Cuba, and how far is it willing to push NATO allies in the issue of Greenland? GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith for our first podcast of the new year, as we dive into what is going on in the Western Hemisphere. You'll also get a sneak peek into our predictions for China, as part of our upcoming 2026 Forecast. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. policy. It prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, while avoiding military competition with China as well as European conflicts. At the same time the White House has taken pen to paper on its new policy, military pressure on Venezuela is ramping up as the Trump administration sanctions oil tankers in the region. This week on Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss these escalations and what it all has to do with Cuba. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. strategy. The policy, published at the end of last week, prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, avoiding military competition with China and asking Europe to stand on its own feet. Many of these policies are not surprising. But the White House's decision to commit them to paper has given the world a more definitive view of American thinking. This week on Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is again joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to break down the strategy, what it means for the U.S. and the world, and whether it is an ideological shift or just natural geopolitics in the 21st century. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

In his book, The Storm Before the Calm, Geopolitical Futures chairman and founder George Friedman explained the challenges that low birth rates and longer life expectancy will bring to America. As an aging population causes a shrinking workforce, this deepening demographic crisis could have long-term impacts across the globe. And the solutions come with their own set of challenges. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, George joins host Christian Smith to break it all down, from the use of immigration to stabilize labor markets, to artificial intelligence and much more. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

[REUPLOAD] If the peace proposal currently under negotiation to end the war in Ukraine feels like déjà vu, you're not alone. Throughout the year, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have repeatedly surged and faded. But with the surprising terms of the latest proposal now on the table—and U.S. President Donald Trump hinting that this may be a "now or never" moment—the world is asking whether a real path to peace finally exists. Is the deal workable? How are Europe's leaders responding? And what fundamentals of the war risk being overlooked amid the political noise? Joining host Christian Smith to break down the proposal, assess the geopolitical dynamics shaping the negotiations, and explore the evolving economic relationship between the US and Russia and China is GPF Chairman George Friedman. And for more analysis of the region, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucusus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments. And for more analysis of the region, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

The Australian defense minister said this week that China's military defense build up required a response. China's defense spending has increased 13 fold in the past 30 years, while its Navy is projected to grow by nearly 50% by the end of the decade. That last statistic would be of particular concern to Australia's defense minister, Richard Marles, who said that open sea lanes, including around China, are crucial to Australia's national security. So how is great power competition playing out in the Asia-Pacific? What is the role of Australia, AUKUS and the Quad, and can America's allies trust the US and its nuclear umbrella to be there as it seeks to disengage from the world. Host Christian Smith is with GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss this and much more. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

The United States, China and Russia are the three main powers of the current era that are vying for dominance on the global stage, all with their own sets of imperatives and challenges. In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman examined the three nations and the main issues they currently face: culture wars and political division in the US, a declining economy in China, and a frozen war in Russia. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

"Twelve out of ten." That's how President Trump described this week's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping—a bold rating for one of the most consequential diplomatic encounters in years. But what really came out of it? Was this the start of a new trade understanding or just another pause in a brewing confrontation between two global powers? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman, speaking from The Citadel in South Carolina, where he's a keynote speaker at an open-source intelligence conference. They unpack the U.S.–China meeting - from tariffs to rare earths -, the fragile economics behind Beijing's export-driven model, and how these developments connect to Friedman's long-term forecast from his book The Next 100 Years. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

In recent weeks, tensions between the US and Venezuela have been growing. At least five US military strikes have targeted boats in the Caribbean under the auspice of intercepting illicit drug traffic, and US President Donald Trump has said that he has authorized the CIA to use lethal force in Venezuela. And the issue doesn't end there, now there is wider involvement from Europe and elsewhere. GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith on this episode of Talking Geopolitics to dive into what's really going on, how it ties into the Monroe Doctrine - the policy relating to affairs in the Western Hemisphere - and what Russia's role in all of it is. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

As GPF Chairman George Friedman has written about in recent months, the United States is trying to reduce its exposure in foreign conflicts. With the US now entering its third week of a government shutdown, the nation has its own set of crises to work through, while Trump is also working to broker peace in Gaza and a trade agreement with China. How does the current situation fit within the framework of institutional and socioeconomic cycles, as described in George's most recent book, The Storm Before the Calm? And where does President Trump fit into it all? Host Christian Smith is back on the podcast with Dr. Friedman to discuss the US and the historic shifts of the 2020s. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s and Its Historic Shift, including his updated forecast for Poland, Turkey and Japan.

Two years ago this week, Hamas' October 7 attacks stunned Israel and the world. And now for the first time there is palpable excitement that the war in Gaza may be on the path to an end. The first part of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan seems to have been agreed by Israel and Hamas, though the plan still faces many hurdles. Geopolitical Futures Chairman and Founder George Friedman has joined host Christian Smith on this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics to discuss how we got here, whether the plan will work and also why the Gulf states are so important to the plan's success. This interview was recorded on Thursday, October 9th 2025. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

In his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, GPF Chairman George Friedman forecasted that Turkey would become the major power in the Middle East. As Trump draws down on US involvement abroad, Putin gets bogged down in Russia, and Israel is distracted in Gaza, Turkey is spying opportunities. While Turkey's dominance has been on the rise despite its own internal instability, Saudi Arabia on the other side of the region has been giving it a run for its money. In this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari to discuss all this as well as the latest developments out of Israel following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's public apology to Qatar. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s and Its Historic Shift, including his updated forecast for Poland, Turkey and Japan.

Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s and Its Historic Shift, including his updated forecast for Poland, Turkey and Japan.

GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari recently wrote that massive geopolitical change has come to the Middle East in the form of the attack on Gaza, a weakening of Iran, paralyzing of Hezbollah, the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria and much more. Considering all these developments and the way in which Israel's actions are driving events in the region, Dr. Bokhari was back on the Club's Podcast+ with host Christian Smith to discuss Israel's wider strategy and what he predicts for the future. Recorded Thursday, September 11, 2025. This clip is part of a full-length episode available to our ClubGPF members. To find out more about ClubGPF, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com/joinclubgpf.